All right, everybody, it's Saturday. R J bel pregame dot com. But first, my blazing five picks don't want to go into detail, but I've struggled recently. Here you go, let's blaze it off. Fired up, it's Collins Blazing five Colt sits Steelers. I'm gonna take the Colts minus one and a half year. First of all, I think they're playing for a division Houston, and the Colts playing for that division Jacksonville, Tennessee, not far behind, So there's a real sense of urgency for the Colts. James Connor. They're running back, not practicing for the Steelers, so now they won't be able to run the ball, and they have an incredibly limited passing offense. Steelers twenty eighth in the league in offense. By the way, the Colts used to be an Andrew Luck story. Now they're a defensive story. Their defense in October fifth and points allout eighth and sacks tied for fifth and third down percentage. I think they're very well coached. They're in a three game winning streak, and their defense is playing excellent football. I think the Colts go on the road and they beat the Steelers. Twenty six to twenty three Detroit and Oakland. This is a game that is interesting. Oakland has not played at home for a long time right their schedule, so Oakland and a fan base are gonna be crazy. Detroit Matt stafford this report. He's sick, has a cold, not going in full strength. Detroit's beat up physically. Meanwhile, the Raiders think about this, think how tough their schedule has been. The Bears in London, at Houston, at Indie, at Green Bay, most travel geographically in the league, and here they are pretty darn good football team. And all I gotta gives up give up is less than a field goal. The Detroit Lions are great in the first quarter, they are dreadful everywhere else. Twenty second in second quarter scoring twentieth and third quarter scoring, twenty eighth in fourth quarter scoring. Derek Carr in the last month has been on fire. He's in a group with John Gruden, completing seventy one percent of his throws. The Raiders win by a touchdown. Good to have him back in the Bay area. Thirty one twenty four Cleveland and Denver. One of my bets of the year. I'll take Cleveland to blow out. The Broncos take the Browns minus three and a half. Denver has nothing to play for. They're starting a quarterback Brandon Allen who's never taken an NFL snap. It's one of the worst offensive lines and maybe the worst left tackle in the NFL. And Cleveland's defense is as healthy as it's been all year. The Broncos have allowed twenty seven sacks, bottom six in the league. The Browns top six in sacks. This is a pop gun offense. Now with a backup quarterback Nick Chubb will take the pressure off Baker. Cleveland goes into town runs the football dominates. I think Denver's gonna struggle to get first downs, thirty three to ten Browns and an utter blowout, and you'll see it early. Green Bay in Los Angeles. It's actually a home game for the Packers. It is They're are suggesting it will be the most lob sided rogue crowd in the chargers brief history in their stadium. Eighty percent Packer fans. I'll take Green Bay minus three and a half. Listen, this is one of these picks. Years ago, if I got a home team Philip Rivers and Oprah field goal, you'd always take the Chargers. Their offensive line is weak, they can't run the ball. Philip Rivers is now an older, unathletic quarterback. I mean, they just struggle to get consistent yards. Green Bay best defense in years, best running game in years, now gets Davante Adams back. Aaron Rodgers last two weeks without him been absolutely on fire, leads the league in ten interception ratio and passer raiding. Philip Rivers last week through for two hundred yards, and by the way, that's getting the ball in good field position because Trabisky can't move the chains. I like the Packers to win this game twenty seven to twenty three. I do think the Chargers will make a game of it, but I'm gonna swallow the three and a half and take Aaron Rodgers and the Vante Adams back. New England and Baltimore. I'm gonna take the Patriots. Don't overthink the room on this. Baltimore's big win is Seattle. I'm not sure how good Seattle is. I gotta be honest. They're like a football away from not battling for fourth in their division. Yippie. They beat Cincinnati. Baltimore's a good team. They're not a special team. Lamar Jackson is fun and can run like crazy, but New England controls the football. Mohammed Sanu, Edelman, Jacobe Myers, middle of the field, and New England's defense is first in everything. Don't outthink the room here. Patriots have twenty one straight games against first or second year quarterbacks. They've won. New England's going to control the ball, middle of the field. Take a lead. Now it's in Baltimore. It's gonna be crazy, but just don't outthink the room here, young quarterback against the great defense. Now with Mohammed Sanu, there's more of an identity with New England's offense here. This is an easy three to swallow. I like Lamar. This is a tough spot here. New England thirty, Baltimore twenty three. Swallow the points. Also Baltimore's defense here that this is not Baltimore revolt. Their offense is far more productive than their defense. Brady is going to have time to throw in this game. He didn't have time to throw against Cleveland last week. He'll have time this week to throw. And I like the Patriots to win hand to cover all right. RJ hosts straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio six to seven. Listen to it all the time, by the way, you get all sorts of good information. All right, let's start with this Indianapolis minus one at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh. Now, I don't know what kind of running game they're gonna have because James Conner's all banged up, and I think it's a limited passing game to begin with. And frankly, I like Indianapolis's defense, I like their coach, I like their offensive line. You know, minus one feels like a pickum. I just think the Colts win a close game. What are the wise guys thing? Okay, I'm giving you agreement, RJ's agreement, though most wise guys, most sharps would disagree here. Okay, as a Steelers fan, I follow this team very close. They I question their motivation in this spot. You might say, wait a minute, they're at home. They're a home underdog. Listen, this team's exceeded expectations. They've had some wins you wouldn't necessarily expect. And when they get fat and happy. You saw it on Monday night. They barely can't Well, they got to thirteen, but they were in a bad spot in that game. And this feels like a situation where it's home and home. The team can be a little lax. I wonder about motivation, though, I think anyone who doesn't follow this team would say, boy, that doesn't sound right. We'll watch. I'll be interested to see it. Now, let's talk about the Coats injuries. Early in the year, They've had some decimated games, games where you almost got to throw them out because they hadn't missed so many players. What ends up happening, Colin is those teams have become underrated because you're looking at the score saying, oh, they got beat by Houston or whatever, and it's well, I guess in that case they beat a Houston, But you look at the situation and you think, oh, this is the truth of the team. But it's really not because those games they were so injured. Now, I thought that might have been the case this week, but they had four key defensive players. The Coats did come back on Thursday's practice, but one concern. T Y Hilton did miss Thursday's practice. He is key to this team. So all that being said, motivationally, especially, I'm gonna agree with you with the coach. I'd say the wise guys in general would be more on the home dog. All right, I'm gonna take Oakland minus two. I think the Raiders here a little undervalued. RJ. First of all, their travel schedule has been daunting, and their schedule schedule has been tough at at Indie, is not easy at Green Bay, at Houston, and I gotta tell you they have won or been in these games. I think the Raiders now minus two, first time home in a while. I think they're undervalued. And I think Detroit is frankly easier schedule, a little overvalued. So I flipped on this early in the week. I liked the Lions, but the more I dig I'm kind of impressed when John Gruden what he's overcome with a schedule and the travel. I'll take the Raiders here. Okay, agreement on this one. This is sharp, I think for you, because I don't think it's obvious. I gotta be honest. Though. Recently I was listening to your podcast, yes, and one of the things is it flips over to like a year ago if you if you fall asleep and you listen through, and I heard you in July of eighteen. Just this week when I woke up and it was like, it's a dumpster fire. Gruden's gonna be a dumpster fire. So I give you credit. What do you think has changed? Well, I mean I think you know, my thing with him was ten years out of the league, too much noise. But the Raiders are a noisy franchise. Gruden. I think it's done a good job to relate to players. I think he has made the game easier for Derek Carr. And let's be honest, from his free agent acquisitions to his draft picks on the offensive side. He knows that side. Now all questions some of their draft picks on the defensive side, but RJ, They've got nice offensive personnel. I gotta be honest. I think you're right on. And I also think what we're seeing is the league is dropping off with the quality of coaching. This is something Michael Lombardi's talked about. Where Belichick he's in his mid six season. Beyond that's think about Tom Land You at that point, think about Chuck Noll. Jimmy Johnson was retired, which coach has excelled at this age, and he's getting better. If you look at the against the spread record, which is the way to major it. He's better the last five years, Belichick. So what does that mean to this game? A guy like Gruden, whatever he was ten years ago, he might even be better now relative to the rest of the league. All Right, Raiders. Strength the schedule, you said it third best in the NFL. A lot of tough ones. Casey in they had to play Chicago at London at that time. Chicago we liked, Oh for sure. Chicago was favored by six points in that game. Think about it after Denver, Casey, Minnesota, Indy, Chicago, Green Bay, Houston. What's the easy game there? I mean Troy, Yeah, exactly, that's a great one. Last thing, Detroit is banged Slay may or may not play. And since they lost running back Johnson last week, for example, twenty five carries fifty nine yards. They cannot run the ball. And Stafford has the flu and they said he's horse. He can hardly talk a row team without a quarterback that can show is a problem. You'll be hearing about that more coming up this weekend. I think agreement Raiders one of my favorite bets, maybe of the year. I'll take Cleveland minus three at Denver. The Browns defense is healthy. Their defensive line gave Brady troubles and Russell Wilson and Jared Goff okay against a rookie quarterback in Denver and kind of an anequated offensive coach in Vic Fangio and a bad offensive line with a tremendously week left tackle. I think this game gets ugly. I think the defensive front for Cleveland, very early in this game establishes utter dominance. This is an easy minus three delay. I love the Browns. What are the wise guys think? Oh? You me to you said easy, and I'm like, oh, okay, But I will say this, this is a game that I didn't see it until I started digging into it for you, Meaning I looked at and go, oh, I don't want to bet the Browns, and oh, I don't want to bet Denver, And in my mind I kind of moved on the first time through. I think you're onto something here actually, and we're probably gonna use this in the super contest. Here's my thinking the Road Favorites. The biggest problem is complacency. Oh or you're going to get a full motivation. One of the things we talked about over the years is how off of Bye Road Favorites are great because off of bye, you got motivation. Well, Cleveland's got off a bye, but you know they're motivated here right number two Kitchens. He seems to be a liability, but its Fangio necessarily going to be the guy to exploit that. I don't know. I don't think so. Also, this Browns defense early in the year, you remember against the Rams, very unhealthy. They have gotten healthier. So there's some of that that the prior scores might be a little skewed because the defense, especially for the Browns, were so injured. Strength ist schedule, hardest in the NFL, hardest, Cleveland last five weeks, Rams, Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle, New England. Think about that for a second. Finally, I liked I'll be candid, I liked the Coats. Last week when Denver covered against him, I questioned the motivation of Denver. They were motivated. But now a backup quarterback, six round pick, and he has the smallest hands in the NFL. I expect at least one fumble from Brandon Allen agreement Browns. I'm taking a lot of favorites this week. I'm gonna take Green Bay. Now, the numbers minus three and a half, which which leads me to believe a lot of the gumshoe toilet paper on the shoe guys will love it. But it comes down to something. I watched a lot of Chargers football. Their offensive lines bad, their quarterbacks on athletic, they just can't pick up yards. Here they are a team that can't really move the ball consistently, and it starts with their offense of line. I think Green Bay's gonna be It's essentially I mean Aaron Rodgers has a house, lives in Los Angeles. Actually, most of the year they'll have ninety eighty percent crowd. I think again, this could get ugly. I'll lay the three and a half, and I know that number. A lot of those guys, the old old school wise guys, will love it. But this is an easy lay for me here. I'll take the Packers minus three and a half. Yeah, the old school guys are gonna say home dog, Home dog. But here's the thing. This might be the least valuable home field game of the season. Yeah, I think it's right there because green Bay travels while Chargers historically now since they've been in LA, not a great home field. Now they're not winning, So it's even less enthusiasm, less than zero as some would say, so to me, it even goes beyond that. My concern is green Bay on the road. As you talked about a few weeks ago, Aaron Rodgers and his career is right around five hundred. The Cowboy win brought him to five hundred. That's amazing that it's so poor for an all time quarterback. Also, though, I think Green Bay feels this momentum and when a team feels excited because they're doing so well, they tend to keep doing it because the road favorite spot is where they might let up just a little bit. And this Chargers team, you think, oh, they gotta win finally. Last week against the Bears, they were outgained by one hundred and fifty yards. The Bears had not gained on offense over three hundred yards the entire season, and they did and well passed it against the Chargers and they just fired their OC Wizzen Hunt gone. Now do you really think that coaching staff can really? You know, when Belichick let someone go or someone has to leave, he might slide in and take over. You don't want that with a Chargers head coach. So to me. That's a type of disruption that's significant. I hate being on with the average fan. The average fans are gonna go green Bay's easy. I think they're right here, agreement green Bay. Finally we have a bonus pick. But finally, so I've gotten a lot of agreement with you this week so far. In fact, let's see Indie agreement. Oh good lord, this may be four and one or five and oh agreement. I think we're going crazy on Baltimore. I like them. I think their schedule gets a lot harder. New England only has to swallow three. New England's defense eats a live young quarterbacks. Well, why would Lamar be different? Because he can run, He's still going to have to make throws to win this football game. And this is the best secondary of my adult life. It's great and deep and sward their linebackers. I expect Baltimore to be frenzied at home and make it competitive. But boy, you're you're just giving me here a defense that Lamar Jackson is going to be. My belief confused a lot. I'll lay I'll swallow the three here. I'll take New England minus three. What are the wise guys think Now this would be another example of agreement for me. Many wise guys, Pazik my guy on this right out of Vegas show on pregame. Also, he actually has the best bet on Baltimore. But let's physic's one of those dudes that knows he's making a mistake, but he still makes it because because there's some kind of principle above that he cares, and his principle above here is okay, Baltimore off a bye. Now let's give hardball credit eleven and two straight up, nine and four against the spread after a buye he prepares well with extra time. Lamar is still a young quarterback, disadvantage against Belichick, but an advantage I have to buy and a few gadget plays perhaps for hardball. Now, what does Belichick do? He takes away what you do best. He makes you play left handed, that's the phrase he uses. Well, what's that going to be for Lamar? Lamar running comes naturally. Passing he's doing better, not his first instinct. So I expect Belichick the force and me and Jeanie was on f one talking about this. He will worst Lamar to throw my prop bet. I love love love over passing yards for Lamar Jackson hasn't come out yet. We think it's gonna be around two oh five. If it's in that range, I love the over. The question is can Lamar succeed? I don't really think so. I agree with the Pats here. One last thing. This is kind of pheasic going against logic in my opinion, but that's why we have fun on the show. Since two thousand and one, the Patriots are sixty percent against the spread. No other teams above fifty five. Betting against them means that the internal, the specific factors of this game would have to have. You have like thirteen percentage points. You got to go all the way to Belichick only winning forty seven percent from sixty to even break even if you're betting the other way because of the Viig. So to me, if history tells you over twenty years almost he wins sixty percent of the time, why not just say Patriots or pass every game from here on? Yeah? No, I mean, it's all I know is this New England may have some identity issues on offense. I think they solve some of them with Mohammed Sanou, who, like Gronk, is a middle of the field receiver. So I think between Edelman, Jacoby Myers, and Sanou they found an identity in their passing game, which is middle of the field. And I still don't think Baltimore's defense is great RJ. I think Marcus Peters helps, but it's a pretty average defense with not a very sustainable or consistent pass rush. Brady's going to have time to throw. Well, listen, Peters McVeigh is the boy genius right now. I know you are a Shanahan guy, but let's just call both of them top ten coaches, top eight coaches. They just let this guy go for what a fifth round pick? How good can he? I mean, how much can he add to the team? And the only good Ravens performance on d was against Seattle. It was one game. And let me say the last thing the wrap things up to me. If five years ago you would say there's a guy on the radio and he's gonna pick five games a week and he's gonna hit fifty even fifty five percent, I know you've been above that. I would bet literally my biggest bet of the year on the no. So I think what people got to realize is the level of difficulty of picking five games it's so much harder than picking two or three, because, let's be honest, you usually have the three you really like. Yes, four and five's tough. So the fact that you're going back and forth during the week is just a sign of honesty. Anyone that acts like these are five clear picks every week, they're just lyne Finally, I give a bonus pick on Saturday, I'd probably you know, I've always had this fascination with Tennessee. I do think they're well coached. They're getting four at Carolina. It's a number. I think it's a close game Carolina. I do think humiliated play as well. I'm kind of going against what I usually think, which is good team gets humiliated Carolina, they bounce back and play well. I take Tennessee plus four, but I wouldn't put it in my blazing five. I didn't feel strongly about it. What would the wise guys say? I personally, and I think most wise guys would say Carolina here though some just our dog, dog dog all the time. Pretty much. Listen. Tennessee was out game by one hundred and forty three yards against Tampa. Yah, so it goes up as a win. But Tampa played better, but they are better with Tannehill. Yeah, I agree, But they had Tannehill last week and they were out game by one hundred forty three yards. And then they had Tannehill against the Chargers and it took what three reversals at the goal line? If they were owing two in the last two tennessee instead of two and oh, how different would this line be? Yeah, and you mentioned it, Brad Powers, one of the guys are straight out of Vegas had this stat. Teams that lose by thirty five or more, So that's that embarrassment factor, all right. And Carolina lost by thirty eight against San Francisco are fifty six percent their next game. Now that is eighty six winners, sixty seven losers, So we're talking about over one hundred and seventy games. It's fifty six percent. To me. The only exception to that when you have something like the Jets where you start to wonder, is there dysfunction? Are they concerned? I was on New York radio about the Jets and he said, if they lose this game against a winless Miami, they might fire gays right in the middle of the season. So the pressure's on. I don't think Carolina feels that pressure. Finally, Cam Reports came out today he's slower to recover than they thought with his foot. I think it calms the team. They're happy right now. I actually like Carolina a good bit. Pregame dot COM's r J Bell straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio six to seven, and he also at r J and Vegas. By the way, quickly love No, you're not a college guy. Usc upsets Oregon calling you now, I'll give you a college Pigo will take thirty saconds. I love washing Yet. By the way, do you know Chris Peterson's eighteen and no off buys and nine and o off losses? The losses I hadn't had. I knew the bye, Isn't it sad? That goes back to Boise State? So that goes back to what it's one of my picks of the week. By the way, it's crazy Peterson back to Boise You give him an extra week. Which, by the way, this is where Saban's great and Belichick and any read Chris Peterson hasn't lost a game in like seven years off a bye. Well, I tell you you were telling me occasionally when you're doing your errands you listen to straight out of Vegas that Brad Powers on the college he'd hit on this pot excellent, excellent, excellent, good talking to you about. Thank you,

All right, everybody, it's Saturday. R J bel pregame dot com. But first, my blazing five picks don't want to go into detail, but I've struggled recently. Here you go, let's blaze it off. Fired up, it's Collins Blazing five Colt sits Steelers. I'm gonna take the Colts minus one and a half year. First of all, I think they're playing for a division Houston, and the Colts playing for that division Jacksonville, Tennessee, not far behind, So there's a real sense of urgency for the Colts. James Connor. They're running back, not practicing for the Steelers, so now they won't be able to run the ball, and they have an incredibly limited passing offense. Steelers twenty eighth in the league in offense. By the way, the Colts used to be an Andrew Luck story. Now they're a defensive story. Their defense in October fifth and points allout eighth and sacks tied for fifth and third down percentage. I think they're very well coached. They're in a three game winning streak, and their defense is playing excellent football. I think the Colts go on the road and they beat the Steelers. Twenty six to twenty three Detroit and Oakland. This is a game that is interesting. Oakland has not played at home for a long time right their schedule, so Oakland and a fan base are gonna be crazy. Detroit Matt stafford this report. He's sick, has a cold, not going in full strength. Detroit's beat up physically. Meanwhile, the Raiders think about this, think how tough their schedule has been. The Bears in London, at Houston, at Indie, at Green Bay, most travel geographically in the league, and here they are pretty darn good football team. And all I gotta gives up give up is less than a field goal. The Detroit Lions are great in the first quarter, they are dreadful everywhere else. Twenty second in second quarter scoring twentieth and third quarter scoring, twenty eighth in fourth quarter scoring. Derek Carr in the last month has been on fire. He's in a group with John Gruden, completing seventy one percent of his throws. The Raiders win by a touchdown. Good to have him back in the Bay area. Thirty one twenty four Cleveland and Denver. One of my bets of the year. I'll take Cleveland to blow out. The Broncos take the Browns minus three and a half. Denver has nothing to play for. They're starting a quarterback Brandon Allen who's never taken an NFL snap. It's one of the worst offensive lines and maybe the worst left tackle in the NFL. And Cleveland's defense is as healthy as it's been all year. The Broncos have allowed twenty seven sacks, bottom six in the league. The Browns top six in sacks. This is a pop gun offense. Now with a backup quarterback Nick Chubb will take the pressure off Baker. Cleveland goes into town runs the football dominates. I think Denver's gonna struggle to get first downs, thirty three to ten Browns and an utter blowout, and you'll see it early. Green Bay in Los Angeles. It's actually a home game for the Packers. It is They're are suggesting it will be the most lob sided rogue crowd in the chargers brief history in their stadium. Eighty percent Packer fans. I'll take Green Bay minus three and a half. Listen, this is one of these picks. Years ago, if I got a home team Philip Rivers and Oprah field goal, you'd always take the Chargers. Their offensive line is weak, they can't run the ball. Philip Rivers is now an older, unathletic quarterback. I mean, they just struggle to get consistent yards. Green Bay best defense in years, best running game in years, now gets Davante Adams back. Aaron Rodgers last two weeks without him been absolutely on fire, leads the league in ten interception ratio and passer raiding. Philip Rivers last week through for two hundred yards, and by the way, that's getting the ball in good field position because Trabisky can't move the chains. I like the Packers to win this game twenty seven to twenty three. I do think the Chargers will make a game of it, but I'm gonna swallow the three and a half and take Aaron Rodgers and the Vante Adams back. New England and Baltimore. I'm gonna take the Patriots. Don't overthink the room on this. Baltimore's big win is Seattle. I'm not sure how good Seattle is. I gotta be honest. They're like a football away from not battling for fourth in their division. Yippie. They beat Cincinnati. Baltimore's a good team. They're not a special team. Lamar Jackson is fun and can run like crazy, but New England controls the football. Mohammed Sanu, Edelman, Jacobe Myers, middle of the field, and New England's defense is first in everything. Don't outthink the room here. Patriots have twenty one straight games against first or second year quarterbacks. They've won. New England's going to control the ball, middle of the field. Take a lead. Now it's in Baltimore. It's gonna be crazy, but just don't outthink the room here, young quarterback against the great defense. Now with Mohammed Sanu, there's more of an identity with New England's offense here. This is an easy three to swallow. I like Lamar. This is a tough spot here. New England thirty, Baltimore twenty three. Swallow the points. Also Baltimore's defense here that this is not Baltimore revolt. Their offense is far more productive than their defense. Brady is going to have time to throw in this game. He didn't have time to throw against Cleveland last week. He'll have time this week to throw. And I like the Patriots to win hand to cover all right. RJ hosts straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio six to seven. Listen to it all the time, by the way, you get all sorts of good information. All right, let's start with this Indianapolis minus one at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh. Now, I don't know what kind of running game they're gonna have because James Conner's all banged up, and I think it's a limited passing game to begin with. And frankly, I like Indianapolis's defense, I like their coach, I like their offensive line. You know, minus one feels like a pickum. I just think the Colts win a close game. What are the wise guys thing? Okay, I'm giving you agreement, RJ's agreement, though most wise guys, most sharps would disagree here. Okay, as a Steelers fan, I follow this team very close. They I question their motivation in this spot. You might say, wait a minute, they're at home. They're a home underdog. Listen, this team's exceeded expectations. They've had some wins you wouldn't necessarily expect. And when they get fat and happy. You saw it on Monday night. They barely can't Well, they got to thirteen, but they were in a bad spot in that game. And this feels like a situation where it's home and home. The team can be a little lax. I wonder about motivation, though, I think anyone who doesn't follow this team would say, boy, that doesn't sound right. We'll watch. I'll be interested to see it. Now, let's talk about the Coats injuries. Early in the year, They've had some decimated games, games where you almost got to throw them out because they hadn't missed so many players. What ends up happening, Colin is those teams have become underrated because you're looking at the score saying, oh, they got beat by Houston or whatever, and it's well, I guess in that case they beat a Houston, But you look at the situation and you think, oh, this is the truth of the team. But it's really not because those games they were so injured. Now, I thought that might have been the case this week, but they had four key defensive players. The Coats did come back on Thursday's practice, but one concern. T Y Hilton did miss Thursday's practice. He is key to this team. So all that being said, motivationally, especially, I'm gonna agree with you with the coach. I'd say the wise guys in general would be more on the home dog. All right, I'm gonna take Oakland minus two. I think the Raiders here a little undervalued. RJ. First of all, their travel schedule has been daunting, and their schedule schedule has been tough at at Indie, is not easy at Green Bay, at Houston, and I gotta tell you they have won or been in these games. I think the Raiders now minus two, first time home in a while. I think they're undervalued. And I think Detroit is frankly easier schedule, a little overvalued. So I flipped on this early in the week. I liked the Lions, but the more I dig I'm kind of impressed when John Gruden what he's overcome with a schedule and the travel. I'll take the Raiders here. Okay, agreement on this one. This is sharp, I think for you, because I don't think it's obvious. I gotta be honest. Though. Recently I was listening to your podcast, yes, and one of the things is it flips over to like a year ago if you if you fall asleep and you listen through, and I heard you in July of eighteen. Just this week when I woke up and it was like, it's a dumpster fire. Gruden's gonna be a dumpster fire. So I give you credit. What do you think has changed? Well, I mean I think you know, my thing with him was ten years out of the league, too much noise. But the Raiders are a noisy franchise. Gruden. I think it's done a good job to relate to players. I think he has made the game easier for Derek Carr. And let's be honest, from his free agent acquisitions to his draft picks on the offensive side. He knows that side. Now all questions some of their draft picks on the defensive side, but RJ, They've got nice offensive personnel. I gotta be honest. I think you're right on. And I also think what we're seeing is the league is dropping off with the quality of coaching. This is something Michael Lombardi's talked about. Where Belichick he's in his mid six season. Beyond that's think about Tom Land You at that point, think about Chuck Noll. Jimmy Johnson was retired, which coach has excelled at this age, and he's getting better. If you look at the against the spread record, which is the way to major it. He's better the last five years, Belichick. So what does that mean to this game? A guy like Gruden, whatever he was ten years ago, he might even be better now relative to the rest of the league. All Right, Raiders. Strength the schedule, you said it third best in the NFL. A lot of tough ones. Casey in they had to play Chicago at London at that time. Chicago we liked, Oh for sure. Chicago was favored by six points in that game. Think about it after Denver, Casey, Minnesota, Indy, Chicago, Green Bay, Houston. What's the easy game there? I mean Troy, Yeah, exactly, that's a great one. Last thing, Detroit is banged Slay may or may not play. And since they lost running back Johnson last week, for example, twenty five carries fifty nine yards. They cannot run the ball. And Stafford has the flu and they said he's horse. He can hardly talk a row team without a quarterback that can show is a problem. You'll be hearing about that more coming up this weekend. I think agreement Raiders one of my favorite bets, maybe of the year. I'll take Cleveland minus three at Denver. The Browns defense is healthy. Their defensive line gave Brady troubles and Russell Wilson and Jared Goff okay against a rookie quarterback in Denver and kind of an anequated offensive coach in Vic Fangio and a bad offensive line with a tremendously week left tackle. I think this game gets ugly. I think the defensive front for Cleveland, very early in this game establishes utter dominance. This is an easy minus three delay. I love the Browns. What are the wise guys think? Oh? You me to you said easy, and I'm like, oh, okay, But I will say this, this is a game that I didn't see it until I started digging into it for you, Meaning I looked at and go, oh, I don't want to bet the Browns, and oh, I don't want to bet Denver, And in my mind I kind of moved on the first time through. I think you're onto something here actually, and we're probably gonna use this in the super contest. Here's my thinking the Road Favorites. The biggest problem is complacency. Oh or you're going to get a full motivation. One of the things we talked about over the years is how off of Bye Road Favorites are great because off of bye, you got motivation. Well, Cleveland's got off a bye, but you know they're motivated here right number two Kitchens. He seems to be a liability, but its Fangio necessarily going to be the guy to exploit that. I don't know. I don't think so. Also, this Browns defense early in the year, you remember against the Rams, very unhealthy. They have gotten healthier. So there's some of that that the prior scores might be a little skewed because the defense, especially for the Browns, were so injured. Strength ist schedule, hardest in the NFL, hardest, Cleveland last five weeks, Rams, Baltimore, San Francisco, Seattle, New England. Think about that for a second. Finally, I liked I'll be candid, I liked the Coats. Last week when Denver covered against him, I questioned the motivation of Denver. They were motivated. But now a backup quarterback, six round pick, and he has the smallest hands in the NFL. I expect at least one fumble from Brandon Allen agreement Browns. I'm taking a lot of favorites this week. I'm gonna take Green Bay. Now, the numbers minus three and a half, which which leads me to believe a lot of the gumshoe toilet paper on the shoe guys will love it. But it comes down to something. I watched a lot of Chargers football. Their offensive lines bad, their quarterbacks on athletic, they just can't pick up yards. Here they are a team that can't really move the ball consistently, and it starts with their offense of line. I think Green Bay's gonna be It's essentially I mean Aaron Rodgers has a house, lives in Los Angeles. Actually, most of the year they'll have ninety eighty percent crowd. I think again, this could get ugly. I'll lay the three and a half, and I know that number. A lot of those guys, the old old school wise guys, will love it. But this is an easy lay for me here. I'll take the Packers minus three and a half. Yeah, the old school guys are gonna say home dog, Home dog. But here's the thing. This might be the least valuable home field game of the season. Yeah, I think it's right there because green Bay travels while Chargers historically now since they've been in LA, not a great home field. Now they're not winning, So it's even less enthusiasm, less than zero as some would say, so to me, it even goes beyond that. My concern is green Bay on the road. As you talked about a few weeks ago, Aaron Rodgers and his career is right around five hundred. The Cowboy win brought him to five hundred. That's amazing that it's so poor for an all time quarterback. Also, though, I think Green Bay feels this momentum and when a team feels excited because they're doing so well, they tend to keep doing it because the road favorite spot is where they might let up just a little bit. And this Chargers team, you think, oh, they gotta win finally. Last week against the Bears, they were outgained by one hundred and fifty yards. The Bears had not gained on offense over three hundred yards the entire season, and they did and well passed it against the Chargers and they just fired their OC Wizzen Hunt gone. Now do you really think that coaching staff can really? You know, when Belichick let someone go or someone has to leave, he might slide in and take over. You don't want that with a Chargers head coach. So to me. That's a type of disruption that's significant. I hate being on with the average fan. The average fans are gonna go green Bay's easy. I think they're right here, agreement green Bay. Finally we have a bonus pick. But finally, so I've gotten a lot of agreement with you this week so far. In fact, let's see Indie agreement. Oh good lord, this may be four and one or five and oh agreement. I think we're going crazy on Baltimore. I like them. I think their schedule gets a lot harder. New England only has to swallow three. New England's defense eats a live young quarterbacks. Well, why would Lamar be different? Because he can run, He's still going to have to make throws to win this football game. And this is the best secondary of my adult life. It's great and deep and sward their linebackers. I expect Baltimore to be frenzied at home and make it competitive. But boy, you're you're just giving me here a defense that Lamar Jackson is going to be. My belief confused a lot. I'll lay I'll swallow the three here. I'll take New England minus three. What are the wise guys think Now this would be another example of agreement for me. Many wise guys, Pazik my guy on this right out of Vegas show on pregame. Also, he actually has the best bet on Baltimore. But let's physic's one of those dudes that knows he's making a mistake, but he still makes it because because there's some kind of principle above that he cares, and his principle above here is okay, Baltimore off a bye. Now let's give hardball credit eleven and two straight up, nine and four against the spread after a buye he prepares well with extra time. Lamar is still a young quarterback, disadvantage against Belichick, but an advantage I have to buy and a few gadget plays perhaps for hardball. Now, what does Belichick do? He takes away what you do best. He makes you play left handed, that's the phrase he uses. Well, what's that going to be for Lamar? Lamar running comes naturally. Passing he's doing better, not his first instinct. So I expect Belichick the force and me and Jeanie was on f one talking about this. He will worst Lamar to throw my prop bet. I love love love over passing yards for Lamar Jackson hasn't come out yet. We think it's gonna be around two oh five. If it's in that range, I love the over. The question is can Lamar succeed? I don't really think so. I agree with the Pats here. One last thing. This is kind of pheasic going against logic in my opinion, but that's why we have fun on the show. Since two thousand and one, the Patriots are sixty percent against the spread. No other teams above fifty five. Betting against them means that the internal, the specific factors of this game would have to have. You have like thirteen percentage points. You got to go all the way to Belichick only winning forty seven percent from sixty to even break even if you're betting the other way because of the Viig. So to me, if history tells you over twenty years almost he wins sixty percent of the time, why not just say Patriots or pass every game from here on? Yeah? No, I mean, it's all I know is this New England may have some identity issues on offense. I think they solve some of them with Mohammed Sanou, who, like Gronk, is a middle of the field receiver. So I think between Edelman, Jacoby Myers, and Sanou they found an identity in their passing game, which is middle of the field. And I still don't think Baltimore's defense is great RJ. I think Marcus Peters helps, but it's a pretty average defense with not a very sustainable or consistent pass rush. Brady's going to have time to throw. Well, listen, Peters McVeigh is the boy genius right now. I know you are a Shanahan guy, but let's just call both of them top ten coaches, top eight coaches. They just let this guy go for what a fifth round pick? How good can he? I mean, how much can he add to the team? And the only good Ravens performance on d was against Seattle. It was one game. And let me say the last thing the wrap things up to me. If five years ago you would say there's a guy on the radio and he's gonna pick five games a week and he's gonna hit fifty even fifty five percent, I know you've been above that. I would bet literally my biggest bet of the year on the no. So I think what people got to realize is the level of difficulty of picking five games it's so much harder than picking two or three, because, let's be honest, you usually have the three you really like. Yes, four and five's tough. So the fact that you're going back and forth during the week is just a sign of honesty. Anyone that acts like these are five clear picks every week, they're just lyne Finally, I give a bonus pick on Saturday, I'd probably you know, I've always had this fascination with Tennessee. I do think they're well coached. They're getting four at Carolina. It's a number. I think it's a close game Carolina. I do think humiliated play as well. I'm kind of going against what I usually think, which is good team gets humiliated Carolina, they bounce back and play well. I take Tennessee plus four, but I wouldn't put it in my blazing five. I didn't feel strongly about it. What would the wise guys say? I personally, and I think most wise guys would say Carolina here though some just our dog, dog dog all the time. Pretty much. Listen. Tennessee was out game by one hundred and forty three yards against Tampa. Yah, so it goes up as a win. But Tampa played better, but they are better with Tannehill. Yeah, I agree, But they had Tannehill last week and they were out game by one hundred forty three yards. And then they had Tannehill against the Chargers and it took what three reversals at the goal line? If they were owing two in the last two tennessee instead of two and oh, how different would this line be? Yeah, and you mentioned it, Brad Powers, one of the guys are straight out of Vegas had this stat. Teams that lose by thirty five or more, So that's that embarrassment factor, all right. And Carolina lost by thirty eight against San Francisco are fifty six percent their next game. Now that is eighty six winners, sixty seven losers, So we're talking about over one hundred and seventy games. It's fifty six percent. To me. The only exception to that when you have something like the Jets where you start to wonder, is there dysfunction? Are they concerned? I was on New York radio about the Jets and he said, if they lose this game against a winless Miami, they might fire gays right in the middle of the season. So the pressure's on. I don't think Carolina feels that pressure. Finally, Cam Reports came out today he's slower to recover than they thought with his foot. I think it calms the team. They're happy right now. I actually like Carolina a good bit. Pregame dot COM's r J Bell straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio six to seven, and he also at r J and Vegas. By the way, quickly love No, you're not a college guy. Usc upsets Oregon calling you now, I'll give you a college Pigo will take thirty saconds. I love washing Yet. By the way, do you know Chris Peterson's eighteen and no off buys and nine and o off losses? The losses I hadn't had. I knew the bye, Isn't it sad? That goes back to Boise State? So that goes back to what it's one of my picks of the week. By the way, it's crazy Peterson back to Boise You give him an extra week. Which, by the way, this is where Saban's great and Belichick and any read Chris Peterson hasn't lost a game in like seven years off a bye. Well, I tell you you were telling me occasionally when you're doing your errands you listen to straight out of Vegas that Brad Powers on the college he'd hit on this pot excellent, excellent, excellent, good talking to you about. Thank you,