Hi, everybody, Welcome to the Saturday Morning Podcast. Yes, I had been on quite a role. In fact, I like Thursday the Eagles plus four, so actually ten two in one last thirteen picks. Here we go first with my Blazing five. Let's blaze it off, Fire up, It's Collins Blazon five. Titans at Falcons. I'm gonna take Tennessee plus three and a half. Listen, don't bail on Tennessee. There are Jekyl and Hide team in the NFL. Awful one week last year, crush the Cowboys, awful the next week, crushed New England. Atlanta has really been troublesome to me. Matt Ryan leads the NFL with six interceptions. He had seven all last year. Obviously, they have a coordinator quarterback issue. They are tied for the Browns for the most penalties in the league. They're a mess. The Falcons have the third worst third down defense, meaning Matt Ryan for long stretches, sits on the sidelines. By the way, the Titans have done this well turnover differential plus four. Tennessee's got a good coach, a good offensive line. You just can't bail on Tennessee. And I know you'll want to, but they finished nine and seven, nine and seven, nine and seven the last three years. They're just inconsistent because Marcus Mariota is inconsistent. But I'm getting over a field goal here. I'm gonna call for an upset. Tennessee wins twenty seven twenty four. Brown said Ravens, I do not generally like laying a touchdown, but I'm gonna take Baltimore minus seven here. Cleveland's been the picture of inefficiency. Penalties lead the NFL. Baker mayfield interceptions second most in the league. They're converting twenty eight percent on third down. With all those talented players, Cleveland is just inefficient. Baltimore's the opposite. They have a lower ceiling but are completely efficient. Only team in the NFL without a turnover, points yards rushing first first. I don't think Lamar is there yet, but he knows it and they know it, and they don't put them in situations to fail. I think Cleveland continually puts Baker in positions to fail. I also think there's a total mismatch. Baltimore's offensive line is fantastic, Cleveland's as junk. Time of possession. Ravens have the ball for thirty eight minutes and they win twenty nine to seventeen and cover Raiders at Colts. I'm gonna go against the public on this. I'm gonna take the Raiders plus six and a half. First of all, that rookie running back from Alabama, Josh Jacobs leads all rookie running backs they and that by the way, Colts have struggled defensively to stop the run. Raiders young tight end is top ten and the league in catches for tight ends. The Raiders have done some things well. They're running the football, their old line is better. They've got a really good, skilled wide receiving corps. Here's the problem of the Indianapolis so far. They've won but barely, and their defense has been really underwhelming twenty eighth and red zone defense twenty eight in third down defense, I think the Raiders are going to convert a lot of third downs in this game and keep it very close. We paid so much attention when Andrew Luck retired to Jacobe Prissette, and we do like I do like what I'm seeing with the Colts offense. I don't like what I'm seeing it with a defense. I don't see the speed I don't see them getting people off the field. I think it's a twenty seven twenty six game either way. I'm taking the Raiders and six and a half twenty seven twenty six, I think, and he probably pulls it out, but I'll take the points. Seahawks it, Cardinals like it. I love it. This game. Zowa was close. Seattle last week had a two to one statistical edge on New Orleans and got crushed. They're not converting enough. Seahawks are allowing almost twenty seven points a game. The Seahawks three wins, all their games have been decided by six points or less. They're winning statistical battles and can't put people away. That's a troubling sign that'll come back to haunt Seattle against better teams. Listen, Arizona. Save this about Arizona. They've played real teams. Detroit's hasn't lost a game. Both the more looks good. They went right toe to toe with them. Carolina's got all sorts of good players. Arizona's faced good teams. They are staying in games, and I think with Kyler Murray and Cliff Kingsbury, even though they're losing, the locker room feels like, we're not a super Bowl team. We know it, but we are getting better week after week. I think Arizona is a very interesting story here. Again. I think it's a twenty four twenty three, very ugly game. Seattle may lead most of it. I'll take Kyler Murray to come back, get a backdoor cover. Arizona covers, loses, but covers twenty four twenty three Hawks Chowboys. It seems. I mean, this is a gift I get. I get New Orleans, which I think could be the better team, and they're at home, and I get the superior coach, and I get two and a half points. I mean Teddy Bridgewater and nineteen starts. I'll put the numbers up. He's pretty good, by the way, Alvin Kamara at home sixtd's past five home games, he's really good. Saints don't turn the ball over three turnovers all year. By the way, that pass rush nine sacks. I think I think I may be getting the better team here. I'm getting the better coach, I'm getting home field advantage. I'm getting Sunday night football, so people in New Orleans can lubricate all day Sunday. It'll be the loudest crowd of the year, and I'm getting the better team. I'm gonna take the Saints to win it outright, twenty eight to twenty seven. So here's my blazing five. I'm taking points with Tennessee. I'm gonna swallow points and go Baltimore. I'm taking the Dog Raiders, the Dog Cardinals, and the Dogs Saints. So I have four underdogs in my blazing five this week. All right, let's start with this. I think the Titans have been over the last couple of years. Plus four against Atlanta, A very strange team. You have to be careful about falling in love with him, but you can't bail on him. R J r J bel joining us pregame dot Com at RJ and Vegas Twitter. I like him here. I think defensive line edge I don't trust right now Dirt Cutter and Matt Ryan. Matt's interceptions are way up. So I'm gonna take the Titans. I get more than a field goal here with that staff and that online plus four, what are the wise guys think? Agreement? Now? The Titans have the biggest disparate results, I think you could say this season, whereas against the Browns, they look mighty good, I mean blowout city and then they lose at home against the Colts. But the Colts have turned out to be pretty good. But boy, oh boy, on Thursday night did they look bad against Jacksonville? I mean just bad. So I agree with you. I like the coach with Tennessee, but this year it hasn't felt like a really well coached team. Speaking of coach oh right now in the betting markets offshore, the coach that's favored to get fired first, quinn yea from the Falcons when you got a good quarterback and you can't win owners see that? And you mentioned the interceptions six picks this season for Matt Ryan only seven all of last season. Last trended. Let me ask you if there's any rhyme or reason to this one. The Falcons are o and twelve against the spread, last twelve games against the AFC. Is that purely random or could it be? And let me throw the theory out that when you only play a team every four years, you've got to be able to quickly come up with a game plan, and maybe coaching deficiencies show themselves when you're less familiar, because if you're familiar in division for example. The other extreme, Well, even if you're not good with game plans, you're gonna eventually figure out how to play those guys once every four years. It's tougher. Could this be a sign of Quinn not being a good coach? And twelve against the all right? So I get agreement there, I'm gonna go. And this is a big number, and I have a feeling I'm wrong. I told my staff, I said, RJ's not gonna like this. I'm gonna take Baltimore minus seven. Now, Lamar Jackson is really struggling, but I think I got a coaching mismatch. I really really like Baltimore's offensive line, and I think you can run right at the Browns as long as you keep away from Miles Garrett. So I think Baltimore will own time of possession here and keep it away from those dynamic Brown receivers. I'm gonna take Ravens minus seven. What are the wise guys think? Okay, so you you're taking the Ravens behind the seven? You know something. I'm gonna give you agreement on this one, but you are you know shot? This is one of those we call it. I think I told you this once duct tape shoe guys. It's the guys that have the oh, you only take the underdog only, blah blah blah, and the reality is sometimes the underdogs not the value play. Now you said something, Did you say, Lamar Jackson's been struggling or you met Baker, Well, Baker struggling. We know it. Lamar's got a better coach, a better online about a running game, He's got a better system. But you know he was hit and miss against Kansas City. No, I agree, but I think if you look across the season, yes, and it's hard to say that Ravens have underperformed. They even covered, you know, which is pretty important against Casey with the back door. I think those two things that make me agree with you with Baltimore here. Number one is with this quirky offense, you need discipline and coaching on the other side, So the Ravens are very quirky. Well at this point, Kitchens, I'm not sure if he's an NFL level head coach. I agree. And number two, I know the Browns don't have discipline, and if you look at the most penalties in the NFL, that's a pretty good sign. Now, on the other side, of the ball is Mayfield has been struggling under pressure. So thirty seven quarterbacks passer rating under pressure, he's number thirty three, So forget the starters, he's outside of the starters thirty two teams when it comes to pressure or The Ravens lead the league in quarterback hits. So the given is the Ravens are gonna get pressure on you can you throw decently under pressure? Mayfield shows he can't. I'm going to delay the seven and take the Ravens. All right, let's go to one. Now this will be I'm two and old agreements. We know the Raiders are a bit of a mess, but I still think offensively, John Gruden, Derek Carr, improved online running game, they can score points when I look at the Colts, So I'm gonna take the Raiders plus seven at Indie. Here's the thing. We are spending so much time talking about Jacoby Brissette, and he's been terrific. Their defense though in Indie two me RJ has been a little bit of a disappointment. People are moving a ball in Indie, so I do think Indie probably wins here, but I do feel like get a better quarterback, I get a touchdown and Indie, I'm not sure if t Y Hilton's gonna play now, so I'm gonna go with the Raiders plus seven. Where do the wise guys land? Now? The duct tape shoe guys would agree, but we're disagreeing on this one, so it bites both ways. Right, here's the thing the now when you're talking about how much you're talking about Dr Kobe Perssett, Now, I listen to your show every year. I haven't heard much about him because I think he's I think he's solid, but I think there's too many great young quarterbacks. No, I hear you. I'm just saying, is the idea that he's getting all this attention to all this love. I would say that the quotes have certainly performed better than expected. Remember after and Drew Luck this season win total when he retired was about seven and a half, So the assumption was the quotes would be a blowout slightly below average team. I think that's been a reevaluation pretty quickly. And you've been a fan of the Coats front office. I think it's it really is a validation, yes, of the front office. It knows no question. There starts a validation of their GM, but I think their ceilings lower and their defense isn't playing that great. Yeah, and you're right. Here's the stat to speak to that. So yards allowed per possession Raiders are twenty ninth, so they're giving up a lot of yards on defense. Coats are twenty eighth, so not as good at d Remember early in the year, and we'll get to this later with the Patriots game. Strength of schedule is so important because when you only play three games. You look at the Cowboys for example, strength of the schedule is horrible, but they still look great. One more thing about the Raiders, and I'm not sure, And I got to say, as an avid listener, it's always like, well, this is going to be the nineteenth thing in a row I say critical of on Gruden, but I love him. But here comes so I'm not sure how much you love Gruden. I'm just saying as a fan, I like him, As a friend, like him as a TV guy, I think he's a little over a ski sometimes as a football operations guy. Well, we'll think about this. You just said the key words on the road early start ten am is where routine discipline matters, or just in general, on the road. Gruden is one and eighth straight up in his tenure. Now second time here two and seven against the spread. Now, early start time makes that even more important, that kind of BELICHICKI and discipline, but you know what else does Next week the Raiders play in London, So now they're getting all these preparations ready at the same time they're flying in the Indy. I'm guessing, and I haven't verified this, they're gonna fly straight to London. So the fact that they're having a double pack and all of the machinations around at all the logistics, I think it's a huge distraction. Last thing is the Raiders, after they lost easily last week, A couple of the players are saying, we can't take this lying down, we can't take this easily, which is code for some of the team doesn't seem to really care all that much. So to me, I think this team could give up on the field potentially if they get down fourteen. So I don't want them plus seven, all right, finally or not Finally my fourth pick, I have two to one agreement. I'm gonna take Arizona at home plus the points against Seattle. You know, first of all, they paid, they faced some pretty good teams. They faced Baltimore and they were feisty. They face Detroit and they were feisty. I think they're showing growth urj every week Seattle. If you didn't watch that game, Seattle got pushed all over the field by New Orleans. They lost special teams, defense and offense. I think Arizona historically keeps it close here and I five five and a half too much. What do the wise guys think? Favorite pick of the week here? Love it? Love it? I'll make I'm gonna make a couple Bowl predictions. This is one of them. Seattle does not go above five hundred this year. I think this team is way overrated. Yeah, you mentioned it. Against the Saints, Seattle did dominate the stats, the stats five hundred fifteen yards against two sixty five eleven more first downs Wilson four hundred plus yards. That said, I think the Saints with Bridgewater not near as good as people think, not near as good as you think. I would guess. And here's the thing about Arizona, and this is kind of a quirky little thing. The second team in the last thirty years to be three and oh against the spread but winless in the wind column the actual win call. So they're actually going down with a fight. Yeah. And I also believe this with a rookie head coach in a rookie quarterback. The locker room is strong because everybody knows they're not going to the super Bowl. They're looking for weekly growth. And I think it's a very good locker room. That's why they're not bailing. They're in these games, they lose them, and they fly home and think we're getting close. I think they think they can win this game. Yeah, And actually looking at it, and I made a little computational error. They didn't cover against Carolina, but what they did do so, But you're right, they have been competitive, especially net and net in the second half. If you look at it, they've been outscored by twenty nine points in the first half and they've actually outscored their opponents by five points in the second half. And I think this has to do with the pace of the offense, whereas you've got a college system that's fast paced, and I think the other teams are struggling in the second half. So this is a little niche. But if you do like Arizona here, I personally would like them more in the second half. In the first and you can actually bet at halftime the second half and if you do like Seattle, I like them much more in the first half. But Net and Net, I agree with you with Arizona. Okay, I'm gonna take the Saints plus two and a half, so I get an agreement for the week against Dallas. So the Saints beat a playoff team Houston, the Saints lost breezing, got a bad whistle, could have beaten LA, and the Saints beat Seattle on the road. All three playoff teams. They have lived in a world of discomfort this year. Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Sean McVay, Pete Carroll. These are winning coaches, Hall of Fame level talents. Dallas Dak has faced the least pressure in the league. It's been nothing but comfort. Now it's Superdome against this defense. I think it's gonna be a little jarring for Dallas, at least in the first half. And I'm gonna take the Saints, who have faced discomfort all season and could be three and ozer. I'm taking them in the points. What are the wise guys think? I think the duck tapes. You guys agree with you. I'm going the other way again. I like Dallas here listen. I is my second, big, big, big statement. Teddy Bridgewater is not a starting quarterback back. I heard you on the show say, oh, yeah, he's not top half of the league. But you know he's a really salt No, he's not a really solid starter. I really don't think so. Now, this is my opinion. Most people disagree with me if you look at his yardage after the catch, because one thing we've learned in the modern NFL, any competent quarterback can complete short passes. If the other team knows that's all you've got, they make it so hard. This is the old and obviously you've come off this is the years have gone by. But the old Dank and Dak and duncan all that stuff. Because really a rookie complete and short passes. Hey, that's the way things are. You can do that if you're competent. What is Bridgewater? Let me ask you, calling, what is Bridgewater done since his injury, even in the preseason, that has shown he can go downfield in every sub season, either the regular season where he played one or two games since or and this year being a good example of that, or even preseasons he's had a yards per attempt below the NFL average is seven point five yards per attempt. He's never above that average. How can that be? He's not going downfield? Yes, but Breeze last two years hasn't gone down field, especially late in the years. I think his poise, his IQ, his coachability, he's a great distributor, he's a reasonable fact. Similarly to Breeze, Drew Brees does not throw the ball down the field plus twenty yards. So they've built an offense on screens and Michael Thomas over the middle possession. And I think it's effective with that defense. Yeah, and I think that there. It's the varying degrees, right, It's it's like the guy who's got twenty pounds on his ballet is heavy, and so is the guy four hundred pounds. I think you're right. Breeze is not going downfield in a massive way, but at least eighteen twenty yard pass is a threat with Bridgewater. I don't know how much of this is Sean Payton's just doesn't want him to lose his confidence, and he's keeping the reins on him, but you would think in the preseason they would let him go downfield. So to me, this is a bet on Dak. And one more thing about Dak. You know, in these next gen stats, a lot of people starting to talk about these wonderful stats, I think in some ways because they actually capture what's happening on the field, not just the yardage. And if you look at Dak and they estimate, okay, based on the difficulty of his passes, and they grade every pass he's thrown, how many should he complete, He's exceeded that significantly. So Dak is becoming as accurate as any quarterback in the NFL, at least based on this season. This guy is playing literally like a superstar at this point. Now, the competition hasn't been great, but I think the Cowboys are better than people think. I like Dallas Lane less than a field goal. Finally, bonus pick, the last pick I was going to make and didn't, Bills plus seven. I would take them against New England. I think Buffalo's defense is better than people think. I think it's excellent. I think they're well coached. The reason I took this out I don't Belichick literally humiliates young quarterbacks, and Josh Allen is not at the level that he can play air free football, and I think he'll make a big mistake. And I just don't trust him because I think New England's defense is as good as it's been in a decade. So I'm not gonna bet this. But I would have taken Bills plus seven. What would the wise guys think our bonus pick? Again? The duct takes, you guys would have agreed. I disagree on this one. I like New England and I'm gonna make my final announcement. I'm retiring betting against Ballichick. I had the Jets last week and that backdoor cover, I'm gonna say that's it. I'm done. And I've been quoting the stat with you with others for years that Ballichick is about sixty percent against his spread. Yeah, it's awesome. Zimmer has actually been better since he started, but Belichick's been second. You know what's amazing. If you actually go back now sixty games, which goes back to twenty sixteen, Belichick is forty two and eighteen against the spread. It's almost incomprehensible that at this time where he has the biggest brand, Brady has the biggest brand. They still are covering when you know everyone wants to beat him, which tell in by definition it's a marketplace. More people beat him, the more expensive the Pats have been. And they're still cheap because they keep covering the spread. Look at how they do in Buffalo. Last fifteen trips, fifteen to Buffalo, they've lost one straight up, only two the Patriots have lost against his spread, So they're good in that spot. And you said, a really good D. Best D of the decade for the Pats, maybe the best D of the decade in the NFL. First defense in NFL history not to allow a touchdown in three straight games to start the season. Oh, by the way, the Super Bowl was the fourth game they didn't allow a touchdown. There. Offensively, think about that, four straight NFL games in the modern era without allowing a touchdown. How many you think about this? How many possessions have opposing teams had against New England this year? Yeah, so if you look at the possession count, there's been thirty nine possessions. How many times that people scored on it once? I mean it's just I know they're not facing great teams, but they faced the Steelers. That's insane. And then they think about this. The second best in that stat the Bills six out of thirty seven possessions. So the Pats could have given up not one, but two, three, four, and five and still been leading the league in possessions allowed to score for the opponent. And I'll tell you this, I believe the Patriots last thing are gonna be on offense like they were with Gronk last year. Gronk was like the car. A guy like you that can have three or four cars. I know you don't tell you don't even buy coffee I know you won't even buy coffee out. But if you have that third or fourth car, you only bring it out if it's sunny on a Sunday, if everything's right, it got to be sixty degrees put the top down. Well that's how they were with Gronk, right. I think they're gonna be running power football the Pats when they don't need to have Brady in harm's way, and then it's gonna be like, huh, they didn't really get much margin there, huh. But then when they need it, Brady's gonna show things that he hasn't showing the rest of the time. Why because why beat him up at his age? This is unprecedented. He even in his late thirties, was falling off at the end of the years. I think they try to save him. But this game, a statement game against an undefeated team. I think you see more offense from Brady than you have the rest of this year. So I've got three to two agreement. The bonus pick. I like the Bills, he likes the Patriots. R J Bell Pregame dot Com on Fox Sports Radio at r J and Vegas. Good talking to you, Bud. Thank you

Hi, everybody, Welcome to the Saturday Morning Podcast. Yes, I had been on quite a role. In fact, I like Thursday the Eagles plus four, so actually ten two in one last thirteen picks. Here we go first with my Blazing five. Let's blaze it off, Fire up, It's Collins Blazon five. Titans at Falcons. I'm gonna take Tennessee plus three and a half. Listen, don't bail on Tennessee. There are Jekyl and Hide team in the NFL. Awful one week last year, crush the Cowboys, awful the next week, crushed New England. Atlanta has really been troublesome to me. Matt Ryan leads the NFL with six interceptions. He had seven all last year. Obviously, they have a coordinator quarterback issue. They are tied for the Browns for the most penalties in the league. They're a mess. The Falcons have the third worst third down defense, meaning Matt Ryan for long stretches, sits on the sidelines. By the way, the Titans have done this well turnover differential plus four. Tennessee's got a good coach, a good offensive line. You just can't bail on Tennessee. And I know you'll want to, but they finished nine and seven, nine and seven, nine and seven the last three years. They're just inconsistent because Marcus Mariota is inconsistent. But I'm getting over a field goal here. I'm gonna call for an upset. Tennessee wins twenty seven twenty four. Brown said Ravens, I do not generally like laying a touchdown, but I'm gonna take Baltimore minus seven here. Cleveland's been the picture of inefficiency. Penalties lead the NFL. Baker mayfield interceptions second most in the league. They're converting twenty eight percent on third down. With all those talented players, Cleveland is just inefficient. Baltimore's the opposite. They have a lower ceiling but are completely efficient. Only team in the NFL without a turnover, points yards rushing first first. I don't think Lamar is there yet, but he knows it and they know it, and they don't put them in situations to fail. I think Cleveland continually puts Baker in positions to fail. I also think there's a total mismatch. Baltimore's offensive line is fantastic, Cleveland's as junk. Time of possession. Ravens have the ball for thirty eight minutes and they win twenty nine to seventeen and cover Raiders at Colts. I'm gonna go against the public on this. I'm gonna take the Raiders plus six and a half. First of all, that rookie running back from Alabama, Josh Jacobs leads all rookie running backs they and that by the way, Colts have struggled defensively to stop the run. Raiders young tight end is top ten and the league in catches for tight ends. The Raiders have done some things well. They're running the football, their old line is better. They've got a really good, skilled wide receiving corps. Here's the problem of the Indianapolis so far. They've won but barely, and their defense has been really underwhelming twenty eighth and red zone defense twenty eight in third down defense, I think the Raiders are going to convert a lot of third downs in this game and keep it very close. We paid so much attention when Andrew Luck retired to Jacobe Prissette, and we do like I do like what I'm seeing with the Colts offense. I don't like what I'm seeing it with a defense. I don't see the speed I don't see them getting people off the field. I think it's a twenty seven twenty six game either way. I'm taking the Raiders and six and a half twenty seven twenty six, I think, and he probably pulls it out, but I'll take the points. Seahawks it, Cardinals like it. I love it. This game. Zowa was close. Seattle last week had a two to one statistical edge on New Orleans and got crushed. They're not converting enough. Seahawks are allowing almost twenty seven points a game. The Seahawks three wins, all their games have been decided by six points or less. They're winning statistical battles and can't put people away. That's a troubling sign that'll come back to haunt Seattle against better teams. Listen, Arizona. Save this about Arizona. They've played real teams. Detroit's hasn't lost a game. Both the more looks good. They went right toe to toe with them. Carolina's got all sorts of good players. Arizona's faced good teams. They are staying in games, and I think with Kyler Murray and Cliff Kingsbury, even though they're losing, the locker room feels like, we're not a super Bowl team. We know it, but we are getting better week after week. I think Arizona is a very interesting story here. Again. I think it's a twenty four twenty three, very ugly game. Seattle may lead most of it. I'll take Kyler Murray to come back, get a backdoor cover. Arizona covers, loses, but covers twenty four twenty three Hawks Chowboys. It seems. I mean, this is a gift I get. I get New Orleans, which I think could be the better team, and they're at home, and I get the superior coach, and I get two and a half points. I mean Teddy Bridgewater and nineteen starts. I'll put the numbers up. He's pretty good, by the way, Alvin Kamara at home sixtd's past five home games, he's really good. Saints don't turn the ball over three turnovers all year. By the way, that pass rush nine sacks. I think I think I may be getting the better team here. I'm getting the better coach, I'm getting home field advantage. I'm getting Sunday night football, so people in New Orleans can lubricate all day Sunday. It'll be the loudest crowd of the year, and I'm getting the better team. I'm gonna take the Saints to win it outright, twenty eight to twenty seven. So here's my blazing five. I'm taking points with Tennessee. I'm gonna swallow points and go Baltimore. I'm taking the Dog Raiders, the Dog Cardinals, and the Dogs Saints. So I have four underdogs in my blazing five this week. All right, let's start with this. I think the Titans have been over the last couple of years. Plus four against Atlanta, A very strange team. You have to be careful about falling in love with him, but you can't bail on him. R J r J bel joining us pregame dot Com at RJ and Vegas Twitter. I like him here. I think defensive line edge I don't trust right now Dirt Cutter and Matt Ryan. Matt's interceptions are way up. So I'm gonna take the Titans. I get more than a field goal here with that staff and that online plus four, what are the wise guys think? Agreement? Now? The Titans have the biggest disparate results, I think you could say this season, whereas against the Browns, they look mighty good, I mean blowout city and then they lose at home against the Colts. But the Colts have turned out to be pretty good. But boy, oh boy, on Thursday night did they look bad against Jacksonville? I mean just bad. So I agree with you. I like the coach with Tennessee, but this year it hasn't felt like a really well coached team. Speaking of coach oh right now in the betting markets offshore, the coach that's favored to get fired first, quinn yea from the Falcons when you got a good quarterback and you can't win owners see that? And you mentioned the interceptions six picks this season for Matt Ryan only seven all of last season. Last trended. Let me ask you if there's any rhyme or reason to this one. The Falcons are o and twelve against the spread, last twelve games against the AFC. Is that purely random or could it be? And let me throw the theory out that when you only play a team every four years, you've got to be able to quickly come up with a game plan, and maybe coaching deficiencies show themselves when you're less familiar, because if you're familiar in division for example. The other extreme, Well, even if you're not good with game plans, you're gonna eventually figure out how to play those guys once every four years. It's tougher. Could this be a sign of Quinn not being a good coach? And twelve against the all right? So I get agreement there, I'm gonna go. And this is a big number, and I have a feeling I'm wrong. I told my staff, I said, RJ's not gonna like this. I'm gonna take Baltimore minus seven. Now, Lamar Jackson is really struggling, but I think I got a coaching mismatch. I really really like Baltimore's offensive line, and I think you can run right at the Browns as long as you keep away from Miles Garrett. So I think Baltimore will own time of possession here and keep it away from those dynamic Brown receivers. I'm gonna take Ravens minus seven. What are the wise guys think? Okay, so you you're taking the Ravens behind the seven? You know something. I'm gonna give you agreement on this one, but you are you know shot? This is one of those we call it. I think I told you this once duct tape shoe guys. It's the guys that have the oh, you only take the underdog only, blah blah blah, and the reality is sometimes the underdogs not the value play. Now you said something, Did you say, Lamar Jackson's been struggling or you met Baker, Well, Baker struggling. We know it. Lamar's got a better coach, a better online about a running game, He's got a better system. But you know he was hit and miss against Kansas City. No, I agree, but I think if you look across the season, yes, and it's hard to say that Ravens have underperformed. They even covered, you know, which is pretty important against Casey with the back door. I think those two things that make me agree with you with Baltimore here. Number one is with this quirky offense, you need discipline and coaching on the other side, So the Ravens are very quirky. Well at this point, Kitchens, I'm not sure if he's an NFL level head coach. I agree. And number two, I know the Browns don't have discipline, and if you look at the most penalties in the NFL, that's a pretty good sign. Now, on the other side, of the ball is Mayfield has been struggling under pressure. So thirty seven quarterbacks passer rating under pressure, he's number thirty three, So forget the starters, he's outside of the starters thirty two teams when it comes to pressure or The Ravens lead the league in quarterback hits. So the given is the Ravens are gonna get pressure on you can you throw decently under pressure? Mayfield shows he can't. I'm going to delay the seven and take the Ravens. All right, let's go to one. Now this will be I'm two and old agreements. We know the Raiders are a bit of a mess, but I still think offensively, John Gruden, Derek Carr, improved online running game, they can score points when I look at the Colts, So I'm gonna take the Raiders plus seven at Indie. Here's the thing. We are spending so much time talking about Jacoby Brissette, and he's been terrific. Their defense though in Indie two me RJ has been a little bit of a disappointment. People are moving a ball in Indie, so I do think Indie probably wins here, but I do feel like get a better quarterback, I get a touchdown and Indie, I'm not sure if t Y Hilton's gonna play now, so I'm gonna go with the Raiders plus seven. Where do the wise guys land? Now? The duct tape shoe guys would agree, but we're disagreeing on this one, so it bites both ways. Right, here's the thing the now when you're talking about how much you're talking about Dr Kobe Perssett, Now, I listen to your show every year. I haven't heard much about him because I think he's I think he's solid, but I think there's too many great young quarterbacks. No, I hear you. I'm just saying, is the idea that he's getting all this attention to all this love. I would say that the quotes have certainly performed better than expected. Remember after and Drew Luck this season win total when he retired was about seven and a half, So the assumption was the quotes would be a blowout slightly below average team. I think that's been a reevaluation pretty quickly. And you've been a fan of the Coats front office. I think it's it really is a validation, yes, of the front office. It knows no question. There starts a validation of their GM, but I think their ceilings lower and their defense isn't playing that great. Yeah, and you're right. Here's the stat to speak to that. So yards allowed per possession Raiders are twenty ninth, so they're giving up a lot of yards on defense. Coats are twenty eighth, so not as good at d Remember early in the year, and we'll get to this later with the Patriots game. Strength of schedule is so important because when you only play three games. You look at the Cowboys for example, strength of the schedule is horrible, but they still look great. One more thing about the Raiders, and I'm not sure, And I got to say, as an avid listener, it's always like, well, this is going to be the nineteenth thing in a row I say critical of on Gruden, but I love him. But here comes so I'm not sure how much you love Gruden. I'm just saying as a fan, I like him, As a friend, like him as a TV guy, I think he's a little over a ski sometimes as a football operations guy. Well, we'll think about this. You just said the key words on the road early start ten am is where routine discipline matters, or just in general, on the road. Gruden is one and eighth straight up in his tenure. Now second time here two and seven against the spread. Now, early start time makes that even more important, that kind of BELICHICKI and discipline, but you know what else does Next week the Raiders play in London, So now they're getting all these preparations ready at the same time they're flying in the Indy. I'm guessing, and I haven't verified this, they're gonna fly straight to London. So the fact that they're having a double pack and all of the machinations around at all the logistics, I think it's a huge distraction. Last thing is the Raiders, after they lost easily last week, A couple of the players are saying, we can't take this lying down, we can't take this easily, which is code for some of the team doesn't seem to really care all that much. So to me, I think this team could give up on the field potentially if they get down fourteen. So I don't want them plus seven, all right, finally or not Finally my fourth pick, I have two to one agreement. I'm gonna take Arizona at home plus the points against Seattle. You know, first of all, they paid, they faced some pretty good teams. They faced Baltimore and they were feisty. They face Detroit and they were feisty. I think they're showing growth urj every week Seattle. If you didn't watch that game, Seattle got pushed all over the field by New Orleans. They lost special teams, defense and offense. I think Arizona historically keeps it close here and I five five and a half too much. What do the wise guys think? Favorite pick of the week here? Love it? Love it? I'll make I'm gonna make a couple Bowl predictions. This is one of them. Seattle does not go above five hundred this year. I think this team is way overrated. Yeah, you mentioned it. Against the Saints, Seattle did dominate the stats, the stats five hundred fifteen yards against two sixty five eleven more first downs Wilson four hundred plus yards. That said, I think the Saints with Bridgewater not near as good as people think, not near as good as you think. I would guess. And here's the thing about Arizona, and this is kind of a quirky little thing. The second team in the last thirty years to be three and oh against the spread but winless in the wind column the actual win call. So they're actually going down with a fight. Yeah. And I also believe this with a rookie head coach in a rookie quarterback. The locker room is strong because everybody knows they're not going to the super Bowl. They're looking for weekly growth. And I think it's a very good locker room. That's why they're not bailing. They're in these games, they lose them, and they fly home and think we're getting close. I think they think they can win this game. Yeah, And actually looking at it, and I made a little computational error. They didn't cover against Carolina, but what they did do so, But you're right, they have been competitive, especially net and net in the second half. If you look at it, they've been outscored by twenty nine points in the first half and they've actually outscored their opponents by five points in the second half. And I think this has to do with the pace of the offense, whereas you've got a college system that's fast paced, and I think the other teams are struggling in the second half. So this is a little niche. But if you do like Arizona here, I personally would like them more in the second half. In the first and you can actually bet at halftime the second half and if you do like Seattle, I like them much more in the first half. But Net and Net, I agree with you with Arizona. Okay, I'm gonna take the Saints plus two and a half, so I get an agreement for the week against Dallas. So the Saints beat a playoff team Houston, the Saints lost breezing, got a bad whistle, could have beaten LA, and the Saints beat Seattle on the road. All three playoff teams. They have lived in a world of discomfort this year. Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Sean McVay, Pete Carroll. These are winning coaches, Hall of Fame level talents. Dallas Dak has faced the least pressure in the league. It's been nothing but comfort. Now it's Superdome against this defense. I think it's gonna be a little jarring for Dallas, at least in the first half. And I'm gonna take the Saints, who have faced discomfort all season and could be three and ozer. I'm taking them in the points. What are the wise guys think? I think the duck tapes. You guys agree with you. I'm going the other way again. I like Dallas here listen. I is my second, big, big, big statement. Teddy Bridgewater is not a starting quarterback back. I heard you on the show say, oh, yeah, he's not top half of the league. But you know he's a really salt No, he's not a really solid starter. I really don't think so. Now, this is my opinion. Most people disagree with me if you look at his yardage after the catch, because one thing we've learned in the modern NFL, any competent quarterback can complete short passes. If the other team knows that's all you've got, they make it so hard. This is the old and obviously you've come off this is the years have gone by. But the old Dank and Dak and duncan all that stuff. Because really a rookie complete and short passes. Hey, that's the way things are. You can do that if you're competent. What is Bridgewater? Let me ask you, calling, what is Bridgewater done since his injury, even in the preseason, that has shown he can go downfield in every sub season, either the regular season where he played one or two games since or and this year being a good example of that, or even preseasons he's had a yards per attempt below the NFL average is seven point five yards per attempt. He's never above that average. How can that be? He's not going downfield? Yes, but Breeze last two years hasn't gone down field, especially late in the years. I think his poise, his IQ, his coachability, he's a great distributor, he's a reasonable fact. Similarly to Breeze, Drew Brees does not throw the ball down the field plus twenty yards. So they've built an offense on screens and Michael Thomas over the middle possession. And I think it's effective with that defense. Yeah, and I think that there. It's the varying degrees, right, It's it's like the guy who's got twenty pounds on his ballet is heavy, and so is the guy four hundred pounds. I think you're right. Breeze is not going downfield in a massive way, but at least eighteen twenty yard pass is a threat with Bridgewater. I don't know how much of this is Sean Payton's just doesn't want him to lose his confidence, and he's keeping the reins on him, but you would think in the preseason they would let him go downfield. So to me, this is a bet on Dak. And one more thing about Dak. You know, in these next gen stats, a lot of people starting to talk about these wonderful stats, I think in some ways because they actually capture what's happening on the field, not just the yardage. And if you look at Dak and they estimate, okay, based on the difficulty of his passes, and they grade every pass he's thrown, how many should he complete, He's exceeded that significantly. So Dak is becoming as accurate as any quarterback in the NFL, at least based on this season. This guy is playing literally like a superstar at this point. Now, the competition hasn't been great, but I think the Cowboys are better than people think. I like Dallas Lane less than a field goal. Finally, bonus pick, the last pick I was going to make and didn't, Bills plus seven. I would take them against New England. I think Buffalo's defense is better than people think. I think it's excellent. I think they're well coached. The reason I took this out I don't Belichick literally humiliates young quarterbacks, and Josh Allen is not at the level that he can play air free football, and I think he'll make a big mistake. And I just don't trust him because I think New England's defense is as good as it's been in a decade. So I'm not gonna bet this. But I would have taken Bills plus seven. What would the wise guys think our bonus pick? Again? The duct takes, you guys would have agreed. I disagree on this one. I like New England and I'm gonna make my final announcement. I'm retiring betting against Ballichick. I had the Jets last week and that backdoor cover, I'm gonna say that's it. I'm done. And I've been quoting the stat with you with others for years that Ballichick is about sixty percent against his spread. Yeah, it's awesome. Zimmer has actually been better since he started, but Belichick's been second. You know what's amazing. If you actually go back now sixty games, which goes back to twenty sixteen, Belichick is forty two and eighteen against the spread. It's almost incomprehensible that at this time where he has the biggest brand, Brady has the biggest brand. They still are covering when you know everyone wants to beat him, which tell in by definition it's a marketplace. More people beat him, the more expensive the Pats have been. And they're still cheap because they keep covering the spread. Look at how they do in Buffalo. Last fifteen trips, fifteen to Buffalo, they've lost one straight up, only two the Patriots have lost against his spread, So they're good in that spot. And you said, a really good D. Best D of the decade for the Pats, maybe the best D of the decade in the NFL. First defense in NFL history not to allow a touchdown in three straight games to start the season. Oh, by the way, the Super Bowl was the fourth game they didn't allow a touchdown. There. Offensively, think about that, four straight NFL games in the modern era without allowing a touchdown. How many you think about this? How many possessions have opposing teams had against New England this year? Yeah, so if you look at the possession count, there's been thirty nine possessions. How many times that people scored on it once? I mean it's just I know they're not facing great teams, but they faced the Steelers. That's insane. And then they think about this. The second best in that stat the Bills six out of thirty seven possessions. So the Pats could have given up not one, but two, three, four, and five and still been leading the league in possessions allowed to score for the opponent. And I'll tell you this, I believe the Patriots last thing are gonna be on offense like they were with Gronk last year. Gronk was like the car. A guy like you that can have three or four cars. I know you don't tell you don't even buy coffee I know you won't even buy coffee out. But if you have that third or fourth car, you only bring it out if it's sunny on a Sunday, if everything's right, it got to be sixty degrees put the top down. Well that's how they were with Gronk, right. I think they're gonna be running power football the Pats when they don't need to have Brady in harm's way, and then it's gonna be like, huh, they didn't really get much margin there, huh. But then when they need it, Brady's gonna show things that he hasn't showing the rest of the time. Why because why beat him up at his age? This is unprecedented. He even in his late thirties, was falling off at the end of the years. I think they try to save him. But this game, a statement game against an undefeated team. I think you see more offense from Brady than you have the rest of this year. So I've got three to two agreement. The bonus pick. I like the Bills, he likes the Patriots. R J Bell Pregame dot Com on Fox Sports Radio at r J and Vegas. Good talking to you, Bud. Thank you