From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Friday, July four, twenty twenty five. Unions are throwing their weight around in the public servants and the government seems to approve. The Albanese government has put the hard word on agency chiefs to meet regularly with union bosses through a powerful new committee. A man charged with child sex offenses in Melbourne has been revealed as the president of an amateur radio club that worked with local Scouts. It's believed Michael Simon Wilson was connected to alleged pedophile childcare worker Joshua Phillips, who was this week charged with dozens of offenses. Those stories alive right now at the Australian dot com dot au. What's really going on in Iran? Does it have a viable nuclear program? How deeply involved at China and Russia in helping their Today Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan on the truth about the most secretive regime on Earth. It took a matter of minutes, but we'll be talking about it for years. The June twenty twenty two raid by the United States military on Iran's nuclear facilities for dou Natanz and Isfahan was supposed to leave nothing but rubble. It's been obliterated, totally obliterated. But then US defense spies said not so much.

From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Friday, July four, twenty twenty five. Unions are throwing their weight around in the public servants and the government seems to approve. The Albanese government has put the hard word on agency chiefs to meet regularly with union bosses through a powerful new committee. A man charged with child sex offenses in Melbourne has been revealed as the president of an amateur radio club that worked with local Scouts. It's believed Michael Simon Wilson was connected to alleged pedophile childcare worker Joshua Phillips, who was this week charged with dozens of offenses. Those stories alive right now at the Australian dot com dot au. What's really going on in Iran? Does it have a viable nuclear program? How deeply involved at China and Russia in helping their Today Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan on the truth about the most secretive regime on Earth. It took a matter of minutes, but we'll be talking about it for years. The June twenty twenty two raid by the United States military on Iran's nuclear facilities for dou Natanz and Isfahan was supposed to leave nothing but rubble. It's been obliterated, totally obliterated. But then US defense spies said not so much.

A preliminary Pentagon report indicates the damage was limited, seeing Iran's nuclear program was only set back a few months.

A preliminary Pentagon report indicates the damage was limited, seeing Iran's nuclear program was only set back a few months.

And then their boss, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth doubled down on the rubble. You better get a big shovel and go really deep because Iran's nuclear program is obliterated. And now the CIA says that's right.

And then their boss, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth doubled down on the rubble. You better get a big shovel and go really deep because Iran's nuclear program is obliterated. And now the CIA says that's right.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a statement saying several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a statement saying several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.

It's confusing, and when things are confusing, we bring in the foreign editor Greg Sheridan to make it all clear.

It's confusing, and when things are confusing, we bring in the foreign editor Greg Sheridan to make it all clear.

The truth is clear. Nobody knows. That's a very unsatisfactory answer. The truth is nobody knows the true extent of the damage at Fourdah, not even the Iranians, because nobody has been down there to dig through the rubble. Were any of the facilities left intact inside Fourdoh? What happened to the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium enriched nearly to weapons grade, which the Uranians have as a stockpile, which they had stored in Fourdo because they thought it was safer there. Did they get it out? Has it been forever encased in a sort of landslide caused by this bunker bomb? The Americans put twelve bunker busters onto four Todoh, and a lot of them down a ventilation shaft. I wouldn't have liked to be at the bottom of that myself. It's very clear they've done big, big damage. But I'm sure Trump was exaggerating when he says they totally obliterated the facilities. But more than exaggeration, the truth is we just don't know.

The truth is clear. Nobody knows. That's a very unsatisfactory answer. The truth is nobody knows the true extent of the damage at Fourdah, not even the Iranians, because nobody has been down there to dig through the rubble. Were any of the facilities left intact inside Fourdoh? What happened to the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium enriched nearly to weapons grade, which the Uranians have as a stockpile, which they had stored in Fourdo because they thought it was safer there. Did they get it out? Has it been forever encased in a sort of landslide caused by this bunker bomb? The Americans put twelve bunker busters onto four Todoh, and a lot of them down a ventilation shaft. I wouldn't have liked to be at the bottom of that myself. It's very clear they've done big, big damage. But I'm sure Trump was exaggerating when he says they totally obliterated the facilities. But more than exaggeration, the truth is we just don't know.

Before those strikes happened, there was talk that if they were dropped on a place like Fourdo, essentially a nuclear facility inside a mountain, that they would destroy the mountain. In fact, what we saw from surveillance photographs afterwards were quite neat holes in the mountain, and all that damage is underground. When you saw those images, Greg, were you surprised that the mountain at photo for example, had not been destroyed.

Before those strikes happened, there was talk that if they were dropped on a place like Fourdo, essentially a nuclear facility inside a mountain, that they would destroy the mountain. In fact, what we saw from surveillance photographs afterwards were quite neat holes in the mountain, and all that damage is underground. When you saw those images, Greg, were you surprised that the mountain at photo for example, had not been destroyed.

No, But I'm not claiming to have great technical expertise on what happens to a mountain when you put a bunker buster inside it. These bombs are quite unique, and if they weren't so distractive, they'd be quite beautiful. They weigh thirty thousand pounds about fourteen thousand kilograms. I think about half that weight is actually explosive, So they are the biggest non nuclear bombs in the world. They are guided by a version of GPS to a very precise target, and then they burrow sixty meters underground before they blow up. Now, I guess it's like building the Snowy hydro project or something. If you go far enough underground, you won't disturb the surface of the mountain that much. But we know that uranium in Richmond's cascades are very very delicate machines. In the past is rather than the United States have been able to wipe them out with computer viruses just to make them vibrate in the wrong way, and then they sort of have a nervous collapse. They can't deal with the vibrations and completely stop functioning. Now, the National Atomic Energy Agency thinks that whatever happened, that would be enough to destroy those cascades. The question would be really whether the Iranians have other cascades somewhere else. There's another mountain, Pickaxe Mountain, not far from the Tans, I think, where the Iranians are said to be building the secret tunnels and so on. I think the truth is the Americans in Israelis will keep a very close watch on this, and if they think the Iranians are getting close to reviving the program, they'll do it again. But there are a lot of other fascinating things out of the war. I mean, the Israelis completely suppressed Iranian air defense, so the Israelis and the Americans had complete freedom of movement across the Iranian skies. The level of knowledge that the Israelis had about where every nuclear scientist was, every member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I mean, the one telephone call I'd hate to get in Iran would be congratulations, you've been promoted to the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I mean, I certainly make sure my affairs were in order. If I got that, well, guess what, You've been seconded to the nuclear development program. I think those would be very unattractive phone calls. The other thing, Claire, is it seems there's a very high consensus that the so called converter was destroyed. Now, to make a weapon, you have to convert highly enriched uranium into metal. But on the reporting, the Uranians can't make a converter. They were given one or presumably sold it by China quite some time ago, So either China or Russia or North Korea would have to consciously supply them with another converter. So, in a sense, it doesn't matter how many cascades they've got and how many tons of enriched uranium. If they want to make an actual nuclear warhead, they'll need a converter again, as well as a fully functioning program. Well, they might get one next week from China, or China might decide that it doesn't want to have an Islamic bomb just nearby anyway after all, and they may never get one.

No, But I'm not claiming to have great technical expertise on what happens to a mountain when you put a bunker buster inside it. These bombs are quite unique, and if they weren't so distractive, they'd be quite beautiful. They weigh thirty thousand pounds about fourteen thousand kilograms. I think about half that weight is actually explosive, So they are the biggest non nuclear bombs in the world. They are guided by a version of GPS to a very precise target, and then they burrow sixty meters underground before they blow up. Now, I guess it's like building the Snowy hydro project or something. If you go far enough underground, you won't disturb the surface of the mountain that much. But we know that uranium in Richmond's cascades are very very delicate machines. In the past is rather than the United States have been able to wipe them out with computer viruses just to make them vibrate in the wrong way, and then they sort of have a nervous collapse. They can't deal with the vibrations and completely stop functioning. Now, the National Atomic Energy Agency thinks that whatever happened, that would be enough to destroy those cascades. The question would be really whether the Iranians have other cascades somewhere else. There's another mountain, Pickaxe Mountain, not far from the Tans, I think, where the Iranians are said to be building the secret tunnels and so on. I think the truth is the Americans in Israelis will keep a very close watch on this, and if they think the Iranians are getting close to reviving the program, they'll do it again. But there are a lot of other fascinating things out of the war. I mean, the Israelis completely suppressed Iranian air defense, so the Israelis and the Americans had complete freedom of movement across the Iranian skies. The level of knowledge that the Israelis had about where every nuclear scientist was, every member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I mean, the one telephone call I'd hate to get in Iran would be congratulations, you've been promoted to the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I mean, I certainly make sure my affairs were in order. If I got that, well, guess what, You've been seconded to the nuclear development program. I think those would be very unattractive phone calls. The other thing, Claire, is it seems there's a very high consensus that the so called converter was destroyed. Now, to make a weapon, you have to convert highly enriched uranium into metal. But on the reporting, the Uranians can't make a converter. They were given one or presumably sold it by China quite some time ago, So either China or Russia or North Korea would have to consciously supply them with another converter. So, in a sense, it doesn't matter how many cascades they've got and how many tons of enriched uranium. If they want to make an actual nuclear warhead, they'll need a converter again, as well as a fully functioning program. Well, they might get one next week from China, or China might decide that it doesn't want to have an Islamic bomb just nearby anyway after all, and they may never get one.

Iran's President Massud Pozeshkian has now signed a law saying that Iran won't cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Does that mean anything in practice? Greg Or were they not cooperating in the first.

Iran's President Massud Pozeshkian has now signed a law saying that Iran won't cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Does that mean anything in practice? Greg Or were they not cooperating in the first.

Place, Well, they were partly cooperating and they are partly not cooperating, So they did allow IAEA inspectors in to some extent, so that meant you could keep some surveillance on some of their facilities. A rag nation like Iran can still do things in secret at other facilities, but it has to be a bit careful of what it's doing under the eye of the IAEA. It's completely inconceivable that while they are not cooperating with the IAEA, they get any real relief from sanctions. I mean, people say, if he Ran really wanted a nuclear weapon, it would have had one by now. But that ignores two or three fundamental things. First of all, the Americans of the Israelis constantly interfered with the Iranian program. The Israelis engaged in targeted assassinations, physical sabotage, and cyber sabotage that was very, very effective. And Secondly, the Iranians lacked money and resources because they were subject to such crippling sanctions and pulling out of the International Atomic Energy Agency so definitively guarantees that they'll be subject to those sanctions. And it doesn't matter who succeeds Donald Trump, it could be Alexandra or Caazio Cortez won't she won't lift the sanctions if they're not cooperating with the IAEA.

Place, Well, they were partly cooperating and they are partly not cooperating, So they did allow IAEA inspectors in to some extent, so that meant you could keep some surveillance on some of their facilities. A rag nation like Iran can still do things in secret at other facilities, but it has to be a bit careful of what it's doing under the eye of the IAEA. It's completely inconceivable that while they are not cooperating with the IAEA, they get any real relief from sanctions. I mean, people say, if he Ran really wanted a nuclear weapon, it would have had one by now. But that ignores two or three fundamental things. First of all, the Americans of the Israelis constantly interfered with the Iranian program. The Israelis engaged in targeted assassinations, physical sabotage, and cyber sabotage that was very, very effective. And Secondly, the Iranians lacked money and resources because they were subject to such crippling sanctions and pulling out of the International Atomic Energy Agency so definitively guarantees that they'll be subject to those sanctions. And it doesn't matter who succeeds Donald Trump, it could be Alexandra or Caazio Cortez won't she won't lift the sanctions if they're not cooperating with the IAEA.

Coming up? Is there a chance Iran's regime could really fall? One of my favorite TV shows, Greg, I think I've tried to get you to watch it in the past. I just want to talk to you about it, so you are going to have to watch it as your homework. It's called Tehran. It's on Apple TV Plus, and it's about a smoking hot Israeli female Mossad spy who's sent to Iran to penetrate the country and try to destroy all their ambitions. Her cover is blown as as soon as she gets in the country, and she's being hunted by the head of the Revolutionary Guard. What emerges over the course of the show is that even though senior officials in the Iranian government are uncomfortable with the regime, don't like the repression of women, they are deeply patriotic and they don't want Iran to suffer or to collapse. Is that part of the problem here for Israel that we can talk about regime change in Iran, but even Iranians who don't like the government are very very patriotic.

Coming up? Is there a chance Iran's regime could really fall? One of my favorite TV shows, Greg, I think I've tried to get you to watch it in the past. I just want to talk to you about it, so you are going to have to watch it as your homework. It's called Tehran. It's on Apple TV Plus, and it's about a smoking hot Israeli female Mossad spy who's sent to Iran to penetrate the country and try to destroy all their ambitions. Her cover is blown as as soon as she gets in the country, and she's being hunted by the head of the Revolutionary Guard. What emerges over the course of the show is that even though senior officials in the Iranian government are uncomfortable with the regime, don't like the repression of women, they are deeply patriotic and they don't want Iran to suffer or to collapse. Is that part of the problem here for Israel that we can talk about regime change in Iran, but even Iranians who don't like the government are very very patriotic.

Well clear, that's true in a way, but I mean everyone is patriotic. I mean, Greenland is a patriotic you know, most Landers are patrion everybody's patriotic. I think all the talk of regime change, both by the Israelis and the Americans was just a bit of bluff, really. I mean it's just designed to put a bit of psychological pressure on the Iranian government. I mean, if you are seriously pursuing regime change, you try to kill the government and you back people to replace the government. Well, the Israelis were very meticulous in not targeting the civilian leadership of Iran. If either of the Americans or the Israelis had been pursuing regime change, they would have run a different kind of operation, and they would have tried to identify the Iranians who they would have liked to take power. Now, the Iranian society is very complex and very diverse, but everything we can know leads us to believe that they hate the regime. Ninety million people, very ancient society, ethnically, quite diverse. They're not a Persians, they're certainly not all share. You get regime change in a society like that if there's a popular uprising and the security forces won't shoot their own people. Where there have been a lot of popular uprisings in Iran over the last twenty years, but the security forces have always been quite happy to arrest, beat to death and shoot the citizens engaging in the demonstrations. But another way you get regime change is if there's a division within the elite leadership. Now some of the elite leadership will be saying, what did we get out of these hundreds of billions of dollars that we invested in Russian defense systems, missile capabilities, nuclear weapons programs. The Great Satan and the Little Satan between them have just wiped it all out. Now, none of that guarantees you're going to get change in Iran, And you could get change that is worse. You could get a worse government, you know, a government which became needless. But I think this war will have exacerbated the divisions within Iran. There is a little bit of a rally around the flag effect, but there's no evidence of any affection for this government. This is a This is a widely despised government by a pretty lictric population.

Well clear, that's true in a way, but I mean everyone is patriotic. I mean, Greenland is a patriotic you know, most Landers are patrion everybody's patriotic. I think all the talk of regime change, both by the Israelis and the Americans was just a bit of bluff, really. I mean it's just designed to put a bit of psychological pressure on the Iranian government. I mean, if you are seriously pursuing regime change, you try to kill the government and you back people to replace the government. Well, the Israelis were very meticulous in not targeting the civilian leadership of Iran. If either of the Americans or the Israelis had been pursuing regime change, they would have run a different kind of operation, and they would have tried to identify the Iranians who they would have liked to take power. Now, the Iranian society is very complex and very diverse, but everything we can know leads us to believe that they hate the regime. Ninety million people, very ancient society, ethnically, quite diverse. They're not a Persians, they're certainly not all share. You get regime change in a society like that if there's a popular uprising and the security forces won't shoot their own people. Where there have been a lot of popular uprisings in Iran over the last twenty years, but the security forces have always been quite happy to arrest, beat to death and shoot the citizens engaging in the demonstrations. But another way you get regime change is if there's a division within the elite leadership. Now some of the elite leadership will be saying, what did we get out of these hundreds of billions of dollars that we invested in Russian defense systems, missile capabilities, nuclear weapons programs. The Great Satan and the Little Satan between them have just wiped it all out. Now, none of that guarantees you're going to get change in Iran, And you could get change that is worse. You could get a worse government, you know, a government which became needless. But I think this war will have exacerbated the divisions within Iran. There is a little bit of a rally around the flag effect, but there's no evidence of any affection for this government. This is a This is a widely despised government by a pretty lictric population.

Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read all the latest from the Middle East, as well as all the nation's best news, sport and politics anytime at the Australian dot com. Dou Yah

Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read all the latest from the Middle East, as well as all the nation's best news, sport and politics anytime at the Australian dot com. Dou Yah