Tensions and conspiracy theories in the Middle East as an aged chopper carrying Iran’s president and foreign minister crashes in heavy fog.
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This episode of The Front is presented by Claire Harvey, produced by Kristen Amiet and edited by Lia Tsamoglou. Original music is composed by Jasper Leak.
From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Tuesday, May twenty one. The convicted sex offender will walk three years before his prison sentence was due to end, and it's all because of an error by act authorities. Victims of Stephen Leonard Mitchell say the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions was warned about the child sex offender's bungled plea deal, but they were too preoccupied by the rape trial of former Liberal staffer Bruce Lamman to fix it. You can read that story exclusively at the Australian dot com dot u Labor wants to slash the superannuation of federal judges, but barristers and legal experts say the new legislation could compromise the judiciary's independence and push judges to state courts in search of to pay. Iran's hardline Islamic regime has suffered a major blow after President Ebrahim Raci was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday night. That's the assessment of The Australian's chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart. In today's episode, Cam unpacks what Rasi's death means for the region, and why conspiracy theories are blossoming. One of the oldest civilizations on Earth, a society glittering with knowledge and sophistication, A brutally repressive regime with ambitions to change the world.
Here for seven minutes, saying communication with gap, do what you have to do.
Iran is one of the most mysterious and intriguing places on Earth, ruled by men who've vowed to destroy Western civilization. No wonder it's inspired a legion of espionage thrillers, like the Apple TV series Tehran, which follows a wildly beautiful young agent of the Israeli spy agency Mossad as she infiltrates Iran in the attempt to destroy its nuclear program. Mosat sent me to Tehran on a mission, but then everything went wrong.
We have to go south.
That's why, when on Sunday night a helicopter carrying Iran's president and foreign minister went down, thoughts immediately ran to conspiracy. Was this an assassination? This operation?
We need to stop him?
Called In Iran's spectacularly beautiful northwest, the rugged mountains give way to expansive plains when the weather turns those peaks are covered in thick, heavy fog, and it was into this fog that the chopper carrying President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hassin Emir Abdola Yum vanished.
For we know that President Ibrahim Raisi was returning to Iran from a trip to Azerbaijan, where he was inspecting infrastructure projects when his helicopter crashed in what we've been told is quite mountainous terrain in a remote part of Iran.
A large scale rescue operations sprang into action, with dogs and drones to search the areas too dark, too dangerous, or too difficult for humans to traverse. On Monday, the chief of Iran's Red Crescent humanitarian organization said the chopper, which had evaded detection for hours, had been found, but the situation was not good. I'm joined by the Australian's chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart. We're speaking on Monday afternoon, and this situation is very fluid. Cam, who is Ebrahim Raisi? What does a president do in Iran?
Claire?
The president in Iran is the second most powerful person in that country. He is subordinate only to the so called Supreme Leader that is Iatola Kamani and ioler. Kamani sets the parameters of what happens in Iran, the military policy, political policy, social policy, theocratic policy, etc. Etc. And he is appointed by clerics. He's not a popularly appointed leader, and so it's an authoritarian country. The president is elected by the public, but they're considered widely to be sham elections. So therefore the Ayatola, who is a very conservative religious hardliner, only chooses as his president a conservative religious hardliners, which is precisely what President Rays he was.
As we began speaking, Iranian rescuers announced that they'd found the wreckage of the helicopter, but no sign so far of any survivors. What's the context of this in terms of Iran's capability? Would they have top of the range helicopters that could fly safely in folly conditions like the ones that are being reported out of Iran.
Iran has very old equipment in lots of areas, and surprisingly, this helicopter was actually quite old. It's a very old helicopter. It's one you'd be quite surprised, frank that they putting the president and the foreign minister and very important officials into It remains to be seen, of course, the exact cause of the crash. We've seen the vision and footage, and certainly the weather is very bad. There's lots of fog and it seems to initially be being blamed on bad weather. But of course with this sort of thing, especially with Iran's circumstance at the moment in the Middle East and the war that we've got with Hamas Israel, Claire, there will be a lot of conspiracy views which are always already bouncing around the Internet.
Let's dive right into those conspiracy theories then, Camp, Why would Israel be involved in this in any way?
Look Iran and Israel that the long term enmity between the two countries has really peaked, Claire, since the Hamas Israel conflicts, which began, of course on October seven and is becoming more and more tense. Iran has authorized its proxies like K. S. Bala in Lebanon and also its proxies in Syria and Iraq to launch short term attacks on Israel through missiles, et cetera. But last month it really became extremely heated when Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel. Hundreds of drones and missiles it fired towards Israel in retaliation for an Israeli attack on its forces based in Syria. Now, while that attack was very unsuccessful, they were all but a handful were actually shot down by the Israelis before they got to Israel. That was a real turning point in Iran is Iran's history to actually make a direct attack on Israel, and I think that really underlines how under President Raisi and this Islamic regime, Iran has hardened its position on Israel.
Cam One of the other conspiracy theories is that this is about the power plays within Iran itself. As you told us, the supreme leader of Iran is a religious figure, the Iola Ali Kamena. What are the prospects that with the apparent death of President Raysi that things changed significantly in Iran?
There will certainly be a lot of people outside Iran, Claire who will hope that this will lead to some form of change. It will certainly lead to a power struggle within the ruling elite over who actually replaces him. As presidents under Iranian law, there'll be elections within about fifty days for a new president. But these elections are widely considered to be rigged, so it's most likely the Supreme Leader will choose to a degree who that candidate might be. But even so, there will be some tensions within this elite between more liberal forces and the hardliners as well, and that will be fascinating to see how that plays out. Whether we actually see any visibility of those tensions, it's not at all certain that we would, because things are very much a closed chop in Iran at that high level. But certainly opponents of Iran's Islamic clerical system will be hoping that this will lead to some sort of greater liberalization among the ruling elite. But I think that is probably a fairly optimistic assumption.
Coming up what raised his death means for Iran's many proxy militias. Subscribers to The Australian are the first to hear breaking news updates like Biswan. A subscription also includes newsletters tailored to your interests and invitations to special live events where you can hear experts like camp do their thing in person. Check us out at the Australian dot com dot ay and we'll be back after this break. According to State TV Iran's Supreme leader Iatola Ali Khamane commented publicly on the helicopter crash that killed President Racey late on Sunday. He said the nation of Iran should not be worried and anxious. No disruption will occur in the country's affairs. Thousands of people, mostly men, took to the streets of the Iranian capital Tehran on Sunday night to pray for Racey and his fellow travelers. Under President Racei, Iran has hardened its treatment of Iranians too, particularly women. There have been reports of a serious crackdown on rules like women wearing hit jobs in public. There have been women who have disappeared from the streets of Iran after being photographed not wearing head coverings. In those terms, Cam who is Ebrahim Rayci? Is he a hardline conservative?
He's a very hardline conservative, So RIALSI. He was the guy who was basically authorizing that crackdown, and more than five hundred people died in that terrible street violence that we saw and impression that occurred towards those protesters. So I think his death will certainly not be mourned by a lot of younger Iranians. There's an inherent tension in Iran today between younger Iranians who love Western clothes, want a more Western lifestyle, want greater freedoms, and the old Islamic mullers, the ruling elites. Basically, and Rasi represented absolutely the old style Islamic hardliner, so there will be no mourning of him from many younger Iranians.
Instability in Iran is obviously a big story for the whole region and for the world, because Iran controls or has influence over militias in a whole lot of countries, from Yemen to Lebanon, to Syria to Iraq. Can we talk about some of those, for example, in Yemen, that's where the Huti rebels are based, who have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea. What do you think his death will mean for those Iranian proxy forces throughout the Middle East?
Well, this is probably the most important single question I think to arise from his death because since the October seven Israeli Hamas conflict, Iran has played a very curious role in the sense that it's encouraged its terror proxies in the region like hes Bollah, and also its proxies in Iraq. And Syria to attack Israel and in fact US forces in the region too, but also, as far as he has bliss concerned, to attack Israel in such a manner as to really distract Israel, but not actually in such large degree as to create a larger conflicts. In fact, Iran had quite a finely balanced policy of provoking Israel since October seven with its proxies in the region without triggering an actual war. Now that is a deliberate and finely balanced policy coming out of Tehran, coming out of the Islamic regime there. Now, whether President Raesi's death will change that balance is a critical question for the region.
Is there a possibility that this makes everything worse in the Middle East, that it escalates tensions.
Look, if it were able to be proved or shown that in fact the crash was a sabotage, I think that would be a very dangerous situation for the region if the Islamic regime chose to blame Israel or the US or a Western country, because that would really ratchet up the tensions enormously at a time when tensions are already massive over the Israeli Hamas conflict, over the constant bombing of northern Israel by Hezbollah and the instability on the West Bank and with the Huthis in Yemen. I mean, the whole Middle East isn't a tinderbox really, and I just think that if there was a confirmation that this was an act of sabotage, that would be a very dangerous position for the region.
Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. To read the latest updates almost developing story and for all the nation's best journalism, visit the Australian dot com dot at you