If an election were held today, the coalition Government would likely be returned to power and not by a narrow margin. A new NZ Herald–Motu Research Poll of Polls model suggests the Government has an 88.3% chance of winning a second term, with support across National, Act and New Zealand First holding steady.

NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan joins The Front Page to talk through the latest results, and how Winston Peters could once again be kingmaker come November 7.