Could the November 2026 US midterms reshape Donald Trump’s presidency—and how far would the consequences travel beyond America?


Dr John Bruni welcomes Professor Scott Lucas to The Focus for a discussion of the prospect of a Democratic “blue wave”, the pressures facing the Republican Party, and the capacity of America’s institutions to hold presidential power accountable.


At the centre of the conversation is a question with global implications: if Trump faces a serious electoral setback, what happens next?


The discussion explores Republican loyalty, JD Vance’s political future, election integrity, press freedom and the relationship between domestic political pressure and America’s behaviour abroad. For Australia and other US allies, these questions have direct implications for the reliability of American leadership and the assumptions underpinning their security.


Show Notes:


ABOUT SCOTT LUCAS


Professor Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, and Professor Emeritus of International Politics at the University of Birmingham. He is also the founder and editor of EA WorldView, which provides news and analysis of US politics and international affairs.


An academic and journalist, Scott specialises in American politics and foreign policy, media and propaganda, and intelligence services. He brings decades of experience to examining presidential power, the resilience of democratic institutions and the global consequences of political change in Washington.


Read Scott’s analysis at EA WorldView.


Have your say: Would a major Republican defeat weaken Trump’s hold on the party? And should Australia be doing more to prepare for uncertainty in Washington?


Watch The Focus: https://www.youtube.com/@thefocus_SAGEIntl


Explore SAGE International: https://sageinternational.com.au


Follow The Focus on your preferred podcast platform, leave a review and share this episode.
Host: Dr John Bruni Guest: Professor Scott Lucas Producers: Neil Smart & Lin Siah A podcast of SAGE International.

Challenge the assumption, test the system, identify the consequence  

Could the November 2026 US midterms reshape Donald Trump&rsquo;s presidency&mdash;and how far would the consequences travel beyond America?
 Dr John Bruni welcomes Professor Scott Lucas to The Focus for a discussion of the prospect of a Democratic &ldquo;blue wave&rdquo;, the pressures facing the Republican Party, and the capacity of America&rsquo;s institutions to hold presidential power accountable.
 At the centre of the conversation is a question with global implications: if Trump faces a serious electoral setback, what happens next?
 The discussion explores Republican loyalty, JD Vance&rsquo;s political future, election integrity, press freedom and the relationship between domestic political pressure and America&rsquo;s behaviour abroad. For Australia and other US allies, these questions have direct implications for the reliability of American leadership and the assumptions underpinning their security.
 Show Notes:
 ABOUT SCOTT LUCAS
 Professor Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, and Professor Emeritus of International Politics at the University of Birmingham. He is also the founder and editor of EA WorldView, which provides news and analysis of US politics and international affairs.
 An academic and journalist, Scott specialises in American politics and foreign policy, media and propaganda, and intelligence services. He brings decades of experience to examining presidential power, the resilience of democratic institutions and the global consequences of political change in Washington.
 Read Scott&rsquo;s analysis at EA WorldView.
 Have your say: Would a major Republican defeat weaken Trump&rsquo;s hold on the party? And should Australia be doing more to prepare for uncertainty in Washington?
 Watch The Focus: https://www.youtube.com/@thefocus_SAGEIntl
 Explore SAGE International: https://sageinternational.com.au
 Follow The Focus on your preferred podcast platform, leave a review and share this episode. Host: Dr John Bruni Guest: Professor Scott Lucas Producers: Neil Smart &amp; Lin Siah A podcast of SAGE International.
Challenge the assumption, test the system, identify the consequence &nbsp;

The Focus is the flagship current affairs podcast of SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical  think tank.

Hosted by Dr. John Bruni—a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media—The Focus brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for Jane’s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.

Produced by Neil Smart, The Focus cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus&nbsp;is the flagship current affairs podcast of&nbsp;SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical &nbsp;think tank.
Hosted by&nbsp;Dr. John Bruni&mdash;a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media&mdash;The Focus&nbsp;brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the&nbsp;Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for&nbsp;Jane&rsquo;s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.
Produced by&nbsp;Neil Smart,&nbsp;The Focus&nbsp;cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus

Trump’s November Nightmare? | Scott Lucas

Can military superiority compensate for bad strategy?


In this special episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Sir Lawrence Freedman—one of the world’s foremost authorities on strategy and war—about the strategic failures shaping today’s increasingly interconnected conflicts.


Using the Iran War as a starting point, Sir Lawrence explains why strategy remains an art rather than a science, why overwhelming military power cannot guarantee a satisfactory political outcome, and why states must consider how a war will end before they begin it.


The conversation examines whether Iran has proved more strategically effective than the United States, the internal struggle over Iranian policy, the independence of the Houthis, and the growing connections between the conflicts involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine.

John and Sir Lawrence also discuss:


• The difference between military action and political strategy • Bismarck and Moltke’s disagreement during the Franco-Prussian War

 • Pete Hegseth and the dangers of strategic boasting • The emerging Adversarial Entente 

• Why the current disorder may benefit China • Europe’s capacity to defend itself against Russia 

• America’s changing relationship with its allies • The “hurting stalemate” in Ukraine • SAGE International’s Threshold Conditioning model • The danger of escalation and war by miscalculation

 • China’s strategy towards Taiwan 

• How Australia can resist coercion below the threshold of war 

• The most important lesson for the next generation of strategists


This is a wide-ranging discussion about the enduring relationship between force, politics and strategic judgement—and what happens when governments possess enormous military power but lack a realistic political end state.

ABOUT SIR LAWRENCE FREEDMAN

Sir Lawrence Freedman is one of the world’s leading scholars of strategy and war. His influential books include Strategy: A History, Command and The Future of War. His work has shaped contemporary thinking about military power, political decision-making and the changing character of conflict.

Can military superiority compensate for bad strategy?
 In this special episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Sir Lawrence Freedman&mdash;one of the world&rsquo;s foremost authorities on strategy and war&mdash;about the strategic failures shaping today&rsquo;s increasingly interconnected conflicts.
 Using the Iran War as a starting point, Sir Lawrence explains why strategy remains an art rather than a science, why overwhelming military power cannot guarantee a satisfactory political outcome, and why states must consider how a war will end before they begin it.
 The conversation examines whether Iran has proved more strategically effective than the United States, the internal struggle over Iranian policy, the independence of the Houthis, and the growing connections between the conflicts involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine.
John and Sir Lawrence also discuss:
 &bull; The difference between military action and political strategy &bull; Bismarck and Moltke&rsquo;s disagreement during the Franco-Prussian War
 &bull; Pete Hegseth and the dangers of strategic boasting &bull; The emerging Adversarial Entente 
&bull; Why the current disorder may benefit China &bull; Europe&rsquo;s capacity to defend itself against Russia 
&bull; America&rsquo;s changing relationship with its allies &bull; The &ldquo;hurting stalemate&rdquo; in Ukraine &bull; SAGE International&rsquo;s Threshold Conditioning model &bull; The danger of escalation and war by miscalculation
 &bull; China&rsquo;s strategy towards Taiwan 
&bull; How Australia can resist coercion below the threshold of war 
&bull; The most important lesson for the next generation of strategists
 This is a wide-ranging discussion about the enduring relationship between force, politics and strategic judgement&mdash;and what happens when governments possess enormous military power but lack a realistic political end state.
ABOUT SIR LAWRENCE FREEDMAN
Sir Lawrence Freedman is one of the world&rsquo;s leading scholars of strategy and war. His influential books include Strategy: A History, Command and The Future of War. His work has shaped contemporary thinking about military power, political decision-making and the changing character of conflict.

Strategy in the 21st Century

Australia is one of the world’s most ethnically diverse societies—but is it truly multicultural?

In Episode 116 of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Associate Professor Salvatore Babones, political sociologist at the University of Sydney, about immigration, assimilation and what he calls “the multicultural myth.”

Babones argues that Australia is a multiracial society held together by a broadly shared national culture—not a collection of separate cultures living under entirely different social rules. He explains why most Australians may be “secret assimilationists,” how the language of multiculturalism can nevertheless serve a valuable social purpose, and why importing historical ethnic conflicts can undermine cohesion.


SHOW NOTES & FURTHER READING

About Salvatore Babones

Associate Professor Salvatore Babones is a political sociologist at the University of Sydney. His research and commentary examine democracy, social cohesion, immigration, education and the political challenges confronting contemporary Western societies. He is the author or editor of numerous books and writes regularly for Australian and international publications.


Salvatore Babones — “Monoculturalism Is Not a Dirty Word”

The article underpinning Salvatore’s argument that Australia can be a multiracial society while maintaining a shared national culture. 

Dr John Bruni — “The AfD and Meeting Reality” Related analysis examining Germany’s migration debate, the rise of the AfD and the increasingly contentious concept of remigration.

https://jbruni.substack.com/p/when-remigration-meets-reality

 

Australia is one of the world&rsquo;s most ethnically diverse societies&mdash;but is it truly multicultural?
In Episode 116 of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Associate Professor Salvatore Babones, political sociologist at the University of Sydney, about immigration, assimilation and what he calls &ldquo;the multicultural myth.&rdquo;
Babones argues that Australia is a multiracial society held together by a broadly shared national culture&mdash;not a collection of separate cultures living under entirely different social rules. He explains why most Australians may be &ldquo;secret assimilationists,&rdquo; how the language of multiculturalism can nevertheless serve a valuable social purpose, and why importing historical ethnic conflicts can undermine cohesion.
 SHOW NOTES &amp; FURTHER READING
About Salvatore Babones
Associate Professor Salvatore Babones is a political sociologist at the University of Sydney. His research and commentary examine democracy, social cohesion, immigration, education and the political challenges confronting contemporary Western societies. He is the author or editor of numerous books and writes regularly for Australian and international publications.
 Salvatore Babones &mdash; &ldquo;Monoculturalism Is Not a Dirty Word&rdquo;
The article underpinning Salvatore&rsquo;s argument that Australia can be a multiracial society while maintaining a shared national culture. 
Dr John Bruni &mdash; &ldquo;The AfD and Meeting Reality&rdquo; Related analysis examining Germany&rsquo;s migration debate, the rise of the AfD and the increasingly contentious concept of remigration.
https://jbruni.substack.com/p/when-remigration-meets-reality
&nbsp;

The Multicultural Myth

On September 10, 2001, the United States stood at the height of its power.

Twenty-five years later, what happened to the American moment?

In this special 25th-anniversary episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni sits down with historian and political scientist Professor Roy Casagranda for a sweeping — and at times fiercely provocative — conversation about America before 9/11, the choices it made afterwards, and the world those decisions helped create.

Was the invasion of Iraq the great strategic mistake of the post-9/11 era?

Did two decades of war give China the time and strategic space it needed to catch up with the United States?

How did Washington’s relationship with Vladimir Putin unravel?

And is Donald Trump dismantling the post-9/11 order — or is he ultimately a product of it?

From George H. W. Bush and Boris Yeltsin to George W. Bush, Iraq, Afghanistan, Putin, China, Trump, Iran and the remilitarisation of Germany, Casagranda challenges conventional accounts of the last quarter-century of American power.

Some of his arguments are deliberately contentious. That is precisely the point of this conversation: challenge the assumption, test the argument, and examine the consequences.

Twenty-five years after the attacks that changed America and the world, one question hangs over the entire discussion:

DID THE UNITED STATES USE ITS EXTRAORDINARY POWER WISELY AFTER 9/11 — AND IF NOT, CAN IT RECOVER WHAT IT LOST?


ABOUT PROFESSOR ROY CASAGRANDA

Roy Casagranda is a Professor of Government, political scientist, historian, public lecturer and commentator on Middle Eastern affairs.

He is widely known for his interdisciplinary approach, combining history, politics, economics, philosophy and culture to explain contemporary global events.

He is also a Golden Narrative Laureate and a regular commentator on international affairs.


ROY'S WORK

BOOKS

• The Blood Throne of Caria
• Empire of the Nightingale


CURRENT LECTURE SERIES

Sessions from the Past — Museum of the Future, Dubai (2025–2026)

Including:

• The 1000-Year Legacy of Ibn Sina
• The Roman Republic
• The Great Library of Alexandria
• The Reconquista
• Modern Ideologies and Political Thought


FOLLOW PROFESSOR ROY CASAGRANDA

YouTube:
Dr. Roy Casagranda YouTube Channel
https://www.youtube.com/@DrRoyCasagranda

Apple Podcasts:
Dr. Roy Casagranda Podcast
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/dr-roy-casagranda-podcast/id1837193563

X / Twitter:
@RoyCasagranda

Facebook:
Roy Casagranda Books & Lectures
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=6157983973489

On September 10, 2001, the United States stood at the height of its power.
Twenty-five years later, what happened to the American moment?
In this special 25th-anniversary episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni sits down with historian and political scientist Professor Roy Casagranda for a sweeping &mdash; and at times fiercely provocative &mdash; conversation about America before 9/11, the choices it made afterwards, and the world those decisions helped create.
Was the invasion of Iraq the great strategic mistake of the post-9/11 era?
Did two decades of war give China the time and strategic space it needed to catch up with the United States?
How did Washington&rsquo;s relationship with Vladimir Putin unravel?
And is Donald Trump dismantling the post-9/11 order &mdash; or is he ultimately a product of it?
From George H. W. Bush and Boris Yeltsin to George W. Bush, Iraq, Afghanistan, Putin, China, Trump, Iran and the remilitarisation of Germany, Casagranda challenges conventional accounts of the last quarter-century of American power.
Some of his arguments are deliberately contentious. That is precisely the point of this conversation: challenge the assumption, test the argument, and examine the consequences.
Twenty-five years after the attacks that changed America and the world, one question hangs over the entire discussion:
DID THE UNITED STATES USE ITS EXTRAORDINARY POWER WISELY AFTER 9/11 &mdash; AND IF NOT, CAN IT RECOVER WHAT IT LOST?
 ABOUT PROFESSOR ROY CASAGRANDA
Roy Casagranda is a Professor of Government, political scientist, historian, public lecturer and commentator on Middle Eastern affairs.
He is widely known for his interdisciplinary approach, combining history, politics, economics, philosophy and culture to explain contemporary global events.
He is also a Golden Narrative Laureate and a regular commentator on international affairs.
 ROY'S WORK
BOOKS
&bull; The Blood Throne of Caria &bull; Empire of the Nightingale
 CURRENT LECTURE SERIES
Sessions from the Past &mdash; Museum of the Future, Dubai (2025&ndash;2026)
Including:
&bull; The 1000-Year Legacy of Ibn Sina &bull; The Roman Republic &bull; The Great Library of Alexandria &bull; The Reconquista &bull; Modern Ideologies and Political Thought
 FOLLOW PROFESSOR ROY CASAGRANDA
YouTube: Dr. Roy Casagranda YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@DrRoyCasagranda
Apple Podcasts: Dr. Roy Casagranda Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/dr-roy-casagranda-podcast/id1837193563
X / Twitter: @RoyCasagranda
Facebook: Roy Casagranda Books &amp; Lectures https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=6157983973489

Trump’s November Nightmare? | Scott Lucas

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