What happens when middle powers stop trusting the old global order?

In this episode of The Focus, host John Bruni speaks with Kishore Mahbubani — one of the world’s leading geopolitical thinkers — about the growing fragmentation of the international system, the future of American leadership, the rise of Asia, and whether middle powers can shape the emerging global order rather than simply survive it. 

Show Notes:

In this episode of The Focus, Kishore Mahbubani — former President of the UN Security Council, veteran Singaporean diplomat, and one of Asia’s most influential geopolitical thinkers — joins John Bruni to discuss the accelerating transformation of the global order.

Topics include:

The “Carney Moment” and the rise of middle powers
Whether Western dominance is fading
Strategic autonomy in an age of interdependence
U.S.-China rivalry and the future of the Indo-Pacific
Whether allies still trust the old international system
Australia’s strategic dilemma between Washington and Beijing
Can middle powers genuinely shape the future — or are they merely surviving it?

Prof. Mahbubani brings decades of diplomatic experience and strategic insight to one of the defining questions of the 21st century:

Is the old order breaking down faster than a new one can emerge?

Prof. Kishore Mahbubani’s latest books:

Can Asians Think of Peace? (2025) 
Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir (2024) 
The Asian 21st Century (2022) 

Follow The Focus Podcast for more conversations on geopolitics, defence, strategy, and global affairs.

What happens when middle powers stop trusting the old global order?
In this episode of The Focus, host John Bruni speaks with Kishore Mahbubani &mdash; one of the world&rsquo;s leading geopolitical thinkers &mdash; about the growing fragmentation of the international system, the future of American leadership, the rise of Asia, and whether middle powers can shape the emerging global order rather than simply survive it.&nbsp;
Show Notes:
In this episode of The Focus, Kishore Mahbubani &mdash; former President of the UN Security Council, veteran Singaporean diplomat, and one of Asia&rsquo;s most influential geopolitical thinkers &mdash; joins John Bruni to discuss the accelerating transformation of the global order.
Topics include:
The &ldquo;Carney Moment&rdquo; and the rise of middle powers Whether Western dominance is fading Strategic autonomy in an age of interdependence U.S.-China rivalry and the future of the Indo-Pacific Whether allies still trust the old international system Australia&rsquo;s strategic dilemma between Washington and Beijing Can middle powers genuinely shape the future &mdash; or are they merely surviving it?
Prof. Mahbubani brings decades of diplomatic experience and strategic insight to one of the defining questions of the 21st century:
Is the old order breaking down faster than a new one can emerge?
Prof. Kishore Mahbubani&rsquo;s latest books:
Can Asians Think of Peace? (2025)&nbsp; Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir (2024)&nbsp; The Asian 21st Century (2022)&nbsp;
Follow The Focus Podcast for more conversations on geopolitics, defence, strategy, and global affairs.

The Focus is the flagship current affairs podcast of SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical  think tank.

Hosted by Dr. John Bruni—a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media—The Focus brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for Jane’s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.

Produced by Neil Smart, The Focus cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus&nbsp;is the flagship current affairs podcast of&nbsp;SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical &nbsp;think tank.
Hosted by&nbsp;Dr. John Bruni&mdash;a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media&mdash;The Focus&nbsp;brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the&nbsp;Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for&nbsp;Jane&rsquo;s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.
Produced by&nbsp;Neil Smart,&nbsp;The Focus&nbsp;cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus

The Carney Moment: A Post-American World?

Is the United States still the stabilising force of the international system — or has it become part of the instability?


In our first episode back, Professor Scott Lucas joins John Bruni to unpack the Iran War, the growing global energy crisis, NATO’s deepening anxiety, and whether Trump-era America has entered a state of permanent political and strategic turbulence.


From the Strait of Hormuz to Washington itself, this is a hard conversation about power, disorder, and whether the world’s superpower is now accelerating the very chaos it once contained.


Show Notes:


After a period away due to medical leave, John Bruni returns to The Focus for a major conversation on the state of the international system — and the growing instability surrounding the United States itself.


Joining us is Professor Scott Lucas from the Clinton Institute in Dublin, one of the most respected analysts of American politics and international affairs.


Together, they examine whether the United States is still acting as the stabilising force of the global order — or whether internal political turmoil, strategic overreach, and the Trump presidency are now contributing to international instability.


Topics include:


The Iran War and risks of wider U.S. escalation
Strait of Hormuz tensions and global energy insecurity
“World War E” — energy as the new geopolitical battlespace
Concerns over American reliability
Trump, executive power, and institutional strain


Scott’s presence on socials:


X: @ScottLucas_EA
Bluesky: @scottlucas.bysky.social
Instagram: scottlucasworldview
Web: https://eaworldview.com/ 

Is the United States still the stabilising force of the international system &mdash; or has it become part of the instability?
 In our first episode back, Professor Scott Lucas joins John Bruni to unpack the Iran War, the growing global energy crisis, NATO&rsquo;s deepening anxiety, and whether Trump-era America has entered a state of permanent political and strategic turbulence.
 From the Strait of Hormuz to Washington itself, this is a hard conversation about power, disorder, and whether the world&rsquo;s superpower is now accelerating the very chaos it once contained.
 Show Notes:
 After a period away due to medical leave, John Bruni returns to The Focus for a major conversation on the state of the international system &mdash; and the growing instability surrounding the United States itself.
 Joining us is Professor Scott Lucas from the Clinton Institute in Dublin, one of the most respected analysts of American politics and international affairs.
 Together, they examine whether the United States is still acting as the stabilising force of the global order &mdash; or whether internal political turmoil, strategic overreach, and the Trump presidency are now contributing to international instability.
 Topics include:
 The Iran War and risks of wider U.S. escalation Strait of Hormuz tensions and global energy insecurity &ldquo;World War E&rdquo; &mdash; energy as the new geopolitical battlespace Concerns over American reliability Trump, executive power, and institutional strain
 Scott&rsquo;s presence on socials:
 X: @ScottLucas_EA Bluesky: @scottlucas.bysky.social Instagram: scottlucasworldview Web: https://eaworldview.com/&nbsp;

Scott Lucas | The World Trump Made

George Mamalis joins us for a deep dive into South Australia, political power, and the future of the Australian system.

Australia’s political landscape is shifting — and not just in South Australia.
In this episode of The Focus, we explore the deeper forces reshaping politics across the country.

Dr. John Bruni sits down with George-Alexander Mamalis — political commentator and host of The Adelaide Set — for a wide-ranging discussion on the changing nature of Australian politics. While the conversation begins with the upcoming South Australian election, it quickly expands into a broader analysis of the structural, cultural, and philosophical shifts shaping modern democracy.

We examine:

The dominance — and limitations — of the Labor–Liberal political system

The role of leadership personality versus policy

The growing country–city divide in Australia

The rise of outsider political movements, including Turning Point Australia

Power networks and influence, including “The Adelaide Set”

The impact of global ideas and emerging debates — including transhumanism — on political discourse

This is not just a conversation about South Australia — it is a discussion about where Australian politics is heading, and what that means in a rapidly changing world.

Call to Action: Before you go — drop a comment below and let us know two things: where you're watching from, and whether you think politics today is about ideas… or personalities.

Show Notes:

🔖 About the Guest

George-Alexander Mamalis is a political commentator based in South Australia and the host of The Adelaide Set, where he explores political, cultural, and societal issues shaping contemporary Australia.

If you want to know more about George, head to his YouTube Channel, George Mamalis, which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@georgiemamalis 

🎙️ About the Host


Dr. John Bruni is a geopolitical analyst and CEO of SAGE International Australia, and host of The Focus Podcast, where he engages with leading thinkers and practitioners on global affairs, defence, and geopolitics.

George Mamalis joins us for a deep dive into South Australia, political power, and the future of the Australian system.
Australia&rsquo;s political landscape is shifting &mdash; and not just in South Australia. In this episode of The Focus, we explore the deeper forces reshaping politics across the country.
Dr. John Bruni sits down with George-Alexander Mamalis &mdash; political commentator and host of The Adelaide Set &mdash; for a wide-ranging discussion on the changing nature of Australian politics. While the conversation begins with the upcoming South Australian election, it quickly expands into a broader analysis of the structural, cultural, and philosophical shifts shaping modern democracy.
We examine:
The dominance &mdash; and limitations &mdash; of the Labor&ndash;Liberal political system
The role of leadership personality versus policy
The growing country&ndash;city divide in Australia
The rise of outsider political movements, including Turning Point Australia
Power networks and influence, including &ldquo;The Adelaide Set&rdquo;
The impact of global ideas and emerging debates &mdash; including transhumanism &mdash; on political discourse
This is not just a conversation about South Australia &mdash; it is a discussion about where Australian politics is heading, and what that means in a rapidly changing world.
Call to Action: Before you go &mdash; drop a comment below and let us know two things: where you're watching from, and whether you think politics today is about ideas&hellip; or personalities.
Show Notes:
🔖 About the Guest
George-Alexander Mamalis is a political commentator based in South Australia and the host of The Adelaide Set, where he explores political, cultural, and societal issues shaping contemporary Australia.
If you want to know more about George, head to his YouTube Channel, George Mamalis, which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@georgiemamalis&nbsp;
🎙️ About the Host
 Dr. John Bruni is a geopolitical analyst and CEO of SAGE International Australia, and host of The Focus Podcast, where he engages with leading thinkers and practitioners on global affairs, defence, and geopolitics.

Australia’s Political Reset

Two wars are raging in the world right now: Ukraine and Iran. Both are, at their core, energy wars. Modern economies depend on cheap and reliable supplies of oil and gas. But what happens when war disrupts access to energy in not just one, but two of the world’s most critical regions at the same time? The Ukraine war has already reshaped Europe’s energy landscape. Now escalating conflict involving Iran is placing the wider Middle East — the heart of the global energy system — under growing strain.

We may not be witnessing World War III.

But we may be entering something else:
World War E — the global energy war.
Show Notes:
Topics Covered

• The strategic intersection between the Iran war and the Ukraine war 

• Whether energy pressure could weaken European support for Ukraine 

• The damage to Russian oil and gas infrastructure and whether Moscow could restore exports quickly

 • The implications of Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure

 • Reports of possible Russia–Iran military cooperation 

• Whether renewable energy can realistically close emerging energy gaps 

• The future of European energy security

Explainer: What Does “Force Majeure” Mean in LNG Markets?

A force majeure declaration is a legal term used in international contracts when extraordinary events prevent a company from fulfilling its obligations.

In the context of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, it typically means that the supplier is temporarily unable to deliver contracted shipments due to circumstances beyond its control, such as:

• war or military conflict 

• major infrastructure damage

 • natural disasters

 • government intervention or sanctions

When a supplier declares force majeure, it signals to buyers that contractual delivery obligations may be suspended or reduced without financial penalties.

For global energy markets, such declarations are extremely significant.
Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, supplying major markets across Europe and Asia. Any sustained disruption to Qatari LNG exports tightens global gas supply and can drive prices sharply higher.

In a world still heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, disruptions in the Gulf can rapidly translate into economic pressure far beyond the Middle East.

Guest

Anders Puck Nielsen is a naval officer and military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College.

His work focuses on maritime strategy, naval warfare, and contemporary security challenges, including the war in Ukraine and Russia’s military strategy.


He also runs a widely followed YouTube channel explaining military and geopolitical developments.

Subscribe to The Focus


For more conversations with leading experts on geopolitics, defence, and global security:
👍 Like the video 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Subscribe for future episodes

Two wars are raging in the world right now: Ukraine and Iran. Both are, at their core, energy wars. Modern economies depend on cheap and reliable supplies of oil and gas. But what happens when war disrupts access to energy in not just one, but two of the world&rsquo;s most critical regions at the same time? The Ukraine war has already reshaped Europe&rsquo;s energy landscape. Now escalating conflict involving Iran is placing the wider Middle East &mdash; the heart of the global energy system &mdash; under growing strain.
We may not be witnessing World War III.
But we may be entering something else: World War E &mdash; the global energy war. Show Notes: Topics Covered
&bull; The strategic intersection between the Iran war and the Ukraine war 
&bull; Whether energy pressure could weaken European support for Ukraine 
&bull; The damage to Russian oil and gas infrastructure and whether Moscow could restore exports quickly
 &bull; The implications of Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure
 &bull; Reports of possible Russia&ndash;Iran military cooperation 
&bull; Whether renewable energy can realistically close emerging energy gaps 
&bull; The future of European energy security
Explainer: What Does &ldquo;Force Majeure&rdquo; Mean in LNG Markets?
A force majeure declaration is a legal term used in international contracts when extraordinary events prevent a company from fulfilling its obligations.
In the context of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, it typically means that the supplier is temporarily unable to deliver contracted shipments due to circumstances beyond its control, such as:
&bull; war or military conflict 
&bull; major infrastructure damage
 &bull; natural disasters
 &bull; government intervention or sanctions
When a supplier declares force majeure, it signals to buyers that contractual delivery obligations may be suspended or reduced without financial penalties.
For global energy markets, such declarations are extremely significant. Qatar is one of the world&rsquo;s largest LNG exporters, supplying major markets across Europe and Asia. Any sustained disruption to Qatari LNG exports tightens global gas supply and can drive prices sharply higher.
In a world still heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, disruptions in the Gulf can rapidly translate into economic pressure far beyond the Middle East.
Guest
Anders Puck Nielsen is a naval officer and military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College.
His work focuses on maritime strategy, naval warfare, and contemporary security challenges, including the war in Ukraine and Russia&rsquo;s military strategy.
 He also runs a widely followed YouTube channel explaining military and geopolitical developments.
Subscribe to The Focus
 For more conversations with leading experts on geopolitics, defence, and global security: 👍 Like the video 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Subscribe for future episodes

The Carney Moment: A Post-American World?

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