From pandemics and wars to artificial intelligence, geopolitical rivalry, and presidential candidates, the pace of change has never been faster. Yet governments, businesses and intelligence agencies continue to be caught off guard by events they often should have seen coming. Why? In this episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with strategic foresight expert Patti Morrissey about why strategic surprises keep happening, how leaders can better prepare for uncertainty, and why the future isn't something we predict—it's something we prepare for.

Show Notes:

About Patti
Patti Morrissey is the founder & CEO of Global Foresight Strategies. She has deep expertise in providing strategic planning and foresight analysis for government and non-government clients. Patti has 36 years of experience in government, national and international security policy and strategy, working for the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.  

Global Foresight Strategies

From pandemics and wars to artificial intelligence, geopolitical rivalry, and presidential candidates, the pace of change has never been faster. Yet governments, businesses and intelligence agencies continue to be caught off guard by events they often should have seen coming. Why? In this episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with strategic foresight expert Patti Morrissey about why strategic surprises keep happening, how leaders can better prepare for uncertainty, and why the future isn't something we predict&mdash;it's something we prepare for.
Show Notes:
About Patti Patti Morrissey is the founder &amp; CEO of Global Foresight Strategies. She has deep expertise in providing strategic planning and foresight analysis for government and non-government clients. Patti has 36 years of experience in government, national and international security policy and strategy, working for the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. &nbsp;
<a href="https://www.gfs-america.org/">Global Foresight Strategies</a>

The Focus is the flagship current affairs podcast of SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical  think tank.

Hosted by Dr. John Bruni—a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media—The Focus brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for Jane’s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.

Produced by Neil Smart, The Focus cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus&nbsp;is the flagship current affairs podcast of&nbsp;SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical &nbsp;think tank.
Hosted by&nbsp;Dr. John Bruni&mdash;a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media&mdash;The Focus&nbsp;brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the&nbsp;Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for&nbsp;Jane&rsquo;s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.
Produced by&nbsp;Neil Smart,&nbsp;The Focus&nbsp;cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus

Seeing Around Corners - Why Strategic Surprises Keep Catching Us Off Guard

How did Colombia defeat the FARC—and what can other democracies learn from its experience?

In Part 2 of my conversation with General Alberto José Mejía Ferrero, former Commander of the Colombian Armed Forces, we continue our examination of counterinsurgency, national resilience and the long campaign that transformed Colombia’s security environment.

We begin with Colombia’s enduring urban-rural divide, and the way geography, uneven development and weak state presence helped shape decades of internal conflict. General Mejía then explains how the Colombian state adapted its military, political and institutional approach to weaken and ultimately defeat the FARC as a strategic force.

Our discussion also covers:

• The historical development of Colombia
• The military and political campaign against the FARC
• The continuing threat posed by the ELN
• Venezuela’s support for armed groups
• Security along the Colombia-Venezuela border
• Regional security cooperation in Latin America
• The credibility of US defence of the Western Hemisphere
• The democratisation of drone warfare after Ukraine
• How General Mejía would prepare the Colombian military today
• America’s difficult relationship with counterinsurgency warfare
• The impact of Venezuelan refugees on Colombia

This is not simply a discussion about Colombia. It is a wider examination of how democracies confront insurgency, restore state authority and convert battlefield success into lasting strategic outcomes.

Show Notes:

About General Alberto José Mejía Ferrero is a retired Colombian Army officer who served as Commander of the Colombian Army and later as General Commander of Colombia’s Armed Forces. During his military career, he held senior operational and strategic appointments during Colombia’s campaign against the FARC and other illegal armed groups. Following his retirement from military service, he served as Colombia’s Ambassador to Australia. His career provides a rare perspective on counterinsurgency, military transformation, strategic leadership, civil-military relations and the changing security environment of Latin America.

Glossary:

ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) in English - the National Liberation Army

How did Colombia defeat the FARC&mdash;and what can other democracies learn from its experience?
In Part 2 of my conversation with General Alberto Jos&eacute; Mej&iacute;a Ferrero, former Commander of the Colombian Armed Forces, we continue our examination of counterinsurgency, national resilience and the long campaign that transformed Colombia&rsquo;s security environment.
We begin with Colombia&rsquo;s enduring urban-rural divide, and the way geography, uneven development and weak state presence helped shape decades of internal conflict. General Mej&iacute;a then explains how the Colombian state adapted its military, political and institutional approach to weaken and ultimately defeat the FARC as a strategic force.
Our discussion also covers:
&bull; The historical development of Colombia &bull; The military and political campaign against the FARC &bull; The continuing threat posed by the ELN &bull; Venezuela&rsquo;s support for armed groups &bull; Security along the Colombia-Venezuela border &bull; Regional security cooperation in Latin America &bull; The credibility of US defence of the Western Hemisphere &bull; The democratisation of drone warfare after Ukraine &bull; How General Mej&iacute;a would prepare the Colombian military today &bull; America&rsquo;s difficult relationship with counterinsurgency warfare &bull; The impact of Venezuelan refugees on Colombia
This is not simply a discussion about Colombia. It is a wider examination of how democracies confront insurgency, restore state authority and convert battlefield success into lasting strategic outcomes.
Show Notes:
About General Alberto Jos&eacute; Mej&iacute;a Ferrero is a retired Colombian Army officer who served as Commander of the Colombian Army and later as General Commander of Colombia&rsquo;s Armed Forces. During his military career, he held senior operational and strategic appointments during Colombia&rsquo;s campaign against the FARC and other illegal armed groups. Following his retirement from military service, he served as Colombia&rsquo;s Ambassador to Australia. His career provides a rare perspective on counterinsurgency, military transformation, strategic leadership, civil-military relations and the changing security environment of Latin America.
Glossary:
ELN (Ej&eacute;rcito de Liberaci&oacute;n Nacional) in English - the National Liberation Army

How Colombia defeated the FARC | Part 2

How does a democracy defeat one of the world's longest-running insurgencies?


For more than fifty years, Colombia fought a brutal conflict against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)—a war fuelled by ideology, narcotics trafficking and some of the most challenging terrain on Earth. Yet against the odds, Colombia changed the strategic balance.
I

n Part One of this special two-part conversation, Dr John Bruni speaks with General (Ret.) Alberto José Mejía Ferrero, former Commander of the Colombian Army and former General Commander of Colombia's Armed Forces, about the campaign that helped reshape Colombia's modern history.
Drawing on more than four decades of military leadership, General Mejía explains what really weakened the FARC, why Plan Colombia became one of the most significant security partnerships of the 21st century, and whether military success alone is enough to secure lasting peace.

In this episode, we discuss:


• Colombia's decades-long campaign against the FARC

 • The turning points that changed the conflict 

• Plan Colombia and the role of the United States

 • Military leadership and strategic decision-making • Counterinsurgency lessons for democratic governments 

• Why winning the peace can be harder than winning the war


Whether you're interested in military history, counterinsurgency, international security or strategic affairs, this conversation offers rare insights from one of the commanders who helped lead Colombia through one of its defining conflicts.


Part Two continues the discussion with Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro, organised crime, armed drones, emerging technologies and the future of security in the Western Hemisphere.
If you enjoyed this episode, please Like, Subscribe, and share it with colleagues and friends. Your support helps us continue bringing leading strategic thinkers from around the world to The Focus.
What do you think is the greatest lesson other democracies can learn from Colombia's experience?

Let us know in the comments below.

Show Notes:

About General Alberto José Mejía Ferrero 

General Alberto José Mejía Ferrero is a retired Colombian Army officer who served as Commander of the Colombian Army and later as General Commander of Colombia’s Armed Forces.During his military career, he held senior operational and strategic appointments during Colombia’s campaign against the FARC and other illegal armed groups. Following his retirement from military service, he served as Colombia’s Ambassador to Australia. His career provides a rare perspective on counterinsurgency, military transformation, strategic leadership, civil-military relations and the changing security environment of Latin America.
Glossary


Operation Sword of Honour (Operación Espada de Honor) was Colombia's national counterinsurgency campaign launched in 2012 under President Juan Manuel Santos. It was designed to intensify military pressure on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) by concentrating operations against the group's strongest rural strongholds and leadership.
Plan Colombia was a joint security, counter-narcotics and institutional reform initiative launched in 1999 by Colombian President Andrés Pastrana in partnership with the United States. The programme formally began in 2000 following approval of substantial U.S. assistance.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, commonly known by its Spanish acronym FARC, was a Marxist-Leninist guerrilla organisation founded in 1964. For more than five decades, the FARC fought the Colombian state through guerrilla warfare, bombings, kidnappings, assassinations and attacks on military and civilian targets. It financed much of its insurgency through narcotics trafficking, extortion, illegal mining and hostage-taking, eventually becoming one of the largest and most powerful armed groups in Latin America.


The National Liberation Army, commonly known by its Spanish acronym ELN, is Colombia's oldest active guerrilla organisation. Founded in 1964, it emerged from a blend of Marxist ideology, Cuban revolutionary influence and liberation theology, seeking to overthrow the Colombian state through armed struggle.


The Maoist way of war is a revolutionary strategy developed by Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong during the Chinese Civil War. It is based on the principle that a weaker force can defeat a stronger conventional military through a prolonged struggle that combines political mobilisation, guerrilla warfare and, ultimately, conventional military operations.

Chapters:


00:00 Cold Open
00:33 Introduction
02:09 Understanding Colombia's Long War
11:07 The Cocaine Economy: Why the War Endured
17:00 How Colombia Built a Winning Counterinsurgency
18:40 Rebuilding the Colombian Air Force
19:20 The Role of the Colombian Marines
19:57 The Controversial Crop Spraying Campaign
23:57 Discipline, Ethics & Winning Public Trust
34:22 Fighting an Enemy Without Rules of War
44:13 The Toughest Command Decision
59:43 Why Did the FARC Keep Recruiting?

How does a democracy defeat one of the world's longest-running insurgencies?
 For more than fifty years, Colombia fought a brutal conflict against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)&mdash;a war fuelled by ideology, narcotics trafficking and some of the most challenging terrain on Earth. Yet against the odds, Colombia changed the strategic balance. I
n Part One of this special two-part conversation, Dr John Bruni speaks with General (Ret.) Alberto Jos&eacute; Mej&iacute;a Ferrero, former Commander of the Colombian Army and former General Commander of Colombia's Armed Forces, about the campaign that helped reshape Colombia's modern history. Drawing on more than four decades of military leadership, General Mej&iacute;a explains what really weakened the FARC, why Plan Colombia became one of the most significant security partnerships of the 21st century, and whether military success alone is enough to secure lasting peace.
In this episode, we discuss:
 &bull; Colombia's decades-long campaign against the FARC
 &bull; The turning points that changed the conflict 
&bull; Plan Colombia and the role of the United States
 &bull; Military leadership and strategic decision-making &bull; Counterinsurgency lessons for democratic governments 
&bull; Why winning the peace can be harder than winning the war
 Whether you're interested in military history, counterinsurgency, international security or strategic affairs, this conversation offers rare insights from one of the commanders who helped lead Colombia through one of its defining conflicts.
 Part Two continues the discussion with Venezuela after Nicol&aacute;s Maduro, organised crime, armed drones, emerging technologies and the future of security in the Western Hemisphere. If you enjoyed this episode, please Like, Subscribe, and share it with colleagues and friends. Your support helps us continue bringing leading strategic thinkers from around the world to The Focus. What do you think is the greatest lesson other democracies can learn from Colombia's experience?
Let us know in the comments below.
Show Notes:
About General Alberto Jos&eacute; Mej&iacute;a Ferrero&nbsp;
General Alberto Jos&eacute; Mej&iacute;a Ferrero is a retired Colombian Army officer who served as Commander of the Colombian Army and later as General Commander of Colombia&rsquo;s Armed Forces.During his military career, he held senior operational and strategic appointments during Colombia&rsquo;s campaign against the FARC and other illegal armed groups. Following his retirement from military service, he served as Colombia&rsquo;s Ambassador to Australia. His career provides a rare perspective on counterinsurgency, military transformation, strategic leadership, civil-military relations and the changing security environment of Latin America. Glossary
 Operation Sword of Honour (Operaci&oacute;n Espada de Honor) was Colombia's national counterinsurgency campaign launched in 2012 under President Juan Manuel Santos. It was designed to intensify military pressure on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) by concentrating operations against the group's strongest rural strongholds and leadership. Plan Colombia was a joint security, counter-narcotics and institutional reform initiative launched in 1999 by Colombian President Andr&eacute;s Pastrana in partnership with the United States. The programme formally began in 2000 following approval of substantial U.S. assistance.
The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, commonly known by its Spanish acronym FARC, was a Marxist-Leninist guerrilla organisation founded in 1964. For more than five decades, the FARC fought the Colombian state through guerrilla warfare, bombings, kidnappings, assassinations and attacks on military and civilian targets. It financed much of its insurgency through narcotics trafficking, extortion, illegal mining and hostage-taking, eventually becoming one of the largest and most powerful armed groups in Latin America.
 The National Liberation Army, commonly known by its Spanish acronym ELN, is Colombia's oldest active guerrilla organisation. Founded in 1964, it emerged from a blend of Marxist ideology, Cuban revolutionary influence and liberation theology, seeking to overthrow the Colombian state through armed struggle.
 The Maoist way of war is a revolutionary strategy developed by Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong during the Chinese Civil War. It is based on the principle that a weaker force can defeat a stronger conventional military through a prolonged struggle that combines political mobilisation, guerrilla warfare and, ultimately, conventional military operations.
Chapters:
 00:00 Cold Open 00:33 Introduction 02:09 Understanding Colombia's Long War 11:07 The Cocaine Economy: Why the War Endured 17:00 How Colombia Built a Winning Counterinsurgency 18:40 Rebuilding the Colombian Air Force 19:20 The Role of the Colombian Marines 19:57 The Controversial Crop Spraying Campaign 23:57 Discipline, Ethics &amp; Winning Public Trust 34:22 Fighting an Enemy Without Rules of War 44:13 The Toughest Command Decision 59:43 Why Did the FARC Keep Recruiting?

How Colombia Defeated the FARC

In Part 2 of this in-depth conversation, Dr John Bruni continues his discussion with economist Dr Jenny Gordon to examine one of the defining questions of the 21st century: who shapes the global economic system in an era of great-power competition, technological disruption and growing public discontent?

From the role of governments in setting the rules of the economy to the impact of artificial intelligence, inflation, immigration and the future of work, Dr Gordon offers a thoughtful and evidence-based assessment of the forces reshaping modern economies.

The discussion also explores why many people feel economically left behind, whether Modern Monetary Theory can withstand scrutiny, the rise of populism, and how changing media dynamics are influencing public debate. Finally, the conversation turns to the outlook for the United States under President Donald Trump and the broader challenges confronting policymakers in an increasingly uncertain world.

Whether you are interested in economics, geopolitics, public policy or Australia's place in the changing international order, this conversation provides valuable insights into the issues likely to shape the decades ahead.

Show Notes:

About Dr Jenny Gordon

Dr Jenny Gordon is an economist, Honorary Professor at the Australian National University, former Chief Economist at the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), and Non-Resident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. She has held senior positions at the Productivity Commission and has spent her career advising governments on international trade, economic policy, productivity, migration and Australia's engagement with the global economy.

In Part 2 of this in-depth conversation, Dr John Bruni continues his discussion with economist Dr Jenny Gordon to examine one of the defining questions of the 21st century: who shapes the global economic system in an era of great-power competition, technological disruption and growing public discontent?
From the role of governments in setting the rules of the economy to the impact of artificial intelligence, inflation, immigration and the future of work, Dr Gordon offers a thoughtful and evidence-based assessment of the forces reshaping modern economies.
The discussion also explores why many people feel economically left behind, whether Modern Monetary Theory can withstand scrutiny, the rise of populism, and how changing media dynamics are influencing public debate. Finally, the conversation turns to the outlook for the United States under President Donald Trump and the broader challenges confronting policymakers in an increasingly uncertain world.
Whether you are interested in economics, geopolitics, public policy or Australia's place in the changing international order, this conversation provides valuable insights into the issues likely to shape the decades ahead.
Show Notes:
About Dr Jenny Gordon
Dr Jenny Gordon is an economist, Honorary Professor at the Australian National University, former Chief Economist at the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), and Non-Resident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. She has held senior positions at the Productivity Commission and has spent her career advising governments on international trade, economic policy, productivity, migration and Australia's engagement with the global economy.

Seeing Around Corners - Why Strategic Surprises Keep Catching Us Off Guard

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