Israel vs. Iran: What Drives Tehran’s Strategy? Dr. Ori Goldberg joins The Focus to decode ideology, deterrence, and the risks of a wider Middle East war.

 

Show Notes:

X: @ori_goldberg

Bluesky: @origoldberg.bsky.social

 

Ori’s Top Publications:

Selected Articles (2024)
“Why Israelis Do and Don’t Want War with Hezbollah” – New Lines Magazine, September 2024
“Israel’s Attack on Hezbollah’s Communications Network Is Not the Victory It Claims” – New Lines Magazine, September 2024

Faith and Politics in Iran, Israel, and the Islamic State: Theologies of the Real (2017)

Published by Cambridge University Press, this book examines how religious worldviews shape political action across diverse ideological contexts.

Understanding Shiite Leadership: The Art of the Middle Ground in Iran and Lebanon (2014, co-authored with Shaul Mishal)

This work explores how Shi‘ite leaders balance ideological commitments with pragmatic governance in both Iran and Lebanon.

Shi‘i Theology in Iran: The Challenge of Religious Experience (2011)

Published by Routledge, this book investigates the role of religious experience in shaping revolutionary Shi‘i political theology.

Israel vs. Iran: What Drives Tehran&rsquo;s Strategy? Dr. Ori Goldberg joins&nbsp;The Focus&nbsp;to decode ideology, deterrence, and the risks of a wider Middle East war.
&nbsp;
Show Notes:
X: @ori_goldberg
Bluesky: @origoldberg.bsky.social
&nbsp;
Ori&rsquo;s Top Publications:
Selected Articles (2024)
<ul>
<li>&ldquo;Why Israelis Do and Don&rsquo;t Want War with Hezbollah&rdquo;&nbsp;&ndash; New Lines Magazine, September 2024</li>
<li>&ldquo;Israel&rsquo;s Attack on Hezbollah&rsquo;s Communications Network Is Not the Victory It Claims&rdquo;&nbsp;&ndash; New Lines Magazine, September 2024</li>
</ul>
Faith and Politics in Iran, Israel, and the Islamic State: Theologies of the Real&nbsp;(2017)
Published by Cambridge University Press, this book examines how religious worldviews shape political action across diverse ideological contexts.
Understanding Shiite Leadership: The Art of the Middle Ground in Iran and Lebanon&nbsp;(2014, co-authored with Shaul Mishal)
This work explores how Shi&lsquo;ite leaders balance ideological commitments with pragmatic governance in both Iran and Lebanon.
Shi&lsquo;i Theology in Iran: The Challenge of Religious Experience&nbsp;(2011)
Published by Routledge, this book investigates the role of religious experience in shaping revolutionary Shi&lsquo;i political theology.

The Focus is the flagship current affairs podcast of SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical  think tank.

Hosted by Dr. John Bruni—a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media—The Focus brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for Jane’s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.

Produced by Neil Smart, The Focus cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus&nbsp;is the flagship current affairs podcast of&nbsp;SAGE International, an independent, Adelaide-based geopolitical &nbsp;think tank.
Hosted by&nbsp;Dr. John Bruni&mdash;a veteran geopolitical commentator with over 24 years in the Australian media&mdash;The Focus&nbsp;brings a critical edge to global affairs. John's expertise is built on decades of experience, including time with the&nbsp;Royal United Services Institute of Australia, work as a university lecturer, senatorial foreign affairs adviser, analyst for&nbsp;Jane&rsquo;s Intelligence Review, and Gulf-based military analyst.
Produced by&nbsp;Neil Smart,&nbsp;The Focus&nbsp;cuts through the noise of biased media to deliver sharp, informed insights into the major issues shaping Australia and the world. In an age of global disruption and complexity, knowing which questions to ask is more vital than ever.

The Focus

Israel’s ’Total War’

Two wars are raging in the world right now: Ukraine and Iran. Both are, at their core, energy wars. Modern economies depend on cheap and reliable supplies of oil and gas. But what happens when war disrupts access to energy in not just one, but two of the world’s most critical regions at the same time? The Ukraine war has already reshaped Europe’s energy landscape. Now escalating conflict involving Iran is placing the wider Middle East — the heart of the global energy system — under growing strain.

We may not be witnessing World War III.

But we may be entering something else:
World War E — the global energy war.
Show Notes:
Topics Covered

• The strategic intersection between the Iran war and the Ukraine war 

• Whether energy pressure could weaken European support for Ukraine 

• The damage to Russian oil and gas infrastructure and whether Moscow could restore exports quickly

 • The implications of Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure

 • Reports of possible Russia–Iran military cooperation 

• Whether renewable energy can realistically close emerging energy gaps 

• The future of European energy security

Explainer: What Does “Force Majeure” Mean in LNG Markets?

A force majeure declaration is a legal term used in international contracts when extraordinary events prevent a company from fulfilling its obligations.

In the context of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, it typically means that the supplier is temporarily unable to deliver contracted shipments due to circumstances beyond its control, such as:

• war or military conflict 

• major infrastructure damage

 • natural disasters

 • government intervention or sanctions

When a supplier declares force majeure, it signals to buyers that contractual delivery obligations may be suspended or reduced without financial penalties.

For global energy markets, such declarations are extremely significant.
Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, supplying major markets across Europe and Asia. Any sustained disruption to Qatari LNG exports tightens global gas supply and can drive prices sharply higher.

In a world still heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, disruptions in the Gulf can rapidly translate into economic pressure far beyond the Middle East.

Guest

Anders Puck Nielsen is a naval officer and military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College.

His work focuses on maritime strategy, naval warfare, and contemporary security challenges, including the war in Ukraine and Russia’s military strategy.


He also runs a widely followed YouTube channel explaining military and geopolitical developments.

Subscribe to The Focus


For more conversations with leading experts on geopolitics, defence, and global security:
👍 Like the video 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Subscribe for future episodes

Two wars are raging in the world right now: Ukraine and Iran. Both are, at their core, energy wars. Modern economies depend on cheap and reliable supplies of oil and gas. But what happens when war disrupts access to energy in not just one, but two of the world&rsquo;s most critical regions at the same time? The Ukraine war has already reshaped Europe&rsquo;s energy landscape. Now escalating conflict involving Iran is placing the wider Middle East &mdash; the heart of the global energy system &mdash; under growing strain.
We may not be witnessing World War III.
But we may be entering something else: World War E &mdash; the global energy war. Show Notes: Topics Covered
&bull; The strategic intersection between the Iran war and the Ukraine war 
&bull; Whether energy pressure could weaken European support for Ukraine 
&bull; The damage to Russian oil and gas infrastructure and whether Moscow could restore exports quickly
 &bull; The implications of Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure
 &bull; Reports of possible Russia&ndash;Iran military cooperation 
&bull; Whether renewable energy can realistically close emerging energy gaps 
&bull; The future of European energy security
Explainer: What Does &ldquo;Force Majeure&rdquo; Mean in LNG Markets?
A force majeure declaration is a legal term used in international contracts when extraordinary events prevent a company from fulfilling its obligations.
In the context of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, it typically means that the supplier is temporarily unable to deliver contracted shipments due to circumstances beyond its control, such as:
&bull; war or military conflict 
&bull; major infrastructure damage
 &bull; natural disasters
 &bull; government intervention or sanctions
When a supplier declares force majeure, it signals to buyers that contractual delivery obligations may be suspended or reduced without financial penalties.
For global energy markets, such declarations are extremely significant. Qatar is one of the world&rsquo;s largest LNG exporters, supplying major markets across Europe and Asia. Any sustained disruption to Qatari LNG exports tightens global gas supply and can drive prices sharply higher.
In a world still heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, disruptions in the Gulf can rapidly translate into economic pressure far beyond the Middle East.
Guest
Anders Puck Nielsen is a naval officer and military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College.
His work focuses on maritime strategy, naval warfare, and contemporary security challenges, including the war in Ukraine and Russia&rsquo;s military strategy.
 He also runs a widely followed YouTube channel explaining military and geopolitical developments.
Subscribe to The Focus
 For more conversations with leading experts on geopolitics, defence, and global security: 👍 Like the video 💬 Share your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Subscribe for future episodes

World War E

As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds into its fifth year, the geopolitical map is shifting in real time.
In this episode of The Focus, Dr. John Bruni speaks with Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges, former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe, about the war’s trajectory, the future of NATO, and the global ripple effects now shaping the international order.
Recorded before the outbreak of U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, this conversation captures the strategic debate at a critical moment — when tensions were already rising and the world stood on the edge of a wider conflict. The insights remain deeply relevant to understanding what comes next.
Whether the conflict ends through negotiation, exhaustion, or escalation, one thing is clear: Ukraine has become the central strategic battleground shaping the 21st-century security order.
Show Notes:
Topics Discussed
• Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine after five years of fighting • Whether Moscow still possesses a coherent strategy or is now fighting a war of attrition • The latest realities on the Ukrainian battlefield, including drones, long-range strike systems, and evolving tactics • Europe’s growing role in supporting Ukraine and what this means for the future of NATO and the transatlantic alliance • Insights from the Munich Security Conference and the strategic mood among Western policymakers • Russia’s shadow fleet and the ongoing effort to disrupt sanctions evasion • The broader geopolitical landscape involving Iran, China, and shifting global power dynamics • The strategic importance of Greenland and the Arctic in future great-power competition

Key Question
Is NATO weakening without dominant U.S. leadership — or evolving into a more balanced alliance where Europe carries greater strategic responsibility?

Guest
Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Europe Senior strategic analyst on European security and NATO.

Host
Dr. John Bruni Founder & CEO, SAGE International Host of The Focus Podcast

About The Focus
The Focus Podcast brings together leading thinkers in geopolitics, defence, and international security to explore the forces shaping the global strategic environment.

As Russia&rsquo;s war in Ukraine grinds into its fifth year, the geopolitical map is shifting in real time. In this episode of The Focus, Dr. John Bruni speaks with Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges, former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe, about the war&rsquo;s trajectory, the future of NATO, and the global ripple effects now shaping the international order. Recorded before the outbreak of U.S.&ndash;Israeli strikes on Iran, this conversation captures the strategic debate at a critical moment &mdash; when tensions were already rising and the world stood on the edge of a wider conflict. The insights remain deeply relevant to understanding what comes next. Whether the conflict ends through negotiation, exhaustion, or escalation, one thing is clear: Ukraine has become the central strategic battleground shaping the 21st-century security order. Show Notes: Topics Discussed &bull; Russia&rsquo;s ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine after five years of fighting &bull; Whether Moscow still possesses a coherent strategy or is now fighting a war of attrition &bull; The latest realities on the Ukrainian battlefield, including drones, long-range strike systems, and evolving tactics &bull; Europe&rsquo;s growing role in supporting Ukraine and what this means for the future of NATO and the transatlantic alliance &bull; Insights from the Munich Security Conference and the strategic mood among Western policymakers &bull; Russia&rsquo;s shadow fleet and the ongoing effort to disrupt sanctions evasion &bull; The broader geopolitical landscape involving Iran, China, and shifting global power dynamics &bull; The strategic importance of Greenland and the Arctic in future great-power competition
Key Question Is NATO weakening without dominant U.S. leadership &mdash; or evolving into a more balanced alliance where Europe carries greater strategic responsibility?
Guest Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges Former Commanding General, U.S. Army Europe Senior strategic analyst on European security and NATO.
Host Dr. John Bruni Founder &amp; CEO, SAGE International Host of The Focus Podcast
About The Focus The Focus Podcast brings together leading thinkers in geopolitics, defence, and international security to explore the forces shaping the global strategic environment.

NATO After 5 Years of the Russia-Ukraine War.

🎙️ Is Australia’s Defence Capability Strong — or Structurally Vulnerable?

Australia talks constantly about defence capability.

But if we can’t build, sustain, and properly crew our own force structure — are we truly sovereign?
In this episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Mel Pikos from Talking Tactics about the real state of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and the country’s defence industry base.
This is not a procurement discussion.

It’s a sovereignty discussion.

Show Notes:

Guest: Mel Pikos (Talking Tactics) Host: Dr John Bruni

Australia talks constantly about defence capability — new platforms, AUKUS, procurement announcements.

But are we building sovereign capacity — or managing structural dependence?

In this episode, Dr John Bruni speaks with Mel Pikos from Talking Tactics about the real state of the ADF and Australia’s defence industry base.

We examine:

• Is defence industry effectively a “fourth arm” of the ADF? • Are Australian SMEs central to innovation — or sidelined by foreign primes? • Does supply chain dependence create strategic vulnerability? • Is recruitment weakness creating hollow force risk across Navy, Army and Air Force? 

• Can capability be strengthened without introducing national service?
This conversation moves beyond procurement headlines to the deeper issue of national resilience.
Sovereignty isn’t announced. It’s built.


You can watch Mel’s excellent podcast Talking Tactics here:

https://www.youtube.com/@MelPikos

 

 

🎙️ Is Australia&rsquo;s Defence Capability Strong &mdash; or Structurally Vulnerable?
Australia talks constantly about defence capability.
But if we can&rsquo;t build, sustain, and properly crew our own force structure &mdash; are we truly sovereign? In this episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Mel Pikos from Talking Tactics about the real state of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and the country&rsquo;s defence industry base. This is not a procurement discussion.
It&rsquo;s a sovereignty discussion.
Show Notes:
Guest: Mel Pikos (Talking Tactics) Host: Dr John Bruni
Australia talks constantly about defence capability &mdash; new platforms, AUKUS, procurement announcements.
But are we building sovereign capacity &mdash; or managing structural dependence?
In this episode, Dr John Bruni speaks with Mel Pikos from Talking Tactics about the real state of the ADF and Australia&rsquo;s defence industry base.
We examine:
&bull; Is defence industry effectively a &ldquo;fourth arm&rdquo; of the ADF? &bull; Are Australian SMEs central to innovation &mdash; or sidelined by foreign primes? &bull; Does supply chain dependence create strategic vulnerability? &bull; Is recruitment weakness creating hollow force risk across Navy, Army and Air Force? 
&bull; Can capability be strengthened without introducing national service? This conversation moves beyond procurement headlines to the deeper issue of national resilience. Sovereignty isn&rsquo;t announced. It&rsquo;s built.
 You can watch Mel&rsquo;s excellent podcast Talking Tactics here:
https://www.youtube.com/@MelPikos
&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Israel’s ’Total War’

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