AFL Round 1 preview and picks - are we skinning the Swans after one game? JL... please play Action Jackson in the Ruck.

Published Mar 12, 2025, 5:04 AM

00:00 - JJ's Opening Round observations

01:48 - Carlton vs Richmond preview

04:50 - Hawthorn vs Essendon preview

06:29 - Geelong vs Fremantle preview

10:13 - Sydney vs Brisbane preview

12:14 - Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne preview

14:23 - Collingwood vs Port Adelaide

17:22 - Adelaide vs St Kilda

18:55 - Melbourne vs GWS

22:07 - West Coast vs Gold Coast

23:51 - JJ's tips

Bad for free. Okay, ran Rough, We're finally underway.

All eighteen AFL teams are preparing as I sit down nineteen past two on a Wednesday afternoon. All teams are preparing to play footy. How good we got through opening round. Laura Kane has come out and suggested it's been a raging success and we'll see it again next year, hopefully not in its current format. I said on Melbourne Radio last week. If we see it next year in its current format, it will be a kick to the shins of all AFL fans. I was on radio. Now I'm on a podcast. What I meant to say was it was a kick in the knackers. If you've got me for all AFL fans. If we see that version or something close to that version of Opening around next year, and blimey.

We should boycott it.

Now let's get stuck into round one. Round one, it all gets underway the MCG with the traditional season opener Richmond Carlton. Now this is expected to be a blood bath from Richmond's perspective. Now, what I'm going to do here on the podcast, JJ is my name. Hopefully you're aware of that, but if you're not, that means you're a first time listener or you just don't know who's talking. I appreciate those who are tuning in for the first time or have been tuning in along the way, whether it be NFL Sit Down with Gronk. You can check that out on YouTube as well if you haven't seen it, let's talk in. I'm going to go across every game nice and quick, nice and swiftly, and see what we can decipher. So Richmond Carlton, look, we expect it to be one way traffic. We don't expect much and Richmond this year, there's many people out there saying they won't win a game after I suggested they might finish last last year and got lambastard for it from Tigers fans. I want to know if Richmond can find I'm going to be looking not necessarily for the rookies, not the first year guys. I want to see what some of their second, third, fourth, fifth year guys, the guys who aren't established it. Can they establish a few more of those guys Ken Thompson, dow or Ross who's been around a while, But can some of these types begin to establish themselves and show they can be a part of Richmond's next great side. That's what I'm looking for. Of Course, we'll see glimpses from the rookies, and we hope these high draft picks are going to be superstars, but they won't all be superstars. So I'm looking past those guys, the second, third, fourth, fifth year guys, even some of the sixth year guys. Guys who are yet to play fifty games. Can they bring something to the table in terms of actual performance. They were good in this game last year against Carlton. Expected to get beaten by a long way. They actually led it quarter time, halftime and three quarter time and will run over in the last quarter. Of course, they had some bodies in that game that they haven't got in this one. But this might be closer than you think from Carlton's perspective.

Hey, what, it's been a.

Less than ideal preparation if you extend that over the preseason. So no, Charlie Kurno. We know that there's been some issues for Sam Walsh and a couple of others, and now we've got Hollands who won't be there with some personal issues and he needs to work his way through. So he was handy for them last year alongside his brother Elijah and Ollie, so it's a bit of a new Lott Carlton team. I'm interested to see what Silvanni down back and Brodie camp up front looks like. Do those guys swap at times if Kemp's struggling to get involved ahead of the footy and Sylvanne he's not necessarily as comfortable down back. Do they flip those guys in games? That's going to be interesting. They are very similar athletes and similar sizes and play the game quite similar league, so I wonder whether they might switch those guys from time to time. And I want to see this Carlton side kick the ball well, which does worry me because I don't see a lot of great kicks in this team on this list. Lucas Campriale might be one, but again he's a first year play he's going to play his first game. You can't expect too much. And Sam Docket his role is going to be fascinating. I think we'll see him play inside mid, he'll play wing, and he'll play half back, and they need his kicking and his leadership and his ability to shift the ball very very importantly in terms of the win. I think Richmond, Sorry, I think Carlton will win, but I don't think it'll be a blood bath. I think it'll be around five six seven goals in favor of the Blues. Friday Night footy has the potential to be a cracker Hawthorne and Essendon. The Hawks were ultra impressive last week. We know that they went and got the job done. The hype train didn't worry them. The weight of expectation was no issue. They got it done and they got it done through their mins kicking goals. I don't expect to see that week in week out, So Ginevan will need to get involved Nick Watson, who probably gets Dy McGrath. That's a difficult matchup for Watson. He needs to get involved and they'll need to start to get more goals from these small to mid forwards like they did last year to make sure they can be nice and prolific on the other side of the equation. It's going to be a great battle around the footy. Essenon not the deepest midfield. They've got a really strong starting midfield and Sam Draper's going to have to be able to take it up to Lloyd Meek Lloyd Meek.

I'll tell you what.

I've got to put my hand up. I had no idea he was going to develop into this type of ruckman. He's such a presence and he's really consistent these days. So Sam Draper's going to have his work cut out for him. But Merritt and Durham and card well, that's a really really strong starting midfield group. So they're going to have to get after it. They're going to have to get after the opposition, put pressure on Hawthorne and equally when they get their chances, they're going to need to go forward and be really efficient because I know the four line is going to be a work in progress. So i'd expect Hawthorne to win the game. Hopefully Essenon can challenge. It's going to be a big crowd. We're looking at eighty thousand back to back Thursday night Friday night, and I'll tell you what, footy will be back in a big, big way in Victoria. Another game in Victoria the early one Saturday. Two potential finalists, two potential Top four candidates, two potential premiership candidates, Geelong and Fremantle. Jeremy Cameron's usage, You'll be fascinating. I don't want and don't think we'll see him outside fifty as much. He might roam up the ground lad in quarters or maybe early in quarters to get himself in the game. I think the Cats need him inside fifty. I think the Cats need him kicking sixty to seventy goals this season if they are to be that premiership threat. And Patrick Dingerfield's positioning will be fascinating as well. He played ahead of the footy almost all of the preseason in those two contests. I don't think that was real. He hasn't played forward much in the past couple of years. He's played less game time and he spent more time around the footy when he's been out there. So look, I don't think we won't see him in the forward line, but I think he's still going to be that damaging midfielder for them. They haven't got Cam Guthrie, they haven't got Tanner Bruin.

I'm not sure they can.

Afford to have him away from the midfield and away from stoppages. If it's left up to Holmes and maybe Jack Bows and maybe a little bit of Tom Stewart, I think they'll need Daningerfield around the footy, so they're going to be a good watch.

The Cats.

I think they'll be a rock solid team, as they always are. So much of what they do does revolve around grim Myers, who I'd expect will be right there when all Australian calculations are made. Brad Close is a really important part of that team. Sean Matter when healthy as well. He's a bit of a watch for this one in terms of his health. And then guys like Oli Henry Shannon Neil's emergence will be important. They've got plenty of goalkickers and we know Tyson Stengel can get it done on Freo's side of things. No, Sean Darcy, we know. So how many minutes does Luke Jackson play in the ruck? There's a lot of talk and chatter that he's disgruntled at not playing more in the ruck. I don't think he is a guy who can play one hundred minutes a game in the ruck. He doesn't have the size to do so. He's incredibly dynamic, but he's only about two hundred. He's not two five two six like a lot of these ruckman are. That he needs to come up against you know Draper is enormous. We know Lloyd makes a massive, massive man the athleticism of guy like Tom Dakoning, Oscar Mack and Ernie Hues. Tim English is a massive ruckman, so he doesn't have the size to compe against all of these guys. He's more in the row and Marshall mod but we know how dynamic he is around the ground, and being dynamic does take it out of you. So I know why they don't play big minutes in the ruck, but surely he's got to be playing sixty to seventy to seventy five minutes a game in the ruck. He is such a force when he does so speed on the game. For Fremantle, we know that they can get lethargic with ball in hand, they can get a little bit uncontested Mark happy. So I want to see them take the game on Handble receives in the back half of the ground between their defensive fifty meters arc and halfway, I want to see them give some handballs in that part of the ground. I don't expect them to give handballs in their D fifty from Marx, but certainly around halfway give handballs to Jordan Clark and these guys who can launch the footy long and with speed and bring those forwards like Tracy and Amos into the game. It's a big watch on them how they go about it. The other watch for them as Shaye Bolton, their boom recruit, talk of a bit of a stress reaction that certainly rung alarm bells for me. He's a watch for this week and he's a watch for the next few with an issue like that. The other games on Saturday, the Grand Final rematch, how fascinating?

How interesting will this be?

Sydney on the bounce back at home against the Brisbane Lions. I mean, I don't know what to expect from the Lions, to be honest. They haven't trained for the best part of a week. They've got the emotional letdown of Lincoln McCarthy, who's unfortunately done an ACL again just as he's about to resume his career off in ACL the same knee. So it wouldn't surprise me if Brisbane have a bit of a lackluster start. They thought they were going to open the season last week. They haven't trained much, they've had priorities elsewhere and they've had the emotional letdown of Lincoln McCarthy, so it wouldn't surprise me if Sydney were able to win this game. I want to see I want to see more from Sydney in their ball movement. I know they're talking about to focus on team defense and contested ball, getting on loose balls, but they can't forget about the way they move the ball. Some of the kickers in their team are so critically important to them, and I understand Errol Goulden's not there, but I can't recall enough chains or ball movement last week against the Hawks that made you think, yeah, that's the Sydneys ones I saw last year, because that is the part that I thought separated them from other teams last year. I'd expect they'll continue with Tom McCartin upfront, Nick Blakey playing on some of the tall forwards, and I don't mind it.

Give it a.

Few weeks to absolutely work or not work. Don't make the move when you're still unsure. Go to the nth degree, go to the end of the line with it. Make mccarton prove to you that he's not a forward, or make that defensive group tell you that they need mccarton back. In defense, So that's going to be a really, really tregging watch. I think Sydney might win this game, just a few disruptions around Brisbane emotionally. We know they've had so much stuff going on off the field, and they physically haven't been able to train, which is important as well. So I think Sydney will get the job done and get to one and one. The Dogs and the Ruse spoke about this on radio with any Mar and Andrew Gayes. If I'm a North fan, gee, I'm turning up to this game expecting to win. I don't care what the markets say, I don't care what the bookies think will happen. I am turning up to this game thinking we'll be winning the game. The Dogs have got so many guys out of the team, Most of the top ten from last year's best in Ferris for the Dogs either won't be playing at all, or if they do get to the start line, we'll be underdone. So we know BoNT and Pali's not there the winner of the BNF. We know Trae Law's not there. He was equal second. Bailey Dale, who was alongside Trae Law in equal second, either doesn't play or goes in underdone. We know Liam Jones is not there. They're full back. We know Jamara Hugilhagen and Cody Waitton weightman responsible for seventy plus goals last year, won't be there. They've got so many guys not there that the Rus simply have to turn up and win this game. Around the ball, I'd expect North Melbourne to dominate Luke Davis Uniak. You've got Simpkins toughness, you've got Wardlaw, you've got Sheeezel. They've got a really powerful unit. You might get doses of Luke Parker, who's going to be fired up. I'd expect North Melbourne to win this game. I understand and I accept they haven't got matchups necessarily for Sam Darcy and for Aaron Norton. But show me the last time Aaron Norton took a game apart with a.

Bag of goals.

They've got Charlie Combon who can either play on or help play on a Sam Darcy if he's starting to take the game away from you.

Geez.

The Dogs are injury prone at the moment, Cheese. They've got some troubles with their personnel. There's too many things going on at the Western Oval. If I'm a rouse fan, I am going to Marvel Stadium at thirty five minutes past seven on Saturday night and I'm expecting to win the other game Saturday night at the MCG. So we've got two games in Melbourne on Saturday night, which is interesting. No footy in Melbourne last week. Now we've got two games at the same time, Collingwood and Port Adelaide.

Collingwood on the backup.

And this will be an interesting thing to follow as well. Seems have played last week, so teams that are seasoned and have had the run versus the teams who haven't played any real footy thus far Collingwood. I think we'll see some subtle adjustments around the footy. I don't think we'll see still sigh Bottom at center, bounce or on ball. I think we might see more of Josh Dekos up the ground. He played ninety seven percent as a defender last week, didn't take many kick ins, so not sure why he's there necessarily, And a lot of talk about Darcy Moore. But some of the vision I watched during the week of Finn Callahan and Josh Kelly running out the front of stoppage I don't care who you are. I don't care whether you're Matthew Scarlett, Steve Silvanni, my Man the Truck, Ben Rutten. It doesn't matter who you are. Alex Rantz, wouldn't matter. You're not stopping the supply that some of the giants forwards were getting from Callahan and from Callian, from others out of the middle of the ground. There's just got to be more pressure on the ball. There's got to be more pressure and hate around the contest from the Collingwood mids. So whether that's Crisp in there to do that, whether they could put Lapinsky in there to try and do that, whether Perryman can bring that to the table. They just could not get it done last week. And if they can't get that done again, it's Port Adelaide's mits. And I know Zach Butters is not there, but Jason horn Francis is there. Connor Rosie we expect to be there. If he's not, I'll tell you what look out. But how are they going to contain and curtail the Power mids, who are very very good at center bounce. They're a very good center bounced team. They're a very creative center bounce team as well. Their issues are behind the ball and ahead of the ball. But one thing I think you can have a look at, particularly if you're a Port fan, I'd expect some impact from Richards and Barry. They're too running hard high half forwards that they brought in over the summertime. Both guys have been identified in that role. We know how important that role is. You've got guys like Brent Daniels and grind Myers who do it so importantly at other teams. I reckon Port are hoping and potentially expecting Richards and Berry to be able to do that for them. So that's something you can have a look at. And then it's about Lakotias and Georgia Arts. How dangerous and how consistent can those two guys be. I like Georgia Ardi's I think he's a real talent. I think he's capable of kicking fifty goals this season, But Lakosis not as much. We've seen plenty of him. We need to see him be really consistent in a team that's not going to have Todd Marshall and that doesn't anymore have Charlie Dixon. Sunday Port's big rivals. The early game is the Crows and Some Kilda. We know about some injury worries for the Saints. They have had a really really difficult preseason campaign. They've had injuries left, right and center. We know Max King has had his woes. We know Ral Marshall and Mataias Philippo have also had some injury issues as well. So this is going to be a depleted since Kilda football side. Lam Henry's not going to be there, Mitch Owens is in a race against time to be there.

So I don't expect much from Saint Kilda.

They're going to find it hard to score the footy without some of those forwards.

And to be honest, Adelaide should be red hot.

They started the season incredibly poorly last year despite plenty of hype around them. They've brought in Petling and Neil Bullen and coming to really shore up that group, to make them more rounded and tough and hard working. So they've got those three guys in the mix. They'll play half forward, wing, inside mid, maybe even defensive mid.

Some of those guys. I like what they've been able to do.

I like what it potentially looks like ahead of the footy with big Riley Thilthope particularly as more of a focal point. Darcy Foggerty's in the mix, and we know texts can do some damage as well from minimal possession. So look, Adelaide have to be winning that game. I think the head starts about two or three goals or two and a half goals. They should be winning that game convincingly if you ask me. On their home deck against the beaten ups and killed a football club. Melbourne and GWS is the other game on Sunday. Two more games on Sunday to get through Melbourne and GWS. I'm surprised this is so close in terms of the head to head market. The Giants were ultra impressive last week. They probably get Tom Green back, which would be a big bonus for them, particularly up against the big bodies of Petrarca and Oliver around the footy. They were just so impressive, so powerful. Toby Green spoke about the fact, I think it was on a podcast with Tommy Sheridan that they felt physically superior to Collingwood and they looked physically superior. They felt physically superior because they were They felt it because we saw it and it was there for all to see. So they've been a really impressive starter to the season. I like so many of their guys who we know a lot about but we don't necessarily focus on each and every week.

Lucky Whitfield off half back.

All Australian, Josh Kelly, who's been in All Australian often gets looked over for other guys in that team. They're a really talented football team. They showed on the back of a disappointing exit from the finals last year. They're going to be there again when the whips are cracking. Whereas Melbourne they've got to prove it. They've got to prove that they are back. So they've been able to talk all summer. They've been able to tell us how they've reconnected all summer. Christian Petrarca's reconnected, Clayton Oliver's happy and reconnected. They've told us all about that, Harrison Petty's gone from forward to back where he should be. Now we've got to see them live it, and one adjustment I want to see them make is a personnel adjustment.

So Caleb Windsor are.

Really important and impressive young player I called his first ever preseason game last year at Icon Park, he kicked a couple of beautiful running goals and we saw him play some really good footy on the wing.

Last year.

He almost played exclusively as a winger last year. He did not attend to center bounce last year in his first season, and in the preseason game against Fremantle, he spent two thirds of his game in the defensive half of the ground and only one third of the game in the front half of the ground, and again he didn't attend to center bounce. I think they should be using him inside the center bounces, alongside Oliver and Petrarca, or alongside Oliver and Viney when Petrarca's forward. I think this guy's got quick feet, he's got composure. He'll gather the ball, or he will receive the ball and he'll take meters. He'll go forward, he'll run and carry and create overlap. I think they should use him around the ball. It's not expected they will. He played almost all of his time as a winger last year, a tiny little bit of time as a forward. They're telling him he's probably going to play that same role, maybe a little bit more across half back, and that's okay. If they want to use him as a ball user and a distributor, that's okay. But I'll be using him around the ball. I think he can really help them if they do that. And the final game of the weekend is basically a win or else game off the calf for the Gold Coast Suns. It's West Coast hosting Gold Coast, the Battle of the Coast. Look West Coast, we know they're still building brand new coach and Andrew mcqualter. They're still trying to find an identity. They're still trying to build a game plan. But they'll be tricky in this one. They'll be tricky early when some of their veterans are engaged and enthused and their young players are happy and healthy and ready to rock and roll.

It'll be once those young and.

Old guys, particularly less so the guys in the middle. Those guys get banged up, the young guys get tired. That's when you'll see West Coast form dip and probably the same for Richmond.

But from a.

Gold Coast perspective, they've just got to go get the job done. Now I'm hearing that mac and won't be there that's a blow, but they match up quite nicely on the West Coast threats in front of the footy and Allen and Wardaman with Sam Collins and Charlie Ballard. You've got body Yuland in the mix there as well. He could play on a Jake Wardman type at a pinch, but they've got to get it done. They should win comprehensively around the footy and Ben King I think will be the key forward of the weekend who has a massive game. So no Tom Barriss back there anymore. We know McGovern will try and help and impact in the air, but Ben King should be a massive focal point for them. Jed Walter's had an extra preseason now under his belt. We'll see what he can bring to the party. But gold Co should be winning that game of footy. Absolutely all ends up should be winning that game of footy.

So that's the nine games. Now quickly recap and.

Tip you're all right, let's go quickly. Carlton by six or seven goals. I expect Hawthorne to win by about twenty points. On Friday night, the Cats just at home against Fremantle. The visiting team has won the past two games between those two, I think Sydney despite the fact they're underdogs at home with all the disruptions Brisbane I have had to put up with. I think Sydney you'll get it done. I'm with North Melbourne in a big way against the depleted Dogs on Saturday night. The other match in Melbourne on Saturday night, I'm just with Collingwood at home against Port Adelaide. Then Sunday Adelaide should win easily against the Saints. The Giants will be too classy for Melbourne despite what they are going to tell us they're bringing to the table. And finally Gold Coast must win, should win, will win, and they'll be undefeated on the road.

In twenty twenty five, you're within inde all right.

That's the wrap twenty four twenty five minutes on the Knocker.

Thanks for listening.

Make sure you check out kick Ons, the show that must Jason Richardson and Cane Corns are a part of.

You can see that show live.

Sorry, it's on air after Thursday Night Footy, so about eleven o'clock Thursday Night Footy. But you can also catch it on seven Plus. You can stream it whenever you like. And it's also available on YouTube. You'll see plenty of e clips on social media as well. And then Monday and exciting new venture. Bigger Footy. Bigger footy. Not the fan forum website, it's bigger. It's Bigger Footy. Myself, Pado, Moth and Flanners, some notable to guys from the clubby Sports Roster. We're gonna sit down every Monday morning and we are going to drop some wisdom. We're going to drop some dimes. We're going to get it done when it comes to breaking down the big issues and the big games across the AFL. So make sure you look at for that at about lunchtime each and every Monday across the AFL season.

My name's JJ.

Thanks for listening, enjoy a full slate of footy and we'll chat again next week.

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