Josh Jenkins is back with a full preview of the 2025 AFL Opening Round.
Listen as JJ breaks down all the action for this week's matches, plus stay tuned for some exciting announcements as we kick off the new AFL season.
00:00 – The AFL Season is Back (kind of)
01:45 – Sydney Swans season preview
06:50 – Hawthorn season preview
09:42 – Sydney vs Hawthorn preview
10:18 – GWS vs Collingwood preview
14:11 – Should we keep Opening Round?
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We're back.
We're back, We're back, We're kinder back. The AFL season is here. The AFL season is here, Kinder. We've got a cyclone bearing down on Southeast Quenslan in the first in forty or fifty years. Therefore, not one but two games in opening round have been postponed. My name is JJ, Welcome to the field, and I was short and hopefully shiny pod for you to listen to on your morning job, lunchtime walk, maybe evening bike ride, whatever the case may be.
Maybe you're at pilates and you don't want.
To talk to the person on the reformer beside you, so you chuck the air pods in, or the beats By dresin, whatever the case may be. Thanks for tuning in. As I mentioned, disappointing opening round. We had four games scheduled, we're down to two. So Brisbane, the reigning premier, who were planning on unveiling their premiership flag in front of the Cats, the team they beat in the prelim. That game won't happen, nor will Gold Coast playing host to Essendon. So the two games in Southeast Queensland both postponed, they'll be played at a later date. At this stage Wednesday afternoon as I'm sitting here at TBC when both those games will be played. So two games on the slate, the rest are on a bye. Sydney and Hawthorne now opens the twenty twenty five Toyota AFL Premiership season at the SCG AKA, the Sydney Cricket Ground. And what a fascinating contest this will be the Swanees off the back of a humiliating another humiliating Grand Final defeat, a sixty point hammering where they were completely torn apart by the Brisbane Lions. How do they react? How do they respond? What do they look like under new coach Dean Cox and what type of changes do they make? What type of adjustments does Dean Cox wish to make. Cast your mind back to Sydney Swan's games over the past couple of years, even when they've been dominant, even when they've been playing in games where they've been winning comprehensively, and a lot of back and forth between Dean Cox and John Longmeyer. I know the horse John Longmi would sit on the bench a fair bit. Excuse the email, but when they're in the box. You could often see Cox and Longmire certainly having spirited debates about the way the game's being played, and I wonder if some of that was Dean Cock having a difference of opinion on the way the team defended, which is something he's spoken about, the way the team did or did not attack the contest, which is something he's spoken about. The Swanees have really fallen away badly. And loose ball gets a key metric when it comes to contested possession. So when you see someone in the AFL media talk about contested ball or contested possession or they're beaten up in contested possession. Yes, that can mean aerially contested marks, it can mean free kicks, it can mean you and I are standing shoulder to shoulder and winning the ball in a contested situation. But what it largely means is loose ball gets ground ball gets so when the ball spills, even though it might be a contested situation per se, that still counts as a contested possession. And Sydney really away in that phase in that loose ball gets phase, which is a little.
Bit surprising to me. Now.
Part of it is because they do move the ball so well, and they are quite slick with ball in hand, and they do go from one end of the ground to the other more so or as much as anyone else in the competition. But that is interesting. When they've got guys who are quite dynamic, who are fleet footed, who can move, who can run, who are agile, that is a bit of a surprise. So that's something Dean Cox will be wishing to tidy up. But the reason why I'm a little bit cool on the Swans now, look in my top eight, which counts for absolutely stuff all. I had them in fourth, but shit will not surprise me if they missed the eight entirely. It will not surprise me if the Sydneys once missed the eight totally, because look, the scars and the mental anguish has to be there, and I've lived this. We lost our Grand Final to Richmond by eight goals, not sixty points, not far off, but it was certainly very humiliating to go there expected to either win the game or play incredibly well and be hard to beat. Sydney exact same situation. They'd been the number one seed all season long. That arrived on Grand Final day with the experience of twenty two under their belt and they didn't get it done, and they got belted and they were hammered and the game was over at halftime. So they've got to carry that baggage all season long. And I've been really strong on this point, this perspective. The Swans players and the club as a whole have to find a way to enjoy each week for what it is. Enjoy the wins and endure the losses together and live in the moment. Because if that football club lives in the space where they only think they can rectify and they only think they can enjoy their football again if they get back to a Grand Final and win it, then they won't get back there. Because in twenty eighteen, in the year after we had lost a Grand Final, we won a few games across the season. And you go on the road and you play at Marvel Stadium in front of twenty two thousand people, and you win a game you're supposed to win by twelve goals and you win it by three goals, and you make it feel like a loss. You make it feel like you played terribly when in actual fact, you didn't play great, but you still found a way to win. A game of AFL footy, which is not easy to do. So Sydney have to find a way to enjoy each and every moment for what it is. Live in the moment, be present and that'll give themselves a chance to get back to Grand Final they were. Of course, they'll be hoping to make amends. So that's the Sydneys ones. I need to see them before them all in on the Swanees for twenty five. Hawthorne are similarish. They've also got to carry a burden. They've got to carry the weight of expectation. Now Hawks fans will probably be saying yeah, yeah, yeah, get something original, but the reality is there is now a massive weight of expectation on the Hawthorne foota club. Last year they crept up on the competition and by the time the competition had realized how good they were, they were a snowball rolling down the hill. They were just off and gone. They barely lost a game in the back half of the season. They lost a couple that they should have probably won and they were away.
I thought they were a little.
Disappointing in that semi final against Port Adelaide. I expected them to get the job done, but they didn't, so they start from scratch and they've got a more difficult draw. Dyull've had teams spend more time, more opposition analysis on them. What made them good last year? Why did they move the ball so swiftly? How do they defend? What do they do around stoppage? Do they send extra players around the footy? Do they hold six forwards? Can you manipulate their backs? Are they going to be two top heavy down back with three maybe four key defenders at six foot four and above? And then mechanically what does it look like for them in the forward half. So Kelsha Dear's got a Nigel to start the season. We know Mitch lewis their Spearhead's not going to be there for quite some time. Mabi or Chol had a fantastic season versus what we expected from him. And then you've got Jack Gunston, who liked the rest of us, is not getting any younger. So can you expect the same output from Gunston? Will you get the same output from mabior Chol And will you get the same instant impact.
More often than not from.
Luke Bruce if he used to play that sub role again, and if those guys, if those bigger guys and older guys don't have the seasons they had last year. Even more weight of scoring and creating scores and winning the ball in the forard half of the ground will fall on the shoulders of Dylan Moore and Jack Ginovan and Nick Watson and McKenzie and McDonald and do not get me wrong, these guys are super players. But it's difficult to ask those guys to be able to create enough opportunities for others but also be the ones to kick goals. Because if Chole's not having a big goal kicking season, if Gunston's struggling, if Kelsha Deer takes a little longer to come back and return to form, then all of a sudden, those smalls are going to need to be kicking ten or eleven goals between them. And that's a big ask. So Sydney and Hawthorne look round one or round zero, I should say, opening round the class will tell us a fair bit, but it won't tell us a full story. The only way I think you can afford or should get carried away with this game is if Sydney get absolutely hammered, because then may you do say, look, Hawthorne have absolutely picked up where they left off. But what do you make of the Sydney Swans. I think it'll be a close game. I think it'll be hard for it. And if you're looking for a tip, I've got no idea, absolutely no idea. You're with GDWS and Collingwood all of a sudden, this is an absolute blockbuster. So Jesse Hogan bangs's thumb in the door of a bus, something obscure, he's out, Jake string has got a hamstring niggle, and Collingwood without Jordan de Goweye. Now, if you look at those two losses, take Stringer out of it because he's never been there. But Hogan out of GWS, I think he's more impactful than de Goey out of Collingwood. Now, Hogan, of course he's the reigning Colman Medalist, but that aside. If you think about the way these two teams will have planned, and you spend a lot of time time planning and preparing for round or your first game, I've got to stop saying round one. You spend a lot of time preparing and planning for your first game. You almost treat it like a final, You treat it almost more importantly than you should and the reality is round two and round three and round four are worth the same and mean the same, but you just spend so much more time preparing for the opening game of the season. And for the Giants, they will have planned for this game thinking Jesse Hogan would be their spearhead, would be their main target inside forward fifty, would be the big dog to command that forward line luck he did last year. Whereas Collingwood, I'd imagine they will have known Jordan de goey was unlikely to get to the start line, so they're preparing, they're looking, they're setting their team up without Jordan de Gooey, so it's no surprise to them, Whereas it probably jolted the Giants a little bit to learn their Coleman it'll winning. Key Ford was not going to be there, so fascinating. The market basically flipped on its head now it favors Collingwood with the news that Jesse Hogan will miss the game. I think it'll be a ripper. I think it'll be an absolute cracker. I reckon the Giants will have some struggles trying to contain that half back turnover game of Collingwood's. We saw it again in the preseason. We saw them electrifying in that space and that manner in their premiership year. So you think about Crisp and sigh Bottom and Pendlebury and Dacos and Dacos and the Pinsky and now Dan Houston, who's probably better than all of those guys not named Nick Dakos in that half back turnover game. You think about what those guys can do as a group and what they can do for their forwards because it's not a star starded forward line for Collingwood. My checks back he's super important, Ali it will be there. Bobby Hill is such a key player for them, But it's a working class forward line. It's a hard working forward line that does rely on really good supply and really fast supply in space and I think they'll get that against the Giants. The Giants defense is a bit bigger, stronger with Taylor and Buckley and Himmelberg. Those guys are set up to be the ball coming in straight lines with less speed on it and coming in high and long and those guys dealing with the footy. So it's going to be a fascinating battle of game styles. Can Collingwood get this game into chaos and Ken, Whitfield and Himmelberg and Lockey Ash and Kelly and Coninglio. Can they control the ball with uncontested marks? I think if GWS can take one hundred and ten one hundred and twenty uncontested marks in this game, they'll be winning. If Collingwood can put this ball on the ground and have the ball live largely on the ground in chaos in contest, they'll probably win the game. So two absolute crackers, even though we all.
Wish there were nine. You're within.
Couple of quick ones before I get out of here. It's been fourteen minutes. I wanted to keep it to ten opening round. Look, the closer it gets, the less I like it. And not because a cyclone a hurricane has interrupted half of opening round. We only had four games to begin with. But the closer it gets, the more I think. Look, I've got no problem. The A in AFL stands for Australian, so I get it, I understand it, and I'm all good with it. If you want to open the season up in the Northern States, that's fine. Have your Thursday not footy in New South Wales or Queensland. Have Friday not footy in New South Wales or Queensland. But I think we need to start the season with all eighteen teams engaged. So it's a long weekend. This weekend, we've got Labor Day Monday. Why isn't there a big game of footy at the mc or Marvel Stadium or wherever on Monday afternoon. It's going to be beautiful weather, twenty five degrees, beautifully sunny. Don't tell me you wouldn't get sixty or seventy thousand to the MCG for a game between Carlton and Melbourne, or Richmond and Melbourne or the Dogs in Carlton, one of those big Melbourne clubs involved. Don't tell me you wouldn't get a big crowd. So I think we've missed a trick there. I understand the desire to go to the Northern States to showcase the game. You can still achieve that Andrew Dillon and Laura Kane. But when Saturday and Sunday and maybe even Monday come around, let's have the rest of the season get underway as well. It just feels a bit disjointed. You've got some fans fully engaged, some fans excited, others just annoyed at the fact the season is starting but their team is not involved. It's a fascinating situation. I get it, I seriously do. But if if it were me in Andrew Dillon's seat, firstly, I'll be counting the cash and secondly I'd be keeping opening round. But I'd be playing all lady in teams. All right, that's enough for me, I said ten minutes. It's been sixteen. If your team is playing one of four engaged in opening round, good luck. It's been a long summer trade period. Doesn't feel like that long ago. We're talking about Chad Warner and Harley Reid and Jamara Yuglaghan and these guys moving already. But let's actually play some games of footy.
Let's do it.
Collingwood and the Giants and the Swane's and the Hawks. The Swane's and the Hawks to open the season at seven point forty this Friday night. If you are seeking more AFL content, make sure you have a listen to Kick Ons. It's a brand new show. Myself, Cane Corns and Jason Richardson. We recorded the show this morning. It's going to be after Thursday night forty each and every week we're gonna try and find you a winner, but mostly we're going to tackle the big issues. Caine and I are going to go head to head. I'm not gonna let him get away with anything. And We've got a new little segment at the end of the show called Khan Kine where I'm keeping an eye on Cane Corn's He's on every platform known to man. He's got a lot to say, he says it all, and whenever he just misssteps and speaks out of school and potentially contradicts himself.
I'll be there to catch him out.
So make sure you check out kick Ons Thursday nights after Thursday Night Footy, even though there's no footy, it will be on this week.
And then Monday mornings.
I'm jumping in with the clubby Sports team, myself, Adam Patterson aka Pado, Josh Moffatt aka Moth, and Tommy Flannagan aka Flanners. We're going to get round the table at clubby Sports and we're gonna talk footy. We're going to talk shop with Bigger Footy, a brand new podcast offering from clubby Sports. So Thursday Night, kick Ons, Monday Morning Slash Monday lunchtime bigger footy and hopefully you can still tune into the field here, there and everywhere. Thanks for listening, enjoy season twenty twenty five and I'll chat to you soon.