Could the mortgage cliff in 2023 be the start of a new era for the property market? Over the next few months many Australians will come off fixed rates and face higher mortgage repayments. But is this just a short-term blip, or could it have a lasting impact on the property market?

To help us better understand the potential impact of the mortgage cliff, we're joined by Martin North, the founder of Digital Finance Analytics. Martin is an expert on mortgage stress in Australia, and he publishes a number of relevant indices on defaults, mortgage stress, and consumer confidence.

In this episode, Martin shares his thoughts on the scale of the problem and who is most at risk. He discusses how the current interest rate hike cycle will impact different segments of the property market. Martin also shares his insights on how the market as a whole might respond to the mortgage cliff and whether we can expect to see a significant slowdown in property prices.

So whether you're a homeowner, property investor, or mortgage broker, this is an episode you won't want to miss.

Episode Highlights:

00:00 - Mortgage stress in Australia - what is the scale of the problem and who is most at risk?

01:03 - Who is Martin North?

02:15 - What’s coming up over the next six months for mortgage rates?

05:55 - Are fixed mortgage rates going to have an immediate effect on home sales?

08:48 - Percentage of loans in big banks' loan books written during low-interest-rate periods

11:32 - How are first-time homebuyers impacted by the current economic climate?

14:51 - What impact do price wars have on banks' net interest margins?

22:01 - What is currently going on in the housing market?

26:04 - Martin’s thoughts on the property market splitting

28:19 - Different trends in property prices across different regions in Australia

36:12 - How does property composition affect price dynamics?

38:31 - What is the most significant linkage to house price movement?

41:28 - Is borrowing capacity as important as buying capacity?

43:27 - Martin’s outlook for the interest rates in Australia and the global economy

45:20 - Boom or bust? A peek into the Australian property market for February to March

47:27 - The impact of the RBA lift on buying power and credit availability

48:47 - What are the dangers of waiting for the bottom to happen?

51:22 - More thoughts on the increased inequality in the society

54:45 - Martin North’s property dumbo

56:40 - Martin North’s anti-dumbo

About Our Guest:

Martin North is a prominent researcher who specialises in the mortgage lending, savings payments, and superannuation sectors. He is the founder of Digital Finance Analytics — a boutique research, analysis, and consulting firm. He has a long history of research in mortgage stress in Australia and publishes relevant indices on defaults, mortgage stress, and consumer confidence. In addition to his work in finance, he curates the YouTube channel "Walk the World," where he covers finance and property news with a distinctively Australian flavour and invites controversial guests. He is also a founding director of Asbestos Awareness Australia, a registered charity he established with his late wife, Jill, in 2021.

Connect with Martin North:
Subscribe to Martin’s YT Channel “Walk the World”: https://www.youtube.com/c/walktheworlddfa
Connect with Martin North on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martin-north-6a799182/
Visit Martin North’s website: https://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/

Resources:
The Elephant in The Room Property Podcast Episode 218 https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/218
Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.wealthful.com.au
Work with Chris: hello@wealthful.com.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!
Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765

Could the mortgage cliff in 2023 be the start of a new era for the property market? Over the next few months many Australians will come off fixed rates and face higher mortgage repayments. But is this just a short-term blip, or could it have a lasting impact on the property market?
To help us better understand the potential impact of the mortgage cliff, we're joined by Martin North, the founder of Digital Finance Analytics. Martin is an expert on mortgage stress in Australia, and he publishes a number of relevant indices on defaults, mortgage stress, and consumer confidence.
In this episode, Martin shares his thoughts on the scale of the problem and who is most at risk. He discusses how the current interest rate hike cycle will impact different segments of the property market. Martin also shares his insights on how the market as a whole might respond to the mortgage cliff and whether we can expect to see a significant slowdown in property prices.
So whether you're a homeowner, property investor, or mortgage broker, this is an episode you won't want to miss.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Mortgage stress in Australia - what is the scale of the problem and who is most at risk?
01:03 - Who is Martin North?
02:15 - What’s coming up over the next six months for mortgage rates?
05:55 - Are fixed mortgage rates going to have an immediate effect on home sales?
08:48 - Percentage of loans in big banks' loan books written during low-interest-rate periods
11:32 - How are first-time homebuyers impacted by the current economic climate?
14:51 - What impact do price wars have on banks' net interest margins?
22:01 - What is currently going on in the housing market?
26:04 - Martin’s thoughts on the property market splitting
28:19 - Different trends in property prices across different regions in Australia
36:12 - How does property composition affect price dynamics?
38:31 - What is the most significant linkage to house price movement?
41:28 - Is borrowing capacity as important as buying capacity?
43:27 - Martin’s outlook for the interest rates in Australia and the global economy
45:20 - Boom or bust? A peek into the Australian property market for February to March
47:27 - The impact of the RBA lift on buying power and credit availability
48:47 - What are the dangers of waiting for the bottom to happen?
51:22 - More thoughts on the increased inequality in the society
54:45 - Martin North’s property dumbo
56:40 - Martin North’s anti-dumbo
About Our Guest:
Martin North is a prominent researcher who specialises in the mortgage lending, savings payments, and superannuation sectors. He is the founder of Digital Finance Analytics — a boutique research, analysis, and consulting firm. He has a long history of research in mortgage stress in Australia and publishes relevant indices on defaults, mortgage stress, and consumer confidence. In addition to his work in finance, he curates the YouTube channel "Walk the World," where he covers finance and property news with a distinctively Australian flavour and invites controversial guests. He is also a founding director of Asbestos Awareness Australia, a registered charity he established with his late wife, Jill, in 2021.
Connect with Martin North:
<ul>
<li aria-level="1">Subscribe to Martin’s YT Channel “Walk the World”: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/walktheworlddfa">https://www.youtube.com/c/walktheworlddfa</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Connect with Martin North on LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/martin-north-6a799182/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/martin-north-6a799182/</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Visit Martin North’s website: <a href="https://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/">https://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/</a></li>
</ul>
Resources:
<ul>
<li aria-level="1">The Elephant in The Room Property Podcast Episode 218 <a href="https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/218">https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/218</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Visit our website <a href="https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au">https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - <a href="mailto:questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au">questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? <a href="http://www.gooddeeds.com.au/">https://www.gooddeeds.com.au</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Work with Veronica: <a href="http://www.veronicamorgan.com.au">https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Looking for a Mortgage Broker? <a href="https://www.wealthful.com.au/">https://www.wealthful.com.au</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Work with Chris: <a href="mailto:hello@wealthful.com.au">hello@wealthful.com.au</a></li>
</ul>
Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!
<ul>
<li aria-level="1">Subscribe on YouTube: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast">https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719">https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Subscribe on Spotify: <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765">https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765</a></li>
</ul>

Who's really in control when you buy a property?

The Elephant In The Room is where the things that no one wants to talk about, actually get talked about.  

Veronica Morgan, real estate agent, buyers agent and co-host of Foxtel’s Location Location Location Australia & Chris Bates, financial planner, mortgage broker and wealth coach have joined forces to find out what’s really going on in the world of real estate.

Veronica and Chris talk to property owners and buyers every day in their respective lines of business. They’ve observed a wide spectrum of confidence in people’s decision making ability when buying and selling property, often to the detriment of the individuals concerned. They are both fascinated by consumer behaviour and together they’re going to uncover who’s really making the decisions when you buy a property.

In each episode they get into the psyche of buyers, agents, auctioneers and other industry experts to learn the truth about how buyers are influenced and why they do the things they do. In every episode you’ll learn from the mistakes of a “property dumbo” as well as Chris & Veronica’s “elephant rider bootcamp” training session.

The plan? This property podcast has been created to help us all make better property decisions!

We talk about the things no one wants to talk about in the Property Market

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