Although rarely proven to come true, predictions by big banks are not merely speculative, but forecasts backed up by research and data…

But how exactly do bank economists come up with these property forecasts?

Felicity Emmett, Senior Economist at ANZ, joins us today to reveal the process big banks use to create housing market predictions based on the Australian economy… What data and key inputs do bank economists use for forecasting and analysis? 

We also discuss the impact of property market forecasting on consumer confidence, the relationship between inflation and interest rates, and the current housing affordability crisis. 

If you enjoyed the show, do like, rate, subscribe, and share us on social media and if you have your own questions you need clarity on, email us at questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au!

See you in the episode!



Episode Highlights:
Why do big banks create property forecasts? [01:39]
Challenges bank economists encounter with forecasting [03:46]
Inputs into the forecasting process for the housing market [07:01]
The impact on house prices on consumer confidence [13:35]
The relationship between inflation and interest rates [19:29]
Consumer confidence in the property market [24:17]
The effect of capacity constraints in the economy [28:24]
Why it’s important to keep inflation down [32:30]
The current housing affordability crisis [34:20]
The effects of regulatory changes [38:42]
Who is the vulnerable sector in a possible recession? [44:00]
Stimulus measures to stabilize prices [48:08]
Why makes forecasting difficult to achieve accuracy? [50:36]



About our Guest:

Felicity Emmett is Senior Economist in the Australian Economic team at ANZ. With more than 20 years of experience as an economist in financial markets, Felicity is responsible for analysis and forecasting of key Australian macroeconomic indicators, as well as thematic research on the Australian economy. She also provides specialist analysis on topical issues, including the housing sector and the policy outlook.



Connect with Us:
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? www.wealthful.com.au
Work with Chris: hello@wealthful.com.au
Send in your questions to: questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au



Find this episode on our website:

https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/246



If you’ve enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to like, share, rate and subscribe for more!

Although rarely proven to come true, predictions by big banks are not merely speculative, but forecasts backed up by research and data…
But how exactly do bank economists come up with these property forecasts?
Felicity Emmett, Senior Economist at ANZ, joins us today to reveal the process big banks use to create housing market predictions based on the Australian economy… What data and key inputs do bank economists use for forecasting and analysis? 
We also discuss the impact of property market forecasting on consumer confidence, the relationship between inflation and interest rates, and the current housing affordability crisis. 
If you enjoyed the show, do like, rate, subscribe, and share us on social media and if you have your own questions you need clarity on, email us at questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au!
See you in the episode!
 
Episode Highlights:
<ol>
<li aria-level="1">Why do big banks create property forecasts? [01:39]</li>
<li aria-level="1">Challenges bank economists encounter with forecasting [03:46]</li>
<li aria-level="1">Inputs into the forecasting process for the housing market [07:01]</li>
<li aria-level="1">The impact on house prices on consumer confidence [13:35]</li>
<li aria-level="1">The relationship between inflation and interest rates [19:29]</li>
<li aria-level="1">Consumer confidence in the property market [24:17]</li>
<li aria-level="1">The effect of capacity constraints in the economy [28:24]</li>
<li aria-level="1">Why it’s important to keep inflation down [32:30]</li>
<li aria-level="1">The current housing affordability crisis [34:20]</li>
<li aria-level="1">The effects of regulatory changes [38:42]</li>
<li aria-level="1">Who is the vulnerable sector in a possible recession? [44:00]</li>
<li aria-level="1">Stimulus measures to stabilize prices [48:08]</li>
<li aria-level="1">Why makes forecasting difficult to achieve accuracy? [50:36]</li>
</ol>
 
About our Guest:
Felicity Emmett is Senior Economist in the Australian Economic team at ANZ. With more than 20 years of experience as an economist in financial markets, Felicity is responsible for analysis and forecasting of key Australian macroeconomic indicators, as well as thematic research on the Australian economy. She also provides specialist analysis on topical issues, including the housing sector and the policy outlook.
 
Connect with Us:
<ul>
<li aria-level="1">Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? <a href="http://www.gooddeeds.com.au/">www.gooddeeds.com.au</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Work with Veronica: <a href="https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan">https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Looking for a Mortgage Broker? <a href="https://www.wealthful.com.au/">www.wealthful.com.au</a></li>
<li aria-level="1">Work with Chris: <a href="mailto:hello@wealthful.com.au">hello@wealthful.com.au</a> </li>
<li aria-level="1">Send in your questions to: <a href="mailto:questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au">questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au</a> </li>
</ul>
 
Find this episode on our website:
<a href="https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/246">https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/246</a>
 
If you’ve enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to like, share, rate and subscribe for more!

Who's really in control when you buy a property?

The Elephant In The Room is where the things that no one wants to talk about, actually get talked about.  

Veronica Morgan, real estate agent, buyers agent and co-host of Foxtel’s Location Location Location Australia & Chris Bates, financial planner, mortgage broker and wealth coach have joined forces to find out what’s really going on in the world of real estate.

Veronica and Chris talk to property owners and buyers every day in their respective lines of business. They’ve observed a wide spectrum of confidence in people’s decision making ability when buying and selling property, often to the detriment of the individuals concerned. They are both fascinated by consumer behaviour and together they’re going to uncover who’s really making the decisions when you buy a property.

In each episode they get into the psyche of buyers, agents, auctioneers and other industry experts to learn the truth about how buyers are influenced and why they do the things they do. In every episode you’ll learn from the mistakes of a “property dumbo” as well as Chris & Veronica’s “elephant rider bootcamp” training session.

The plan? This property podcast has been created to help us all make better property decisions!

We talk about the things no one wants to talk about in the Property Market

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