Mark Carney

Published Oct 19, 2023, 2:29 PM

Brookfield Asset Management Chair Mark Carney recounts his one-of-a-kind career trajectory from Governor of the Bank of Canada to Governor of the Bank of England and shares his current economic outlook, including another rate hike from the Federal Reserve in 2023.  He speaks on "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations." This interview was recorded October 2 in New York. Mark Carney has been named Chairman of Bloomberg Inc.'s board of directors.

One of the most admired, respected, and busiest global leaders in the world is Mark Carney. He served for a number of years as the Governor of the Bank of Canada for a number of additional years as the Governor of the Bank of England. He currently serves as a Special UN Envoy for Climate Action Finance, and he also chairs Brookfield Asset Management. I had a chance to sit down with Mark recently to talk about how he does all these things so well, Mark has been the Bank of Canada governor, been the governor of the Bank of England. Has anybody ever been the governor of two different central banks in two different countries.

No, I don't think so.

And so in addition to that, in addition to that, you are also the chairman of Brookfield Asset Management, and you are the new chairman of Bloomberg. So you obviously like b Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bloomberg and Brookfield. But there's a story in the latest edition of a Canadian newspaper like two days ago that's saying that you might also be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

So any interest in that in the story, not in the story per se. The you know, It's interesting you you say the same thing over and over, but it gets heard differently in different contexts. And I think that story is probably more indication of the current environment in Canada.

In other words, you wouldn't be uninterested in that.

I'm interested that we have an effective prime minister in Kenada. Okay, so Prime Minister Trudeau, and you know him. I know him well, yes, and he's done very so.

But we'll take that as maybe all right, so I won't pursue that anymore. All right, let me ask you, as the Bank of England governor and as the Bank of Canada governor, do you think the other the central banks recently figured out that inflation was more serious than it was too late? Or do you think they recognized early when it was going to be serious they just didn't do enough about it.

No.

I think in hindsight they realized it too late. They were operating under the old paradigm, if you will. It was an issue of not enough demand, and that is something that works well generally until you have a bunch of supply shocks. And we had a COVID supply shock, we had an energy supply shock. We had supply shoks with supply chains, geopolitics, all of which meant that there was more than transitory inflation, and it took a while for some of the central banks to fully recognize that and start to respond.

Now that they have did recognize it, do you think they've done enough? And do you see any more rate increases likely to come about? There are many people in the market who think that maybe another rate increase in the United States is likely.

What do you think about that?

Yeah, well, first first part of the question, and I think that once they started to move, and particularly when the FED started to move, it did respond in a very effective manner. It's consistently surprised people with it how resolute it was and what it was prepared to do. It recognized that the bigger risk was that inflation stayed high or worsened, and it has put us in a position, put the US in a position where inflation is increasingly under control, not totally under control. And that gets to the second part of your question, which is, I know, if I have to choose a camp, I be in the camp of I expect that there will be a bit more tightening by the Fed, so probably an additional rate increase this year, But.

What's as important.

In fact, what's more important is the path of policy over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months. And I think it's finally beginning to be recognized. It's been a painful few weeks for some of the market in getting recognition that it's not just about where the rate is today, it's not just about the peak, but it's the path, and the path of rates is very much and I've been in this view for a while, higher for longer, in order to ensure that policy is adequately tight to bring inflation fully back to that two percent.

When I was in the White House as a young man, we were running for reelection under Jimmy Carter, and the head of the inflation Effort fighting inflation effort was a man named Fred Kahn, former Cornell professor, and he went out into the White House briefing room one day and said, I think we're going to have a recession. Well, Carter hauled him into the oval. Officer said Fred, I'm running for reelection. Do not use the R word. It scares people. And fred Kahn said, well, what am I supposed to do? I have to be honest, be honest, but don't use the R word. So the next time Fred Kahn went out and he said, I think we're heading into a banana.

He used the word banana.

As a substitute of recession for figuring reporters wouldn't put that in the headline. So are we heading into a banana? Do you think or you think we're not going into a banana?

Well, I think the.

Likelihood of banana has gone down. Actually, to be clear, the FED has done quite a masterful job. Other things have helped. But if you look at and you asked me a moment ago rightly about unemployment and getting back to the two percent, what's happened in the US, almost uniquely in the US is there hasn't been a sharp rise in unemployment. There's been a fall in vacancies, something that hasn't happened in the past. But of course this cycle is quite different than any previous cycles. So the Fed's been able to thus far ease some of the pressure in the labor market by reducing vacancies as opposed to increasing unemployment. That, plus the other aspects of the resilience that we've seen in the US economy makes recession less likely because the reality is, you know, if you get half a percent or certainly a full percent. Historically, anytime the unemployment rate in the US had risen by at least half of percent, there's been a recession. It's just you get the compounding effect that hasn't happened, So the probability's gone down, but there's still lots.

When you're the head of the central back in Canada, do you kind of refer a lot to what the US was doing because your economy so tied to the US. Or do you say, look, we're we're going to do what we want to do. We don't care what the US is going to do. You consult a lot.

We obsess about the US as the short answer, because it's the most impactful external factor for the Canadian economy. And there's also some you know, some of the things that drive growth in the United States, they're common factors that drive growth and or inflation in Canada. Let's talk about your background. So where did you grow up in Canada?

Where were you born?

I was born in Fort Smith in the Northwest Territories.

And you're the Arctic and you're in the Northwest Territories. Yeah, that's very far up.

It is very far up Yeah, So what we're your emphasis on the north and what were your parents doing there?

My parents were teachers.

And did you ever tay to them that's pretty far up north to be living. And did they ever move closer? They moved, we moved. Well, it's interesting.

I mean it's whatever two hour flights south to Edmonton, which.

Is probably then you grow up in Edmonton.

I grew up in Edmonton. I went to Yes, And so you were a hockey player too. I was a hockey player.

Yes. So you played Harvard hockey at Harvard's right, I did? Yes?

Ish I opened the gate. I was a goalie, so I opened the gate for a lot of very good players.

Really.

So were you a star at Harvard in the hockey world or.

I was very good at opening the gate? Yes? But you never consider going to the NHL?

Yeah?

I considered it. They didn't. The NHL did not consider it. Maybe in some sort of administrative role.

But okay, So after you graduated, you went to do something like investment banking and you went to Goldman Sacks.

I went to Golden Sacks in London, yes, nineteen eighty eight. And what did you do there?

I worked, Actually I worked in the credit department. So yeah, credit analysis, which was probably the best thing I could have done, because you know, you build up a fundamental skill.

How many people go to Goldman after college a young get an MBA and you decided not to get an MBA but to get a PhD in economics. Why did you want a PhD economics?

I wanted to well, I thought that at some point i'd work in public policy, and I thought it would be more useful. And I toyed a bit with being an academic as well. My father was ended up being a professor ultimately.

So you did this in Oxford. Why didn't you do a university in the United States or Canada?

Why did you get the way to England? Yeah?

It was To be honest, you could do a PhD in Oxford in three years, as opposed to if you're in the US system as a doctor student, you spend a huge amount of time teaching, which is great if you're going to be an academic. If you want the academic training, though, it means that the average time is most.

So when you were in Oxford, did you also played hockey? Rint? Right? I did? And where you was a star or you're a star.

Yeah, okay, So you stayed at Goldman for how many years?

I was back?

In total, I was thirteen years at Goldman, but eight almost ten years, I guess.

So what the highest level you reached.

That Goldman was to be a managing director managing director, So managing director, a managing director?

Okay, So why did you leave Goldman? Some people think it's the greatest thing in the world to be a Goldman managing director. Why did you decide to leave and go back to Canada?

But I had an opportunity to become Deputy governor at the Bank of Canada. I've always had an interest in public policy. It was unique, unique opportunity and I fully huge respect for the guy who was governor at the time, David Dodge.

And so how.

Would they have heard of you? You're an investment banker in Goldman. People in Canada are They.

Had an end. They put an ad in the paper and I applied.

They put an ad in the paper and you responded, wow, okay, that's how.

You got a job. Okay.

Well now it's like, okay, so it's not how you got to be the governor as well? You responded to that.

Well, they knew they knew okay, well no, but you know for the governor as well. I mean that's become the norm now central banks do put ads. I don't think the face. So you're the deputy governor. You then went to the Finance. I went to the Finance Department and I worked with Yeah, I was one of the Then you become the governor and I became the governor Stephen Harper, and that was an easy time because there was no recession, there was no problems, the economy was going well well. I yeah, basically I remember saying to Diana, my wife's that.

Look.

I mean we had young kids, like you know, this job, you know you make eight decisions a year. You know exactly when you make those decisions, you know, work life balance.

It was going to work.

Great and U and two weeks after I started, bear Stearn's failed. Ultimately you finished after about how many years were you that?

Just under six six?

All right, you step down and say now I'm going to go back and make money at Goldman Sachs.

So what did you want to do? Didn't I didn't step down. I was asked to.

I was approached by the UK government to become governor of the Bank of England.

And is like an illegal poaching.

I mean they're going to another country to take the central banker from another country.

Did you think that was unusual?

Well, it was, it was, It was unusual. It was I mean the unusual times. Technically the head of state, Queen Elizabeth is the same, so it's inter company transfer.

Okay. So yeah, all right.

So when you're the head of the Central Bank of Canada, by the way, you get your signature on the currency. Yes, wow, so that it's pretty nice when your hand somebody a dollar bill, you say to people with my signature, you ever tell them that, well, you don't break that rag?

Okay? All right.

So you get offered to go to be the head of the Central Bank of England and you said yes right away?

And I didn't. Actually I.

Turned it down a few times. It was a rolling conversation over the course of twenty two eight.

So you ultimately took the job. I then took the job. Yeah, I eventually took the job for about eight years.

Yeah, just under. And when you're the head of.

The Central Bank of England, does the Queen call you for advice or she ask you anything? To meet the Queen very much.

Or I did have a few audiences, right.

And just and the prime minister, he doesn't appoint you the prime minister or he or she doesn't appoint you.

Uh, you're appointed by the sovereign.

Yeah, and the sovereign report to the Board of Governors. I show, uh, well you I mean you report to the British people. Really through parliament is the way that's really the accountability you're I mean, you can only be removed for incapacity and that is a very Did you enjoy that job, job, job security, the job?

I enjoy that I it was, Yes, I did.

I mean it was you know sometimes in the in the thick of it, it's it doesn't feel enjoyable. But it was incredibly challenged. He was you know, there was a lot going on, which is the reason why an outsider came in.

So yes, I did enjoy it.

Was it more fun to be the head of the Central Bank of Canada or Central Bank of England?

I would say was with The challenges were much greater in the UK. You had an institution that had been totally transformed. You had a financial system that I mean was at the epicenter of the problems and had to be fixed. You had the elements of Brexit what ultimately was Brexit, the Scottish referendum. You had a big management challenge, you know, so it was you enjoyed it.

I enjoyed it.

Yeah, so you would recommend that job anybody that gets offered it, right.

I did recommend it too. I recommended it to a number of people.

Yet, not too long from now, the next meeting of a COP will occur. I guess it's in Abodhabir Dubai, and I assume you'll be there as a special envoy. So the last COP meeting didn't seem to make a lot of progress. What kind of progress you think is going to be made this time where we actually get closer to getting to the target goals?

And you have?

Yeah, well, I think the first thing. Let's just back up for one second. So if we go to the Paris COP seven years ago, the world was headed towards three and a half degrees warming by the end of this century. IA came out last week says on current policies, what actually is happening, We're headed to two point four degrees. So there has been quite a bit of progress, it's not enough. The goal is to be less than two. But just to be clear in terms of the scale of investment in the policies that we're making progress this COP and full credit to the Presidency of the COP the United Emirates and Sultan al Jaber is very focused on commercial solutions for climate change. And so first and foremost and objective to get the major oil countries, producing countries and companies to commit to zero methane near zero methane by twenty thirty, doubling the efficiency of producing and transporting oil and gas.

So you step down for the Central Bank of England and then you often become the special envoy off you and now you're the chairman of Field Asset Management, and now to be the chairman of Bloomberg. Right, what is Brookfield Asset Management?

So Brookfield Asset Management and Brookfield as a whole is one of the world's largest alternative asset managers. The asset management business is the capital light bit. So this is where the twelve hundred plus investment professionals of Brookfield reside. We oversee the investments that have two hundred thousand operating professionals and it's a business that invests effectively in the backbone of the global economy.

So that means renewable power.

One of the largest owners operators at renewable power, over one hundred and sixty gigawatts of renewable power owned, operate and develop. One of the largest real estate investors in the world. One of the pioneers, if not the pioneers, of infrastructure is an asset class. So one hundred and sixty billion under management in infrastructure, and that's everything from energy infrastructure to data infrastructure, big private equity business and a very large private credit business as well.

Now you have many jobs. Currently you're not the head of the central bank in Inlet anymore or Canada, but among other things, you're the special I guess advisor to the UN Envoy Special Envoy UN on climate change.

So right, that's correct, on climate action and finance. Right, So what does that really mean? What are you doing?

You're telling the people in each country they should go more electric or don't burn as much oil, or what it's really about.

So a lot of if there's a common theme to my career, it's working at the intersection of public policy and private markets. So a lot of that in central banking, that's what you're doing. And that's what I'm doing, is this special envoy, And really it's to organize the private financial system to be ready for climate change, not just the physical impacts of climate change, but to be part of the solution, to be able to provide capital, get capital where it's needed to.

Get a mission.

So in this disposition, which I assume is probably an unpaid position very much, so you know, people are looking at you all the time, say you're the special envoy for climate action.

Can you can't fly in a private plane so easily? I guess, right?

Then do you take public transportation or you can you drive your own carve it's an oil and gas car or not?

Well I have I.

Might not surprise if we have an electric car, as you would expect, and most of the time that is charged in Quebec.

I live just on the border with Quebec.

And that's therefore, are you countable power?

Are you conscious?

People always looking at you as a special envoye saying you know he's using too much, he's got too big a carbon footprint, or you don't worry about that?

Well no, people, look, people will make that, particularly if they don't want to confront the tough issues around climate change, the big blocks of what's actually going to make a difference. They'll go to, you know, the anything you're wearing. You know, there's plastic on my watch strap, and therefore there's an element of high carbons in that.

If you have an oil and gas investment that comes to an investment committee and you're the special envoy, you have to recuse yourself or how do you know.

Well, we have a very we have very clear approach at Brookfield. As I say, we're one of the largest renewable energy providers and we are systematically going through our assets to ensure that as much as possible they have business plans that are consistent with the transition towards net zero. And we do that first and foremost. From a fiduciary perspective, we see being low carbon or lowering your carbon footprint to put it that way, as one of the fundamental drivers of value in the market. And I have to say, you know, we're being proven right. We know in real time that the mapping of the temperature increase to the extreme weather events is worse than we thought ten years ago. So actually the goal, even though the goal is getting tougher to get it's becoming more.

To get there. And the third thing we know is the mapping.

You can map specific actions to specific emission reductions and it can become very clear whether you're making a difference on that and what we've seen. I'll make two points if I may, on that. One is we go back five years ago. Clean energy investment, so that's wind, solar, battery storage, and let's say ev charging those types of things. About five hundred billion worldwide dollars spent this year last year, one point two trillion this year one point eight trillion. Okay, that is one and a half one point six times what we're spending on conventional energy investment, and that's starting to move, you know, so you can see in real time what's happening in terms of emission reduction, solution emission reduction, and as well, you know, from a financial we're at Bloomberg, you know, and talking a bit about Brookfield as well.

From a financial perspective.

First off, the numbers are huge in terms of the you know, the action is in the clean not in the conventional. Secondly, the information set around whether or not a company doesn't matter what the industry is could be tech could be motor, whatever services. The information about what your carbon footprint is today and where it's going is exploding, so you can tell.

Who's part of the solution, who's part of the problem, and that is driving value.

Some of the emerging market countries say, well, wait a second, you guys in the United States and Western Europe, you had a century or so to pollute as much as you want it. Now you're asking us, as we're emerging, to give away the right to use some of these same kinds of fuels that you use as it's not fair, They would say, what do you respond to that.

Well, it's not fair.

Unfortunately, the disproportionate impacts of climate change will also fall in those same countries and the people in those countries. You know, Africa, seventeen percent of the world's people three percent of the world's emissions run right, but you know, you know, hundreds of millions of people will be in uninhabitable climate if we don't get.

This on top.

So we've got to all get together and deal with it. First point, and then the second is that now, given the progress that has been made in the economics of wind solar stores particularly, they are becoming the low cost solutions for those countries as well.

You have an electric car. You said you drive electric car, right, So some people say electric cars are not perfect in the sense that they get the minerals you need for some of their batteries. For example, you have to do a lot of mining of things, and that is not great for the environment either. But on the whole you would say electric vehicles are infinitely better than carbon.

Well, here we are in combustion.

At Bloomberg and I can reference BNF research on this, which they actually show depending on where you are where the crossover point is that your electric car net impact on the environment is you know where it's better than the internal combustion engine car.

If you're in.

Place like Canada, where you've got a lot of clean power eighty five percent of our power zero mission in Canada, a little plug for Canadian manufacturing there by the way, and the crossovers about eighteen months. If you're even if you're in China where you have instilled in the installed based a lot of coal, it's well, I'll have to check on I'll do BNF and check the number, but it's around five years, okay, So and that includes the embedded carbon from all those processes.

For somebody whos watching it says, I'd like to be like Mark Carney successful, but almost everything is touched to say, maybe not hockey perfectly, but pretty good.

What was it your hard work?

It's just being good jeans, you know, just smarter than everybody else. So what is it luck? What do you think it is that enable you to do all these things? And you're still a very young man by my standard, you're fifty eight years old. That's a teenager to me. How so what do you think made this possible?

Well, look, luck is a huge element of it, without question. You make your own luck to some extent if you're doing things that you like and you care about, so you're around opportunities. You know, I wouldn't have been Governor of the Bank of England if I hadn't wanted to be in public policy and was the governor of Bank of Canada, for example.

But I, at least in.

My experience, maybe with my genes or whatever, I think you can't get away.

From hard work.

Thanks for listening to hear more of my interviews. You can subscribe and download my podcast on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you listen.

The David Rubenstein Show

What makes a great leader? How can leadership be developed into a force for true achievement? The Da 
Social links
Follow podcast
Recent clips
Browse 118 clip(s)