The Arrival of the Thunder

Published Jan 3, 2024, 11:22 PM

Chris Mannix and Mark Medina break down the early season success of the Oklahoma City Thunder after their thrilling win over the Boston Celtics and if they actually need to make one trade that can out them in championship contention

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Here's your host, Chris. This is the Crossover NBA Podcast. I'm Chris Mannix filling in for Rohan not Gurneath. This week is the great Mark Medina, longtime NBA writer now working with Sports Kita The Messenger. You can hear him on Fox Sports Radio. Mark, I'm glad you could join me this week because we are both on the West Coast and towards the West Coast. Not on the West Coast, but towards the West Coast. You had the best game in the NBA last night of the week, of the last few months, maybe up the entire season. Oklahoma City Boston. Oklahoma City edges of the Celtics in just an absolute thriller. It was a great game throughout the first half. Oklahoma City built an eighteen point lead, the Celtics stormed back. Chet Holmgren makes big shots, Derek White makes big shots. Great coaching on both sides. I thought during that game, you know, I had a lot of people on my Twitter feed complaining like, why wasn't this nationally televised? Why wasn't this at least on NBA TV. I don't really have the answer to why it wasn't on NBA TV. I think that's a legitimate gripe that some people have. Philadelphia Chicago maybe didn't need to have that on NBA TV on Tuesday Night, But for the people that had League Pass or the people that just bought one game on League Pass, I don't know. I can't remember a better regular season game than that. Mark.

Yeah, and Chris, maybe this gives the NBA mulligan because they'll be prepared for this matchup in June, right, I mean, that's a very possibility here. I thought what was fascinating with that game is I think Chris tops porzingis really summed up the Thunder pretty well and saying like this wasn't a flute game. This is really in line with what the Thunder has shown this season, where they're beating elite teams. They just beat Boston, they beat Minnesota, they beat the Denver Nuggets. So it's not like this is the young, cute team on the up and coming. No, they are one of the best teams in the Western Conference. And while it is still a challenge in January to see Okay how do they sort out against Minnesota? You presume that some of the more experienced teams behind them will sort things out. They are a legitimate team, starts with Shay, gilligis Alexander obviously Chet Holmgren and you know, look, I wouldn't be surprised that they know both have legitimate shots Shay with MVP and Chet Holmgren for Rookie of the Year.

So let's talk about how how legitimate this team is as currently constituted, because right now they are percentage points away from having the best record in the NBA. They are constantly answering people's questions. Like early in the season when they built a big record, it was they haven't played anybody, you know, the last week, as you mentioned, they beat Denver, they beat Minnesota, they beat Boston. Now it's well, they haven't played on the road yet. Okay, Well when they do that, what are we going to be saying after that? So there's no question this is like a top four Western Conference contending team. How much better is this team? Like, you know, it's easy to get trapped in the moment, to be a prisoner of the moment, and that team that we saw last night that everyone was talking about on social media. That team looked like it had everything. Shay is a legitimate number one option. He's averaging well over thirty points per game right now at thirty six against the Celtics. You know, he's playmaking, he's rebounding, he's passing. He's a guy you can give the ball to and expect him to get a bucket. Late in the game, Chet Holmgren, as I mentioned, made some huge shots. Like I mean, those two threes that Chet made in the fourth quarter were monster shots that you do not expect from a rookie, even a second year rookie. You know, the guy like Jalen Williams, the plays he made at the start of the fourth quarter when Shay was sitting on the bench, Lou Dort, some of the defensive plays that he made there, Josh Giddy making shots for this team. Boston did that thing that they like to do, which is put Porzingis on the guy they deemed to be the worst shooter out there. They did against the Lakers when they put him on Rujashima. They did it here against Josh Giddy. Josh Getty made him pay in this game. Like, is this team like would you put them on the same tier that you'd put Denver? Presumably maybe you put the Clippers now on that tier because they're starting to get everybody back and look like the team we expected him to look.

Like.

What tier in the Western Conference do you put the Yoklahoma City Thunder on.

Yeah, it's a tough question, Chris. I guess can I put like one a tier as opposed to one? I mean no, no, no.

They're two tiers. They're one tier and it's two tier eight.

I would put them one tier then, I mean, barring the obvious, you know, prerequisites of health and everything else, I don't think the whole idea of oh they're inexperience, they're very young, is going to overwhelm them from like a tactical standpoint. The only I would say, the most like glaring red flag that could catch up to them is it a rebounding like there are the worst teams in the league. With that, I think twenty eighth. But as far as like everything else, like Shay is more than just a score, He's a complete player. Chet Holmgren showed that he's benefited from setting out his technical first season with you know, observing all the things from the bench. The physicality part. He makes up for that because he's very skilled elsewhere. He absorbs the contact. He can go head to head with big guys and they you know, they they have I think, you know, a lot of good innovative ways to go small. So this idea that, oh, they don't have enough size to go against other guys, I think that's overstated. But I think the rebounding part is a real concern. Look, maybe Sam Presty eventually unloads as million PICKSI has in some sort of deal before the trade deadline, who knows. But I think other than that, really the only part that leaves me concerned is that rebounding because at some point that's gonna play a factor in the playoffs because the game slows down, more guys missshots. You need to control that part of the game.

I think that's fair. There's a connectivity to this team and that has come with you know, for for everyone besides Chet, it's basically at least three years of playing together, if not more. They've been through some of the tougher moments that young teams go through. Last year was kind of their year of you know, experiencing the ups and downs, they surged at the end that got into that play in mix. That was kind of their bumpy year. Like this year, things have gone smoothly. I think in part because they've made all the mistakes that they're going to make, the amateur mistakes I guess for lack of a better phrase, that they're going to make, and they're equipped to play against the better teams in the NBA. I mean, they they legitimately go ten deep, like ten guys you can rely on, Like genuinely, Mark Dagnel can look down the bench and see ten guys that he could play. That's not nothing, especially when you get to the postseason. I agree with you on the rebounding, you know, especially like when you some of their guys, they're bigger guys like Chet for example, and Jalen Williams and some others. They're on the young side obviously, and you're going to go up against teams that have older, more experienced players that have some man strength to them. Like there are a couple of situations, and I know it's very anecdotal, but at least one situation I remember seeing in the second half where Jason Tatum I think missed a shot top of the key and the ball bounce really high. And like the Celtics, who have a lot of older guys, porzingis alhor for Jalen Brown. Like they went up for that loose ball, there was no chance they weren't get it because they're bigger, stronger, older, like more physical. You know, that's just a component that Oklahoma City is missing right now now. I don't know if I go out though and acquire it, because I kind of like when Chet's playing the five alongside Jalen Wimbs. I think it's what makes them the kind of team that they are, makes them as effective at they are they are. They're still like the best three point shooting team percentage wise in the NBA. That's a big reason why because everybody one through five can can shoot the three pretty well. So I don't know if I add I just go on and try to add that piece of the mix. But I agree with you the physicality, the rebounding. That could be a problem against say a team like Denver in the postseason, maybe not so much against the Suns. Nurkic is there, but you know whatever, you know, you're not gonna be terrified off use of Nurkic, the Clippers. Zubac is there, but they play smallish too as well, like that, that's not They're not a super sized team either. I think the Nuggets are kind of the team you'd be most concerned with, you know, whether it's you know, Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Like, they've got some guys that could beat you up a little bit of the inside. Michael Porter Junior is a tall small forward as well, so that's that's one of their problems. And then look, then there's the obvious kind of a cliche where it's like, you know, most teams that don't have playoff experience don't succeed in their first run through the postseason. I know they were part of that play in mix last year, but if they're like the three seed in this year's playoffs, it's a stretch to assume they're gonna make it all the way to the NBA Finals in their first go round in that type of situation. But they've got a lot of guys. Man, I'm watching Caseon Wallace out there, and Wallace is like, exactly what this team needs him to be. A corner, three point shooter, defense, multiple positions like this, like they just keep hitting and hitting and hitting on these draft picks. And you know, from a talent perspective, you have a hard time seeing them being out talented my teams in the playoffs.

Yeah, you hit it on it really well. And you know, I was looking up. I think the athletic had these numbers that because of all these positive things that you outlined, like this is the Thunder's best starts in the regular season since twenty fifteen sixteen. You know, when they had guys like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and that deep team on the roster to make a run and you know, almost Scott's the Western Conference Finals if it wasn't for or the NBA Finals, it wasn't for squandering that three to one serious lead against the Golden State Warriors. And I think the thing that we have to keep in mind, like, yeah, experience might help, but I think when I'm looking specimilar with the Western Conference, that might really only play into the Denver Nuggets advantage because not only they're the NBA champions, they got Nicole Jokic, but they have that Cotton new They don't have as many health concerns. But when you look at the rest of the Western Conference teams that are supposedly better against the Thunder on paper, they just have so many health question marks that you don't know how they're gonna hit other than knowing that there's it's gonna be an issue at some point, some way when you're looking at teams like Phoenix, like the Clippers, like the Lakers, all those proverbial dark horses, you know, Dallas included. So yeah, I think the Thunder are the real deal, and I wouldn't fault you right now, Chris Max, if you do two things. One, if you book your flight for OKC in June and you start, you know, making some recommendations for Boston for the Oklahoma City Thunder media visiting, and also maybe change change your power rankings, right, can you put them up at number one?

I think you know, people were scoffing at me saying that Oklahoma City does not deserve to be number one? Okay, who does? At this point, Boston was number one going into Tuesday night. Oklahoma City just beat them. So the Thunder, right, if I was redoing them today, I would Putklahoma City a top those power I think the big question for Oklahoma as you kind of let's just compare them to the team we saw with you know, the Durant type team, right, So is Shay a number one? Shay's kind of proving he is a number one, right, Like Shaye's an MVP candidate, So Shae is is a number one right now? I think Chet is going to be or Chet either is or is going to be a number two. Chet like that he has got ice water in his veins. I keep going back to those two threes, like those were such great shots and such clutch shots and important shots in that moment, Like that showed me a lot. I saw Perzingis after the game, like made some comments like he was like I didn't expect to be this good this soon. So like Chet is the real deal at number two. Then it's like the third guy, Like is Jalen Williams the third guy on a championship team? His numbers say yes, like eighteen points a game, thirty two minutes, averaging about forces, four rebounds, one steal, Like he's a good player? Is he like that hardened on this Thunder team? So I think that's the big question they're gonna have to answer both this year and going forward. The other question that everyone was asking last night because it's the reflexive thing to ask, right, It's like knee jerk, who do they trade for? You brought it up. All the draft picks they've got, They've got like everybody's draft pick for the next three years. They own the next three drafts. It's great to have those picks. It's great to fantasize about certain players. But as we sit here, Mark and I've thought about this for like twenty four hours, I don't know who is the guy they would go out and use those picks and some of those players that they have to include to get X player that would make them a better team, right, Like who out there is available? Because remember, you're not going to get Pascal Siakam unless you've got Pascal Siakam's agent telling you he is one hundred percent going to re sign with that team next year. You're not going to go and get Pascal Siakam. Oh g Anobi would have looked good on that team, that's for sure, but you know that's either here nor there. I have a hard time finding the deal that makes sense for the Oklahoma City done or I also find myself thinking, like Oklahoma City, I think has to go through at least one postseason with this team to see what it's got like, to see if this group can do it. Like if they get beaten the first round and they get exposed in a certain area. Maybe it's rebounding, maybe it's something else. Yeah, you go do something. You go get like not Steven Adams, but a Steven Adams type to play the middle for you. But maybe they get hot and go on a run, get all the way to the conference finals, push it to like a game six. Then maybe say, you know what, we don't do anything with this group. We're not like financially hamstrung until twenty twenty six. We've got some wiggle room with this team. So I don't know. Maybe I'm sure you've thought about it too, Like is there a guy out there or a trade out there that makes sense for Oklahoma City that would make them a better team short and long term that they could go out and pull off.

Now, I can't think of any other than what you mentioned about Pascal Siakam. I mean, obviously we keep our eyes on philosophically, what the Chicago Bulls are going to do with zach Lavine and Tomortoism.

They're not going to get Zach. But neither one of those guys make any sense for.

Well, it's going to say that the Thunder don't need those players, so it doesn't make any sense. So they're in this proverbial rock in the hard place where they have a lot of draft picks that they can theoretically willingly give up, but they don't want to give up any of their players. But I think the other thing is, as we've seen Sam Presty show these last few years, like he has no problem hoarding draft picks. So to your point, it might be the better play of lean into what's working now and if you have to course correct, like save those war Chester draft picks for the offseason or next season when they have more clarity, okay, like we need this piece to get us over the hump. And you know, as we mentioned, obviously their glaring weakness is on the rebounding end, but there might be more clarity on okay that player is available at that point in time next season, as opposed to leading to the trade deadline. Because as we're mentioning, like the Bulls players or possible players, they don't fit that criteria right now.

I mean, Alex Caruso might like he makes some sense versatile two way player. That's the thing too. When I went out to Oklahoma City last year to do a profile on Shake Gilders Alexander, and when I'm out there, I'm talking to Thunder officials and coaches about kind of how they're trying to build that team out. And that's when the team was good but not great. Chet wasn't playing. But one of the things that was reiterated to me was that there was a specific type of player that they were looking for at virtually every position. They wanted a guy that could pass, ball, handle, shoot, just be like a multi tool player. They didn't want any one dimensional guys that route there Now a lot of teams build teams like that. I think Boston has done the best job of it over the last you know, five or six years, because they're as versatile as any team in the league, and you know, really have been, you know, dating back to when Al Horford first signed there. But that's how Oklahoma City wants to build out its team, so they're not They're unlikely to go and get kind of some plotting big man that you can defensively game plan against, just to upgrade their rebounding. They're not gonna get guys that can't shoot the three. They're not going to get a guy like le Zach Lavine, who, in addition to being a little bit worrisome with his health long term, especially with that knee. Uh, you know, not a playmaker, kind of a volume score, can shoot the three a little bit. But you know, he's not their type of guy. I don't think Demarty Rose is their type of guy either. So it's just it's just really tough to find, you know, those fits, you know, for this team. That's why I'm with you. I think they they play this season out, they see what they can do, they get beat in the first round. Hey, we'll see what happens, you know, in the off season with this group. But maybe they don't have to do anything. Maybe they can go in to next year. Say you know what, Chet Holmgren is a year older, Josh Giddy is a year older, Lou Dort is a year older. All these guys get one more year. The Jalen Williams is are a year older. You get one more year of experience. You're gonna be better naturally that way. Then we'll see, you know, maybe somebody emerges at the trade deadline makes sense next year. So I think it Oko Cites needed my advice on this because they are like the Icemen of basketball, Like they are methodical with what they do, but like that's clearly the best course of action. One last thing on on Shay. He's in everybody's top five for MVP. What does he have to do to land at the top of your hypothetical ballot, because look, I understand people right now voting for Joel Embiid. Sixers are really good and Mbid is having a monster season, a better season than he had last year when he won the MVP award. Jokic is still Jokic, Giannis is still Yannis. But look, I'm watching Shaye play, and if he's averaging over thirty points per game in that six seven assists range, five to six rebound range, shooting high percentage from the floor, shooting high percentage from three, getting to the free throw line a bunch. And if Oklahoma City Mark is in that one or two spot at the end of the year, which I think is really possible because I think this Oklahoma City team, nothing else, is going to be a great regular season team because they are deep, they have been healthy, and I mean knock on wood, but I think they're the type of team looks like it could be healthy. I think they could be a great regular season team. If they're one or two, and Shay is putting up these kind of numbers, gonna be hard not to vote for him. There's gonna have to be some outstanding performances from guys on outstanding teams to keep him off the top of some ballots.

Yeah. I mean, look, I'm sure you already got the young Corey a few weeks ago from our front tim bontevs.

Yes, and I lie to him at all costs. Every time I think I voted for Sam Hauser in my last ballot.

Well I took it somewhat more serious. I had Shay at number four right now. But it wasn't about oh, he's lacking this, this and this. It was more about, well, I really love how Joel Embiid's playing this season. Same thing with Jokic, same thing with Yannis. But no doubt the more that this sustains as far as their record, the more that could ship away. Now it's just hard of Okay, what's gonna what it's going to take to replace those guys, because that's really what the vote's been about. Of Joel, you know, maintain his play, you know, adjusting just fine without hard End, if not better. Jokic still doing his thing with or without Jamal Murray. I think Giannis, you know, embracing his role and fitting in at least offensively with the dynamic with Damian Lillard. But look, like we all know how voters calculate things and win loss records certainly are one of many variables with that. But I think to the question you said, like, I don't think Shay has to fundamentally change anything. He's already shown he's that legitimate score, he's a complete player, and he's about you know, winning basketball. And those are our three pretty good categories that are already play in the next four MVP votes.

Let me tell you Shay's pathway in my mind to MVP. I think he needs Jannis and Lillard to kind of split their own team vote so to speak to people say, well, maybe it's more a little than is Yiannis. I'm gonna drop him a little bit further down on my ballot. Probably needs MB to get hurt. If we're being honest, like Embid has a history. You know, he's been healthy for the most part this year, did have some nagging injuries on this recent road trip. But I think he needs mb to miss some games, maybe Philadelphia, to slip in the standings a little bit, and then he needs to as a team leap frog Denver in the standings in the Western Conference. If Oklahoma City finishes number one over Denver, over Minnesota, you know, or any of the teams that are in that conference, that's his pathway to me mark, like if they finish above Denver in the standings, and right now they are, but if they finish above Denver in the Western Conference standings, I think that will give some voter's license to say, well, he's putting up great numbers on his team, Joki is putting great numbers up on his team. This guy's team is better. Let's let's give it him and go that way. That that, to me is at least the pathway for for Shay to win MVP. But I think it's possible. I think it's very possible. I mean watching him play last night, like this guy is ice cold in the fourth quarter, this guy is tremendous, like off the dribble, like like he's he's not a fast guy per se, but keeping him off his spot is almost impossible. Like Boston did a good job when they put Tatum on him in that fourth quarter, gave a little size. That's probably what teams are gonna do, you know, down the stretch of games. But you know, the way you know this guy can can get to his spot is remarkable, Like he's he's a special, special talent.

Yeah, And to your point, I know Tatum held him to fewer free throws and normal, but I think half the battle is just the willingness and the tactical know how to get to the basket and draw contact and gets the foul line. And not every guard has that mentality Shay does and that's partly what makes him so dangerous because he's such a great score elsewhere on the court as well.

Yeah, yeah, it gonna be fun MVP race, that's for sure, with all these guys that are playing at a really high level. Mark good stuff man. Check out Mark stuff at the Messenger, Rita met sports Keita listened to him on Fox Sports Radio as well. Mark, always appreciate your time and joining the podcast.

Chris right back at you appreciate you and looking forward to your adjusted power ranking next week.

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