More corporate debt will plunge into distress when the US economy tanks, Marty Fridson, chief executive officer of Fridson Vision High Yield Strategy. “I have high confidence that we will get back to 1,000 basis points on the high-yield index as a whole at the worst point of the next recession,” the veteran credit strategist tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Spencer Cutter in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Corporate bonds trading at 1,000 basis points over Treasuries are usually seen by markets as being in distress, with a high likelihood of default. Fridson and Cutter also discuss energy sector bond opportunities, corporate bond default rates, ratings trends, the Federal Reserve put and liability management.

More corporate debt will plunge into distress when the US economy tanks, Marty Fridson, chief executive officer of Fridson Vision High Yield Strategy. &ldquo;I have high confidence that we will get back to 1,000 basis points on the high-yield index as a whole at the worst point of the next recession,&rdquo; the veteran credit strategist tells Bloomberg News&rsquo; James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence&rsquo;s Spencer Cutter in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Corporate bonds trading at 1,000 basis points over Treasuries are usually seen by markets as being in distress, with a high likelihood of default. Fridson and Cutter also discuss energy sector bond opportunities, corporate bond default rates, ratings trends, the Federal Reserve put and liability management.

The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.

The Credit Edge reviews the top credit news of the week and looks at the week ahead, with in-depth research of the most important corporate sectors, trends and themes. Analysis of specific corporate bonds and credit default swaps is backed by Bloomberg Intelligence's robust data sets and indexes.

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Fridson Sees High Yield Going Distressed in Recession

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KKR is looking to Europe and Japan for yield as US debt spreads grind tighter. “Investors are very focused on relative value in a market where there’s not a lot,” Tal Reback, global investment strategist for the firm’s credit and markets business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “In general, investors are much more intrigued about how to diversify geographically,” she adds. They also discuss what KKR thinks could be a $1 trillion European asset-backed debt opportunity, private credit default risk, valuations of direct loans, sector bets and business development companies.

KKR is looking to Europe and Japan for yield as US debt spreads grind tighter. &ldquo;Investors are very focused on relative value in a market where there&rsquo;s not a lot,&rdquo; Tal Reback, global investment strategist for the firm&rsquo;s credit and markets business, tells Bloomberg News&rsquo; James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence&rsquo;s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. &ldquo;In general, investors are much more intrigued about how to diversify geographically,&rdquo; she adds. They also discuss what KKR thinks could be a $1 trillion European asset-backed debt opportunity, private credit default risk, valuations of direct loans, sector bets and business development companies.

 KKR Is Hunting for Yield in European and Japanese Credit Markets

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The technology-funding frenzy could become a bust for credit markets if AI falls short of lofty expectations, according to Barclays. “If we get to a point where we see a lot of this issuance coming to the market — and then there’s some changes, where maybe certain things are a little bit less viable or a little bit less attractive — that leads to some downside risks,” Brad Rogoff, the firm’s global head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Campellone in the latest Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss “late-cycle” behavior, private-debt risk, asset-based finance and portfolio trades, as well as Barclays’ 2026 forecasts for credit spreads, defaults and global issuance.

The technology-funding frenzy could become a bust for credit markets if AI falls short of lofty expectations, according to Barclays. &ldquo;If we get to a point where we see a lot of this issuance coming to the market &mdash; and then there&rsquo;s some changes, where maybe certain things are a little bit less viable or a little bit less attractive &mdash; that leads to some downside risks,&rdquo; Brad Rogoff, the firm&rsquo;s global head of research, tells Bloomberg News&rsquo; James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence&rsquo;s Mike Campellone in the latest Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss &ldquo;late-cycle&rdquo; behavior, private-debt risk, asset-based finance and portfolio trades, as well as Barclays&rsquo; 2026 forecasts for credit spreads, defaults and global issuance.

Barclays’ Rogoff Sees Risk of AI Bust as Debt Issuance Ramps Up

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/43627ebc-ca13-4b37-8ae6-b3a90110b8e7/transcript

Global investors are looking more at European private credit as US returns get squeezed, according to London-based hedge fund Arini. “They want to focus on a place where they think there’s rule of law, where they think there’s opportunity set — and that’s really been Europe,” Mathew Cestar, the firm’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephane Kovatchev in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Europe pays about 50 basis points more on private loans than the US to compensate for its relative complexity, says Cestar, who leads the Arini’s direct lending business. The firm generates additional spread by focusing on middle-market, non-sponsor deals across the continent. Cestar also discusses credit agreements, defaults, the potential for investment in defense and where by country and sector he sees the best opportunity.

Global investors are looking more at European private credit as US returns get squeezed, according to London-based hedge fund Arini. &ldquo;They want to focus on a place where they think there&rsquo;s rule of law, where they think there&rsquo;s opportunity set &mdash; and that&rsquo;s really been Europe,&rdquo; Mathew Cestar, the firm&rsquo;s president, tells Bloomberg News&rsquo; James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence&rsquo;s Stephane Kovatchev in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Europe pays about 50 basis points more on private loans than the US to compensate for its relative complexity, says Cestar, who leads the Arini&rsquo;s direct lending business. The firm generates additional spread by focusing on middle-market, non-sponsor deals across the continent. Cestar also discusses credit agreements, defaults, the potential for investment in defense and where by country and sector he sees the best opportunity.

Arini Says European Private Credit Has the Edge Over US Market 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/71f4a697-b226-4979-974d-b3a10112f3d1/transcript

Fridson Sees High Yield Going Distressed in Recession

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