The Country Full Show: Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Published Aug 13, 2024, 2:52 AM

Jamie Mackay talks to Jamie Strang, Sir David Carter, Todd McClay, Jane Smith, and Cameron Bagrie.

Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in John Deare construction equipment.

Get a New Zealand. Good afternoon, New Zealand. This is the Country. It's brought to you by Brandt. Six months in a Leaky Boat. We've got a guest in the studio who didn't quite spend six months in a leaky boat. Spent a few hours recently when he rowed across across cook Straight to raise money for Farmstrong Why a Wrapper Farmer. Jamie Strang, longtime judge of the Balanced Farm Environment Awards. Also on the show today, Sir David Carter at the christ Church Show is back or talk about that? And is there bad blood between him and four I'm a board chair and former chair of n Z rugby Stuart Mitchell. I'll ask him that one We're going to go live to Delhi at about twelve thirty our time to catch up with our Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd mcclay's doing the hard yards over there for us. Jane Smith, north Otago Farmer Award winning environmentalist and today today only well not today only. She's the famous aunt of an Olympian, Cameron Bagri. Independent economists casting an eye over tomorrow's ocr announcement from the Reserve Bank, plus whether it's realistic or just far too ambitious for the government to double export earnings in the next decade. Talking about Olympians, I think Cameron might have one on the way as well. His daughter is in the New Zealand Junior Rowing squad. Well, this guy, our next guest, would not make the New Zealand Junior Rowing squad. Jamie Strang, get a wee bit closer to that microphone. Great to have you in the studio. You're down here in Dunedin. You're a a apper farmer. I know that because you've got a six hole golf course on your farm and recently you rode across Cook Straight to raise money for farm Strong. You're incredibly fit for a seventy six year old man. Get away bit closer to that mic You're scared of me because I looked. I checked up Donald Trump's seventy eight in instance seventy nine Biden's eighty one. You imagine Joe Biden rowing across Cook Straight. Get a Jamie, get a Jamie. No, I can't imagine that at this point either. No, Well, look have you always been super fit?

I'm not super fit, but I try to keep fit because, as I said to you once before, as we get older, we get to seventy plus, we've had that things tart to go wrong with the body and we need to be in good shape to get there. So that's why I do it.

Well, I'm a good exerciser, but I drink too much beer. But I've got a gym at home, and I've got a treadmill. I've got a weights machine which I never use. I hate weights. And i've got a bike which I use all the time. And i've got a rower which I use less frequently because it's harder. It's harder than the treadmill, all the bike. It's a great exercise.

Ye people told me to get on the rowing machine, and that was the way I was going to get there, just row hard out on a rowing machine. But that was boring. And so on the water, actually living it on the water is good. But I also found out that being on a flat water on the lake is totally different to being on cook straight because there's a lot rougher out there.

Well, you got to pick your day obviously, to row across cook Straight. You did, and you got pretty much a perfect day.

Well it looked like it was perfect in the photos. It wasn't perfect, but it was as good as you're going to get. And at the end of the day the tides went against us, but we hadn't worried about the tides. As you say, a calm day. No wind was a secret. No wind got me there.

Yeah. Well, the week before you went as across cook Straight, I flew across it to go to the Primary Industry in New Zealand Summit and Awards in Wellington and they shut the fairies off. So this is only like a week beforehand. You know, they had five meter swells and all that sort of stuff.

Yea, well that was the deal. The swells were dying down, as they apparently do after you had a big southerly they were going through and when we flew over it yesterday it wasn't looking very pleasant either. But we've come down here to need beautiful sunny day. Been out to Port Chamers, have a coffee and breakfast. What a great place you live in.

Oh Look, honestly, as I say, Dunedin's the best kept secret in New Zealand. If the climate was better, because I know he's trying to sugarcat. It hasn't got the greatest climate. But if the climate was better, we'd have half a million people wanting to live here. It's a beautiful harbor city.

Well, Ricky, my wife and I we were either going to go to a news or come to then eaton. We've come to the Neaton and look at it perfect.

What do you what are you going to do? Exercise? Why is he going to grow up and down the harbor here?

No, I'm not. I don't. I'd actually, can you get on any more rough order again? For a while? I look at cook straight now and I think I don't want to do that again. I didn't think I feel that way, but I just don't want to do it again.

Are you still actively farming or are you a hobby farmer? Now?

Yeah, you probably call me a hobby farmer. I judge the grass growth that's going on in our ear by how much how many times we've got to mow the golf course, and it's quite a lot at the moment, more more grass growing than we thought.

Still just the six holes.

Well, no, we've gone to eight holes, but we shorten them up to par three, so some people don't lose golf calls. Now it's simpler.

Yeah. I've got a couple of titlest propy ones that are sitting in your paddock somewhere. No doubt you want to pick them up.

Yeah, Well someone have found him somewhere.

Jamie Straying, great to have your sitting in today. Well you've refused flat out to read the sports news, right, absolutely, that's a tradition here on the show, guests read the sports news. But you're not doing it.

But Rowan Cook straders breaking traditions to Jamie, and I'm going to do that here.

I reckon you've earned the right. We might talk more about the Balanced Farm Environment Awards. But up next another man who's in his seventies and another man who I know is very, very fit because he used to run marathons. Sir David Carter, the former Minister of Agriculture and of course the former Speaker of the House under the John keyguv. He's got a new job. He's tasked with getting the country's largest show, that's the Canterbury A and P Show back and running. After the November event was initially canceled by the now former board. So David Carter up next, Todd McClay live from Deli. Is it Deli or New Deli? It used to be New Delhi. I think it's just normal old Delli now, isn't it. Jamie, You know I'll go with you, James, I'll do my homework on that one. Jane Smith out of North Otago. I know you're a big fan of what Jane has to say. She's the aunt, well not of a rower, but of a kayaker. Olivia Brett is Jane's niece.

When Warrick and I went visiting farms as part of the FAMI Environment Awards on farm judging, Jane was the first one we went to. And Jane was wonderful.

Yep, she is wonderful. And Cameron Bagrey, oh c our announcement tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath for a drop, but there is to be one, you would think, or maybe two before the end of the year. We'll get an expert's opinion on that. You're with the country. It's brought to you by brand.

Understanding on a corner and wins honor.

It's such a blind sight to see in the girl my Lord.

In a plad bed board going down at tager look at me.

Great to catch up with old correspondents here on the country. Sir David. I was almost going to call you, Sir David Parker. That would be a bit of a Fraudyan slip David. Let's try Sir David Carter, former Minister of Agriculture, former Speaker of the House, and you're in the news again. You're going to resurrect the christ Church Show. Good afternoon. Great to have you back on the country.

And it's a great pleasure to be back on the country. I'm going to certainly do my part to resurrect the show, but it's going to be a team effort. This is an iconic event. Canterbury and christ Church are well known for the show week and I keep arguing, you have not got a show week and this we've got the Christian Show.

Why has it fallen from grace?

I think there's been some decisions made in the past that have lost the association a lot of money. It was reported at the AGM by the finance director yesterday that it's in a precarious position. We've now got to get out there amongst our community. We've got to get support from sponsors, from exhibitors, from the trade site people. If they want the show to survive. I've got to come on board in a big way to get this show twenty four underway in ninety three days.

Now I look at some of the really successful AMP shows around the country and I think of Uppercluther, you know, the Wanaka show. I think of a really good example is the Poverty Bay or Gisbone amp show. They do a great job. They get half the population of the region through the gates. Mind you and Christ the biggest of them all. You get one hundred thousand people over the three days. How come you can't make a profit out of that.

That's the question that we're going to be continuing to ask. I think we can make a profit by running an efficient three day show. We do get in excess of one hundred thousand people through the gate and I now go to many of the shows in the Canterbury region, ours Man Mayfield, it's an cheviot show. They all run more or less at a profit or a slight break. Even if they can do it, we can do it.

You've been particularly harsh on former chairperson Stuart Mitchell, and of course Stuart was the former chair of New Zealand Rugby and he's known for being reasonably opinionated, I guess, but he's not a bad bloke, Stuart. There's the bad blood between you two.

No, there isn't from my point of view. But the position that we've been handed the association, it's precarious financial position. The buck must stop somewhere, and I would argue that it stops with the board and they need to accept responsibility for what has happened in the past. We now have a new board. It's absolutely enthusiastically embracing the challenge. We need to put the pass behind us. We need to move forward with positivity.

So who's going to run it? The board or the event company.

Both we're going to work together. The event company are professional organizers of events. They run shows like a Luminate. They've just done that and Nelson with a record turnout for that event. So they'll help us with the event part of the show. But we need the animals and exhibitors there as well, and that will be the responsibility of Cannoby Amp. It'll be a very much a joint venture and already we've been talking to event for the last month. We've got a very good professional relationship with their company.

Now, as you've mentioned, and I heard you earlier this morning on sedb's Breakfast with Mike Hosking pleaing for people to support the show. I mean, it is an iconic event. You can't have show and Cup week without a show. But it's really about I guess the local community and businesses getting in behind sponsoring supporting this event.

That's exactly right, and people have been My friend's been going red hot this morning since that interview with Mike Hosking. People are saying they're going to step up and help. I don't want lip service, I want real support, and as I start a sponsorship drive around the businesses off christ Church over the next week or two, we actually need them to front up if they want this event to survive.

I thought you would be retired, have your feet up, do a bit of casual running. I know you used to be a keen marathon runner, go fishing, play a bit of golf. Do you need this at your time of life?

David So, David, I'm actively farming every day and thoroughly enjoying it. I'm very very lucky with my age to be able to leave Parliament after twenty six years and get back into But I'm also passionate about New Zealand agriculture. I'm passionate about the Canterbury Amp Association, for which I've been an annual member probably for fifty years. I've exhibited there for many years as a Cementel breeder. This show must survive and if I can play it other and that survival, I'm prepared to step up.

Former Minister of Agriculture or Primary Industries in the John Key government two thousand and eight to twenty thirteen until you took the Speaker's role on how do you reckon the current minister's going Todd McLay.

I think he's going very very well. He's very focused on trade and that's important to us. We need trade opportunities with countries like India. I think the Hot and many associates that have appointed by the current Prime Minister. I think agricultures in better shape with this government that has spent for a long long time.

Well, they're certainly supportive of it. I will give credit where credit's due. Sir David Carter, great to catch up again, don't be a stranger, and I might have to come up and broad cast on People's Day. What's that the Friday?

Is it? That'll be Friday the fifteenth, and we'd be absolutely honored to have Jamie McKay of the Country Show.

All right, as long as you be and Andy Thompson, I'll turn up there you go, and you're going to say to me, who's Andy Thompson? Never mind, it's a bit of an in joke. He won't like it at all. Hey, listen, I'll see you later. Thanks for your time.

Plea'sure. Jamie. Nice to catch up well.

As he was on the HOSK earlier this morning, got him on the show today for a bit of a longer form interview and as Glen would say, there was a pause of inner turmoil there when I mentioned my good friend Andy Thompson, who's a pest. I don't think he needs to stop laughing, Michelle, I don't think he needs to be at the Canterbury A and P Show. He's not really He's a want to be contabrin but he's not a real one. Right. We asked him about what's what he thought of the current Minister of agriculture and trade and what sort of job he was to. It's like five to or six minutes to six am and Dally at the moment and I said I'd ring him at six. So what I might have to do is have a quick chat to Jane Smith first and then we're going to try and get our trade minister over in India. Cameron Bagriy on tomorrow's o CR announcement, also before the end of the hour. Music today by Jamie Strang, seventy six year old farmer who rode across cook straight. So what great taste in music in your sween is gone? See down up. Her name is Jane Smith. She's a North Otago farmer and as I always say when introing her, a former winner of the Balance Farm Environment Awards. She's taking time off the farm to yarn to us today. And if that's not enough, Jane, you're also the auntie of Olivia Brett who won the gold medal in the K four led by the wonderful Dame Lisa Carrington. You must be so proud.

Good afternoon, Jamie. Years last Thursday night was a pivotal night for us all as a family and very exciting and great for obviously the kayak kayaking bought has such as well, you know, and Olivia is reasonably new to kayaking. At the age of eleven, she was an international gymnast, actually representing New Zealand and gymnastics, and she left this due to injury and gymnastics loss was kayaking's game. So her short space of time, I think she's gone to three Junior World Champs, two Senior World Champs, and of course last year that same K four team won the World champion gold in Germany, so it's been a really will wind trip to that team. And of course they were the first non European woman's K four team to win both the World champs and now the Olympic gold. So it's obviously it's not a not as sort of a scene as an Oceania type of sport, but gosh it should be now, Jamie.

Absolutely hey, And there's an interesting little side story. I understand Olivia after the christ Church earthquakes, because I think she's born and bred there, had to spend some time on the farm with you and Blair.

Yes, she lived with us, her and his sister for quite some time and attended our local fifooks primary school. So it was the first time I think we'd won the swimming sports relay that year because we had the Foose girls here and you know, just talented sporting girls. And so yeah, really really called connection back to our local school. And Olivia bought her gold medal from the World Champs back to school last year, and so she's promised me she'll do the same with her Olympic gold.

Jamie, so proud of it. Now, you want to segue from our competitiveness on the world stage in sport to food producing.

Yes, well, Jennie, it's most concerning. You know, we're so from being incredibly competitive with our athletes, but we're on the cusp of you know, our world famous primary produce. And I put all of our projects into this, including obviously the seafood sector and forestry and processing manufacturing effectively being rendered uncompetitives due to their escalating costs. You know, you look at and I'm not just talking suffocating regulation here, I'm talking you look at out energy costs respectively doubling or saying well right now, but it's particularly in the next few years, and another socialist hangover from the Labor and Greens coalition Jamie. I mean I heard this morning of a rationing of gas from the pen. I mean that sounds more like the Soviet Union in nineteen eighty two, Jamie. And the reality is even James Sure has said we need seventy to eighty percent more electricity, and you know, to meet our unpalatable net zero targets. And you know, the next zero thing, Jammie, five hundred billion dollar costs just to transition, if you like, or something like a sixty four billion dollar potential return. And it was great to see open country cham and Laurie Margrain say, I think it was last week that New Zealand's energy crisis isn't coming. It's actually here because we just we cannot supply it, we cannot afford it. And the reality is that cole and gas are still vital. You know, if you look at the cement and steel production, and you know they were predicted to four below supplied below demands two years ago, and that's exactly what's happened, Jamie.

No one actually thought when we were getting into AI and electric vehicles and all this sort of stuff, that how much more electricity we're going to need in the future. I'm with you, I reckon, we're in danger of the lights going out.

Exactly, Jamien. We've estentially got an electricity market and has short circuited itself, and coal and gas are still key, you know, are still absolutely required ninety percent of dairy processing energy needs and met by that. I think it's ninety two percent of meat processing, something like eighty seven percent of hot house quart culture. And also there's diesel in the mix there as well. So we're just kidding ourselves again that we have any economic alternative because of course these supposed environmental eternators such as wouldn't turbines come at a massive cost environmentally and economically, Jamie. So you know, meanwhile we're wasting time and text toime and money chasing things like meat safe production, and we forget if that was calculated correctly in terms of the emissions leader, and that was rebalanced, we'd save the entire country billions of dollars, Jamie, and a heap of heartache as well.

Well, you weren't watching Paddy Gower on Ice and your good mate doctor Rod Carr because we're facing a four meter rise in sea level. It's a wee bit worrying actually, but I won't go down that truck. I want to final comment from you if I can, on the Otago Regional Council and also the Gore District Council, a couple of councils down our end of the country who are making headlines, perhaps for all the wrong reasons.

Very concerning, Jamie, and as you and I do, call our local regional council and district council, the Otago Regional Communists and to see what's happening in Gore in terms of overreach. We thought our Waitaki District proposed team was bad enough, but that is completely unpalatable. And to say that those areas haven't been you know, the entire area hasn't hasn't been identified as a site and area significant to EWE is sexually incorrect if you look at the regulations that they're looking and imposing, and you know the reality is, Jamie and I said this to our council the other day, we all want to protect truly unique areas, and you know those Section six of the r m A regulations were put in there to protect truly unique areas. But to blatantly color in the entire district and say come back to us when you want to do something in that area. And that's over top of private family homes, businesses. This is not just farmers, of course, urban areas that is of grave consum Jamie.

So I think you.

Know, everybody has lost sight of what this set up to do. And again it was to protect truly unique areas. So they absolutely need to be identified. But the only way they can be protected is a mutual guardianship touch scenario Jamie, of the landowner with those that want those protected, because I guess the public can eWeek appetite for for I guess power, and I guess control of the private property is insatiable, Jamie. So we just need some reality.

And we have a blueprint there. It's called the Q two National Trust that works really well. Hey, I'm out of time, Jane, but just quickly. It's of course getting close to mid August. I know you'll be a month or so away from Lamming where you are on North Otago. How's the season panning out, because I know up the road it's been very dry, are you guys okay?

Yeah, Well we obviously had that snow last or the week before last, Jamie and forty five fifty mils of rain prior to that, so I mean we usually sort of we look more like you know, mongolia usually at this time of year, sort of a gray brown color. But actually there is an almo sort of a green tinge of a possibly a false spring Jamie. But again people have really focused on stock condition and it's been a real it's been a real challenge, but hopefully we're we're in for a decent spring, Jamie. And and same with those other areas, particularly in North Canterbury, for very very difficult twelve months Jamie. So people are pretty positive. And again we drew to one Jammie.

All right, Jane Smith, a North Otago farmer, former winner of the Balance Farm Environment Awards them most importantly today Auntie of Olivia Brett. Thanks for your time, Thanks Jammy. Thanks Jane. It is twenty I'll call it twenty six away from one. We've just got a text in from Todd McLay and Deli. He's ready to roll. So Minister of Agriculture and Trade live from India after the break. Appreciate the time of our next guest on the country because it's very early morning in India. He's in Delhi. Yes, a city formerly known as New Delhi. Minister of Agriculture and Trade Todd McLay Todd, I'm going to talk to you about the end of the gene Tech band and a tick, but i just want to talk to you about your trade trip to India. How many times have you been there now since you've been in the job.

Yeah, Jamie, good afternoon. Thanks for having me on my third visit to India over the last nine months. But probably equally as you know, as interesting as it'll be my fifth meeting today with Minister Goyar PSQL who's their Commerce minister, the equivalent of trade and so you know, we've started a dialogue about all the ways that we can enhance trade to a trade between the two countries, particularly getting some of those MTBs, those non tariff areas out of the way. But look, it's fair to say primus election said we're going to invest in this relationship and make a priority and across the board, you know, you're starting to see.

That we need a bit of a break for as sheep farmers. At the moment the Aussies have got an FTI with India and the as sheep farmers are benefiting. That would be a huge start for us.

It would be. That's right. I was at a dinner last night with a number of their senior officials from their various ministries and interestingly more than half of them did meet because of course a lot of vegetarians here, and they were resoundingly of the view that New Zealand lamb was better than Australian lamb. Well, they said it was the best flam you could get, so let's just say better than Australian lamb as well. But they did say that some of the pricing made it a bit more challenging, and that comes to that teriff right where I think Australian he doesn't have that thirty percent twer of kiwis will face and so but there's a lot of opportunity here. We just need to invest in this relationship as it's clear that over the last five or six years that was underdone. Range of reasons don't really matter anymore. We just got to put a lot of effort and I think Jamie that we saw was it last week the Indian president visit New Zealand, only the second vista you have visited the history of our relationship with India. That's signals. I think that both governments are taking this relationship seriously as we you know, as we sort of reaffirm these contacts and get to know each other again.

Well, a trade deal around dairy with India is always going to be a bit tricky. Where's the real potential? Is it in the likes of Kiwi fruit?

Yeah?

Look, I think it's across the board. There are a lot of fruit and vesions you can sell, and here there is dairy as well. I mean, Fonterra does sell into India as just there's quotas around that and it can be fairly prohibitive. My visit actually is just not just about trade this time. I'm here as Agriculture minister also and I'm visiting quite a few of the starts of what looked like co ops. You know, the Modi government and the part elections have said they want to create a lot of co ops across agriculture. So if you think in dairy, they've got you know, India produces the most milk in the world, but the average a dairy farmer here has sort of three or four cows only. And so I'm visiting some of their process and clants I'll be visiting later today on the outskirts of Delhi some dairy farmers where they collect their milk and they take it off and it goes on the tanker somewhere. And so you know, there are some opportunities I think around dairy, but actually with one point four billion people and an economy that's growing, there is opportunity everywhere for Kiwi exporters in this market. We're going to invest in the relationship and then you know, get that framework that trade train work right.

Well, you keep up the good work on that front. Look, I've got a press release on the Hot Little Hands from Judith Collins, the Minister of Science, Innovation and Technology. She says the government is ending it's nearly thirty year ban on gene technology outside the lab, in a move which will mean health, productivity and climate gains for New Zealanders. What does it mean for farmers?

I think Jamie, it's very important, you know, New Zealand farmers innovate and we're at the front of the qu internationally of you know how our best practice. But some of these challenges are ound water quality or you know around climate change are extremely challenging. The government's been really really clear and the course of relux and you know, we have to meet our international obligations, but we're not going to close down Kiwi farms along the way. So this is just a recognition that that you know that the world has moved on a lot from all those years ago when we had challenges with monsanto. You know that old gemo technology has not used anymore. But actually some of the new technology that many countries are using will often New Zealand farmers, you know, an opportunity to more effectively meet those obligations. Think of it this way. You would hear a lot around rural New Zealand, including you know, many conservationists about wilding pines. The solution to wild and pines is no longer you know, millions of dollars and government's going out and spraying and cutting down you know, wild pine trees. It is gene technology and so Judith Collins and the government have recognized this. We're going to be very very sensible around but shed up a standalone a regulator similar to what Australia's done to make sure that New Zealander's, including in human health, are not left behind.

Todd McLay, Minister of Agriculture and Trade. Thanks, good time, very early on an Indian morning in Delhi. Save travels home.

You're welcome.

There we go again, doing good work on the world stage for us. Right, we're going to take a break on the other side of it. Yes, Michelle Wat's been almost redundant today. We better make her earn a keeps. You can do the rural news. We'll have sports news for you. It looks like I'm going to have to read it. Jamie Strong starting for cover. But when you road across cook Strait to raise money for Farmstrong, I think I'll let them away with that one. Before the end of the hour. Cameron Bagri tomorrow two pm. O cr announcement from Adrian or what's he going to do? We'll ask an expert in the field before the end of the hour. Welcome back to the country music today by our wire Appa Farmer and Cookstroke Cookstroke, Cookstrait. He had lots of strokes getting across, I mean strokes with the rowing. I'm getting in trouble here. Let me ditch out of us because I'm making mistake. Here's a mistake I made yesterday which I'm just going to correct now.

Weather Watch with Elanko passionate about animal health.

Yep, thank you Alanko. They support the weather now in the country. I missed that sting yesterday as we were chatting to Big Phil Duncan. So weather very very key at this time of the year. As I say, August and September the most important months, weather wiser. I think they are on the farming calendar. Jamie Strand can ponder that for a moment. He might not agree with me, but that's when all the calves and lambs are being born, and that's when a lot of our crops are growing into the ground. So thank you Alanko. Here's He's Michelle Watt Stranger to the microphone today with Rural News.

The country's world news with Cop Cadet, New Zealand's leading right on lawn Bower Brand. Visit steel Ford dot Cott INZP for your local stockist.

Sharing Sports New Zealand has a new chairman after retirement from the position of former Sharing great Through David Fagan. The new leader is Ragland farmer and Sharing contractor Warren Parker, who had been the chairman of the organization's North Island Committee for the past ten years and a Northland Northern delegate to Sharing Sports New Zealand for more than two decades. Parker was elected to the national position ahead of two other nominees at the Sharing Sports New Zealand and Your meeting held Antiquiti on Sunday and Monday.

Yeah, and congratulations to Sir David Fagan, a legend not only on the Sharing boards but also behind the boards and in the catching pens. Are doing the hard yards and I know he'll still have a heavy involvement with Sharing. Well done, Sir David Fagan. He's sports news.

Sport with avgarh Kiwi to the bone since nineteen oh four.

Former New Zealand track cycling coach Ron Cheatley reckons the five medal hall at the Paris Olympics show the recent evolution of the sport in atl Roer that's the artist formerly known as New Zealand. The success comes almost three years after the suspected suicide of athlete Olivia Podmore, which sparked an inquiry and significant change at Cycling New Zealand. Chiefly says the acknowledgment that change was necessary has contributed to the success in the Vlodrome and talking about sad sporting stories. Not only Olivia Podmore, but the widow of Graham Thorpe has revealed the former England cricket England cricketer took his own life earlier this month. The left hander of the left handed batter died aged fifty five, having played one hundred tests and eighty two to one days for England. Just remember that it's okay not to be okay. We're going to take break and we're going to catch up with Cameron Bagri and preview tomorrow's crucial OCR announcement. Cameron Baggory is an independent economist and like the rest of us, who'll be waiting with bated breath, no doubt, to see what Adrian or does at two o'clock tomorrow afternoon with his OCR announcement. I'd almost put the house on the fact that he's not going to move. Mind you, as I've said off and on the show, Cameron, I've got to see minus and economics one oh one. Let's ask someone who understands the economy, what do you reckon?

I think he's going to hold, but the door will be open towards a move later in the year. My fessional viewers that if I was a Reserve Bank. I'd want to see the whites of the eyes if inflation below three percent before you moved. But they're stepping back, whether they go tomorrow or later in the years. A bit of a mood point.

You know.

What the SPEM agreement on is that the OCO is going to be moving down in the twelve months, and that expectation we've already seen one, two, three year folks. Mortgage rates, boring rates at the air have already started to adjust lull. Yeah, So monetary policy is not just about what you do with the official cash rate from decision decision. That's what market expectations are over the next twelve to twenty four months, and market expectations are pretty firm. It's coming down.

Well, we've got tomorrow, and we've got a couple of more shots before the end of the year October nine, November twenty seven. Will we see two cuts? Do you reckon before the end of the year, Will he go twice?

Oh?

Potentially or yeah, maybe hold off when you wait till you get the inflation number at the end of October, and then November might be fifty ye. So there's a whole lot of different permutations in regard to how this thing could play out. But the bigger picture here is pretty simple, Jamie. You know, the resserve banks had a lot of success beating the economy out. When you beat the economy out, you set in frame what's called disinflation, and inflation is coming down. It looks like it's going to be sub three percent before the end of the y. That's what the Reserve Bank needed to see in order to provide interstrate relief and interest rate relief. Looks like it's around the corner because the Reserve Bank has done their job and got inflation back under control. Unfortunately, there's a pretty nasty by product, which is a teimith the economy.

So what do you make of the government's very I guess ambitious aim to double exports within a decade, And we look at the energy crisis we're currently in. Have we got the electricity to do it? And we look at our biggest export sector, if you want the dairy industry, there's no way we're going to double production in the dairy industry in the next ten years. We're not allowed to even if we wanted to.

Yes, it look the aspiration to take exports from one hundred billion to two hundred billion is fine. The problem is you're going to need a fair bit of perspiration in regards to deliver that target. And there's a lot of beating the drum in regard to the market access in the deeper trade linkages to the locks of Japan and other parts of Southeast Asia, and that's fine and ny, but the biggest here as producing stuff. And that illustration here, where's the energy electricity going to come from to meet a doubling of expert growth. If we're not going to get growth out of the traditional pastoral sector, we're going to have the tur b chides likes of horticulture, apples, those sort of industries, and that's going to be a long bow to kick those up. So if I look at what's in the recipe for doubling exports, it's mostly about generating initiues that are going to support the supply the ability to produce this stuff. There's a lot of flag waving in regard to the demand market access, but the building blocks here in regard to the doubling exports comes down.

To supply very quickly. To finish on we're still bathing in the glory of our most successful Olympics ever. And I know you've got a daughter who's in the national junior rowing squad. Emma, I thinks your daughter's name? Is she a chance for twenty twenty eight? How good would it be to go along and see your kid in the Olympics camera.

Well, I'm about to fly out in a week's time, head up to Canada. There's the under twenty threes, there's under nineteen real champs. There's a lot of talented kids that are coming through the system. And once again, most important thing to me is that the kids have fun.

At this age.

Just give you best and those kids out there and they go for help the leather and it's just a great sport. Any kid that's got rolling on their CV. If anybody sees a CV with the kid that's done rowing, why that kid was quite or they know how to put in hard work.

Well, I always reflect back. Apparently the story is so Gordon Titchens, when he introduced new players into the seventh squad, he would go and tell them to warm up in the gym. If they went on the bike, he would kick him out. If they weren't on the run on the treadmill. They had a chance, and if they were on the rower, they were given the tick. So there you go. It just reflects how tough rowing is. Cameron Bagri, thanks for your time and I think we'll call for a hold on the ocr maybe another couple of cups before the end of the year. Thanks for your time, all the best, Jamy Tick. Thanks Cameron, look forward to that one two o'clock tomorrow, right four away from one. Jamie Strang's in the studio. There's a man who knows a thing or two about rowing. He rode across Cook Strait to raise money for Farmstrong. Jamie, you've got like thirty seconds left to get a plug in for the Balance Farm Environment Awards. You and my old mate Warwick Kato do a great job judging them. Entries are open, Yeah, they open on the first of August.

They go through to October. There's been a lot of entries already. And I like to say to people, Jamie that it's a bit like rowing across cook straight. Are you going to do it? You're not going to do it. No, you give it a go and see what happens. And that's the way it is with these awards. Give it a go, get in there, and the amazing things will come out of it for individuals who do well.

I know people who have entered and not everyone can win, but just the networking opportunities and their regional competitions with the other finalists has been wonderful. Jamie Strang, it's been great to have you in the studio. That's us done and dusted for today. We'll catch you back again tomorrow. Christopher Luxon on the show, plus Nadia Lemon, Carlos Begri will catch you then.

So catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in John Deere machinery

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