Her name is Emma Higgins. She's a senior ag analyst for Rabobank. On occasions I call her a bit of a grinch, but I think she's actually got some good news for us today, Emma, and I'm going to start with the financial good news, if you don't mind me doing so. That annual inflation number came in this morning at three point three percent, lower end of the band. This kind of justifies what you guys at Rabobank have been saying, and to be fair, you've been sticking to your guns all year on interest rate drops. Oh see our drops coming sooner rather than later. Good afternoon, Hi, Jamie.

Her name is Emma Higgins. She's a senior ag analyst for Rabobank. On occasions I call her a bit of a grinch, but I think she's actually got some good news for us today, Emma, and I'm going to start with the financial good news, if you don't mind me doing so. That annual inflation number came in this morning at three point three percent, lower end of the band. This kind of justifies what you guys at Rabobank have been saying, and to be fair, you've been sticking to your guns all year on interest rate drops. Oh see our drops coming sooner rather than later. Good afternoon, Hi, Jamie.

Yes, that's right. We have been holding of you for a long time now that the RBNZ would cut rates earlier than their latest guidance of mids to next year that they recently put out. So Jamie, as we speak, our forecast still remains for the first rate cut to arrive in August of this year, so that's unchanged. We've held that for a long time, but obviously the time of that so it was a little bit risky, although the latest start that just came out might support that.

Yes, that's right. We have been holding of you for a long time now that the RBNZ would cut rates earlier than their latest guidance of mids to next year that they recently put out. So Jamie, as we speak, our forecast still remains for the first rate cut to arrive in August of this year, so that's unchanged. We've held that for a long time, but obviously the time of that so it was a little bit risky, although the latest start that just came out might support that.

Yeah, I don't know. Can you have a word in Adrian All's air. I'm not sure he's thinking about August. I even reckon if we can get one in November. I think the last OC reviews something like November the twenty seventh, just to kickstart the economy or get us going breathe some life into it before Christmas.

Yeah, I don't know. Can you have a word in Adrian All's air. I'm not sure he's thinking about August. I even reckon if we can get one in November. I think the last OC reviews something like November the twenty seventh, just to kickstart the economy or get us going breathe some life into it before Christmas.

Yeah, look, I think any warm good news on that front before Christmas will be warmly welcomed because you know, anecdotally, when we're out there talking to all people across the economy, whether it's in the food production space, the forestry space or retail, a lot of people are finding it really hard. So yeah, look, Jamie, noan likes the Christmas Grench, do they? So hopefully we can have some good news before Christmas.

Yeah, look, I think any warm good news on that front before Christmas will be warmly welcomed because you know, anecdotally, when we're out there talking to all people across the economy, whether it's in the food production space, the forestry space or retail, a lot of people are finding it really hard. So yeah, look, Jamie, noan likes the Christmas Grench, do they? So hopefully we can have some good news before Christmas.

I've already chatted to another Emma Parsons from Fonterra about the GDT auction. I'll get a comment from you on that one as well. But I want to while you're in this non grinch mood, Emma Higgins, get some common tree and hopefully some positivity or some green shoots for red meat, especially lamb.

I've already chatted to another Emma Parsons from Fonterra about the GDT auction. I'll get a comment from you on that one as well. But I want to while you're in this non grinch mood, Emma Higgins, get some common tree and hopefully some positivity or some green shoots for red meat, especially lamb.

Okay, Jamie, so there are some green shoots happening out there for sheep meet. Let's start off with that, because that's obviously the one that's been the most challenging for quite a while now, and challenging is an understatement. We are seeing schedule prices check upward orbe it. They are outside of the bottom of the five year average price range and still well below this time last year. But what we're seeing is actually demand from other smaller markets that is really helpful. So yes, China still absorbs the bulk of our sheep meat, although the volumes that they're taking in their latest data are lower computed last year. But we're also seeing good demand from the likes of our friends in the EU and also in the UK as well some other smaller markets Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia. They are also procuring more volume as well. This is good because, particularly when it comes to the EU in the UK, they tend to pay more for our products, and all of this is great when we're looking at what prices are right now. Those secondary markets are stepping up and that's helping to steady the price floor with broad based demand.

Okay, Jamie, so there are some green shoots happening out there for sheep meet. Let's start off with that, because that's obviously the one that's been the most challenging for quite a while now, and challenging is an understatement. We are seeing schedule prices check upward orbe it. They are outside of the bottom of the five year average price range and still well below this time last year. But what we're seeing is actually demand from other smaller markets that is really helpful. So yes, China still absorbs the bulk of our sheep meat, although the volumes that they're taking in their latest data are lower computed last year. But we're also seeing good demand from the likes of our friends in the EU and also in the UK as well some other smaller markets Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia. They are also procuring more volume as well. This is good because, particularly when it comes to the EU in the UK, they tend to pay more for our products, and all of this is great when we're looking at what prices are right now. Those secondary markets are stepping up and that's helping to steady the price floor with broad based demand.

What are you hearing about from on the ground in China about their economy.

What are you hearing about from on the ground in China about their economy.

Yeah, things are still quite challenging. Within China, and you know, some of the data still points to this as well. Obviously there's a long way to go before we can start to see that translate in terms of improved demand for some of our products just from what we're hearing within China, but also you know, looking at and talking to some of the people that are in market for signific sheet meat and for beef as well, So it is quite challenging out there. China is critical when we're looking at our export volumes, whether it's sheet meat, whether it's beef, or whether it's dairy. But again, those green shoots that we'll keep looking at is that other markets are stepping up and we need that to continue and the void that's left behind as China as a little bit lackluster.

Yeah, things are still quite challenging. Within China, and you know, some of the data still points to this as well. Obviously there's a long way to go before we can start to see that translate in terms of improved demand for some of our products just from what we're hearing within China, but also you know, looking at and talking to some of the people that are in market for signific sheet meat and for beef as well, So it is quite challenging out there. China is critical when we're looking at our export volumes, whether it's sheet meat, whether it's beef, or whether it's dairy. But again, those green shoots that we'll keep looking at is that other markets are stepping up and we need that to continue and the void that's left behind as China as a little bit lackluster.

What did you make of the GDT auction overnight up zero point four percent, albeit powders down a bit, But I think it was better than the future's market was picking.

What did you make of the GDT auction overnight up zero point four percent, albeit powders down a bit, But I think it was better than the future's market was picking.

It was better than what the futures markets expected. Look, I think the price weakness and the powder space can be explained by somewhat at least by seasonality. So look, this is the point of time and the calendar year where we start to see more volume being added onto the GDT platform, particularly for powders. Next month it will be quite noticeable. There'll be a seven percent list compared to the month that we've just seen. And so this coincides with New Zealand seasonal milk supply curve and that really ramping up. The question is will we continue to see steady command enough to really absorb that extra product and help to see stable commodity prices. But the good news, as you've alluded to, Jamie, is that milkfats continue to perform well, particularly that in hydrous milkfat price as well.

It was better than what the futures markets expected. Look, I think the price weakness and the powder space can be explained by somewhat at least by seasonality. So look, this is the point of time and the calendar year where we start to see more volume being added onto the GDT platform, particularly for powders. Next month it will be quite noticeable. There'll be a seven percent list compared to the month that we've just seen. And so this coincides with New Zealand seasonal milk supply curve and that really ramping up. The question is will we continue to see steady command enough to really absorb that extra product and help to see stable commodity prices. But the good news, as you've alluded to, Jamie, is that milkfats continue to perform well, particularly that in hydrous milkfat price as well.

And we all remember what happened in August twenty twenty three. Hopefully we can dodge a bullet. Actually, that's the wrong terminology to use at the moment, Emma. Just before I let you go, you and you make Claire Williamson, who was a winner at the Primary Industry New Zealand Awards. You have a wonderful podcast out called Black Heels and Track the Wheels. When does season two come out? It's a bit like Yellowstone, Ah.

And we all remember what happened in August twenty twenty three. Hopefully we can dodge a bullet. Actually, that's the wrong terminology to use at the moment, Emma. Just before I let you go, you and you make Claire Williamson, who was a winner at the Primary Industry New Zealand Awards. You have a wonderful podcast out called Black Heels and Track the Wheels. When does season two come out? It's a bit like Yellowstone, Ah.

Isn't it waiting? Waiting waiting? But look, Jamie, we're in the process of setting a date for recording our next round of podcasts interviews with fabulous women from across New Zealand in that rural space, and hopefully by the end of the year we'll have a whole new season to hit the airwaves.

Isn't it waiting? Waiting waiting? But look, Jamie, we're in the process of setting a date for recording our next round of podcasts interviews with fabulous women from across New Zealand in that rural space, and hopefully by the end of the year we'll have a whole new season to hit the airwaves.

Looking forward to it. Emma Higgins from Rabobank, Thanks as always for your time.

Looking forward to it. Emma Higgins from Rabobank, Thanks as always for your time.

Thanks so much to Amy

Thanks so much to Amy