The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by fan Duel. It's NFL playoff time. No better place to get in on the action than Fan Duel. FanDuel app is safe. You get paid fast, A lot of ways to play the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action, same game. Parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin and download the fan Duel app today. Fan Duel now live in Ohio. Hi, everybody, Welcome in to the Friday morning podcast. Sharper Square. I've got sides in the Niners, Eagles, Bengals, Chiefs. So that's about ten minutes away. Chad Milman very exciting. So I want to touch on something that I think kind of runs counterintuitive to what a lot of people think. Good people get fired all the time. Mark Cuban was fired, Howard Stern was fired. It's there are cuts in staffing, you know. I see stories where tech companies are laying off ten thousand people. Those are good employees. When I started the volume, one of the first breaks I got was that COVID had decimated many of these large media companies and some of my employees, many of them here at the volume of our twenty seven twenty eight employees worked at the ESPN to Zone, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, very very talented people. Just companies had to make budgets. There were some financial shortfalls expectations. You know how it works at big companies. So we start with that, and this is true in sports. Is that take coaching. The Kansas City Chiefs fired Marv Levy. He went on to get to four Super Bowls with the Bills. Many of you may remember this. The Jags fired Tom Coughlin. He went on to beat Belichick and Brady and out coach them in two Super Bowls. So this happens. Tylu got fired by the Calves. He got off to like an Owen six start. Tyler's a top seven eight coach in the NBA easily maybe top four or five. So when Frank Reich was fired by the Colts, it was a mistake by the organization. And I'll give you a little background on that. So we would all admit that about seventy seventy five percent of the NFL right now is coach quarterback. That's good. You can have flaws in other places. So Andrew Luck. With Frank Reich, he had him for a year. How did Frank do with Andrew Andrew Luck had missed the previous season due to an injury. His first and last year with Frank Reich, Andrew Luck had his career best in completion percentage, passer rating, thirty nine tds, fifteen picks, comeback Player of the Year, and made the Pro Bowl. He had his most efficient year Andrew Luck did with Frank Reich. Philip Rivers from the previous year with the Chargers went five and eleven with Frank Wreich. When eleven and five, his passer rating went from eighty eight to ninety seven. His interceptions, always an issue with Rivers, went from twenty to eleven. Philip Rivers had his most efficient year in the last several with Frank Reich. Let's go to Carson Wentz. Now you roll your eyes at Carson Wentz. But the one year that Frank Reich had Carson Wentz, he went from three eight and one with the Eagles as a starter to nine and eight. He went from a sixteen touchdown fifteen pick ratio to twenty sevents and seven picks. His passer rating jumped from seventy two to ninety four point six, so three different quarterbacks. Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz had significant upgrades. Inefficiency, completion percentage and turnovers dropped, and the Colts fired him. The Jags fired Tom Coughlin, the Cowboys moved off Jimmy Johnson, the Brown Slash Ravens moved off Bill Belichick. Marv Levy got bounced by the Chiefs. Frank Reich is a really good coach. Carolina got a good one. They have an excellent defense, specifically in the front seven, with talented young corners. In the back end. DJ Moore's a nice receiver. They got to rebuild the old line a little not terrible, get themselves a quarterback. I think Carolina stole the Indianapolis Colts mistake. And this all goes back to the meddling of Jim Rsey. If I said to you meddling owners in the NFL the last decade, four jump out to me the old Al Davis, Dan Snyder, Jerry Jones, and recently in the last year, Jim Ersay. So this week, Charles Barkley went on the TNT Show during an NBA game and railed on the players, for star players, for missing starts, and it's called load management. It has become the biggest issue that Adam Silver, the NBA Commission faces. Star players sitting out won't play back to backs. Now, some in the media view that as two pro owner and two anti player. And I'll give you an example. One of my favorite baseball players growing up was George Brett. And I remember looking at George Brett's stats one time, years and years ago, and Brett missed like thirty games a year, and I thought, oh wow. But remember George Brett played on AstroTurf in the summer in Kansas City. That f and field was one hundred and thirty degrees. Players took more time off the resources, nutrition training methods playing on AstroTurf. When players were missing games in the seventies, eighties, nineties, there was a sense they were doing it to rehab their body. I mean, Steve Garvey told me years ago that when he played on AstroTurf, his cleats occasionally stuck to the field. He had to constantly move his feet. So when a baseball player now on grass fields, you know, is missing thirty games, it does feel different. Nutritional standards training methods, resources, teams, private jets. In fact, you're seeing this in the NFL, that home field advantage in the NFL is no longer three and a half points. And the reason being Washington Post detailed this in an article is that essentially, with team planes, players have more space, they set up training centers at the hotel within an hour of landing. Is that the truth is road teams don't have This isn't a disservice to the eighties, nineties and early two thousands. It's a reality of the advancements of the league. You can go on the road and you get equal treatment to at home. Fewer distractions, better planes, more rest, better hydration, more trainers, better trainers. Home field advantage in the NFL has less impact. So where I side with Barkley is that when an older NBA player a Wilt, they used to fly commercial. You'd get on a plane out of Seattle six in the morning, you could be sitting with the Lakers. They flew commercial. And if a guy missed fifteen games in the seventies, eighties, nineties, a lot of it was because they just didn't have the resources to take care of their body. That's why you see so many older NBA players Phil Jackson crouched over, bent over. They're beat up physically, they don't age particularly well. Their backs don't, their shoulders don't. So it does feel different today when Yokich can't play a back to back. It's not just the salary. Athletes are treated better le physically, it's an easier life. It's not just resentment toward the salary. I do think load management is a huge problem in the NBA. I would love for the league to cut out back to backs because I grew up in a small town and when I was a kid, if I went to a game of Seattle Sonics game and downtown Freddie Brown and Gus Williams and DJ or Jack Segman didn't play, was a bummer. I mean, I went specifically to the Kingdom to watch Larry Bird against my Sonics. And so I think the criticism by Barkley is reasonable. Some will say, well, you know, Charles at the end of his career was missing. You know, he was missing like twenty twenty five games. Even at the end of Barkley's career, which is fairly recent, bodies were treated differently. 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Post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply LinkedIn dot com slash column. All Right Chad Millman CCO Action Network. All odds provided by a FanDuel. Well after hitting fifty five percent this year, the playoffs arrive and I don't have a feel for any playoff game. I guess I got the Jags to late cover, which is what we predicted. But let's start forty nine ers at Eagles. All throw out kind of the two things that jump out to me. Greg ko Sell, who's my favorite guest maybe ever on the show, says, the last two starts are starting to show some tendencies with Brock pretty they're now on film. He's scrambling backwards. He now goes consistently to his left. He has been incapable of delivering on some really nice schemed and scripted plays. There are now we are seeing limitations, and the Eagles are seeing them. Philadelphia has got seventeen players who are either Pro Bowl starters or alternatives at home, significantly more dynamic quarterback. You know, rookies in this spot have been disastrous McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell missing practice. I'd probably swallow the points and take Philadelphia sharper square. I would say, generally sharp. The challenge with the playoffs, as you just noted, is someone's going to find a reason to like something. And so this line opened it around pick on Sunday night. Literally that lasted less than five minutes got up to one and a half two. I bet Eagles minus two Sunday night. It's landed at two and a half. Most wise, guys have this power rated at three, so you're still getting a half point of value. What's troubling if you're an Eagles backer is you've seen the money come in on the Eagles and it really hasn't hit the three, which means that professional money continues to come in on the Niners enough that the books are wary of getting to the three because they'll just get pounded with money on the Niners. Schematically, on the field. Couldn't agree with you more personally, I think you're starting to see as Cosell pointed out, and I agree. He's one of my favorite guests on your show. He has pointed out that Brock Purdy is starting to show a little bit of why he might not be a Hall of Famer yet. And I think that you're taking a rookie playing his third game on the road. Yeah, in the NFC title game, and it's not Vegas that he's going to where one of his games were. It's not Seattle against Geno Smith in a defense that was really starting to struggle it's Philadelphia like it's Philadelphia with a historically great pass rush and historically great offensive line that is getting players downfield, and they have tremendous amount of yards before contact numbers. So how do you not take the Eagles here? It feels like exactly the right side. I love the Eagles in this spot. Maybe I've talked myself into it. I've heard a lot of people say they like the Niners, but the majority of wise guys are agreeing with you. Well, here's something else to remember. That Cowboy team went into the second half without Tony Pollard, a kicker who was in his head, and Dallas was on the road. And let's be honest, Michael Gallop, it's I would submit to you, he's not a two, he's a three. So, Mike McCarthy, I think it's done mostly a very good job. But they didn't dust the Cowboys off, and Zeke at this point is a short yardage back. They had one home run hitter on offense, and the Niners knew it. Ceedee Lamb. It was a very very limited offense they were facing. Yeah, it's a different game with Tony Pollard completely because they were playing it close in that game and Dak Prescott was terrible. It was really bad. So now you're now you're on the road A J. Brown Smith. There's a conveyor belt of quality tight ends for Philadelphia Sanders Jalen Hurts. It's very likely you will play now from behind. Also, if you look at Philadelphia, now this is my concern with Philadelphia. Let me throw this at you. Okay, So Kyle Shanahan is now seven and oh with his third string quarterback. That's pretty impressive. Oh yeah, Philadelphia's story to this point is GM Howie Roseman. Okay, Sereanni doesn't get any credit for the roster build and nor does he get a ton of credit for this fact when Jalen Hurts was out and very capable backup Gardner Minshew more than capable upper third of backups and win games. So the roster that's Roseman, Jalen Hurts. When he's gone, that's when coaching really matters. You don't get the juice at Jalen right, like ky Oh Shanahan winning with brock Purty. That's not a Brock Purty story as much as it is a roster compilation and a Kyle Shanahan story. So you take out Jalen Hurts. With this roster of seventeen pro bowler alternates, they don't went with Gardner Minshew a capable backup. So what I'm saying is Kyle Shanahan and Nick Seriani. Let's not elevate Nick, who got crushed in the playoffs last year and beat it completely outmanned Giants team. I said today on the show, I like Nick. I was wrong on Nick, But if the second half of this game Shanahan was playing Chester checkers, you wouldn't be shocked, right, right. So that's where I'm a little like I saw him without Jalen. It wasn't like he was a chess master, right. It's so interesting you look at it from that point of view. A couple of things. I loved the video the other day of Nick Sirianni on the sideline yelling at I don't know who when he was going for two or lining up to go for two after one of the touchdowns, yelling I know what I'm fucking doing. But I worry, and I'm you know, being a little silly, but I do worry when there's a coach who feels like he needs to be yelling that to someone on his sideline, and that is getting that sort of uptight about being challenged, right, Yeah, I don't get the sense that Sean McVay a responds that way and b has someone saying to him, what are you doing? Or Bill Belichick has someone was so like, I know, it's like it's a funny little clip. But I did look at that and be like that was weird, Like I just that was a I don't know any leaders who do that, right, And so I thought that was interesting. One. You will get no argument for me that Kyle Shanahan is amongst the two three best coaches in the NFL. I love the guy. I think that they are an automatic Super Bowl contender no matter what. And I think he has more fun scheming for second and third stringers on his team probably than any coach in the NFL. Like he is so creative and so good at it. And we've seen it year after year. Name a team that consistently loses their quarterback, they're starting left tackle, their best running back, their best receiver, their entire defense, and consistently every single year does as well as he does, as if it's like not even missing a beat. Right, So I think the guy is brilliant and I think he love him as a coach. Don't disagree with you at all on this, and I think some of what you're saying leads me to the next thing I would say about this game, which is a little bit against the market. But the over, and the reason I like the over is because we've started to see some cracks in the forty nine ers back line pass defense. And I do think that Jalen hurts a J. Brown, DeVante Smith, Goddard. They are a serious quartet of weapons that can take advantage of some passing defense deficiencies. And that does not need great coaching. That needs good coordinating and it needs good talent. And on the flip side, if there's anybody who can figure out how to scheme against a really good pass rush, it's Kyle Shanahan. So I do think there are opportunities for this game to play against type. So I did feel Philadelphia was the side, and I have all week Bengals Chiefs. We have the variable. So I've talked about it today on the show. I've got video of Mahomes. He's a full practice participant. There are three levels to high ankle sprains. Grade one which is mild. He also played very well hundred passer raiding in the game after the sprain, so I'm not overly concerned. Also, Will Blackman pointed out in the show today, sometimes when Malholmes gets in trouble, he's a little squirrely when he extends plays. When you force him to sit in the pocket, it's pretty good, and so I don't worry about that. Here's though, why I like Cincinnati plus a point, and here's why. Over the last twenty games in the NFL, there's an argument to be made Cincinnati's the best second half defense in the league, even better than San Francisco. They make adjustments like nobody else the other and by the way, against Kansas City as well. They have trailed Kansas City in their last three beatings of the Chiefs, but have dominated late fourth or overtime. I believe Cincinnati has become something that doesn't get a lot of love, but it was what the Patriots with Belichick and Brady did. They were the best situational football team for about twenty years. Cincinnati is remarkably good situationally, like even better than Kansas City. A lot of its burrows accuracy, so during the off season. Remember Burrows first year and a half once against the Bears he could be turnover prone. So in the off season Cincinnati said, you know what, We're going to peel back some of the deeper routes and do more intermediate closer. Now, the Bengals give you an upside with no turnovers. This is what they did to Buffalo. So you have the most accurate passer completion percentage in league history. Borrow a team that's no longer giving you turnovers. That was Mahome's secret sauce early the best adjusting defense in the league with absolutely no pressure. These are the Chiefs. This is Mahomes, this is read. I think I like Cincinnati. Sharper square, dude. This game is a roller coaster, and you're not going to get a consensus. You're going to be sharp. You're gonna be with a bunch of sharps, and there's also going to be sharps who like Kansas City. So let me give you the reasons why I think Kansas City at minus one is the play. And this isn't as much about betting and number shopping and as we often talk about getting the best of the number, as it is about the side. This game opened Cincinnati plus three on Sunday night. I bet at Cincinnati plus three. Immediately it got bet down to pick Cincinnati plus one. I mean Cincinnati minus one, case plus one. By Tuesday afternoon it's Kansas City plus two and a half. I bet the Kansas City plus two and a half. By last night, it was back to Kansas City plus one this morning. We're recording this on Thursday afternoon. Kansas City is a one point favorite because of what we saw with my homes. You will get wise guys telling you I am back in Joe Burrow one hundred percent, and then you will get wise guys telling you I'm playing my model. My model has Kansas City as a slight favorite to pick in this game, right, So I'm sorry. Kansas City is a slight favorite to minus two in this game. So you're going to get both sides of it. It's really going to come down to how do you feel what's going to make you the least uncomfortable in this game. I wish I could give you a consensus. I can't. I can't in any good conscious like now. We talked about this in the favorites today. We did sharp calls where the wise guys will call us over the forty eight hours from Tuesday to Thursday between our two podcasts and tell us what they think of what we're saying. And a lot of the wise guys were just like, I won't bet against Joe Burrow. The guy's nineteen and one against the spread as less than a seven point underdog. So the majority of the money in here came in on the Bengals because of where the number was. And that's really what the wise guys did after that, to anybody's guess. The NFL Conference Championships this Sunday. 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Refund issued as non withdrawable psyche credit that expires in fourteen days. Restrictions suplice terms at sportsbook dot fandel dot com. Gambling problem one hundred, next step or text next step to five three three four two Arizona eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org, slash chat Connecticut one hundred abler or visit FanDuel dot com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, Jersey, in Virginia one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one hundred seven oh seven and one on seven for confidential health in Michigan on eight seven seven h Ope, n Y or techs Hope, n Y F six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee redline eight nine nine Tennessee visits one eight hundred Gambler Dot in West Virginia. I'll tell you I did. I did say this. Four coaches left all offensive, final eight coaches seven offensive. But I do think something is important here is that all four offenses, to me, have an identity. I still think one of my biggest takeaways of this playoff Brandon Staley and Sean McDermott feel like those offenses just call plays and that we are having a revolution in this sport. And I've been talking about this ad nauseum for two years is that even with a third string quarterback, I absolutely believe the forty nine ers have an offensive identity physicality, finding an extra blocker, using multiple weapons at multiple levels, always using motion. With a third string quarterback, I felt Josh Allen was deep balls up the sideline in a snowstorm. I had somebody I had a scouting buddy in this league say, in snowstorms, the hardest thing to catch is a deep ball up a sideline. A it's hard to see what's in what's not be You're asking players to look up into the snow. Shorter routes much easier. I'm staring at the quarterback. Don't ask receivers to look up in snow. He said that sounds ridiculous. Tom Brady says snow games are great as long as there's no wind. He goes, because edge rushers a can't get their eat, and he goes, linebackers get to their positions quicker because they're sliding over the field, so they give away what they're doing with twelve seconds left before the snaff so little tiny think and NS scout says, you never want the sideline deep route snow flakes flying down. He goes, it's just hard for these guys. Cincinnati had an identity, quick, precise eight yards in, move the clock, take the first downs, and I thought Buffalo looked absolutely disoriented. And so I guess my takeaway is you start ask yourself about your football team, even if it's flawed. In twenty twenty three, do you sense that you have an offensive identity regardless if you have a great quarterback? It really matters, because I could argue the Chargers and the Bills lost to teams where they had better personnel. I feel like, I'll take it one step totally agree with your take, except I kind of don't. And I think that the Bills do have an identity. I think they have the identity of their quarterback, and I think they have the identity of being immensely talented, incredibly high strung, and a rollercoaster of emotions when things are going well. For Josh Allen, he shows it. When things are not going well, He's showing it right, pounding the turf, throwing tantrums, looking down the Bengals, the ooze confidence. And it's not just Joe Burrow, right, it's Jamar Chase, It's Joe Mixon. And they play with a physicality that is different than other teams. Jamar Chase is not the biggest guy in the world, but he runs through tacklers when he gets a screen pass. Right, Joe Mixon like he is just bullying people. Joe Burrow is unflappable, and so I think there's a huge discrepancy in personality, and teams take on the person out of their quarterback, and I think we saw that in complete relief in that Bill's Bengals game. So I do think there's personalities. I just I think that the Bills don't have a good personality, and so I think I think that's their problem right now. Yeah, they look they came off as a little rigid as well. You know McDermott comes from that, you know, a little bit of that old school play defense, punt field position. I just think it's really hard. I was talking to Kyle van Noy the other day for a Patriot player now he's with the Chargers free agent, and he said, he goes, when I came into this league, guys didn't want to go over the middle. He goes, everybody wants to go over the middle now, and it's like he goes as a as a linebacker. It's just the tight ends are more athletic and faster. They don't fear anybody, the sivers backs. He said, the game has changed in ten years. The middle of the field is just a paradise for offensive players. You and I grew up there was a term called alligator arms, and if you had one receiver Michael Urban willing to go over the middle, that was it. I can remember Philadelphia having a receiver I liked out of college. He didn't pan out Freddie Mitchell and I can remember a game specifically, and he dropped a pass and the announcer at the time, whoever it was, talked about, he's not a guy that's comfortable going over the middle and I and it just stuck in my head. That was a lot of players, a lot The way to score quickly in the NFL was a deep ball up the sideline. That's how you did it. That's how the seventies Steelers did at the Swan over the top. You didn't have these seam routes, guys going through. It didn't exist. Just not what you did. And so I think these offensive coaches they're playing chess. They can completely manipulate defenses. When Nick Saban years ago in a New York Times piece acknowledge, yeah, I can't. I can't really stop up if a quarterback can move and not a lot I can do. The rules have changed. There's just limitations on what I can do with the receivers, quarterbacks the middle of the field. When Saban's telling you that at the college level, when Tennessee's dropping forty five or fifty on Saban, at the college level where he has an athletic advantage, a personnel advantage, and I felt the margins are small. So I think coaching matters more in the NFL than it ever has. I couldn't agree more. It's interesting you say that about Freddie Mitchell because I agree with you, and he was a high draft pick, I think out of UCLA at the UCLA I liked him a lot out of college, and he was supposed to be sort of the second coming of someone who is a great downfield I lamorous receiver, couldn't go over the middle, kind of never really developed. But I'm pretty sure it was Freddie Mitchell who made that miraculous catch down the middle on like a third and twenty seven or a fourth and twenty seven from Donovant Nab during their run. I think it was what got them to the super Bowl, and like late nineties, early two thousands, I got to look it up. I'm almost positive it was, which is just ironic. Now you got guys like Deebo Samuel right, who are they live in the middle, Like as big as a linebacker. It's scarier for the linebacker the safety to hit them than it is for them to go over the middle because they're bigger and stronger and It's like when these linebackers and these safeties go into these guys and they're the ones who just fall down right and like they and Deebo will gain three or four more yards. It's amazing to see. Yeah, a box safety now like a Jamal Adams can't cover. There's there's arguments that you can't pay safeties and when you're Jamal Adams more of a hybrid safety linebacker, what's the point. And he's a unbelievably gifted player. But I can remember growing up with Kenny Easley and you know, Troy Polamalu who were thumpers and that was celebrated and it was necessary. That guy can't cover in space. Now that guy can't. You gotta be ed Read or Earl Thomas. You gotta go sideline to sideline. The thumper is a relic that because the middle of the field now everybody was speed wants to go down the middle of the field. You can't the thumper if I have you know, Seattle gave up two firsts and a tight end and a third. I think for Jamal Adams in retrospect, they got taken to the cleaners. Now they took Denver to the cleaners on Russell, but that in retrospect they gave up way too much for a box safety. Enny Easley, Steve Steve at Water kidding me, Chuckel, Oh my god, are like where I grew up in Chicago And it was Doug Plank. They literally named the greatest defense in NFL history after a hard hitting safety, right the forty six. The greatest defense in NFL history, most dominant defense in NFL history, Doug Plank was number forty six. You said something really interesting before the Bengals defense and their second half adjustments. This is not talked about enough, but I can tell you within the betting community of professional betters, you know, the Bengals have been on this incredible against the spread streak and for a lot of betters when they really started to pile on the Bengals and just decided it's Bengals or bust. DJ Reader coming off the injured list second half of the year, this team became a much more dominant team. And you see it every week. He's pushing the pocket, he's knocking down Valls, he's making the big stop on third and short against the opposing running back. This defense sixth overall in the NFL in yards, in points per play allowed, fifth in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. So if you're thinking about I don't really know which thought I want to go here, professionals have bet the under and it's been fascinating. This game opened about fifty one fifty one and a half. I bet it at fifty one and a half, got down to forty six and a half. Since Mahomes came back, it's back up to forty seven and a half. For those who are invested. Forty seven is a key number in totals, right. Key numbers are where games tend to land in twenty three, three, seven, ten in totals, forty seven, fifty one some other ones. If you can get under forty seven and a half, that's what the wise guys. That is a it's a we talked about pros Joe's all the time. All the bets are on the over all the money is on the under Chad Millman Action Network c CEO. All that's provided by Fandel Good Luck Good see Anyboddy good seeing you two man the volume, make sure to check out the Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports. Unique perspective understands behind the Rope also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts, only on the Volume podcast Network

The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by fan Duel. It's NFL playoff time. No better place to get in on the action than Fan Duel. FanDuel app is safe. You get paid fast, A lot of ways to play the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action, same game. Parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin and download the fan Duel app today. Fan Duel now live in Ohio. Hi, everybody, Welcome in to the Friday morning podcast. Sharper Square. I've got sides in the Niners, Eagles, Bengals, Chiefs. So that's about ten minutes away. Chad Milman very exciting. So I want to touch on something that I think kind of runs counterintuitive to what a lot of people think. Good people get fired all the time. Mark Cuban was fired, Howard Stern was fired. It's there are cuts in staffing, you know. I see stories where tech companies are laying off ten thousand people. Those are good employees. When I started the volume, one of the first breaks I got was that COVID had decimated many of these large media companies and some of my employees, many of them here at the volume of our twenty seven twenty eight employees worked at the ESPN to Zone, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, very very talented people. Just companies had to make budgets. There were some financial shortfalls expectations. You know how it works at big companies. So we start with that, and this is true in sports. Is that take coaching. The Kansas City Chiefs fired Marv Levy. He went on to get to four Super Bowls with the Bills. Many of you may remember this. The Jags fired Tom Coughlin. He went on to beat Belichick and Brady and out coach them in two Super Bowls. So this happens. Tylu got fired by the Calves. He got off to like an Owen six start. Tyler's a top seven eight coach in the NBA easily maybe top four or five. So when Frank Reich was fired by the Colts, it was a mistake by the organization. And I'll give you a little background on that. So we would all admit that about seventy seventy five percent of the NFL right now is coach quarterback. That's good. You can have flaws in other places. So Andrew Luck. With Frank Reich, he had him for a year. How did Frank do with Andrew Andrew Luck had missed the previous season due to an injury. His first and last year with Frank Reich, Andrew Luck had his career best in completion percentage, passer rating, thirty nine tds, fifteen picks, comeback Player of the Year, and made the Pro Bowl. He had his most efficient year Andrew Luck did with Frank Reich. Philip Rivers from the previous year with the Chargers went five and eleven with Frank Wreich. When eleven and five, his passer rating went from eighty eight to ninety seven. His interceptions, always an issue with Rivers, went from twenty to eleven. Philip Rivers had his most efficient year in the last several with Frank Reich. Let's go to Carson Wentz. Now you roll your eyes at Carson Wentz. But the one year that Frank Reich had Carson Wentz, he went from three eight and one with the Eagles as a starter to nine and eight. He went from a sixteen touchdown fifteen pick ratio to twenty sevents and seven picks. His passer rating jumped from seventy two to ninety four point six, so three different quarterbacks. Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz had significant upgrades. Inefficiency, completion percentage and turnovers dropped, and the Colts fired him. The Jags fired Tom Coughlin, the Cowboys moved off Jimmy Johnson, the Brown Slash Ravens moved off Bill Belichick. Marv Levy got bounced by the Chiefs. Frank Reich is a really good coach. Carolina got a good one. They have an excellent defense, specifically in the front seven, with talented young corners. In the back end. DJ Moore's a nice receiver. They got to rebuild the old line a little not terrible, get themselves a quarterback. I think Carolina stole the Indianapolis Colts mistake. And this all goes back to the meddling of Jim Rsey. If I said to you meddling owners in the NFL the last decade, four jump out to me the old Al Davis, Dan Snyder, Jerry Jones, and recently in the last year, Jim Ersay. So this week, Charles Barkley went on the TNT Show during an NBA game and railed on the players, for star players, for missing starts, and it's called load management. It has become the biggest issue that Adam Silver, the NBA Commission faces. Star players sitting out won't play back to backs. Now, some in the media view that as two pro owner and two anti player. And I'll give you an example. One of my favorite baseball players growing up was George Brett. And I remember looking at George Brett's stats one time, years and years ago, and Brett missed like thirty games a year, and I thought, oh wow. But remember George Brett played on AstroTurf in the summer in Kansas City. That f and field was one hundred and thirty degrees. Players took more time off the resources, nutrition training methods playing on AstroTurf. When players were missing games in the seventies, eighties, nineties, there was a sense they were doing it to rehab their body. I mean, Steve Garvey told me years ago that when he played on AstroTurf, his cleats occasionally stuck to the field. He had to constantly move his feet. So when a baseball player now on grass fields, you know, is missing thirty games, it does feel different. Nutritional standards training methods, resources, teams, private jets. In fact, you're seeing this in the NFL, that home field advantage in the NFL is no longer three and a half points. And the reason being Washington Post detailed this in an article is that essentially, with team planes, players have more space, they set up training centers at the hotel within an hour of landing. Is that the truth is road teams don't have This isn't a disservice to the eighties, nineties and early two thousands. It's a reality of the advancements of the league. You can go on the road and you get equal treatment to at home. Fewer distractions, better planes, more rest, better hydration, more trainers, better trainers. Home field advantage in the NFL has less impact. So where I side with Barkley is that when an older NBA player a Wilt, they used to fly commercial. You'd get on a plane out of Seattle six in the morning, you could be sitting with the Lakers. They flew commercial. And if a guy missed fifteen games in the seventies, eighties, nineties, a lot of it was because they just didn't have the resources to take care of their body. That's why you see so many older NBA players Phil Jackson crouched over, bent over. They're beat up physically, they don't age particularly well. Their backs don't, their shoulders don't. So it does feel different today when Yokich can't play a back to back. It's not just the salary. Athletes are treated better le physically, it's an easier life. It's not just resentment toward the salary. I do think load management is a huge problem in the NBA. I would love for the league to cut out back to backs because I grew up in a small town and when I was a kid, if I went to a game of Seattle Sonics game and downtown Freddie Brown and Gus Williams and DJ or Jack Segman didn't play, was a bummer. I mean, I went specifically to the Kingdom to watch Larry Bird against my Sonics. And so I think the criticism by Barkley is reasonable. Some will say, well, you know, Charles at the end of his career was missing. You know, he was missing like twenty twenty five games. Even at the end of Barkley's career, which is fairly recent, bodies were treated differently. 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Post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply LinkedIn dot com slash column. All Right Chad Millman CCO Action Network. All odds provided by a FanDuel. Well after hitting fifty five percent this year, the playoffs arrive and I don't have a feel for any playoff game. I guess I got the Jags to late cover, which is what we predicted. But let's start forty nine ers at Eagles. All throw out kind of the two things that jump out to me. Greg ko Sell, who's my favorite guest maybe ever on the show, says, the last two starts are starting to show some tendencies with Brock pretty they're now on film. He's scrambling backwards. He now goes consistently to his left. He has been incapable of delivering on some really nice schemed and scripted plays. There are now we are seeing limitations, and the Eagles are seeing them. Philadelphia has got seventeen players who are either Pro Bowl starters or alternatives at home, significantly more dynamic quarterback. You know, rookies in this spot have been disastrous McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell missing practice. I'd probably swallow the points and take Philadelphia sharper square. I would say, generally sharp. The challenge with the playoffs, as you just noted, is someone's going to find a reason to like something. And so this line opened it around pick on Sunday night. Literally that lasted less than five minutes got up to one and a half two. I bet Eagles minus two Sunday night. It's landed at two and a half. Most wise, guys have this power rated at three, so you're still getting a half point of value. What's troubling if you're an Eagles backer is you've seen the money come in on the Eagles and it really hasn't hit the three, which means that professional money continues to come in on the Niners enough that the books are wary of getting to the three because they'll just get pounded with money on the Niners. Schematically, on the field. Couldn't agree with you more personally, I think you're starting to see as Cosell pointed out, and I agree. He's one of my favorite guests on your show. He has pointed out that Brock Purdy is starting to show a little bit of why he might not be a Hall of Famer yet. And I think that you're taking a rookie playing his third game on the road. Yeah, in the NFC title game, and it's not Vegas that he's going to where one of his games were. It's not Seattle against Geno Smith in a defense that was really starting to struggle it's Philadelphia like it's Philadelphia with a historically great pass rush and historically great offensive line that is getting players downfield, and they have tremendous amount of yards before contact numbers. So how do you not take the Eagles here? It feels like exactly the right side. I love the Eagles in this spot. Maybe I've talked myself into it. I've heard a lot of people say they like the Niners, but the majority of wise guys are agreeing with you. Well, here's something else to remember. That Cowboy team went into the second half without Tony Pollard, a kicker who was in his head, and Dallas was on the road. And let's be honest, Michael Gallop, it's I would submit to you, he's not a two, he's a three. So, Mike McCarthy, I think it's done mostly a very good job. But they didn't dust the Cowboys off, and Zeke at this point is a short yardage back. They had one home run hitter on offense, and the Niners knew it. Ceedee Lamb. It was a very very limited offense they were facing. Yeah, it's a different game with Tony Pollard completely because they were playing it close in that game and Dak Prescott was terrible. It was really bad. So now you're now you're on the road A J. Brown Smith. There's a conveyor belt of quality tight ends for Philadelphia Sanders Jalen Hurts. It's very likely you will play now from behind. Also, if you look at Philadelphia, now this is my concern with Philadelphia. Let me throw this at you. Okay, So Kyle Shanahan is now seven and oh with his third string quarterback. That's pretty impressive. Oh yeah, Philadelphia's story to this point is GM Howie Roseman. Okay, Sereanni doesn't get any credit for the roster build and nor does he get a ton of credit for this fact when Jalen Hurts was out and very capable backup Gardner Minshew more than capable upper third of backups and win games. So the roster that's Roseman, Jalen Hurts. When he's gone, that's when coaching really matters. You don't get the juice at Jalen right, like ky Oh Shanahan winning with brock Purty. That's not a Brock Purty story as much as it is a roster compilation and a Kyle Shanahan story. So you take out Jalen Hurts. With this roster of seventeen pro bowler alternates, they don't went with Gardner Minshew a capable backup. So what I'm saying is Kyle Shanahan and Nick Seriani. Let's not elevate Nick, who got crushed in the playoffs last year and beat it completely outmanned Giants team. I said today on the show, I like Nick. I was wrong on Nick, But if the second half of this game Shanahan was playing Chester checkers, you wouldn't be shocked, right, right. So that's where I'm a little like I saw him without Jalen. It wasn't like he was a chess master, right. It's so interesting you look at it from that point of view. A couple of things. I loved the video the other day of Nick Sirianni on the sideline yelling at I don't know who when he was going for two or lining up to go for two after one of the touchdowns, yelling I know what I'm fucking doing. But I worry, and I'm you know, being a little silly, but I do worry when there's a coach who feels like he needs to be yelling that to someone on his sideline, and that is getting that sort of uptight about being challenged, right, Yeah, I don't get the sense that Sean McVay a responds that way and b has someone saying to him, what are you doing? Or Bill Belichick has someone was so like, I know, it's like it's a funny little clip. But I did look at that and be like that was weird, Like I just that was a I don't know any leaders who do that, right, And so I thought that was interesting. One. You will get no argument for me that Kyle Shanahan is amongst the two three best coaches in the NFL. I love the guy. I think that they are an automatic Super Bowl contender no matter what. And I think he has more fun scheming for second and third stringers on his team probably than any coach in the NFL. Like he is so creative and so good at it. And we've seen it year after year. Name a team that consistently loses their quarterback, they're starting left tackle, their best running back, their best receiver, their entire defense, and consistently every single year does as well as he does, as if it's like not even missing a beat. Right, So I think the guy is brilliant and I think he love him as a coach. Don't disagree with you at all on this, and I think some of what you're saying leads me to the next thing I would say about this game, which is a little bit against the market. But the over, and the reason I like the over is because we've started to see some cracks in the forty nine ers back line pass defense. And I do think that Jalen hurts a J. Brown, DeVante Smith, Goddard. They are a serious quartet of weapons that can take advantage of some passing defense deficiencies. And that does not need great coaching. That needs good coordinating and it needs good talent. And on the flip side, if there's anybody who can figure out how to scheme against a really good pass rush, it's Kyle Shanahan. So I do think there are opportunities for this game to play against type. So I did feel Philadelphia was the side, and I have all week Bengals Chiefs. We have the variable. So I've talked about it today on the show. I've got video of Mahomes. He's a full practice participant. There are three levels to high ankle sprains. Grade one which is mild. He also played very well hundred passer raiding in the game after the sprain, so I'm not overly concerned. Also, Will Blackman pointed out in the show today, sometimes when Malholmes gets in trouble, he's a little squirrely when he extends plays. When you force him to sit in the pocket, it's pretty good, and so I don't worry about that. Here's though, why I like Cincinnati plus a point, and here's why. Over the last twenty games in the NFL, there's an argument to be made Cincinnati's the best second half defense in the league, even better than San Francisco. They make adjustments like nobody else the other and by the way, against Kansas City as well. They have trailed Kansas City in their last three beatings of the Chiefs, but have dominated late fourth or overtime. I believe Cincinnati has become something that doesn't get a lot of love, but it was what the Patriots with Belichick and Brady did. They were the best situational football team for about twenty years. Cincinnati is remarkably good situationally, like even better than Kansas City. A lot of its burrows accuracy, so during the off season. Remember Burrows first year and a half once against the Bears he could be turnover prone. So in the off season Cincinnati said, you know what, We're going to peel back some of the deeper routes and do more intermediate closer. Now, the Bengals give you an upside with no turnovers. This is what they did to Buffalo. So you have the most accurate passer completion percentage in league history. Borrow a team that's no longer giving you turnovers. That was Mahome's secret sauce early the best adjusting defense in the league with absolutely no pressure. These are the Chiefs. This is Mahomes, this is read. I think I like Cincinnati. Sharper square, dude. This game is a roller coaster, and you're not going to get a consensus. You're going to be sharp. You're gonna be with a bunch of sharps, and there's also going to be sharps who like Kansas City. So let me give you the reasons why I think Kansas City at minus one is the play. And this isn't as much about betting and number shopping and as we often talk about getting the best of the number, as it is about the side. This game opened Cincinnati plus three on Sunday night. I bet at Cincinnati plus three. Immediately it got bet down to pick Cincinnati plus one. I mean Cincinnati minus one, case plus one. By Tuesday afternoon it's Kansas City plus two and a half. I bet the Kansas City plus two and a half. By last night, it was back to Kansas City plus one this morning. We're recording this on Thursday afternoon. Kansas City is a one point favorite because of what we saw with my homes. You will get wise guys telling you I am back in Joe Burrow one hundred percent, and then you will get wise guys telling you I'm playing my model. My model has Kansas City as a slight favorite to pick in this game, right, So I'm sorry. Kansas City is a slight favorite to minus two in this game. So you're going to get both sides of it. It's really going to come down to how do you feel what's going to make you the least uncomfortable in this game. I wish I could give you a consensus. I can't. I can't in any good conscious like now. We talked about this in the favorites today. We did sharp calls where the wise guys will call us over the forty eight hours from Tuesday to Thursday between our two podcasts and tell us what they think of what we're saying. And a lot of the wise guys were just like, I won't bet against Joe Burrow. The guy's nineteen and one against the spread as less than a seven point underdog. So the majority of the money in here came in on the Bengals because of where the number was. And that's really what the wise guys did after that, to anybody's guess. The NFL Conference Championships this Sunday. 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Refund issued as non withdrawable psyche credit that expires in fourteen days. Restrictions suplice terms at sportsbook dot fandel dot com. Gambling problem one hundred, next step or text next step to five three three four two Arizona eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org, slash chat Connecticut one hundred abler or visit FanDuel dot com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, Jersey, in Virginia one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one hundred seven oh seven and one on seven for confidential health in Michigan on eight seven seven h Ope, n Y or techs Hope, n Y F six seven three six nine in New York, Tennessee redline eight nine nine Tennessee visits one eight hundred Gambler Dot in West Virginia. I'll tell you I did. I did say this. Four coaches left all offensive, final eight coaches seven offensive. But I do think something is important here is that all four offenses, to me, have an identity. I still think one of my biggest takeaways of this playoff Brandon Staley and Sean McDermott feel like those offenses just call plays and that we are having a revolution in this sport. And I've been talking about this ad nauseum for two years is that even with a third string quarterback, I absolutely believe the forty nine ers have an offensive identity physicality, finding an extra blocker, using multiple weapons at multiple levels, always using motion. With a third string quarterback, I felt Josh Allen was deep balls up the sideline in a snowstorm. I had somebody I had a scouting buddy in this league say, in snowstorms, the hardest thing to catch is a deep ball up a sideline. A it's hard to see what's in what's not be You're asking players to look up into the snow. Shorter routes much easier. I'm staring at the quarterback. Don't ask receivers to look up in snow. He said that sounds ridiculous. Tom Brady says snow games are great as long as there's no wind. He goes, because edge rushers a can't get their eat, and he goes, linebackers get to their positions quicker because they're sliding over the field, so they give away what they're doing with twelve seconds left before the snaff so little tiny think and NS scout says, you never want the sideline deep route snow flakes flying down. He goes, it's just hard for these guys. Cincinnati had an identity, quick, precise eight yards in, move the clock, take the first downs, and I thought Buffalo looked absolutely disoriented. And so I guess my takeaway is you start ask yourself about your football team, even if it's flawed. In twenty twenty three, do you sense that you have an offensive identity regardless if you have a great quarterback? It really matters, because I could argue the Chargers and the Bills lost to teams where they had better personnel. I feel like, I'll take it one step totally agree with your take, except I kind of don't. And I think that the Bills do have an identity. I think they have the identity of their quarterback, and I think they have the identity of being immensely talented, incredibly high strung, and a rollercoaster of emotions when things are going well. For Josh Allen, he shows it. When things are not going well, He's showing it right, pounding the turf, throwing tantrums, looking down the Bengals, the ooze confidence. And it's not just Joe Burrow, right, it's Jamar Chase, It's Joe Mixon. And they play with a physicality that is different than other teams. Jamar Chase is not the biggest guy in the world, but he runs through tacklers when he gets a screen pass. Right, Joe Mixon like he is just bullying people. Joe Burrow is unflappable, and so I think there's a huge discrepancy in personality, and teams take on the person out of their quarterback, and I think we saw that in complete relief in that Bill's Bengals game. So I do think there's personalities. I just I think that the Bills don't have a good personality, and so I think I think that's their problem right now. Yeah, they look they came off as a little rigid as well. You know McDermott comes from that, you know, a little bit of that old school play defense, punt field position. I just think it's really hard. I was talking to Kyle van Noy the other day for a Patriot player now he's with the Chargers free agent, and he said, he goes, when I came into this league, guys didn't want to go over the middle. He goes, everybody wants to go over the middle now, and it's like he goes as a as a linebacker. It's just the tight ends are more athletic and faster. They don't fear anybody, the sivers backs. He said, the game has changed in ten years. The middle of the field is just a paradise for offensive players. You and I grew up there was a term called alligator arms, and if you had one receiver Michael Urban willing to go over the middle, that was it. I can remember Philadelphia having a receiver I liked out of college. He didn't pan out Freddie Mitchell and I can remember a game specifically, and he dropped a pass and the announcer at the time, whoever it was, talked about, he's not a guy that's comfortable going over the middle and I and it just stuck in my head. That was a lot of players, a lot The way to score quickly in the NFL was a deep ball up the sideline. That's how you did it. That's how the seventies Steelers did at the Swan over the top. You didn't have these seam routes, guys going through. It didn't exist. Just not what you did. And so I think these offensive coaches they're playing chess. They can completely manipulate defenses. When Nick Saban years ago in a New York Times piece acknowledge, yeah, I can't. I can't really stop up if a quarterback can move and not a lot I can do. The rules have changed. There's just limitations on what I can do with the receivers, quarterbacks the middle of the field. When Saban's telling you that at the college level, when Tennessee's dropping forty five or fifty on Saban, at the college level where he has an athletic advantage, a personnel advantage, and I felt the margins are small. So I think coaching matters more in the NFL than it ever has. I couldn't agree more. It's interesting you say that about Freddie Mitchell because I agree with you, and he was a high draft pick, I think out of UCLA at the UCLA I liked him a lot out of college, and he was supposed to be sort of the second coming of someone who is a great downfield I lamorous receiver, couldn't go over the middle, kind of never really developed. But I'm pretty sure it was Freddie Mitchell who made that miraculous catch down the middle on like a third and twenty seven or a fourth and twenty seven from Donovant Nab during their run. I think it was what got them to the super Bowl, and like late nineties, early two thousands, I got to look it up. I'm almost positive it was, which is just ironic. Now you got guys like Deebo Samuel right, who are they live in the middle, Like as big as a linebacker. It's scarier for the linebacker the safety to hit them than it is for them to go over the middle because they're bigger and stronger and It's like when these linebackers and these safeties go into these guys and they're the ones who just fall down right and like they and Deebo will gain three or four more yards. It's amazing to see. Yeah, a box safety now like a Jamal Adams can't cover. There's there's arguments that you can't pay safeties and when you're Jamal Adams more of a hybrid safety linebacker, what's the point. And he's a unbelievably gifted player. But I can remember growing up with Kenny Easley and you know, Troy Polamalu who were thumpers and that was celebrated and it was necessary. That guy can't cover in space. Now that guy can't. You gotta be ed Read or Earl Thomas. You gotta go sideline to sideline. The thumper is a relic that because the middle of the field now everybody was speed wants to go down the middle of the field. You can't the thumper if I have you know, Seattle gave up two firsts and a tight end and a third. I think for Jamal Adams in retrospect, they got taken to the cleaners. Now they took Denver to the cleaners on Russell, but that in retrospect they gave up way too much for a box safety. Enny Easley, Steve Steve at Water kidding me, Chuckel, Oh my god, are like where I grew up in Chicago And it was Doug Plank. They literally named the greatest defense in NFL history after a hard hitting safety, right the forty six. The greatest defense in NFL history, most dominant defense in NFL history, Doug Plank was number forty six. You said something really interesting before the Bengals defense and their second half adjustments. This is not talked about enough, but I can tell you within the betting community of professional betters, you know, the Bengals have been on this incredible against the spread streak and for a lot of betters when they really started to pile on the Bengals and just decided it's Bengals or bust. DJ Reader coming off the injured list second half of the year, this team became a much more dominant team. And you see it every week. He's pushing the pocket, he's knocking down Valls, he's making the big stop on third and short against the opposing running back. This defense sixth overall in the NFL in yards, in points per play allowed, fifth in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. So if you're thinking about I don't really know which thought I want to go here, professionals have bet the under and it's been fascinating. This game opened about fifty one fifty one and a half. I bet it at fifty one and a half, got down to forty six and a half. Since Mahomes came back, it's back up to forty seven and a half. For those who are invested. Forty seven is a key number in totals, right. Key numbers are where games tend to land in twenty three, three, seven, ten in totals, forty seven, fifty one some other ones. If you can get under forty seven and a half, that's what the wise guys. That is a it's a we talked about pros Joe's all the time. All the bets are on the over all the money is on the under Chad Millman Action Network c CEO. All that's provided by Fandel Good Luck Good see Anyboddy good seeing you two man the volume, make sure to check out the Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports. Unique perspective understands behind the Rope also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts, only on the Volume podcast Network