Colin’s top takes of the week!
He starts with his reaction to an incredible Thursday Night Football game in which the Ravens beat the Bengals 35-34 and the quarterbacking “clinic” put on by Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson (3:00).
Then he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to break down the week 9 Sunday action.
They start with Saquon Barkley’s impact on the Eagles and why he’s transformed their offense (21:00) but have reservations about the Eagles in the postseason. They move on to why the Cowboys are a “bad football team” without many good players (25:00) and try to make sense of the mess that is the Chicago Bears (30:30)
Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 10 of the NFL slate.
43:15 - Bucs vs 49ers
46:00 - Cardinals vs Jets
48:30 - Broncos vs Chiefs
51:30 - Texans vs Lions
54:00 - Titans vs Chargers
56:15 - Rams vs Dolphins
59:15 - Bills vs Colts
01:00:45 - Steelers vs Commanders
01:05:30 - Saints vs Falcons
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
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Instant re action on the Baltimore win over Cincinnati thirty five to thirty four, another great Thursday night football game, one of the best games of the year. This is I had the Bengals plus six tonight for this very reason. These are great rivals, two of the best quarterbacks on display. Defenses, you know, this is why Kansas City should be favored to win the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work. In fact, let's talk about going for two. I would have gone for two. Baltimore scored on four straight drives. Defenses, you know, if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense first half a lot of energy. Guys are feeling great, they've got momentum. But eventually a bad defense gets more tired, it gets more beat up. You lose a couple of players who get banged up, and by the end of the game, you know Cincinnati's defense was gassed and they get exposed. A lot of defenses have a really good first quarter. A lot of defenses you know when they've got great energy. They're aggressive offenses, and big games can be a little tight, restrictive conservative. But over the course of a game, these are not great defenses, and both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson just lit the defenses up. I would have gone for it. First of all, I think aggressive wins. I'm usually a go for it teams that go to overtime generally historically don't play well the next week. The extra fifteen snaps or whatever it is. So I think Zach Taylor made the right call. But you know, I want to talk about something. Is one of the things the media does that really frustrates me that they don't consider how society adapts. They overreact to things. I could give you multiple examples. I was listening to a podcast recently and the guy was talking about, you know, one hundred years ago or more, you know, people thought we were going to run out of food, but you know, things happen fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts, and now more people die of obesity than starvation, right. You know, I remember when I was a kid back in the late eighties, eighty seven eighty eight, rural roads allowed you to go from fifty five to sixty five miles an hour, and now it can be faster than that. But there was this, you know, sense from the media it was car desks were going to explode, and they did increase initially on rural roads. But over the course of time, there's technology advances and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars, and society adapts and the media has to do a better job, in my opinion, of constantly overreacting stuff. I'll give you another example. During COVID college football media is like myocarditis. You can get an infection through a virus. It's going to kill college football players. Well, first of all, on average, it's treatable, and on average, the person that gets myocarditis is in their mid forties, nineteen to twenty years old, in elite shape. So again, it's the overreaction to things that either somebody writes a story in the media and then everybody jumps on board and copies it out of just apathy or laziness, or they don't do their homework, or they're just overreacting and not considering. There's just a lot of smart people out there, whether it's on the processing of food, the creation of food, whether it's manufacturing better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines. During COVID, people figure stuff out. And the reason I bring this up we had another great Thursday night game. We've had multiple great Thursday night games. This is one of the best games of the year. Minnesota and the Rams was a good Thursday night game. San Francisco in Seattle, Tampa Bay, Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game, as good as an NFC South game can get. Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins showing off is that I remember about four years ago and the media was going through a weird time. There were some cultural changes. It's when the word woke started being used a lot, and you know, it can be overused, and it was overused, but it does exist. And the media was just on this thing that Thursday Night football. It was unfair to players, and it was like I talked to NFL players and they like Thursday Night Football. You didn't hit that week. It was a real light week of practice and then you know you're off after the game until like the following Wednesday or Tuesday. So a lot of guys it's like a second by a lot of guys on the West Coast would go to Hawaii or Mexico. A lot of guys in the East Coast would go to the Bahamas. They treated it as a second bye week. And so this idea that it was too much for NFL players. These are twenty five year old world class athletes that spend six and seven figures on their bodies, They've got great training staffs around them. They're going to be okay. And I think again today, did these teams look fatigued and tired? Do they look overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game? Of course not. And again it's just I'm part of the media and I've overreacted before. But I thought what you saw tonight, well, these Thursday night games, they like to get these divisional rival games that are close. They don't want to have to travel too far on a Thursday. They want the game to be regional or divisional, and these this was a perfect Thursday night game. Great quarterback play, two teams that know each other to you know, I mean, I think Zach Taytor is a smart, clever offensive coach, and I think John Harbaugh's great and the teams. You know, clearly Baltimore looked a little off early, but you know, they adapt their pro athletes. I thought it was a classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow having to overcome a terrible defense. And I mean Baltimore's isn't great either, but through the years it has been pretty consistently solid. Now the Ravens have really poured more money into their offense, Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley. They just went and got Deontay Johnson. So they're pouring more of the money in offense, which is where NFL teams should spend their money. But I never worry about Baltimore being cheap or trying to save a nickel here or there, or Cincinnati. That's the Brown family's history. So I just feel like, you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA. He's not going to demand a trade. But I do think he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting up numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had two hundred and fifty yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they did everything they could possibly do. I thought I thought there was a penalty obviously in the two point conversion that was un called not called, which is unfortunate, and I you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen, when you give up the points in the yards that Cincinnati did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls, and I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL, at the end the games, officials are best served swallowing the whistle. I mean, one of the things I noticed in the NFL, and I'm sure you've noticed this is over the course of the last eight to ten to twelve years, the amount of contact that is allowed on the perimeter is insane. You could call pass interference on every play. And I think maybe it's the Belicheckian influence on the sport, where you know, the Patriots just they were physical, they grabbed, they touched, they'd wear the same colored gloves as the team they were playing's uniform, and they were just it was constant conflict and touching. You're not going to call pass the interference on every play. And so the reality over time it's been normalized on the edges that you just you got to grab. Now you can't put your arm around a guy, but you can call pass interference constantly in this league. And they and Baltimore was flagged for it tonight several times. Personal fouls and pass interference on a play like that. Good luck on the road getting that call. And again, it's not like Cincinnati played flawless football. Their defense was a mess. They're tackling was bad. I do love this about Lamar Jackson and I've said this before and I'll say it again. The guy was two hundred and ninety yards four touchdowns, trailed by fourteen and the third. One of the things I love about Lamar, and this is certainly the case with a Josh Allen and to Patrick Mahomes, you just don't know when they're trailing. If you watch them play. They don't play any different when they're trailing them when they're leading. And I've always thought the line in this league, the difference between the haves and the have nuts in quarterback play is the average quarterbacks in this league press when they're behind, when you know they have to throw. A Geno Smith a good player, but they don't feel the same. You're watching Lamar Jackson down by fourteen and half in the third quarter. Excuse me, it doesn't matter. You can't tell he doesn't care, totally unaffected, doesn't change his body language, his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such a special, all time athlete. And this nonsense that he's not a pocket quarterback, which thankfully that's people have moved away from that. He's exceptional, really good job too. He's got a little bit of a different throwing style, so did Philip Rivers. You know, some guys just have a little bit of a different you know, Justin Herbert looks like he could be the NFL logo. He's got that perfect stance, you know, had like Jerry West was the NBA logo, the late Jerry West that Justin Herbert. If the NFL ever did a player logo, it would be a quarterback and Justin Herbert literally could be the logo. He's got the perfect long stride. But a lot of these guys have kind of different deliveries. Aaron Rodgers sometimes throws off his he's not even on the ground. So Lamar's got a little bit of a different style. It's a little bit more of a flip. I think Kyler Murray's got one of the prettiest throws throwing motions in the league. But it just works, and he has an ability. Lamar has an ability to. I think it's body confidence that he can stare all over the field and then just in a quarter second suddenly look over to the sideline where they camp a guy and make a beautiful throw of eight to twelve yards. He's just he's really got a sense of composure and self awareness and accuracy, and you know, he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrow product clinic tonight. It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks. And again, these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic. And the only thing I don't like about Thursday night football two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL won't play Sunday. And that's the downside to you know, if you do Thursday night football and you do Monday night football, So you know, Monday night Tua and Matt Stafford are playing, and Thursday night it's Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. So four of probably the twelve best quarterbacks in the league are not playing Sunday. You know, So you know, I can only take so much. Will Levis, Sorry, it's that's the only knock to me on these Thursday night football games. Seven years ago, these games six years ago, the games were awful. I mean it was like you felt like you were getting Jacksonville and Steeters were wearing bumblebee uniforms. Now they you know, they're putting up an almost every Thursday night football game this year. I think it's the best Thursday night schedule. You've got a star quarterback tonight you had two and and if you didn't enjoy that, I don't you know. I like defense occasionally, but if you didn't enjoy that, like it's not your it's not your sport, that was just great. Great. Also had Cincinnati plus six. Didn't know if I was going to win that at one point. But I don't think less of Baltimore because it's close. These division rival games. You get four, five six points. If you have a capable quarterback in a division rivalry game, take the points. Joe Burrow is one of the I think he's five and zero this year as a as an underdog against the spread on the road this year, Joe Burrows A he's a great He's now seventeen and three. Is Joe Burrow as a three point or more underdog as an NFL quarterback seventeen and three. Now the Emirates NBA Cup is here. You could win big getting in on the action at DraftKings Sports Book. It's cool, official sports betting partner of the NBA. All thirty teams split into six groups every Tuesday and Friday, playing for the right to advance in a single elimination in season tourney. It was great last year, culminating in the NBA Cup Championship in Vegas. 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All right, John Middlecoff, It's time for our hour plus on a Sunday. He is the former NFL scout for the Philadelphia Eagles Three and Out podcast. Let's start with a team you're near and dear to the Philadelphia Eagles. So they did it on the ground, in the air. They beat the Jags twenty eight to twenty three, although Jacksonville with a massive late game comeback, Trevor Lawrence one got a little loose Onnomy through a pick in the end zone. You know, my takeaway on this is, I'll go back to saying this, Jalen's not making the mistakes and Barkley, Saquon Barkley's absolutely With Christian McCaffrey not playing yet, Barkley's the best running back in the league. And I think what Jalen hurts as they win today, My take is they've gotten him out of the position where I don't feel like he's ad libbing or out of control like I thought Jordan loved today for the Packers was out of control multiple times. I kind of think Philadelphia's figured out kind of the way to use Allen. What do you see?
Well, I think Saquan's definitely changed their team. I mean he's been him and Derrick Henry you talk about additions this offseason, those two guys. I mean, Dereck Henry was probably a Hall of Fame player before this. Now he cemented himself. I mean, there's no one's ever questioned Saquan's talent. I mean, what would Penn State do to have that guy right now on their team? I mean, they did have an offensive weapon, but to me, I mean, the only reason that game was close was Sirianni and Kellen. I'm not quite sure what was going on there with some of the play calling. Yeah, they instead of kicking a field goal, I didn't get that, decided not to do the tush push and they roll him out and he's got nowhere to go. Like right now, their offense, I mean AJ Brown, which is a pretty big deal. Not maybe in this game, but I guess they play the Cowboys next week, so not in that game either, but in two weeks against Washington.
His presence for them to beat really good teams as a must have.
But when you're playing a team like today, DeVante Smith what a draft pick. I mean, I thought, wait, this guy's gonna be one hundred and seventy five pounds.
I don't think he would last in this league.
How about his one handed touchdown? Oh my god, so you ad Saquon to him? I mean the guy that had the game winning interception to Kobe Dean. I mean, they have a lot of young defensive players. The last couple of weeks, Nolan Smith has been all over the quarterback like I trust Vic Fangio. To me, it just gets down to Sirianni who if they had lost today, Colin to Doug Peterson and the Jags who they had fired, do you know, I mean Embiid would have been let off the hook because it would have been a Siria You cannot lose that game. And it got weird obviously the freak Saquon fumble, But that's a little too close for comfort given how well their top guys were playing.
Oh yeah, I mean Barkley was great. Jalen went like eighteen to twenty four, two hundred and thirty yards. No, you know, no interceptions there. The receivers that were on the field were excellent. They actually, I mean they they had four hundred and fifty plus yards of offense six point five yards per play. They were great on third down. They dominate time of possession, and you look up and you're like, you're at home and it's twenty eight twenty three.
It's they were up twenty two. Nothing right.
It looked like they were gonna blow him out forty to ten or something.
Yeah.
I just feel like I kind of feel like this is the rare instance. And I felt this a couple of years ago with Detroit. But I've come to terms with Ben Johnson, the coordinator for the Lions. I didn't trust. I really didn't trust Dan Campbell.
I do now.
I think he has grown. I think he's a little less emotional now. I also think he realizes he's no longer hunting, he's being hunted. They're the favorite. I think he I think like today they got a lead, they got real smart, they got real conservative. It was really really smart Lions football. I feel like Siriani's like Dan Campbell a couple of years ago. He's still trying to prove himself. I want to show you guys how smart I am. And then when you make mistakes like yelling at the crowd and get your hands slapped by the owners, then you kind of double down on I want to show how smart I am. And there I just think with Dan Campbell I've seen growth. I do think he's a better, more mature coach today. And with Siriani, I think they're gonna get to the playoffs, and I think they're gonna have all these weapons and outplay people, and I think they're gonna lose to a really smart, efficient team. Atlanta beats the Cowboys twenty seven to twenty one. So if you didn't watch this game, I could sum it up with the multiple fall starts, the nine penalties for Dallas, too many men on the field, and a fourth down. Atlanta basically got out rushed, out passed. But Dallas was so bad on fourth down, so many pedalties, so inefficient, and Kirk Cousins just go out, goes out nineteen and twenty four, doesn't make any big mistakes. Like Atlanta's not physically impressive, but Atlanta's really efficient because they brought Kirk Cousins in, who just doesn't make a lot of mistakes. He gets you in and out of plays. When I watched Dallas today, Mike McCary, Mike McCarthy's frustration with you. I mean, when you have Dak Prescott, they're a veteran team, you can't have false starts, illegal motions like it feels like to me, that is so much on the quarterback. Now he left and Cooper Rush came in. But I you know, I had said before the year, this was one of my I guess I'm actually wrong on this. I said Dallas won't make the playoffs. It'll be Philadelphia and Washington in that division. It will begin a slight regression. John. They may be a bottom four team in the league. And I'm dead serious. They're they're they're better than the Raiders because of dak uh Hell and Cooper Rush. I think they're better than Carolina, probably better than New Orleans now they weren't in Week two. Dallas is a bad football team without a lot of good players.
Yeah. I thought coming into this week we were gonna learn, like, are they just going to end up sucking all season and being a five or six win team or they gonna have a little heart and battle and you know, at the end of the year be eight to nine. But if shown some metal throughout the year, I think they're headed toward five or six wins now. Yeah, and today didn't it Simbal Eyes before the game even kicked off, they less they left Zeke back at home Yeah, all I had heard from Cowboys people is listen, we know he doesn't have as much, but the leadership, yeah, the camaraderie, him and Dak are close. And then these stories about he never shows up on time, he's disgruntled.
It's like, well, then Whysey on the team?
And is that a little bit I'm not putting this all on Dak, but isn't that Dak's one of his best friends? Like, so what do we got going on there? And then as the game goes on today it was a reflection of they don't have that much talent. Oh how often today Jesus even on like just random innocuous plays Bijon in space out in the flat and three guys would whiff and he'd get eight yards. That should have been one.
Listen, John, on a fourth and one, they have so little talent in the backfield. On a fourth and one, they had to use deception on a quick on a like a jet sweep to CD lamb. Now, yeah, it worked about twenty minutes later, same play. But on a fourth and one with a very quarterback Zach Martin, one of the great guards ever, they had to get clever and tricky. They have no run game. One of the easiest predictions anybody could have made going into this season, if Dallas would have the worst running back room in the league. I mean, we watched Zeke in New England. He can't he's done, it's over. They made no moves, they they it's it's remarkable. Now, I'm not saying Derek Henry would be as good as we've talked about in Dallas. As Baltimore, you start looking at it. I've said before the season, if Ceedee Lamb twisted an ankle, this is the worst offense in the league. I mean, it's it's it's I watched them today and I'm like, they it was just all a cotton candy yards. I mean, Atlanta was so much smarter, more efficient, good on third down.
I was.
I was playing golf the other day with a diehard cowboy fan. This guy's been to countless games over the last thirty years, and I asked him, do you think Dak Prescott's better than Tony Romo? And you were always one of Tony's biggest defenders. Yeah, And he's said, you know, I would have told you four or five years ago, yes, but at this point in time, you can't watch these games up until Tony's back went.
He was a more dynamic absolutely, absolutely, and in.
Twenty one, twenty two, and even last year, those teams were so good. I mean in twenty one and twenty two the Cowboys were really good.
I mean they had a.
Home playoff game, they were toe to toe with the Niners in the second round, and they're I mean, Dak didn't just have one bad play, like he.
Was atrocious through most of those games.
So I think, listen, this is not his fault, you know, in terms of the pie chart one if they go six or seven or maybe five wins, but he has kind of crumbled like he has not been an elevator, talk about trailers and tractors, clear where he falls. And honestly, today was just an embarrassing day for the organization. Yeah, I mean I think Mike's hands were on it, Jerry's hands were on it. Because the Zeke thing to me symbolizes I thought that moment. I thought the Bears benching the guy for like two series like this is we're not little league or high school, We're not teaching life lessons.
You either leave him at home, yeah.
And make him in active to show like this will never be tolerated, or you just start him like this is a business. You know, we're trying to win or lose.
I got nope.
I would have made him inactive to show everyone just like the Cowboys did. Zeke, you're not showing up. But there's no middle ground. This isn't high school football where it's like you're gonna sit out the first series or two like that.
That to me is so dumb.
I mean, that's that's embarrassing at the highest level. It's just that's why you know, certain teams lose, and obviously the same teams consistently win over and over.
A game today that I thought was important and symbolic, Arizona crushes the Bears twenty nine to nine. Kyler Murray barely had to throw. There was a lot of I mean, they led twenty nine, twenty one to nine and a half. I think the bigger story is Caleb Williams was ineffective. The offensive line was overwhelmed. The offensive line. I've talked about this so many times, John, defensive coaches and offensive lines are a problem. The Bears. Klob's been out played badly by Kyler Murray and Jaden Daniels. The last two weeks, he's dancing around in the back getting sacked by Arizona offensive lines gotten worse. And I watched today there was a safety on the Bears at one point as they lost twenty nine to nine. There wasn't a There wasn't once we got to the second quarter. There wasn't a minute I thought Chicago could win. I think Caleb is clearly Even though bow Knicks got rolled today, Baltimore at homes much better. That was one of the easiest bets of the year. Taking the Ravens minus eight to nine, bow Knicks looks like he's got it to earned control. I mean there's I think he really looks like for the personnel they have, obviously Jade.
He actually didn't play terribly. No, no, no, he wasn't.
He just I mean, they don't have seven guys who would start for the Ravens. They have Patrick Certan, maybe a safety.
That's about it.
But when I look at Caleb right now, they average three point four yards of play. It is screaming to get rid of Matti Eberflus. I mean, I just a whole game, I'm like this, it just doesn't work. He doesn't have the right coordinator. It's a mess in Chicago.
Now, Well, if I had told you by the middle of the season that if the Bears called up the Washington Commanders and said before the season and said, would you trade Jaden Daniels straight up for Caleb Williams, and the Commanders would laugh at them and hang up the phone, you would have said the Bears have serious issues. Because two things can be true. Today was an embarrassing day for Eberflus, but so was last week, and so was this offseason when it was pretty clear you're putting this guy into a lame duck situation. This is not a McCarthy that at least listen. I know he's under his last year, but he has a long resume of success, and he coaches the quarterback who you're going to pay two hundred million dollars to.
This is a head coach, a he's a good defensive coach, never.
Won anything, and you have no faith that he's going to do it, and now you have to fire him a year in.
But I think the bigger picture you see it with Trevor Lawrence.
I mean, they brought in Doug and this is just not going well for him relative to hype. These things can snowball and get out of hand fast, and you invested, Actually you didn't because you made the trade, but you got this player. You chose him over these other players, specifically Jayden, who again long way to go. I mean ideally they both have fifteen year careers. Jayden Daniels is currently one of the best players in the NFL, no question like he's one of the best players in the NFL.
It looks totally under control.
And Caleb looks like a mid round pick forced to start because a quarterback got injured in the preseason.
He makes some plays, but he misses a lot of stuff that Listen, we saw.
Him making college and this gets back to people that were questioning him. He can freelance and get a little willy nilly, and that doesn't really work in the NFL, and you see him just get peppered. He's not comfortable in the pocket. The coaching staff's terrible. I do think the Tyreek Stevenson benching was just a joke. And if I'm Eberflus, I wouldn't want him in active. I'd want to just start them. But if you're Ryan Poles, you're not going anywhere. You want to show all these other guys that, like the standards are high, they're in no man's land, right, they really are, And I doubt they would fire I mean, that's a fireable game. I don't expect the Bears to fire him. But like these last two weeks, I mean they were thoroughly outplayed the week before too right, it was you know, I know, the Hail Mary, but they were worked that game, like we know, before they even get to the tough stretch of their season, Like this ain't a playoff team like this team, I mean Arizona, that to me is like a fringe wild card team. Just beat the living piss out of them. I just can't take the Bear seriously anymore.
No, and this was supposed to be the two game stretch Arizona and New England next where they had a shot right to make up some before they go into Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco, Green Bay. You know, I think there's I've almost said there's one or two in football that are undervalued, and yet there are things we know are valuable. I think a great offensive coordinator or great offensive coach, you're better on third down, you're better on offensive line. You're better at drafting offensive personnel. I mean, the Rams just figure out ways to mix and match their offensive line. They're in a wild one with the Seahawks today, but they're still you know, ham an egg and in the interior of the offensive line. These defensive coaches. Chicago's offensive line last year felt like an ascending group. You had your tackles a little soft in the middle. It is a mess with Caleb Williams mobility, it's a mess today. So I just think you get to a point where you I don't think people understand the difference between a really smart offensive coach and an average defensive coach. It is a touchdown to ten point difference a game.
I do think to that moment last week on the Hail Mary was reflective of their head coach, right, because let's take a couple of top defensive coaches, right Tomlin John Harbaugh especial teams guy, but he also the dB guy. You could never envision that play with that player happening, taunting the crowd like that. That just would never happen with the Ravens and Steelers in that moment. So to me, that reflected let alone, like he's been pretty good on defense. Today he loses his best defensive player. James Connor looked like Walter.
Payton against him.
I mean it was like, you guys are that dependent on one guy. And offensively, I always talk about like defensive guys know nothing about offense, right, I mean, they know how to stop offenses, but they don't know. They're not calling the plays, they're not in their coaching.
Brady Brady Brady made fun of Belichick not even understanding the terminology of offense.
Yeah, it's just it's so the Bears.
Honestly, this goes back to what ten months ago, eleven months ago, when they knew and they tried to have their cake and eat it too and keep their fingers crossed. And now they're gonna have to fire this guy, and it sets the whole clock off when they could have just started at scratch. Maybe Ben Johnson would have been interested, Maybe they could have hired v Abel and just had a fresh runway. Now you derail everything because one thing you would say is like, well, eberflu is kind of good on defense, so now you get a new guy. Just it just you know, upsets the Apple card which needed upsetting in January. I mean, and today was Today was really bad because coming off that loss, I thought two teams had huge bounce. Like to me, the Ravens of last year blow the team out, and they did today.
So it's like, okay, you know the.
Browns game, weird Outliar Jamis got hot, throw that away.
The Ravens are the real deal.
And the Bears like, okay, if this is gonna be a wildcard team, they come into Arizona.
Even if it's tight, Arizona's not easy. You win the game.
A lot of I live out here, I would imagine that were half the stadium was Bears fans.
Yeah, so it's a big deal for them. And they, like you said, that game was over before it even started. They got shellacked.
All right. I am feeling good about my picks this week. I've had a couple of weeks I like have. Also, three of the last four weeks had good college bets. By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. You don't get a freebie very often, but I feel like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay Short Week, all beat up against the Niners, team off of bye in a bad mood. Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean all the things you'd want short week over time, other team off of bye. This feels like the rare thank you draft Kings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some jet Skis tonight, Sharper square, totally sharp.
The wise guys have loved this one. It was at five and a half, got up to six, got up to six and a half. Now it's settled in around six. I will not be surprised if this gets up to six and a half. What's interesting about this game is, you know, we talk all the time about the pro joe split, right, the professionals on one side, the amateurs on another. Normally, what you get is the Joe's the amateurs like the big fancy favorite. In this case, the jos have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have actually been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season, And because they look so good in overtime against the Chiefs and the Niners have struggled, the Joe's have been coming in on the Bucks and the wise guys. For your point, they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like the Niners coming off a bye. They like having to fade the Bucks traveling back home in a short week after overtime to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team. And there's a couple of trends that are worth looking at and a couple of matchups that are worth looking at. Number One, the past decade, favorites on the road off of a bye sixty percent against the spread. Favorites of five and a half or more off a by on the road seventy percent against the spread. What that tells you is that when a team is good and they're off the by and they go on the road in their favorites, they tend to overperform. And then you've got the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are terrible against the run, and if Christian McCaffrey is back, all of a sudden, you've got a much bigger advantage against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Whise guys are with you, Simon, Simon, Whise guys are with you, Colin. I was thinking about my bff Simon one hundred on the Niners.
Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals, play now. Usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would put me in a good mood. But I think extra time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know, dynamic offenses in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach, they're on their second play caller. There is no proof that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona at home now getting a point. I think people, I know what you're thinking it. People are getting really high on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara. They got really good offensive players, and this is getting to the point in the year when defensive players. I mean, the Jets defense isn't that good. It's just not that good. I'm gonna take Arizona plus one Sharper square, all.
Right, Well it's square. And let's not use the Niners win as a barometer of what this team is, right, because the Niners in that game, they they didn't have a kicker. They literally could not kick a field goal. When they were in the red zone, they had to keep running it. And one of those times, even though they were ahead, there running back fumbled the ball and it sent them the Cardinals towards a win in which they had about a five percent chance of winning the game. In that exact moment, the Cardinals have won three in a row. They're in first place in the AFC West, ahead of the Rams, ahead of the Seahawks, ahead of the Niners. There is a lot of glow on this team right now, and it is a team to its credit, it has come back from double digit downs in a couple of games, and then it destroyed a Bear's team, which you and I both know like they were primed to be destroyed. I know, I listened to your show. I know how you feel about Ibra Flus, I know the stat you've been drumming about him on the road. I agree with you as a Bears fan, terrible coach. That was the exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant, right the Jets with a mini bi getting healthier. No pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I don't mean shoulders. I mean the Cardinals cannot get any pressure. They are the worst in the league. That is Taylor made for Aaron Rodgers to bring this team back down to earth. The wise guys, like the Jets. The line has moved. The Jets were underdogs the Jets are now favorites.
Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I like the Broncos seven and a half plus seven and a half against the Chiefs. So Kansas City short week over time. Kansas City is not a team that blows people out. Denver, meanwhile, faced what teams do and they realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and play an angry Ravens team. They hammered last year, the Niners, the Lions like teams that were healthy at the time. Miami going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. You should be just like not any other place in the league, nobody. No team humiliates more teams then Baltimore in a bad mood at home. It doesn't matter San Francisco. I mean McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best coach game of the year. When they lost at Baltimore, I thought that was when I bought the Rams. It's like, oh, they didn't get crushed, Okay, so don't just wipe that away. Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City's not a great team. Division rivals. One team's humiliated. One team on a short weekend overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine. I still like denverse seven and a half sharper square.
It was a gift at nine, It was a gift at nine and a half, at nine, at eight and a half, at eight, seven and a half, that's where you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys are going to be on a huge and in this case seven is huge division road underdog. Those ten to two favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog the Chiefs. When Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more, he has a losing record against the spread. They're not the kind of team. And I know you've talked about this as well. They are not a blow them out team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelce getting more out of the flow, and them understanding who they are offensively now, but they are not there yet. And in this fourteen game win streak, they're beating teams by five or six points a game, right so they are not the kind of team, and especially in the second half, they slow it down. They get leads in the first half and then they slow it down in the second half. The Broncos have a great defense, and you can say everything you just said about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well. They went on the road, they got throttled. The first play of the game, bo Nix throws an interception off of rever receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong for them the rest of the day. But this is a team that continues to grind and play to the whistle and play to the end of the game. I know there's a cliches, but in this case they're true because Bonnicks is being treated as if he's a third or fourth year quarterback, not a first year quarterback. So the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in this game and keep the back door open, and the Chiefs will allow them to keep the back door open. Also, one thing I would say past twenty years, teams that are off of a twenty plus blowout loss, which the Broncos are fifty against spread, So.
There are times when I just don't think teams are going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half Texans at home against the Lions, and Detroit has this is not a game that you have circled as a Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know, in division teams. This is kind of one of those weird Hey, we got to go on the road and play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit and think, she's this is like playing the Chiefs. This is we got to get right three and a half. I think you come out of a divisional game with green Bay really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better, but the better team doesn't know us win. Sometimes it's the home team where you feel like there's real urgency to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three and a half here Sharper square.
Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to three and a half, and I think that the wise guys are with you here. But three will be the tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this. The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is in their offensive line and for lack of a better term, physical travels in football right, running backs can have a bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better outdoors than indoors offensive lines. All you're doing is lining up across the guy in front of you and beating him up, and the Lions do that better than any offensive line in the league. I think that is why you know last week, all the professional betters were all over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the Lions are going to be outside Jared Goff has a bulky ankle. This is the spot where you're going to fade a team that everybody had been making money on, even as big favorites, because they thought. We thought we'd see the letdown spot in a really physical game. Didn't happen like the physical travel. So I do worry about the Texans being able to out physical the Lions, especially. We don't know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in that Jets game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out, the Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the Jets took that game over. So it is it's the right side. The wise guys are playing it. It's not my favorite, though.
Here's a game where I understand the hook and so people won't bet this side. But there are teams that I think get healthy or get right, and the market's not quite adjusted. I think the Chargers are going to be a problem this point forward. When you look at that receiving cor last week and all of a sudden you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now, it's actually okay. With the development of Quinton Johnston, Laddin, McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, JK. Dobbins, you're like, oh shit, they're kind of right now. I think they're going to start reeling off some kind of punishing dominant wins Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers, even at seven and a half, are a little undervalued, I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans for the record. When we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools gold like they can hang bad teams. I've seen them overwhelmed against well coached teams. I know it's square. Chargers seven and a half, what say you.
Yeah, it's totally square. The only side to take here is the Titans. Either don't bet it, or take the Titans. I'm not betting this game. I'm a huge Chargers backer. Last week, everybody was saying the Browns are cresting. You gotta get the Browns right now. Jamis is back and I looked at that game and we talked about this on the Favorites several times because it made no sense to me. The Chargers were two point favorites on the road, and if you break down that handicap, Chargers should have been two point favorites on the road. They have the better quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. They have a really good physical offensive line. We just talked about the Lions. I see the Chargers built in the same mold as the Lions as we build the next twelve twenty fourth threety six months with what Horriba was trying to do there. I love this Chargers team. I think seven and a half points is too high. There's too much quirkiness that can come into play in these games when the number is that high and there's a hook involved.
Okay, here's a game. And I hate to do this because I really really liked the Rams and their young defense a lot. It was plus two and a half, and I really liked Miami at two and a half. Now it's down to one, so I think it won. I would take the Rams, but there's a game every week where I'm like, tell me what to bet. I really, I think the Rams are so talented defensively. Defensively, they have not missed on a draft pick, a defensive draft pick in two years. One of their safeties is an undrafted rookie from Tennessee the volunteers. Heiss four picks. The other kid from Miami is a pick six kid. I mean like they're hitting on everybody, verse the two Florida State guys young, I mean everyone. They all Kobe Turner from Wake Forest, they all are good. They're all better than their draft spot. I want to take the Rams so bad, but that numbers moving around, it tells me the Sharps were on Miami, right.
The wise guys have been all over Miami. And I'll tell you know you and I but we did our Sunday show at ESPN. We always had a pick where we went against the wise guys and we called it the executive decision, and you just nailed the game. That is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams. I feel like the Rams. I bet the Rams last week as favorites against the Seahawks, a miracle cover. But Matthew Stafford. There are quarterbacks in the NFL you think about, Okay, it's the end of the game. I need this guy to get me the cover, or I don't want to be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people that you don't want to be against. I don't want to be against Matthew Stafford. Ever, if I can get Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team was won three in a row. You mentioned verse Randon Fisk, the other guy from Florida State. He had a great game last week. And don't forget Sean McVay, who I think is brilliant. Obviously, it's not like you know, I'm revealing a secret. His offense as magical as it is, as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Poka Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around running back in the league right now. And that Miami Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming. I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking. I'm with you, I don't see it. I don't see why the Wise guys are on the Dolphins. If you want to exact decision this, I'm with you one hundred percent.
Okay, you know I love the number four Bills minus four at the Colts. You know, if this is a division game, it's different. I do worry about this. Quarterbacks off concussions. Tua was better in the second game. Remember the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay, better in the second game. Joe Flacco first game pretty ugly. Now it's the second game, so it tells me you're not the people now look at Buffalo and they look at the Colts and think Flacco's old and washed. No old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours. I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really really one of the better sharp sides of the week.
Sharper square, huge sharp side this week. It was at four and a half for a hot minute, went to four. A lot of three and a half's out there now. The Wise guys have been piling in on the Colts. Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys like the Colts. For one, it's a by Low sell high. The Bills are seven to two. They just came off of a huge, high profile win sixty one yard field goal Division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up the first week in November, huge huge cell high situation. The Colts, big deal Joe Flacco starting for Anthony Richardson. That gives us a better chance to win. They go into Minnesota in primetime, they can't even get past the twenty yard line, right, they cannot score. So all of a sudden, you've got to buy low. So that's one scenario in which the wise guys feel like it's overinflated because of what happened in national television for the Cults. And then you got to look, the Colts have a dominant run blocking unit that is to the detriment of the Bills rush defense. So in a lot of different metrics, whether it's yards per play, yards are expected points on the rush, total rushes of ten plus yards, which is sort of an explosive metric, the Cults are top five the Bills are not very good defending against the run, so there is an advantage there, and the Cults rush defense has been getting much better. We saw that against the Vikings with Grover Stewart and Brentson Buckner. So there is an opportunity here against what is the strength of the Bills defense or offense to stop them. So the Wise Guys are huge, huge fans of the culture.
And every week there's a game I miss it's usually egregiously bad to watch. Chad Millman, co host of the favor it's all odds provided by DraftKings. What's the game I missed? It doesn't include Jacksonville.
Well it doesn't this week. Normally it would, but you know, with Mac Jones playing, I will say, like the line jumped from about four to seven seven and a half. I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most people think Mac Jones is. So I'm not even gonna ask you to do anything with that game. I will say, the Wise guys have been on the Giants against the Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask you to talk about that game. I'm a little surprised, like you brought up all the games that are most interesting to me.
One game.
There's two games we didn't discuss. One is a little high profile. I'm surprised you to bring it up, which is the Steelers in the Commoner.
So every week there's a game I want to watch. I just want to watch it. I think it's a fascinating game. There's an argument to be made the Steelers have the best defense in the league. They've really figured out, by the way, how to use Russell Wilson, and like Greg Cosell told me today, I said, it reminds me a little of the Seattle Seahawks power run, defensive culture one one, two, good weapons, a tough place to play at home. He goes, But that's exactly what the video tells you. It's a poor man Seahawks team. I kind of like Pittsburgh here, right, getting points, Yes.
You do. What's scary is you can't get to three anymore, right because it was at three. When it got to three, guys, they immediately bet the three and it went down to two and a half. And it's just sort of sitting at two and a half. I would still play the two and a half. Two is a key number in the NFL. Now with all the extra points being missed or teams going for two more often, so I wouldn't be afraid of the two and a half. But this is really the best defense. You just noted that Jayden Daniels has faced from two defensive ends who can really rush the passer, and because Alex Highsmith was out for most of October, their rush metrics are not as high as they normally are. But he's been back and this is really a stellar defense. It's also a Row rob Mike tomlinst you got Mike Tomlin the.
Best underdog coach. Burrow is the best underdog quarterback I believe, and I believe Tomlin getting two and a half points here against Washington's the best underdog coach.
Colin.
The numbers back you up. Mike Tomlin sixty percent against spread as a dog on the road in his career. He is the most profitable coach as an underdog against the spread this generation in the history of data that we have tracking all this stuff going back about twenty years. The most profitable coach in this situation also twenty five and five straight up against rookie QBS. Everyone is looking for the moment to sell the Commanders because they've been extraordinarily good. The Steelers off of with these two defensive ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach. Might be the time to do it, But I didn't give you the gross game. Can I interest you in the New Orleans Saints plus three and a half against the Atlanta Fountains?
No, you can't at all.
Yes, we are playing. We are playing the dead cat bounce. We have a team that has a new coach that got rid of the guy who, by all accounts, and we've been hearing this for more than a year, they hated Dennis.
How many points.
They've been out on Dennis Auten. They're getting three and a half Saints. They were here. Here's the thing, the Saints are getting three and a half. They were getting four. It's down to three and a half. So you know, the wise guys are on them because the public is betting the Falcons. So we got a pro Joe split here. This team played so badly last week. The most popular player, Cam Jordan apologized on Twitter. And if you look at the games Derek Carters started, Look, they've lost seven in a row for those games with Derek Carr. One of those games Kansas City. They lost twenty six to thirteen, but it was closer than the score the other The other three games they were by three points, two points in one point, including one of these games against Atlanta. So I know, like the receivers are out. They just traded Latimore to Marshall Lattimore the cornerback to the Commanders. But this is the spot to back the Saints. You just got to hold your nose and do it. You might not bet them again the rest of the year. It's like we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came in because you knew there'd be some kind of change. Derek Carr second game back, new coach.
This is it.
There's the whole ball of wax So and this Atlanta team had generally been mediocre. Like they're not blowing teams out, they're getting really lucky. It's it's a situation where the number is a little bit in f because the Falcons have been doing so well and the public sentiment on the Saints is so low, so the wise guys are on the Saints.
And the Marcus Lattimore trade, he wasn't playing anyway, so it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used like pro bowl level corner. He's been struggling. He's got a hamstring issue. Yeah, so much stuff.
Ride with it.
Do it? Do it? Come on.
The volume.
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