Conservative writer Kevin Williamson — National Correspondent for The Dispatch and one of the sharpest voices on the right — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging and characteristically blunt conversation about Trump's Iran disaster, the collapse of the political parties, and what kind of country America is becoming. Williamson argues Trump made a colossal mistake getting into the Iran war and there's now no way out without national humiliation: the goals of the conflict have constantly been changing, and Trump effectively told the Iranians where his political weaknesses were and they called his bluff. He notes the absurdity of America blockading the Strait specifically because we're mad that it's been blockaded, observes that the firing hasn't actually ceased despite the supposed ceasefire, and offers a withering verdict on the president himself: "Trump is just not a smart guy, he's an insult artist," surrounded by people who don't have the nation's interests in mind. They explore whether China could end up being the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran, whether a nuclear Iran could benefit Putin (would he actually sell them one?), and notes the Gulf states are tired of this. He warns that securing the Strait of Hormuz requires ground troops Trump is too afraid to commit, that the Iranian regime is nothing like Venezuela's and won't fold, and that Trump never prepared the country for pain at the pump.

The conversation broadens into Williamson's structural diagnosis of American politics, and his unsentimental view of where this is all headed. He argues that politics has become like religion, especially for the most religious, which is why Trump's coalition won't fracture even when farmers are being destroyed by Trump's own policies and still vote for him. He says Trump's declining popularity isn't restraining his decision-making at all, that Republicans are already assuming a midterm wipeout, and that Trump will be impeached if Democrats take the House — and should be — though he acknowledges it may not be the smartest political move. They dig into whether both American parties are at genuine risk of collapse, arguing their decline has been a huge loss for the country: celebrity and social media have filled the vacuum, with communication ability now mattering more than actual governing competence. He half-jokes that Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to be, dismisses the idea that Stephen Colbert could carry a progressive banner, and closes with a genuinely dark prediction: America is losing its identity, may simply be too rich for its own good, and is heading for a low so bad that most Americans aren't prepared for it.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Kevin Williamson (The Dispatch) joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Trump made a colossal mistake with Iran war

01:45 We can’t get out of Iran war without being humiliated

03:00 The goals of the war have constantly been changing

04:30 Iran can’t win a battle with the U.S. but its45 sphere of influence is bigger

06:00 Trump told the Iranians what his weaknesses are, they called his bluff

07:00 The firing has not ceased, there’s no actual ceasefire

07:30 We’re blockading a Strait because we’re mad it’s blockaded…

08:30 Trump is just not a smart guy, he’s an insult artist

09:15 The people around Trump don’t have the nation's interests in mind

10:00 Rubio looks good because the people around Trump are so bad

12:00 Will China be the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran?

13:00 Iran having a nuke could benefit Putin, would he sell them one?

14:30 Trump didn’t prepare the country for pain at the pump

15:45 We could really use our European allies that we spurned

16:30 Unclear if Iran would accept a JCPOA style deal now

19:30 50 years after the revolution, Iranian regime hasn’t changed priorities

21:00 The gulf states have influence over Trump and they’re tired of this

23:15 Gulf states probably assumed Trump would go for regime change

24:30 The Iranian regime is nothing like the regime in Venezuela

26:00 The rural vs urban divide leads to failed democratic states 

27:45 Trump’s declining popularity isn’t restraining his decision making

28:45 Republicans are already assuming a wipeout in the midterms

29:15 Trump will be impeached with a Dem majority in the house, and should be

30:00 Impeaching Trump may not be best option politically, but the right thing to do

32:30 Securing the Strait requires ground troops, which is terrible politics

33:15 Trump is a coward, and afraid of the risk of using ground troops

35:00 Trump doesn’t want to get into an open ended occupation of Iran

35:30 Unlikely that Trump’s coalition fractures, it’s a personality cult

36:45 Farmers are being destroyed by Trump, yet many still support him

38:00 Politics has become like religion, especially to the most religious

39:15 Kevin quit the GOP over Arlen Spector, which now seems quaint 

41:00 What kind of conservative do you consider yourself to be?

45:30 Are both American parties at risk of collapse? Could another party emerge?

46:15 The parties matter less now than before Trump was elected

47:00 The decline of the parties has been a huge loss

48:00 Celebrity & social media has filled the gap left by the parties

49:15 Stephen Colbert is unlikely to be the celebrity to carry the progressive banner

50:30 Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to

51:30 Communication is the winning trait of politicians now, not ability

54:30 We’re losing our American identity, maybe too rich for our own good

56:00 We’re going to hit a low that’s so bad, Americans aren’t prepared for it

57:45 The next election is not going to solve our problems