Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else.

On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote

03:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone

05:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters

06:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”?

06:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house

07:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials

08:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run

09:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official?

12:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane

13:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run”

14:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms

14:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28?

16:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power

18:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans

19:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him

20:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP?

21:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28?

23:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate

24:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line

25:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was

26:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates”

27:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model

28:00 The far left is stronger than the far right

31:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives

32:00 Impact of South Carolina going first

33:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field

34:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28

35:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes

36:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate

37:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position

37:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church

38:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win

40:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries

41:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running?

42:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors

43:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six

44:30 How cemented is the red/blue map?

47:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s

48:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers

49:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race

50:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?