The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska’s Senate ballot — a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn’t personally involved but was “definitely aware.” Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic — both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades — and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he’s skeptical it moves the race much. He’s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton’s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck’s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything. 

Then, Reid Wilson — founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs — joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast — and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy’s money won’t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

 

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Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan

05:30 Both parties do this — and why Democrats get judged differently

11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?

15:45 The Acton ad’s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay

22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage

25:00 Election night livestream details

28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm

35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment

39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06

44:45 Virginia’s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal

49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split

55:30 Probability vs. possibility — and the decline of exit polling 

1:10:30 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:12:15 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter

1:17:30 How the state map collapsed for Democrats — and where it’s turning back

1:23:45 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play

1:28:45 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it

1:32:00 Affordability, data centers, and who’s writing the checks

1:36:30 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook

1:40:15 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa

1:43:00 A more factionalized GOP than people realize

1:46:00 The shock results that would signal a huge wave

1:50:00 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada’s undecideds

2:01:00 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?

2:05:00 Ballot initiatives to watch — abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights

2:16:45 Ask Chuck

2:18:00 Any connection between local sports teams’ success and election results?

2:22:45 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?

2:25:45 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?

2:36:30 How do you justify Miami’s #1 ranking when they haven’t beaten a ranked team?

2:41:15 When Trump's presidency is done, who’s tell-all are you most looking forward to?

2:45:15 College football preview

The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola&rsquo;s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska&rsquo;s Senate ballot &mdash; a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola&rsquo;s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn&rsquo;t personally involved but was &ldquo;definitely aware.&rdquo; Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic &mdash; both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades &mdash; and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he&rsquo;s skeptical it moves the race much. He&rsquo;s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton&rsquo;s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck&rsquo;s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything.&nbsp;
Then, Reid Wilson &mdash; founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs &mdash; joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast &mdash; and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy&rsquo;s money won&rsquo;t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become.&nbsp;
Finally, he answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
&nbsp;
18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See<a href="http://kalshi.com/regulatory"> kalshi.com/regulatory</a> for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD
<a href="http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS">http://kalshi.com/r/</a>CHUCKTODD
Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.&nbsp;
Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to <a href="https://quince.com/CHUCK">https://Quince.com/CHUCK</a> for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan
05:30 Both parties do this &mdash; and why Democrats get judged differently
11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?
15:45 The Acton ad&rsquo;s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay
22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage
25:00 Election night livestream details
28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm
35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment
39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06
44:45 Virginia&rsquo;s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal
49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split
55:30 Probability vs. possibility &mdash; and the decline of exit polling&nbsp;
1:10:30 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast
1:12:15 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter
1:17:30 How the state map collapsed for Democrats &mdash; and where it&rsquo;s turning back
1:23:45 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play
1:28:45 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it
1:32:00 Affordability, data centers, and who&rsquo;s writing the checks
1:36:30 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook
1:40:15 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa
1:43:00 A more factionalized GOP than people realize
1:46:00 The shock results that would signal a huge wave
1:50:00 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada&rsquo;s undecideds
2:01:00 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?
2:05:00 Ballot initiatives to watch &mdash; abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights
2:16:45 Ask Chuck
2:18:00 Any connection between local sports teams&rsquo; success and election results?
2:22:45 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?
2:25:45 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?
2:36:30 How do you justify Miami&rsquo;s #1 ranking when they haven&rsquo;t beaten a ranked team?
2:41:15 When Trump's presidency is done, who&rsquo;s tell-all are you most looking forward to?
2:45:15 College football preview

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Full Episode - What To Watch For On Election Night + The Midterm Story Everyone Is Missing… State Governments 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/2e1a9ce7-965e-4427-a83a-b4f101763c97/transcript