Chuck Todd opens with the morning-after analysis of Indiana's primary results, which he says show Trump still has plenty of juice with his own party — roughly $13 million was spent to influence about 100,000 voters, and the results have created new urgency for Republican-led states across the South to redistrict before the midterms. He notes that being on the wrong side of Trump remains a career-ending move in the GOP, that Thomas Massie's upcoming primary will be a critical test of Trump's intra-party strength, and that Trump has effectively postponed the perception that he's a lame duck — even as the Iran war continues to crater his standing with the broader public. He flags Ohio as setting up to look like a real swing state in 2026, with Vivek Ramaswamy's polarizing style creating an opening for highly-regarded former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton, and notes that Iowa and Ohio could both move back toward genuine battleground status. Hethen walks through his fascinating recent participation in a political crisis simulation premised on the idea that January 6th wasn't an anomaly — three teams (Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists) competed for power, and the entire exercise revolved around who could get the capitalists on their side, since their core interest was simply enrichment and instability. The most revealing detail: in the simulation, Congress barely existed and had no measurable impact on outcomes, which Chuck argues mirrors reality and exposes the deeper problem facing American democracy. His blunt verdict: America doesn't actually have a polarization problem — it has a Congress problem, because weak legislatures inevitably create strong executives, Trump simply filled the vacuum a broken Congress created, and the looming gerrymandering wars (with at least eight states set to redraw their maps before 2028) will make Congress even less functional and more purely partisan than it already is. 

Then, Ashley Trice and Rob Holbert — co-publishers of Lagniappe, the alt-weekly turned investigative newspaper covering Mobile and Alabama's Gulf Coast — join the Chuck Toddcast to share the origin story of how their independent publication has grown into the region's premier investigative voice. They explain how Lagniappe started as a free paper and has now transitioned to a subscription model behind a paywall, why most newspapers won't even print these days unless they're certain it won't cost them money (and the surprising fact that there's a national shortage of available printers), and how the paper has built its reputation by covering everything from Mobile's local government to scandals in the wealthy parts of town and irresistible animal stories — both of which they say reliably grow audience faster than anything else. Trice and Holbert preview the upcoming Tuberville-Jones gubernatorial race, which they expect to be surprisingly close, and offer a withering assessment of outgoing Governor Kay Ivey's "very inactive" tenure. They walk through the political divide in Alabama where coastal Mobile often feels left out of the conversation, the surprising audience appeal of youth and high school sports coverage, and the looming threat of the Nexstar-Tegna merger gutting even more local newsrooms across the country.

The conversation broadens into the practical realities of running a sustainable local newsroom in 2026. Trice and Holbert explain that the public has been trained to expect news for free, that reaching younger audiences now requires aggressive use of social media platforms and video content, and that live events have become an increasingly important revenue stream for papers like theirs. Trice and Holbert observe that small businesses are still reaching out about advertising — proof that print journalism continues to have a market — and close with a fascinating observation about how coastal Southern cities like Mobile tend to be less polarized than the rest of the South, with a genuine sense of community that gets lost in the national conversation about red-state politics.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial one-party droughts that are most likely to end in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:15 Indiana primaries show that Trump still has juice with his party

02:15 $13 million was spent to influence around 100k voters

04:15 Trump has created new urgency to redistrict in the south

05:30 Being on the wrong side of Trump will end your career in the GOP

06:15 Thomas Massie’s primary will be telling about Trump’s strength

08:15 Trump has postponed the perception that he’s a lame duck in his party

09:15 Iran is not going to get better for Trump, and the polling is brutal

11:30 Indiana showed that Trump hasn’t lost his fastball with the GOP

12:30 Ohio is setting up to look like a swing state in 2026

14:30 Vivek Ramaswamy is polarizing and has said some politically dumb things

16:30 Amy Acton is highly regarded for her leadership during Covid

18:30 It’s possible that Iowa and Ohio move back toward battleground status

19:00 Chuck participated in a political crisis simulation 

21:15 Premise of simulation was January 6th wasn’t an anomaly

21:45 Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists and Capitalists

23:00 Entire simulation revolved around who could get capitalists on their side 

24:30 Capitalists want enrichment & instability

25:15 In the simulation, congress barely existed, had no impact

26:15 Stress tests begin with the assumption congress is ineffective

26:45 Congress is supposed to be the strongest branch, but is now weakest

28:15 America doesn’t have a polarization problem, we have a congress problem

29:30 Weak legislatures create strong executives

30:45 We’ve suffered from a failure of imagination in the Trump era

31:30 Trump filled the vacuum that was created by a broken congress

33:30 The gerrymandering wars will make congress even less functional

34:00 At least 8 states will remap between now and 2028

36:00 Congress will be nothing but partisanship after all the gerrymandering

37:30 Don’t just assume that Democrats will pass a gerrymandering ban

39:00 Democracy feels vulnerable because congress doesn’t work

45:00 Ashley Trice & Rob Holbert (Lagniappe) join the Chuck ToddCast

46:30 Origin story of Lagniappe

48:45 The paper started off free, now is a subscription model behind paywall

50:30 Most papers wait to print unless they know it won’t cost them money

52:00 There’s a shortage of printers available for publications

54:15 Striving to be Alabama’s best investigative newspaper

56:15 Governor’s race between Tuberville & Jones will be close

58:00 Kay Ivey has been a very inactive governor

59:30 When did local governments understand you were going to cover them?

1:03:00 There’s a big political divide in Alabama, and Mobile feels left out

1:04:00 Is youth & high school sports an audience builder?

1:05:00 Scandals in the rich part of town & animal stories really grow audience

1:06:00 Nexstar & Tegna merger will gut more local newsrooms

1:07:45 People have been trained that they don’t have to pay for news

1:08:15 Have to use social media platforms & video to reach younger audience

1:10:00 What do you do in the live event space and are those money makers?

1:12:30 It takes more reporters for coverage that creates dedicated subscribers

1:14:30 Airbus & shipbuilding have been big economic growth drivers in Mobile

1:16:00 The “commuter schools” have really grown in recent years in Alabama

1:18:30 Are there formalized local news networks regionally that could help you?

1:20:00 No time to create networks, in a constant state of “news triage”

1:20:30 Small businesses still reach out about advertising

1:22:30 Print journalism still has a market

1:25:00 Coastal southern cities tend to be less polarized

1:25:45 There’s a real sense of community in southern coastal cities

1:27:00 Where can people find your work? 

1:28:00 Alternative weekly’s have been able to become local papers of note

1:29:15 ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial droughts likely to end in 2026

1:33:15 #5 Texas

1:36:15 #4 Alabama

1:39:45 #3 Georgia

1:42:15 #2 Ohio

1:46:30 #1 Iowa

1:47:15 Ask Chuck

1:47:30 With the national debt 100% of GDP, what are the risks if this continues?

1:56:00 Could a SCOTUS confirmation fight improve GOP chances in midterms?

2:01:15 Can the WHCD assailant plead insanity via Trump Derangement Syndrome?

2:04:45 Impact if Texas moved to closed primaries?

2:07:15 Is there any appetite in congress for uncapping the house?