Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll.

Then, former Agriculture Secretary and two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — the longest-serving USDA secretary of the modern era, joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain what's actually happening in farm country. The Iran war has driven up input costs while deportations gut the labor supply, farmers get blamed for high prices despite capturing the smallest share of every agricultural dollar, and importing beef only discourages domestic ranchers from staying in business. Vilsack notes America has lost a million farming operations since 1973, with most federal support flowing to the top 10%. He argues food security is national security, that SNAP cuts are income cuts for farmers, and that Iowans are tired enough of watching their kids leave the state to vote for change — with Rob Sand's authenticity, not his party label, the reason he's connecting. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election

06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested

14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll

16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad

21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them

26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas

31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America

40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike

45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity 

59:00 Tom Vilsack joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:01:00 Pirates baseball and why national media misses agriculture

1:04:45 The Iran war, input costs, and a deported labor force

1:09:00 What can actually lower beef prices

1:15:00 A million lost farms and who federal support really reaches

1:21:00 Food security is national security

1:28:45 SNAP cuts, rural schools, and the Senate map in the Midwest

1:35:00 Rob Sand, authenticity, and why Iowa may vote for change

1:44:00 Should 2028 Democrats spend time in Iowa?

1:51:45 Data centers, a bio-based farm economy, and what a good night looks like

1:58:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919

1:59:15 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations

2:00:30 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke

2:02:45 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated

2:04:15 Nobody was able to remove Wilson

2:06:00 States ratified the 25th amendment

2:07:45 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor

2:09:30 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation

2:10:30 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know

2:13:45 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment

2:17:00 Ask Chuck

2:17:15 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump?

2:21:45 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms?

2:26:30 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi?

2:28:45 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms?

2:31:45 NFL/College football recap