Chuck Todd opens with the news that Trump is planning a primetime address to push election denialism, and uses it as a lens to examine how thoroughly fealty to the 2020 fraud lie has become the price of admission in Trump's Washington. He argues Todd Blanche should have no place in the Department of Justice, that he failed his test under questioning from John Cornyn, and that the weaponization fund could become the red line that finally moves Collins, Tillis, and Cornyn — because an inability to confirm Blanche would be a clear sign of Trump's weakening grip on the GOP. He points to the surreal spectacle of Jay Clayton refusing to answer Jon Ossoff's simple question of who won the 2020 election, looking like a ridiculous sycophant in the process, and to Trump endorsing MyPillow's Mike Lindell — the single biggest election conspiracy theorist in the country, a man who's lost every court case and been forced to pay $5 million over his false claims. He reminds listeners that it was Trump's own appointees who ran election security in 2020, that every major election denier from Giuliani on down has been forced to retract in court, and that Georgia's full hand recount matched the machines exactly — the only real constant in Trumpworld is that any outcome Trump dislikes gets branded fraud. 

He then turns to the mounting deaths during ICE encounters, arguing the violence isn't an anomaly but an entirely predictable consequence of an agency whose culture has been deliberately reshaped: DHS recruited candidates with violent psychological profiles using white nationalist slogans, imposed quotas that put officers under enormous stress, and pushed them into vehicle stops that former officials admit ICE has no experience conducting. In two fatal shootings the men killed weren't even the targets, witnesses have disputed the DHS account, there's no body cam footage, and Chuck argues DHS has zero credibility, even as Trump clearly wants the theater and the violent confrontations. On Iran, Chuck is blunt that having less leverage than before the war started is simply what losing a war looks like: the administration badly underestimated Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran deliberately decentralized its regime to survive decapitation strikes, and after three failed military strategies in five months, Trump has spent the entire war negotiating against himself — meaning the best America can now hope for is a managed stalemate, because Iran can't beat the U.S. military, it just has to wait out an increasingly impatient Trump. He closes on a lighter note with the House passing a bill to make daylight saving time permanent, offering the contrarian reminder that the public always wants permanent DST until they actually get it — kids forced to go to school in pitch darkness, and the simple reality that what's good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning. 

Then, John Opdycke — founder and president of Open Primaries, one of the leading organizations pushing to end closed partisan primaries — joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that the exclusion of independent voters is one of the great overlooked scandals of American democracy. Opdycke walks through the byzantine patchwork of voter and party registration rules that vary wildly by state, explains why so many independents sit out partisan primaries entirely, and argues that after 30 years of closed primaries the cumulative effect has been a system where the parties function as both the umpires and the players — a structure that simply doesn't work. He makes the bipartisan argument that tax dollars shouldn't fund the private nominating contests of what are essentially private organizations, and is pointedly critical of Democrats for actively fighting open primary initiatives.He notes that policies with 80% public support routinely fail to pass because voters don't actually have a meaningful say.

The conversation turns tactical and forward-looking, with Opdycke offering a sober assessment of the broader reform landscape and its persistent failures. He argues the ranked-choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors, that the party in power always fights ranked choice voting, and that the modern reform and independent movement suffers from a fundamental lack of a compelling public face — as well as from philanthropic funders who attach outcome expectations that distort the work. Opdycke is candid that third parties fare poorly in nearly every electoral system, that Ross Perot's Reform Party is now essentially a shell, and that the American people still don't trust the reform movement — but he sees real opportunity in specific fights, particularly mobilizing Florida's independents to change the law and pursuing top-two systems that would genuinely open the door to competition. He notes the striking statistic that 10,000 people per week are changing their voter registration, laments the general lack of curiosity (and polling) about who swing voters actually are, and argues there's meaningful left-right overlap among libertarians that reformers could tap. They explore whether the redistricting wars could create a backlash against the two-party system, why there are only about 25 competitive House districts left, and why several states are now actually moving back toward closed primaries. They close with a clear-eyed take on 2028: the reform movement needs a credible presidential candidate, and with 2028 shaping up to be a wild and unpredictable year, the opening for that kind of disruption may be wider than it's been in decades.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of professional athletes best positioned to run for political office and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump planning primetime address to push election denialism

04:15 Todd Blanche should have no place in the Department of Justice

05:00 Blanche failed the test when questioned by John Cornyn

05:30 Weaponization fund could be the red line for Collins, Tillis and Cornyn

07:00 Inability to confirm Blanche would show Trump’s weakening grip on GOP

08:15 John Ossoff asked simple question Jay Clayton wouldn’t answer

09:00 Clayton refused to answer “who won the 2020 election?”

09:30 You must agree with election denialism to work for Trump

10:30 Clayton looked like a ridiculous sycophant

12:00 Administration convinced deportations will help in midterms

12:30 Trump is completely misreading the situation, but nobody will tell him

13:15 Trump gives his endorsement to Mike Lindell from MyPillow

13:45 Trump supporting biggest election conspiracy theorist in the country*

14:30 Lindell was forced to pay $5 million due to his false claims

15:15 Lindell has lost every time his claims ended up in court

15:45 Lindell is a lunatic

16:45 The only constant for Trump is “it’s fraud” if he doesn’t get his way

17:30 It was Trump appointees who ran election security in 2020

18:15 The election fraud claims from Trumpworld kept changing 

19:15 Guliani was forced to refute his election denial in court

20:00 Every election denier has had to retract in a court of law

21:15 Georgia conducted a full recount and it matched the machines

23:00 Multiple deaths have occurred during encounters with ICE

24:00 In the two shootings the men killed were not the targets of the operation

24:45 Witnesses have challenged DHS account & there’s no body cam footage

25:15 DHS has no credibility, can’t trust their account of events

26:00 ICE announced they have paused most vehicle stops nationwide

28:00 Trump wants the theater with ICE, he wants violent confrontations*

29:30 The violence isn’t an anomaly, it’s entirely predictable

30:00 DHS’s recruiting for ICE has changed the culture of the organization

31:00 ICE targeted candidates with a violent psychological profile

32:15 ICE used white nationalist slogans in recruitment ads

34:00 The culture of ICE promotes violent confrontation

34:45 Administration’s quotas has put officers under stress

36:45 Former ICE officials admit the agency doesn’t have experience for vehicle stops

37:30 Tragedy isn’t a risk under these circumstances… it’s a guarantee

38:15 Federal law enforcement has turned into a theater of dominance

39:00 ICE set itself up for a war… and we’re seeing the consequences

39:45 Iran has more leverage than before the war… that’s called losing

40:15 Houthis may close another chokepoint

41:15 The U.S. military always knew the Strait of Hormuz was the ballgame

41:45 Administration underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait

42:30 Iran set up the regime to be decentralized in case of decapitation strikes

43:15 We’ve tried 3 major military strategies in 5 months & none worked

44:30 Trump has negotiated against himself for the entire war

46:00 This has now become a fight over leverage

47:00 Every week the war grinds on, the more unpopular it becomes

47:30 Iran can’t beat the U.S. military, they just need to wait out Trump

48:15 The best we can hope for is a managed stalemate

48:45 House passed a bill to make daylight savings time permanent

49:45 The public always wants permanent daylight savings, until they get it

50:15 Kids are forced to get to school in the dark, results in deaths

51:30 What’s good for you in the evening is bad for someone else in the morning

00:00 John Opdycke joins the Chuck ToddCast

59:45 Voter & party registration rules vary greatly by state

1:01:00 Why do so many independents sit out partisan primaries?

1:03:30 NYC Democratic party actively fought open primary initiative

1:05:00 There have been cumulative effects of 30 years of closed primaries

1:06:15 Voter apathy across the board for voting in primaries

1:07:00 Independents showing strong support for Open Primaries

1:08:45 Parties have every right to choose their candidates

1:09:15 Parties now are both the umpires and the players, it doesn’t work

1:11:00 There’s bipartisan arguments for not using tax dollars for private orgs

1:12:15 Why are Democrats fighting against open primaries?

1:14:15 Ross Perot’s Reform Party is basically a shell at this point

1:17:00 Independent voters are incorrectly understood as in the middle

1:17:30 Independents are moderate in temperament, not ideology

1:19:15 Politics post-Clinton/Gingrich designed to keep independents down

1:20:15 The modern reform/independent movement lacks a face

1:21:15 Philanthropic funders come with expectations of outcomes

1:22:15 Ranked choice voting movement has made serious tactical errors

1:24:30 Party in power always fights ranked choice voting

1:26:00 Exclusion of independent voters is a Jim Crow level violation of rights

1:26:30 Policies with 80% support don’t pass, voters don’t have a say

1:28:00 Third parties don’t do well in almost any electoral system

1:29:15 Swing voters are ignored until October

1:29:45 Which states offer best opportunities for a third party?

1:30:30 Independents require the Democrat to drop out in senate races

1:34:00 Could the redistricting wars create backlash to the two party system?

1:34:45 There’s only 25 competitive house district

1:35:30 Leaders in several states now looking to go back to closed primaries

1:36:45 The American people don’t trust the Reform movement

1:38:45 Mobilizing independents in Florida to change the law

1:41:15 There’s left-right overlap amongst the libertarians

1:42:45 There’s a lack of curiosity about independent/swing voters

1:44:45 10,000 people per week change their voter registration

1:45:30 We need a flood of polling and research about independent voters

1:46:45 What does success look like for Open Primaries this year?

1:49:45 A top two system would open up the door to competition

1:51:15 There are fewer “generic” candidates, much more variance

1:53:45 The Reform movement needs a presidential candidate in ‘28

1:57:30 Perot had to scare both parties to get them to make reforms

1:59:00 Have to creative in ‘28, it will be a wild year in politics

2:00:00 Primaries should be open to all voters

2:00:15 ToddCast Top 5 American athletes that could transition to politics

2:04:15 #5 Travis Kelce

2:05:30 #4 Paul Skenes 

2:06:30 #3 Patrick Mahomes

2:07:15 #2 Steph Curry

2:08:15 #1 Caitlin Clark

2:11:30 Ask Chuck

2:11:45 Favorite old 40s and 50s films?

2:18:00 Your work made a real difference in my life

2:19:30 Are there any states where a congressperson could do what Farage did in UK?

2:23:00 Why don’t presidential campaigns create buzz around VP selection?

2:27:30 What signs would show us we’re turning the corner on this divisive era?