Chuck Todd maps a map that keeps getting worse for Republicans: they’re not defending Trump, and they’re trying to convince voters they aren’t Trump Republicans. Ohio is the firewall and the money is pouring in, while the GOP plays triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina and pulls funding from House incumbents. Chuck sees no sign of a blue mirage — consumer confidence is lower than at any point under Biden, a majority say they’re cutting back on spending, and no amount of Trump talking changes lived experience. He also hits Kimberly Guilfoyle’s forced resignation as ambassador to Greece, Katie Zacharia’s debut as press secretary, the federal search of Ilhan Omar’s home, and Elon Musk’s additional $276 million in political spending since July. 

Then, Washington Monthly editor-in-chief Paul Glastris joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that the entire college rankings industry is measuring the wrong thing. U.S. News rewards wealth, prestige, and exclusivity — guaranteeing the same 20 or 30 schools top the list every year, institutions 95% of students can’t get into anyway. The Monthly ranks on what colleges actually do for the country, and this year debuted the first-ever Best Colleges for Rural America list. Number one is the University of West Alabama in Livingston, population 3,436, where students earn a median $64,122 four years out — roughly $26,500 more than a typical college would have produced. Glastris warns that rural nonprofit closures are creating genuine education deserts, that restrictions on foreign students have gutted school finances, and that fixing higher ed would fix a great deal of what ails the country.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list… expanded to ten with the expanding map, of Governorships most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:45 Republicans running from the Trump label

10:00 Trump’s disappearing filter

13:00 Ohio as the firewall and whether rallies actually help

15:45 Triage in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina

18:15 How big can the House wave get?

21:15 The Latino vote shifts back and the districts in play

26:45 No signs of a blue mirage, and the consumer confidence problem

33:30 Guilfoyle out, and the consequences Trump never faces

37:15 Katie Zacharia’s debut and the sycophancy requirement

41:00 The search of Ilhan Omar’s home and the DOJ’s credibility

47:00 Musk’s $276 million and the problem of concentrated power 

57:30 Paul Glastris joins The Chuck ToddCast

59:30 Why the rankings always crown the same elite schools

1:03:00 What taxpayers spend, and what the rankings should measure

1:08:00 Endowments, foreign students, and schools in financial trouble

1:13:00 Education deserts and the first rural college ranking

1:18:00 The University of West Alabama and the returns nobody talks about

1:22:45 Higher ed as a political wedge issue

1:27:30 Advice for policymakers and the biggest obstacles to reform

1:33:30 What AI actually does to the value of a degree

1:38:45 How UT Rio Grande Valley outranks Yale

1:44:00 The standout state systems and what makes them work

1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Most Likely Governor’s Seat Flips

1:55:30 #1 Iowa

1:56:45 #2 Kansas

1:58:15 #3 Ohio

1:59:00 #4 Alaska

1:59:45 #5 Texas

2:00:30 #6 Georgia

2:01:30 #7 Nevada

2:02:30 #8 Oregon

2:03:30 #9 Wisconsin

2:04:00 #10 Florida

2:06:30 Ask Chuck

2:06:45 Predictions for Missouri house race

2:09:00 If Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth, could impeachment succeed?

2:13:00 Why is US an outlier on third party success?

2:14:30 If election is a repudiation, reform on emergency presidential powers?

2:18:00 Can Annie Andrews overcome straight ticket voting in SC?