With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.

He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.

Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond.

The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day

04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult

06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big

07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?

08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance

09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats

11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat

12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started

14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors

15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans

16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates

18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018

19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance

21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election

23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?

25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise

27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent

29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem

31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?

33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance

34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable

36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through

37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument

38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off

41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami

42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?

46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out

49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman

50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?

52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?

52:45 College football week one recap 

1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy

1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed

1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due

1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?

1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond?

1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years

1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032

1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done

1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start

1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?

1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming

1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump

1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress

1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands

1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul

1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age

1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers?

1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated

1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public

1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie

1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?

2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling

2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50

2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?

2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board

2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama

2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974

2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake

2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon

2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?

2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support

2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew

2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over

2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it

2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon

2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?

2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken

2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed

2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon

2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon

2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon

2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing

2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents

2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last

2:45:15 Ask Chuck

2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?

2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?

2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?

2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?

3:03:00 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?