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Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes — overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points — and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck’s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left — all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening. 

Then, writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success.

The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.

Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results

05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win

06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party

08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed

09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities

11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes
13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids

14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades

16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP

17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote

19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton

20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold

23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties

23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions

24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation

25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory

27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win

29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI

31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary

33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar

34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters

35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court

36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed

37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans

37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one

38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\

39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems

39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton

40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race

41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election

43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states

44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats

46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes

46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes

47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax

49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser

49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people

50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly

50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller

50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women

51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues

52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically

53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida

55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty

55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool

56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court

57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality

58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline

58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran

59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war

1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high

1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option

1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over

1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened

1:10:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:12:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?

1:14:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?

1:15:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War

1:16:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon

1:17:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was

1:18:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2

1:19:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik

1:21:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them

1:22:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure

1:22:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it

1:23:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great”

1:23:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust

1:24:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history

1:25:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers

1:25:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc

1:26:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie

1:28:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t

1:29:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful

1:30:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript

1:32:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage

1:34:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room

1:35:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik

1:37:45 The whole world was waiting/watching the summit with bated breath

1:38:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?

1:39:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%

1:40:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?

1:41:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?

1:42:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?

1:43:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio

1:44:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge

1:45:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history

1:46:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take

1:47:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it

1:50:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc.

1:53:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories

1:55:15 What’s your dream project?

1:56:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved

1:59:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?

2:00:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get

2:02:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats

2:04:45 #1 Kansas governor

2:06:15 #2 Michigan senate

2:08:00 #3 Oregon governor

2:09:15 #4 Wisconsin governor

2:10:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats

2:13:45 Ask Chuck

2:14:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?

2:17:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed?

2:19:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?

2:26:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?

2:28:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?

2:32:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble?

Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes &mdash; overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points &mdash; and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck&rsquo;s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left &mdash; all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening.&nbsp;
Then, writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjav&iacute;k Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script &mdash; the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjav&iacute;k &mdash; that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory &mdash; winners and losers &mdash; while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success.
The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjav&iacute;k, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice &mdash; how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjav&iacute;k as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.
Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats&hellip; and couldn&rsquo;t make it to 5. He also answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment.&nbsp;
Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com &amp; enter code TODDCAST
for 30% off your first order.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.&nbsp;
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to <a href="http://askchapter.org/chuck">askchapter.org/chuck</a> <a href="http://askchapter.org/realdana">/</a>*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact<a href="http://medicare.gov/"> Medicare.gov</a>, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
04:45 Review of Tuesday&rsquo;s primary results
05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win
06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party
08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed
09:30 Republicans don&rsquo;t have many senate pickup opportunities
11:30 El-Sayed&rsquo;s winning margin will be less than 20k votes 13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids
14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades
16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren&rsquo;t voting for the GOP
17:30 There&rsquo;s a growing white, progressive vote
19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton
20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold
23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties
23:45 Prefer the label of &ldquo;movement&rdquo; vs. &ldquo;governing&rdquo; factions
24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation
25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn&rsquo;t guarantee victory
27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win
29:15 Don&rsquo;t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI
31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary
33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar
34:45 Founders didn&rsquo;t want judges to be elected &amp; subject to voters
35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court
36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed
37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans
37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one
38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\
39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems
39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton
40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race
41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election
43:00 Trump&rsquo;s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states
44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats
46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes
46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes
47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax
49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser
49:30 Voters don&rsquo;t like subsidizing rich people
50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly
50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller
50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women
51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues
52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically
53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida
55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty
55:45 Iran war is going sideways &amp; Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool
56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public &amp; another in court
57:15 Trump says she &ldquo;choked&rdquo;... she choked on reality
58:00 Trump doesn&rsquo;t care the facts didn&rsquo;t meet the case, wanted a headline
58:30 Maybe he&rsquo;s angry because he&rsquo;s lost control of everything else, like Iran
59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war
1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high
1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option
1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over
1:02:45 Trump&rsquo;s grip on his voters has weakened
1:10:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast
1:12:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?
1:14:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?
1:15:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War
1:16:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon
1:17:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was
1:18:30 Gorbachev didn&rsquo;t have any memory of World War 2
1:19:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik
1:21:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them
1:22:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure
1:22:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it
1:23:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference &ldquo;great&rdquo;
1:23:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust
1:24:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history
1:25:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners &amp; losers
1:25:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc
1:26:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie
1:28:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn&rsquo;t
1:29:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful
1:30:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript
1:32:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage
1:34:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room
1:35:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik
1:37:45 The whole world was waiting/watching the summit with bated breath
1:38:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?
1:39:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%
1:40:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?
1:41:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?
1:42:30 How&rsquo;d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?
1:43:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio
1:44:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge
1:45:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history
1:46:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take
1:47:45 You&rsquo;re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it
1:50:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc.
1:53:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories
1:55:15 What&rsquo;s your dream project?
1:56:30 Need to &ldquo;prove it&rdquo; in order to get your dream project approved
1:59:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?
2:00:45 Things you don&rsquo;t get can be just as important as what you do get
2:02:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats
2:04:45 #1 Kansas governor
2:06:15 #2 Michigan senate
2:08:00 #3 Oregon governor
2:09:15 #4 Wisconsin governor
2:10:45 #5 None - There aren&rsquo;t that many vulnerable Dem seats
2:13:45 Ask Chuck
2:14:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?
2:17:30 Thoughts on the World Cup &amp; sportsmanship displayed?
2:19:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?
2:26:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?
2:28:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?
2:32:45 Does growing physical separation between public &amp; leaders heighten their bubble?

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Full Episode - Biggest Takeaways From Tuesday’s Primaries + The Summit That Almost Ended Nuclear Weapons Forever 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/91d3199d-02f4-41d1-bc08-b49e000cf23c/transcript