Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong.

The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI

04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won

05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party

06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic

07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics

08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell

08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA

10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit

11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over

12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism

13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota

15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives

16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them

17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch

18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives

19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries

20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees

21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks

22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising

22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances

23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people

24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t

25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them

26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies

26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up

28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess

29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley

30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots

31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley

32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong

33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem

34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won

36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems

38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked

40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives

42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive

42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle

43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left

44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t

46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors

47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?

49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party

50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over

51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries

51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary

52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote

53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff

55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping

57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary

57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970

58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House

59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter

1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice

1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note

1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly

1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message

1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said

1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger

1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company

1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public

1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party

1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 

1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model

1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things

1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too

1:15:00 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets

1:17:00 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC

1:18:00 #4 Carol Moseley Braun

1:18:45 #3 Andrew Gillum

1:19:45 #2 Eric Cantor

1:20:45 #1 David Crawley

1:22:15 Honorable mentions

1:23:45 Ask Chuck

1:24:00 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?

1:27:00 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?

1:34:45 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?

1:38:45 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?

1:41:15 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger

1:42:15 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out

1:43:00 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion

1:44:30 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now

1:45:30 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet

1:46:15 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore

1:47:00 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats

1:48:00 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent

1:49:30 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking