Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go

06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand

08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance

11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade

14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump

19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip

21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot

25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters

30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine

35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset 

37:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip

38:30 #1 North Carolina

39:15 #2 Alaska

41:00 #3 Ohio

42:45 #4 Texas

44:30 #5 Maine

46:30 #6 Kansas

47:15 #7 Iowa

49:00 #8 Michigan

52:00 #9 Nebraska

54:15 #10 South Carolina

59:00 Ask Chuck

59:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists?

1:04:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center?

1:08:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum?

1:12:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective?

1:16:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?