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With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/*Paid Partnership 

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

01:14:00 #5 Oregon

01:15:00 #4 Ohio

01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

01:18:15 #2 Kansas

01:19:00 #1 Iowa

01:20:00 Ask Chuck

01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months &mdash; except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process.&nbsp;
Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor&rsquo;s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment.
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.&nbsp;
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to <a href="http://askchapter.org/chuck">askchapter.org/chuck</a> <a href="http://askchapter.org/realdana">/</a>*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact<a href="http://medicare.gov/"> Medicare.gov</a>, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd&rsquo;s introduction
06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections
06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months
07:15 Trump&rsquo;s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day
08:30 Trump&rsquo;s approval has slowly eroded since that day
09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs &amp; tax increases on Americans
10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House
11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans
12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats
14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map
14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate
16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate
17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle
18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago
18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year
19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas
21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats
21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?
22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat
24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against
26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable
27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent
29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women &amp; independents are not
30:15 Persuadable voters don&rsquo;t like election denialism &amp; the Iran war
31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval
32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president&rsquo;s own party
34:00 Clinton &amp; Bush were able to have historic overperformance
35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014
36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans
37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump&rsquo;s troubles
37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump&rsquo;s approval
38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers
39:15 Trump&rsquo;s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms
40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it
42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports
43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC &amp; Big Ten
44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does
46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share &amp; shuts down booster collectives
46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools
47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement
48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union&hellip; except this
49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down
50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges
51:30 In any other industry this would be a &ldquo;company union&rdquo; which was outlawed
53:00 They could fix transfer portal &amp; eligibility and punt on the compensation
53:30 College athletes are now professionals &amp; should be treated like it
54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players
55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill
57:00 College football&rsquo;s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere
58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut
59:00 We&rsquo;ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025
59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak
1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK
1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price
1:01:30 Don&rsquo;t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation
1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal
1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn&rsquo;t have authority to arrest Bibi
1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel &amp; foreign policy
1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC
1:04:15 Mamdani&rsquo;s project a real &ldquo;get shit done&rdquo; competence so far
1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?
1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder
1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries
1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn&rsquo;t require joining a club
1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate
1:08:30 Independents shouldn&rsquo;t be locked out of primaries
01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor&rsquo;s seats most likely to change parties
01:14:00 #5 Oregon
01:15:00 #4 Ohio
01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin
01:18:15 #2 Kansas
01:19:00 #1 Iowa
01:20:00 Ask Chuck
01:20:15 Love for Chuck&rsquo;s creaky chair
01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?
01:23:30 How was JFK&rsquo;s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?
01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?
01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is The Biggest Wildcard Of The 2026 Midterms + RFK Jr. Is Making Measles Great Again

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/667ef912-749c-4cf0-8d56-b4900056bc72/transcript