Chuck Todd opens with the unraveling of Trump's Iran peace talks and the president's threat of a naval blockade, breaking down why the administration has far less leverage than it's letting on, why Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz puts Trump in a corner with only two real choices—escalate or capitulate—and why markets have been dangerously complacent as the economic hit accelerates and consumer confidence sinks below COVID-era lows. From there, Chuck digs into the collapse of Eric Swalwell's career amid sexual abuse allegations and the bipartisan push to expel him along with three other members of Congress, the wide-open and underwhelming California governor's race left behind by a weak Democratic field and Tom Steyer's charmless self-promotion, the curious Roger Stone–Tulsi Gabbard connection and their shared Russia sympathies, and Trump's promise of preemptive pardons for White House staff—making the case for why Congress urgently needs a commission on the pardon power.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Bay of Pigs debacle under John F. Kennedy and why that event still reverberates today, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

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Timeline:

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00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Trump threatens naval blockade after Iran peace talks fall apart

05:00 Trump admin has less leverage in talks than they’re letting on

05:30 Trump’s stupid rhetoric is not harmless

06:00 Control over the Strait is biggest piece of leverage & Iran has it

07:00 Will Trump send in ground troops if he can’t get what he wants?

08:30 Trump only has two choices: Escalate or capitulate

09:30 If Trump’s lucky he can get the Obama nuclear deal, but that’s unlikely

10:45 Markets will likely panic, they’ve been too complacent so far

12:15 Trump is begging for deal to save face and the Iranians know it

13:15 Trump keeps declaring victory despite reality being the opposite

15:00 Trump doesn’t understand regime, thinks they’re transactional like him

16:00 Iran looking like past failed military operations like Vietnam & Iraq

18:00 Iran saw Libya give up nuclear ambitions & regime was toppled

20:00 Economic hit is happening, consumer confidence lower than COVID

21:30 As Iran talks fell apart, Trump & Rubio were attending UFC fight

23:00 Rubio knows better, but has fallen in line anyway

24:30 Eric Swalwell’s campaign falls apart after allegations of sexual abuse

25:30 Rumors of Swalwell’s behavior existed for years

27:00 Swalwell is only denying criminal behavior, not all the allegations

28:45 Swalwell is trying hard to say he’s not Bill Cosby… he’s Bill Clinton

29:30 Push to expel Swalwell & possibly 3 other members of congress

31:00 It’s politically convenient for leadership to agree to boot them all

33:00 Will congress hold their members to a higher standard than the POTUS?

35:00 It’s likely all four members will get expelled 

35:45 California dems had been reluctantly rallying around Swalwell 

37:00 Major Democrats passed on running for CA gov, leaving weak field

38:15 Hard to blame Newsom for not setting up an “heir apparent”

39:00 Tom Steyer has spent an insane amount of money to promote himself

40:00 You need to have charm in politics, and Steyer doesn’t have it

41:30 Should prominent California dems all endorse the same person?

43:30 Schiff, Padilla, Harris & Newsom may need to play kingmaker

45:00 Likely there will be two weak candidates heading into November

46:30 Stories coming out that Roger Stone saved Tulsi Gabbard

47:15 Both Stone & Gabbard have been pro-Russia… coincidence?

47:45 Trump promises preemptive pardons for WH staff

48:45 We need a congressional commission on pardons

53:45 ToddCast Time Machine - Too many huge historical events to choose from

55:45 April 1961 - Bay of Pigs

56:30 Nixon meets with Castro after Eisenhower refused to

58:00 There a back and forth over whether to embrace or shun Castro

58:30 Cold War tensions were very high when the Bay of Pigs happens

59:15 Bay of Pigs was a presidential approved operation before JFK took office

1:01:00 Kennedy’s hands were tied by his predecessor

1:01:45 The plan required air superiority, but Castro’s air force had survived

1:02:45 Castro arrests more than 100,000 suspected dissidents

1:04:30 Most of the participants are captured

1:05:00 Kennedy promised a free Havana that never transpired

1:05:45 Cuban Americans became reliable Republican voters under Reagan

1:07:15 Ask Chuck

1:07:30 Will congress ever vote against rebuilding military after president launches war?

1:12:00 Why is the market not really reacting to the Iran war?

1:14:30 As norms become tested, will congress every reassert its role?

1:20:45 Outside of your Top 5 senate flips, what are your 6-10?

1:25:45 Suggestions to fix the NBA

1:28:45 Does anyone use Camp David since Trump doesn’t?