Chuck Todd opens with the Iran ceasefire collapsing as the U.S. and Iran trade strikes again — but the real story, he argues, is that the U.S. military just inadvertently revealed Trump was lying about the war all along. The targets American forces hit in this latest round were the very targets Trump claimed weeks ago had already been destroyed; either Iran somehow reconstituted its entire military in a single week, or the president lied to the country, and CENTCOM's own report makes clear which it was. He warns that lying about war is historically not a small thing for a president to survive, no matter how badly Trump wants to memory-hole the entire episode. He then turns to the escalating Democratic fight over taxing billionaires, taking a characteristically nuanced position: billionaires are genuinely undertaxed, but "tax the rich" doesn't work as actual policy the way it works as a slogan, the loopholes built into the code exist to avoid unintended consequences, and the changes to the inheritance "death tax" are responsible for an enormous share of current inequality. He assesses Zohran Mamdani taking a victory lap as the new face of the DSA (and increasingly comfortable as a face of the Democratic Party), praising him as a genuinely compelling performer and possible heir to the Bernie movement while questioning whether his story can travel beyond New York City. He closes with one of his favorite structural arguments — that the far-left and far-right are now feeding off each other's fear, that a faction doesn't need to capture the whole country, just one congressional caucus, and that the founders' actual protection against factions was supposed to be a multitude of them — which is exactly why the House was meant to scale with the population and why Congress's choice to freeze its size needs to be reversed. He also looks ahead at fascinating Colorado primaries.

Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to explain the origin of the name of the bikini swimsuit, and why America’s relationship with nuclear technology changed over time. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Asl Chuck” segment. 

From the opening whistle to the final kick. Bet on a match and get bonus bets for every goal scored at Fanduel.com 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:15 U.S. and Iran trade strikes again, ceasefire not holding

06:15 The U.S. military basically revealed Trump was lying about the war

06:45 Historically, voters don’t accept lies from presidents about war

07:30 The targets the U.S. hit were targets Trump said were already destroyed

08:30 Three weeks ago Trump said Iran had nothing… clearly it wasn’t true

09:15 Making the case that Trump is full of shit isn’t hard*

10:30 Either Iran reconstituted its military in a week, or Trump lied. 

11:15 CENTCOM’s report shows that Trump lied to the country

13:15 Trump announced on his birthday that he had ended the war

14:00 Handing Iran billions of dollars is hardly the “surrender” Trump proclaimed

15:45 Lying about war is not a small thing for a president to do

17:15 Trump thought he could memory-hole the Iran war, Iran won’t let him

17:45 There’s a right way to tax billionaires, but it’s not currently being proposed

19:00 Billionaires are undertaxed, but tax policy doesn’t work as a slogan

19:45 Loopholes are built into the tax code to avoid unintended consequences

20:30 Reforms to the inheritance tax allow the wealthy to avoid taxation

21:45 Closing other loopholes could raise hundreds of billions

23:00 Taxing billionaires is fine, but you can’t mess up tax code in the process

24:30 The Newsom vs. Khanna fight - Both are making good points

25:00 A state level wealth tax could create a shortfall in the long term

25:45 The “death tax” change is responsible for much of the current inequality

26:30 “Fair share” polls well, but requires major changes to the tax code

27:30 Tax reform isn’t simple or quick, requires real work from congress

28:15 Mamdani takes a victory lap, wants to be face of the DSA movement

29:30 Mamdani is fine with being the face of the Democratic party

31:00 Mamdani is telling a compelling story, but can it go beyond NYC?

33:00 Mamdani had a weak defense of the Dan Goldman coffee incident

34:00 Mamdani is very good as a performer, could be heir to Bernie movement

35:45 The far-left and the far-right are feeding off of each other

36:30 Trump ramps up rhetoric against DSA, calls them “godless communists”

37:30 The DSA and Trump both working off the fear of each other

38:45 A faction doesn’t need to capture the country, just one caucus

39:30 The founders’ protection from factions, was a multitude of factions

41:30 The House of Representatives was supposed to scale with the country

43:15 Congress chose to stop letting the House grow, needs to change

46:45 The Colorado primaries will be fascinating

48:15 Michael Bennett has to carry the banner of being a D.C. creature

48:45 John Hickenlooper facing a viable challenge from the left

50:30 The DSA candidate for congress is ahead in the polls

55:15 ToddCast Time Machine

56:15 July 1946 The bikini swimsuit named after atomic bomb test

58:45 Both fear and optimism rose about nuclear technology

59:30 We didn’t have an enemy yet with an atomic bomb

1:00:15 The atom wasn’t viewed just as a weapon, but as the future

1:01:45 We were exporting the atomic age and that seemed cool

1:02:15 The people on bikini atoll were being told to leave their homes

1:03:15 The vibe changed once the Soviets detonated their first bomb

1:04:15 Very few people know why the bikini swimsuit carries its name

1:05:45 Ask Chuck

1:06:00 Do you see somebody jumping into ‘28 presidential race prior to midterms?

1:11:15 What do you think happened in the meeting between Trump & senators?

1:19:15 Thoughts on college athletics eligibility changes?

1:22:15 Thoughts on straight-ticket voting?

1:24:15 Is the premise that moderate Democrats are more “electable” overstated?

1:31:45 Would reforms that redistribute power meaningfully improve our system?

1:33:45 Any go-to books on civics and the constitution?