Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:01:30 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

1:02:00 #5 Todd Achilles

1:04:30 #4 Dan Osborne

1:06:45 #3 Seth Bodnar

1:08:00 #2 Lisa Murkowski

1:09:00 #1 John Fetterman

1:11:45 Ask Chuck

1:12:45 Correction for answer on the last pod

1:15:00 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

1:22:15 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

1:25:30 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

1:29:00 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

1:34:15 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?