Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants

03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time

04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important

05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina

05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades

07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else

07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south

08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives

09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire

10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi

13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps

14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state

15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable

17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries

18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives

19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate

22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd

24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out

24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs

26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID

26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first

28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is

29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada

30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results

31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better

32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel

33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election

34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday

34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates

36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state

37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore

37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg

39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives

41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like

44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign

45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters

47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar

49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem

50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?

50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC

51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party

52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again

53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes

54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran

55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century

56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?

58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?

59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this

59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner

1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats

1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder

1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room

1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech

1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states

1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference

1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort

1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down

1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

1:16:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968

1:16:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment

1:17:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification

1:17:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified

1:18:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open

1:19:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time

1:19:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time

1:20:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war

1:21:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things

1:21:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution

1:22:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship

1:23:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling

1:24:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute

1:26:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American

1:27:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise

1:28:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 

1:29:00 Ask Chuck

1:29:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?

1:32:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?

1:37:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?

1:41:00 Recommendations for political books?

1:46:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?