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Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.

The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.

 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck/  *Paid Partnership 

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contactMedicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?

06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%

08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling

11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview

13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA

14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio

16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina

17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham

22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along

26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common

27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins

30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down

33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012

35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points

36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle

38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998

41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa

43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire

45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army

47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war

48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself

52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed

54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership

57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened

59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system

1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga

1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill

1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters

1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction

1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 

1:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip

1:21:00 #1 North Carolina

1:21:45 #2 Alaska

1:22:15 #3 Texas

1:23:45 #4 Ohio

1:25:30 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan

1:27:30 Ask Chuck

1:27:45 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?

1:30:00 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?

1:33:00 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?

1:35:15 College football preview

1:40:30 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football

Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling &mdash; though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.
The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it &mdash; the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck&rsquo;s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics &mdash; the House &mdash; using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.
Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners&rsquo; questions in the &ldquo;Ask Chuck&rdquo; segment, and previews week 1 in college football.
&nbsp;
Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.
&nbsp;
For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to <a href="http://askchapter.org/chuck">askchapter.org/chuck</a> <a href="http://askchapter.org/realdana">/</a>&nbsp; *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan&rsquo;s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don&rsquo;t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact<a href="http://medicare.gov/"> Medicare.gov</a>, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.&nbsp;
Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction
04:15 A Democratic wave is building&hellip; but how big?
06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%
08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee &mdash; and why behavior beats polling
11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview
13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA
14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio
16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina
17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham
22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along
26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common
27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins
30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big &mdash; and Abbott's trending down
33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012
35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological &mdash; 2-3 points
36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle
38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998
41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa
43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire
45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army
47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war
48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself
52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia &amp; China are being removed
54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership
57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened
59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system
1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga
1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill
1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust&hellip; by representing their voters
1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction
1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first&nbsp;
1:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip
1:21:00 #1 North Carolina
1:21:45 #2 Alaska
1:22:15 #3 Texas
1:23:45 #4 Ohio
1:25:30 #5 Tie between Maine &amp; Michigan
1:27:30 Ask Chuck
1:27:45 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?
1:30:00 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?
1:33:00 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?
1:35:15 College football preview
1:40:30 Column on Lane Kiffin being the &ldquo;bad boy&rdquo; of college football

The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.

The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck’s Commentary -The Blue Wave Is Building… But How Big Will It Be? + The Five-Alarm Fire At The Pentagon

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/cc4e3466-c8ff-4f45-a26a-b4ba0011c403/transcript