Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections

04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire

05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races

06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party

08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range

09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH

11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans

13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters

14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map

14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result

15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map

16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election

18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect

19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map

20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue

21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction

23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos

25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery

26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election

29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem

31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort

33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska

34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing

36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA

37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective

40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy

42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills

42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars

43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts

44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk

45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall

48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare

50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election

56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide

1:00:00 #5 Florida

1:01:15 #4 Kansas

1:03:30 #3 Iowa

1:06:15 #2 Texas

1:09:15 #1 Ohio

1:12:00 Ask Chuck

1:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war?

1:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job?

1:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive?

1:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip?

1:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on?