With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.

He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day

04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult

06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big

07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?

08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance

09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats

11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat

12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started

14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors

15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans

16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates

18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018

19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance

21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election

23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?

25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise

27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent

29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem

31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?

33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance

34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable

36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through

37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument

38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off

41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami

42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?

46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out

49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman

50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?

52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?

52:45 College football week one recap 

1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974

1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake

1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon

1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?

1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support

1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew

1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over

1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received

1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it

1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon

1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?

1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken

1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop

1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed

1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon

1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon

1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon

1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing

1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents

1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last

1:43:45 Ask Chuck

1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?

1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?

1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?

1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?

2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?