The Canada-U.S. Trade War Fallout with Ben Rabidoux and Ron Butler

Explicit

In this episode of Canadian Macro, Simon and Dan are joined by Ben Rabidoux and Ron Butler for a wide-ranging discussion on the renewed U.S.-Canada trade tensions and what they could mean for the Canadian economy.

They discuss why the trade war could weigh on consumer confidence, business investment, housing activity and key sectors like autos, agriculture, energy and manufacturing. The conversation also covers how political rhetoric, counter-tariffs and uncertainty around future U.S. policy could keep buyers and businesses on the sidelines.

Ben breaks down what he is seeing in the Canadian housing market, including why parts of Ontario may be moving closer to a bottom, why housing bottoms tend to be a multi-year process, and how weak consumer confidence, affordability challenges and falling new supply are shaping the outlook.

Ron joins the discussion to explain what is happening on the mortgage front, including why more borrowers are moving toward variable rates, how household stress is showing up in refinancing and debt consolidation, and why power-of-sale activity could continue rising into 2027.

The episode also covers the K-shaped economy, weakening consumer spending, Canadian bank risks, mortgage fraud, potential U.S. pressure on Canadian financial institutions, and why the next phase of the trade war could have major implications for markets, housing and the broader economy.

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