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One word dominated the economic debate during the US presidential campaign.

One word dominated the economic debate during the US presidential campaign.

It's tariff. Because tariffs are going to make us rich as hell. It's going to bring our countries.

It's tariff. Because tariffs are going to make us rich as hell. It's going to bring our countries.

Business is back that left us.

Business is back that left us.

While President Trump says those tariffs would be applied to countries all over the world, he singled out one of them over and over again.

While President Trump says those tariffs would be applied to countries all over the world, he singled out one of them over and over again.

I put tariffs on China. With China, we took in hundreds of billions of dollars.

I put tariffs on China. With China, we took in hundreds of billions of dollars.

Nobody else took in ten cents from China.

Nobody else took in ten cents from China.

They never did massive tariffs on China. During my four years, we had the best economy in the history.

They never did massive tariffs on China. During my four years, we had the best economy in the history.

During his first term in twenty eighteen, Trump embarked on a trade war with China in a bid to bring manufacturing back to the US.

During his first term in twenty eighteen, Trump embarked on a trade war with China in a bid to bring manufacturing back to the US.

Now he's escalating it.

Now he's escalating it.

That may seem like a good opportunity for other nations that sell products to the US, but China has not let up on manufacturing in the face of Trump's tariff. Products that would have gone to the US are now flooding into nations all over the world, leading to factory closures and mass layoffs. With a new set of sweeping global tariffs, set to take effect on April second. That pain is likely to increase.

That may seem like a good opportunity for other nations that sell products to the US, but China has not let up on manufacturing in the face of Trump's tariff. Products that would have gone to the US are now flooding into nations all over the world, leading to factory closures and mass layoffs. With a new set of sweeping global tariffs, set to take effect on April second. That pain is likely to increase.

Every country, even if you don't have tariffs placed directly on you, will be impacted in some way.

Every country, even if you don't have tariffs placed directly on you, will be impacted in some way.

Katya Dmitrieva is an economics correspondent for Bloomberg based in Hong Kong, and she says, when it comes to China.

Katya Dmitrieva is an economics correspondent for Bloomberg based in Hong Kong, and she says, when it comes to China.

While shipments to places like the US where there are higher tariffs have dropped over the past five years, what you're seeing is that a bigger part of their trade PIE, or a bigger part of their exports PIE is just going to a number of countries all around the world.

While shipments to places like the US where there are higher tariffs have dropped over the past five years, what you're seeing is that a bigger part of their trade PIE, or a bigger part of their exports PIE is just going to a number of countries all around the world.

In other words, US tariffs did lead to China selling fewer goods to the US, but China's exports didn't suffer overall. The things they no longer sold to the US they sold to other countries instead. And while some of those goods were used in products that were later sold to US consumers, many others work things like clothes and electronics that put local manufacturers out of business as consumers opted for cheaper items.

In other words, US tariffs did lead to China selling fewer goods to the US, but China's exports didn't suffer overall. The things they no longer sold to the US they sold to other countries instead. And while some of those goods were used in products that were later sold to US consumers, many others work things like clothes and electronics that put local manufacturers out of business as consumers opted for cheaper items.

I was speaking with an economist at HSBC, Frederick Newman, and he put it this way. It was also in one of his research notes. It's an African proverb and it goes, when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. And I think that's a great way of encapsulating exactly what we're seeing now and what we're going to be seeing for the next few years with tariffs.

I was speaking with an economist at HSBC, Frederick Newman, and he put it this way. It was also in one of his research notes. It's an African proverb and it goes, when elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. And I think that's a great way of encapsulating exactly what we're seeing now and what we're going to be seeing for the next few years with tariffs.

I'm David Gera and this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today on the show, how US tariffs on China are being shouldered by the rest of the world, causing industries in other countries to suffer, and how Trump's reciprocal tariffs on April second could make life even harder for nations caught in the crossfire. Near the city of Surakarta in Indonesia, on the island of Java, a transformation has been taking place. The region is Indonesia's textile center, known for making elaborate fabrics, but Bloomberg'skati Dimitrieva says in recent years that industry has been struggling.

I'm David Gera and this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today on the show, how US tariffs on China are being shouldered by the rest of the world, causing industries in other countries to suffer, and how Trump's reciprocal tariffs on April second could make life even harder for nations caught in the crossfire. Near the city of Surakarta in Indonesia, on the island of Java, a transformation has been taking place. The region is Indonesia's textile center, known for making elaborate fabrics, but Bloomberg'skati Dimitrieva says in recent years that industry has been struggling.

It's interesting because it feels and it looks a lot like the towns that I've seen in the US rust belb the Midwest.

It's interesting because it feels and it looks a lot like the towns that I've seen in the US rust belb the Midwest.

One of the things you'll notice right away is how many factories are closed. They don't have a market anymore. Domestically for their goods because people can just buy it cheaper in markets and online from China.

One of the things you'll notice right away is how many factories are closed. They don't have a market anymore. Domestically for their goods because people can just buy it cheaper in markets and online from China.

Chinese manufacturers are undercutting Indonesian textile makers and driving them out of business. Even Indonesia's trademark Batique textiles aren't safe from Chinese competition. When Indonesian producers would try to sell elsewhere, they would also compete with these cheaper Chinese goods. How much of an outlier is Indonesia? How many other countries are kind of wrestling with these same issues.

Chinese manufacturers are undercutting Indonesian textile makers and driving them out of business. Even Indonesia's trademark Batique textiles aren't safe from Chinese competition. When Indonesian producers would try to sell elsewhere, they would also compete with these cheaper Chinese goods. How much of an outlier is Indonesia? How many other countries are kind of wrestling with these same issues.

Indonesia is not alone. You have Vietnam, Thailand, you have even South Korea and Japan, which are developed economies, but we've seen them making moves because of the surge in Chinese imports. We're seeing it in Mexico and places like Turkey as well. So it really does span the globe.

Indonesia is not alone. You have Vietnam, Thailand, you have even South Korea and Japan, which are developed economies, but we've seen them making moves because of the surge in Chinese imports. We're seeing it in Mexico and places like Turkey as well. So it really does span the globe.

I was astonished career that China has managed to maintain a share of global exports despite a big drop in its sheriff total US imports since Trump's first term. How is that the case? How given that focus on consumption, has that played out in that way?

I was astonished career that China has managed to maintain a share of global exports despite a big drop in its sheriff total US imports since Trump's first term. How is that the case? How given that focus on consumption, has that played out in that way?

So when the tariffs came in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, China immediately pivoted to other markets. So primarily what that's meant is emerging markets getting a lot of the same goods that normally would have gone to the States, but because of high tariffs, demands for those items just dropped. And so China's share of exports to places like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Mexico have skyrocketed, while shipments to places like the US where there are higher tariffs have dropped over the past five years. And so what you're seeing is that a bigger part of their trade PIE, or a bigger part of their exports PIE is just going to a number of countries all around the world.

So when the tariffs came in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, China immediately pivoted to other markets. So primarily what that's meant is emerging markets getting a lot of the same goods that normally would have gone to the States, but because of high tariffs, demands for those items just dropped. And so China's share of exports to places like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Mexico have skyrocketed, while shipments to places like the US where there are higher tariffs have dropped over the past five years. And so what you're seeing is that a bigger part of their trade PIE, or a bigger part of their exports PIE is just going to a number of countries all around the world.

What does that look like on the ground in these other countries, if China has shifted its attention to them, what does it look like when they're exporting so much two other countries.

What does that look like on the ground in these other countries, if China has shifted its attention to them, what does it look like when they're exporting so much two other countries.

Well, what it looks like is job loss. It looks like anger, and once that factory closes, I mean that city is at risk. And that's exactly what we saw in the States. It's exactly what we're seeing now across emerging markets. And it's not just workers, of course, it's also retailers. It's also local indu street executives and companies that are feeling the pain of this.

Well, what it looks like is job loss. It looks like anger, and once that factory closes, I mean that city is at risk. And that's exactly what we saw in the States. It's exactly what we're seeing now across emerging markets. And it's not just workers, of course, it's also retailers. It's also local indu street executives and companies that are feeling the pain of this.

When we talk about Chinese exports, are we talking about electronics, principolice?

When we talk about Chinese exports, are we talking about electronics, principolice?

What?

What?

What? In some is China exporting to the world.

What? In some is China exporting to the world.

So it started with steel. So they began exporting a few years ago, record amounts of steel to economies like Mexico, like Brazil, as well as Southeast Asia. But something we've noticed is that it's actually become much bigger than that. It's not just steel anymore. It's not just evs, you know, it's not just renewable goods. It's not just batteries. It's everything. It's everything from steel to shoes to calculators.

So it started with steel. So they began exporting a few years ago, record amounts of steel to economies like Mexico, like Brazil, as well as Southeast Asia. But something we've noticed is that it's actually become much bigger than that. It's not just steel anymore. It's not just evs, you know, it's not just renewable goods. It's not just batteries. It's everything. It's everything from steel to shoes to calculators.

Economists are calling this a new China Shock, a term first used to describe the dramatic impact Chinese exports had on the US labor market starting in the late nineteen nineties. This time the shock is more global. But China's big export push is not without some domestic cost. While exports have buoyed the economy as the government seeks to deflate a property bubble, Trump's tariffs are forcing authorities to now ramp up consumer spending to diversify the economy.

Economists are calling this a new China Shock, a term first used to describe the dramatic impact Chinese exports had on the US labor market starting in the late nineteen nineties. This time the shock is more global. But China's big export push is not without some domestic cost. While exports have buoyed the economy as the government seeks to deflate a property bubble, Trump's tariffs are forcing authorities to now ramp up consumer spending to diversify the economy.

Yeah, this is this is kind of a big question for China right now. You can see that the government policy makers in China and twenty twenty five have really made consumption and pivoting to local consumption a big priority exactly because of this. It's a reaction to tariffs, to Trump's tariffs, and it's also an acknowledgement that China cannot simply rely on exports forever to fuel growth. They really need to pivot at some point, something economists and countries around the world have been saying for years now. The first set of tariffs that came in in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen was one of the things that prompted this China shock that we're now seeing globally. One thing that Chinese policymakers need to think about now is not just you West tariffs, but also tariffs from their neighbors and their allies and markets where they thought that it was pretty safe to start selling goods.

Yeah, this is this is kind of a big question for China right now. You can see that the government policy makers in China and twenty twenty five have really made consumption and pivoting to local consumption a big priority exactly because of this. It's a reaction to tariffs, to Trump's tariffs, and it's also an acknowledgement that China cannot simply rely on exports forever to fuel growth. They really need to pivot at some point, something economists and countries around the world have been saying for years now. The first set of tariffs that came in in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen was one of the things that prompted this China shock that we're now seeing globally. One thing that Chinese policymakers need to think about now is not just you West tariffs, but also tariffs from their neighbors and their allies and markets where they thought that it was pretty safe to start selling goods.

Coming up after the break.

Coming up after the break.

The tactics countries are using to fight back against the global China shock, and how Trump's reciprocal tariffs could put those countries in.

The tactics countries are using to fight back against the global China shock, and how Trump's reciprocal tariffs could put those countries in.

An even more difficult situation.

An even more difficult situation.

The tariff's President Trump put in place on China during his first term, redirected a flood of cheap Chinese exports from the US to other countries around the world. In his second term, his administration has already raised tariffs by twenty percent and has threatened further increases. Those tariffs risk sending more cheap Chinese goods and materials around the world, making it hard for other countries to compete. Bloomberg' Katie Dimitrieva says, those other countries are trying to figure out how that can defend themselves. Broadly speaking, what can these countries do to prevent this influx of goods from coming in? Stand up to China? Is it tariffs? This is a reciprocal tariffs, Is it a value added tax? Is it kind of investigations into dumping of materials? Of how are they approaching this kind of change in the economic landscape.

The tariff's President Trump put in place on China during his first term, redirected a flood of cheap Chinese exports from the US to other countries around the world. In his second term, his administration has already raised tariffs by twenty percent and has threatened further increases. Those tariffs risk sending more cheap Chinese goods and materials around the world, making it hard for other countries to compete. Bloomberg' Katie Dimitrieva says, those other countries are trying to figure out how that can defend themselves. Broadly speaking, what can these countries do to prevent this influx of goods from coming in? Stand up to China? Is it tariffs? This is a reciprocal tariffs, Is it a value added tax? Is it kind of investigations into dumping of materials? Of how are they approaching this kind of change in the economic landscape.

Yeah, it's all the above. Several months ago across Southeast Asia, countries were starting to push back on China and these cheap exports. And it was interesting because we had already seen developed economies like the US and Europe atting tariffs, but it was very different that Southeast Asia, which is arguably politically geographically much closer to China, began pushing back as well.

Yeah, it's all the above. Several months ago across Southeast Asia, countries were starting to push back on China and these cheap exports. And it was interesting because we had already seen developed economies like the US and Europe atting tariffs, but it was very different that Southeast Asia, which is arguably politically geographically much closer to China, began pushing back as well.

Thailand has a seven percent value added tax on imported goods below fifty dollars and launched a probe into Temu, China's e commerce giant. Malaysia has its own ten percent sales tax on low value goods, and Vietnam last year ordered Temu and Shen, a similar e commerce site, to suspend operations in the country. Indian authorities have launched investigations into Chinese dumping, and a little further abroad, Mexico is reviewing its own tariffs on Chinese shipments. Indonesia considered a two hundred percent tariff on a range of Chinese goods last year, but fighting back against China carries risks.

Thailand has a seven percent value added tax on imported goods below fifty dollars and launched a probe into Temu, China's e commerce giant. Malaysia has its own ten percent sales tax on low value goods, and Vietnam last year ordered Temu and Shen, a similar e commerce site, to suspend operations in the country. Indian authorities have launched investigations into Chinese dumping, and a little further abroad, Mexico is reviewing its own tariffs on Chinese shipments. Indonesia considered a two hundred percent tariff on a range of Chinese goods last year, but fighting back against China carries risks.

It's interesting because these countries are kind of squeezed right, like they want to maintain good relations with China. And this is why the situation is a bit unprecedented in that places like Indonesia, the leadership wants to maintain good geopolitical relations because they rely a lot on Chinese FDI as part of the Belton Roade initiative and also just general investment.

It's interesting because these countries are kind of squeezed right, like they want to maintain good relations with China. And this is why the situation is a bit unprecedented in that places like Indonesia, the leadership wants to maintain good geopolitical relations because they rely a lot on Chinese FDI as part of the Belton Roade initiative and also just general investment.

FDI stands for foreign direct investment.

FDI stands for foreign direct investment.

So it's not of their best interest, in fact, to take the kinds of steps that President Trump taken in the US. So what they've been left to do is float these very specific tariffs for industries that are the most vocal.

So it's not of their best interest, in fact, to take the kinds of steps that President Trump taken in the US. So what they've been left to do is float these very specific tariffs for industries that are the most vocal.

What is China say in reply to criticism that these other economies are being flooded, that they're facing economic difficulty because of this. What's China's response been.

What is China say in reply to criticism that these other economies are being flooded, that they're facing economic difficulty because of this. What's China's response been.

China has been very quiet about this particular subject. In fact, a reporter at a Chinese Foreign Ministry briefing earlier this month, a reporter from Pakistan and from Pakistani news outlet asked about this exact question, this flood of Chinese goods in neighboring countries, and the response was interesting.

China has been very quiet about this particular subject. In fact, a reporter at a Chinese Foreign Ministry briefing earlier this month, a reporter from Pakistan and from Pakistani news outlet asked about this exact question, this flood of Chinese goods in neighboring countries, and the response was interesting.

Here's that exchange, shared on YouTube by China's CCTV Video News agency.

Here's that exchange, shared on YouTube by China's CCTV Video News agency.

Today's China is an anchor of stability, engine of economic development, and a pillar of regional security. Indust that's that it is common for neighbors to not agree on everything.

Today's China is an anchor of stability, engine of economic development, and a pillar of regional security. Indust that's that it is common for neighbors to not agree on everything.

China's top diplomat basically said, you know, it's common for neighbors not to agree on everything. What we noticed afterwards, though, is that they scrubbed the question from the official record, So it's a subject that is kind of sensitive enough that it gets policymakers to react in that way and kind of make them nervous.

China's top diplomat basically said, you know, it's common for neighbors not to agree on everything. What we noticed afterwards, though, is that they scrubbed the question from the official record, So it's a subject that is kind of sensitive enough that it gets policymakers to react in that way and kind of make them nervous.

There are potentially more US tariffs in the works, meaning nations already dealing with the China shock are now scrambling to prepare for these extra trade barriers with the US. President Trump has said on April second, he's going to implement what the administration is calling reciprocal tariffs. Each one of the US's trade partners would be hit with a tariff rate calculated by taking into account the barriers the US faces to trading with that country, and that means these nations industries will face pressure not just from cheap Chinese imports, but also potentially less demand from the US Among their largest trade partners.

There are potentially more US tariffs in the works, meaning nations already dealing with the China shock are now scrambling to prepare for these extra trade barriers with the US. President Trump has said on April second, he's going to implement what the administration is calling reciprocal tariffs. Each one of the US's trade partners would be hit with a tariff rate calculated by taking into account the barriers the US faces to trading with that country, and that means these nations industries will face pressure not just from cheap Chinese imports, but also potentially less demand from the US Among their largest trade partners.

They are trying as much as possible to get Trump an official on the phone with a varied success rate. They're trying to buy as many US goods or make promises to buy as many US goods as possible, particularly.

They are trying as much as possible to get Trump an official on the phone with a varied success rate. They're trying to buy as many US goods or make promises to buy as many US goods as possible, particularly.

LNG that's liquefied natural gas.

LNG that's liquefied natural gas.

So you're seeing global leaders coming to the White House or releasing statements saying we're open to buy more LNG. And more goods from the US to sort of shrink the trade surplus that some countries have with the US. That many countries have with the US because the US is the world's biggest economies with the most hungry consumers, and so there's communication, trying to negotiate, trying to make promises to buy more things. That's been the big step so far. And industries are preparing for a flood, a renewed flood of goods hitting their shores.

So you're seeing global leaders coming to the White House or releasing statements saying we're open to buy more LNG. And more goods from the US to sort of shrink the trade surplus that some countries have with the US. That many countries have with the US because the US is the world's biggest economies with the most hungry consumers, and so there's communication, trying to negotiate, trying to make promises to buy more things. That's been the big step so far. And industries are preparing for a flood, a renewed flood of goods hitting their shores.

Is the playbook fundamentally the same. Are we likely to see sort of what happened during the first Trump term happen again in countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam.

Is the playbook fundamentally the same. Are we likely to see sort of what happened during the first Trump term happen again in countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam.

Yeah, it really depends on what the reciprocal tariffs look like right now. We don't know what the administration is looking at in terms of the number, you know, will it be a tiered system, Will every country get its own rate, Will there even be a rate that's announced, Will there be carveouts, will there be caveats, will there be space for other industries? This is what all of these industries across the world right now, especially the biggest trading for US's biggest trading partners, they're trying to negotiate that right now not looking very hopeful. So you know, what we could see is in some ways a repeat of the first Trump trade war, where you have just rapid fire developments, especially in the first year, you have the tariffs come in. Similar to what happened in the first term, tariffs on China did come in, but over period of a year of negotiations, additional tariffs were not put in place, and so you know the timeframe of this happening. In some ways, it just gets kind of elongated, so we could be in for a bit of a wait before you know everything the dust is settled. In some ways, it will be very different, though, I mean the main difference is that Trump's trade war has gone global, and so every country, even if you don't have tariffs placed directly on you, will be impacted in some way.

Yeah, it really depends on what the reciprocal tariffs look like right now. We don't know what the administration is looking at in terms of the number, you know, will it be a tiered system, Will every country get its own rate, Will there even be a rate that's announced, Will there be carveouts, will there be caveats, will there be space for other industries? This is what all of these industries across the world right now, especially the biggest trading for US's biggest trading partners, they're trying to negotiate that right now not looking very hopeful. So you know, what we could see is in some ways a repeat of the first Trump trade war, where you have just rapid fire developments, especially in the first year, you have the tariffs come in. Similar to what happened in the first term, tariffs on China did come in, but over period of a year of negotiations, additional tariffs were not put in place, and so you know the timeframe of this happening. In some ways, it just gets kind of elongated, so we could be in for a bit of a wait before you know everything the dust is settled. In some ways, it will be very different, though, I mean the main difference is that Trump's trade war has gone global, and so every country, even if you don't have tariffs placed directly on you, will be impacted in some way.

This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera. This episode was produced by Alex Tie. It was edited by Tracy Sanduelson and Daniel ten Kate. It was fact checked by Adrian A. Tapia and mixed and sound designed by Alex Segura. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster. Bor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera. This episode was produced by Alex Tie. It was edited by Tracy Sanduelson and Daniel ten Kate. It was fact checked by Adrian A. Tapia and mixed and sound designed by Alex Segura. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso, Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster. Bor Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts.

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Episode, make sure to subscribe and review you The Big Take Wherever you listen to podcasts, it helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow