From celebrity wedding details to the timing of military strikes, prediction markets have opened the door to gambling on almost anything. They’ve also created a new class of insider trader that platforms and US regulators are racing to stop.

On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s Denitsa Tsekova and Leonardo Nicoletti join host Sarah Holder to break down a $200 million surge in unusual bets on Polymarket — and explore what it will take for regulators to rein them in.

Read more: Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader

We have a special Bloomberg subscription offer for podcast listeners at Bloomberg.com/podcastoffer.

Hosted by Sarah Holder; Produced by Rachael Lewis-Krisky and Victor Swezey; Reported by Denitsa Tsekova and Leonardo Nicoletti; Edited by Aaron Edwards and Julia Weaver.

Fact-checking by Victor Swezey, Laura Newcombe and David Fox; Engineering by Emma Munger.

Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin; Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver. Executive Producer: Nicole Beemsterboer.

From celebrity wedding details to the timing of military strikes, prediction markets have opened the door to gambling on almost anything. They&rsquo;ve also created a new class of insider trader that platforms and US regulators are racing to stop.
On today&rsquo;s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg&rsquo;s Denitsa Tsekova and Leonardo Nicoletti join host Sarah Holder to break down a $200 million surge in unusual bets on Polymarket &mdash; and explore what it will take for regulators to rein them in.
Read more: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-polymarket-traders-who-knew-the-future/?srnd=homepage-americas">Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader</a>
We have a special Bloomberg subscription offer for podcast listeners at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/podcasts">Bloomberg.com/podcastoffer.</a>
Hosted by Sarah Holder; Produced by Rachael Lewis-Krisky and Victor Swezey; Reported by Denitsa Tsekova and Leonardo Nicoletti; Edited by Aaron Edwards and Julia Weaver.
Fact-checking by Victor Swezey, Laura Newcombe and David Fox; Engineering by Emma Munger.
Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin; Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver. Executive Producer: Nicole Beemsterboer.

The Big Take from Bloomberg News brings you inside what’s shaping the world's economies with the smartest and most informed business reporters around the world. The context you need on the stories that can move markets. Every afternoon.

The Big Take from Bloomberg News brings you inside what’s shaping the world's economies with the smartest and most informed business reporters around the world. The context you need on the stories that can move markets. Every afternoon.

Big Take

Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With A New Class of Insider Trader

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/clips/ca3b624b-a9fa-4861-83e9-b48d01577951/transcript