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Economists Missed Again—Tariff Doom Predictions Fall Apart

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In this episode of the Ben Ferguson Show podcast, Ben examines new findings on tariffs, inflation, and productivity growth, and discuss what they believe the results say about media and economic forecasts that predicted severe inflationary consequences. They also take a deep dive into America’s growing national debt, reviewing Congressional Budget Office projections, federal spending trends, interest costs, and reports from the Government Accountability Office on fraud, improper payments, and government waste. The conversation explores the scale of federal borrowing, the burden of rising debt, and the policy choices that have contributed to the nation’s current fiscal position. 

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is challenging one of the most common criticisms of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. While critics predicted tariffs would trigger significant inflation, the study found that productivity gains in many tariff-affected industries offset much of the added cost pressure. At the same time, a separate economic warning is emerging. The United States has officially surpassed $40 trillion in national debt, raising questions about federal spending, deficits, interest payments, and long-term fiscal sustainability. 

Topics Covered:

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Boston research on tariffs and inflation
  • Productivity growth in industries most affected by tariffs
  • Core PCE inflation and the impact of higher production costs
  • The U.S. national debt surpassing $40 trillion
  • Rising federal interest payments and budget deficits
  • Government Accountability Office findings on fraud, improper payments, and waste

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