Greg recaps Tuesday’s MLB results, talks to Jon Jansen of FOX Sports Philadelphia The Gambler about which Wild Card team(s) can make a deep run in October, the importance of the Phillies having a bye, & the importance of managing this time of year, & Greg picks & handicaps EVERY Wednesday MLB game!
Spreadsheet link: https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/greg-petersons-daily-handicapped-mlb-lines/
Podcast Highlights
3:57-Recap of Tuesday's results
14:15-Interview with Jon Jansen
39:14-Start of Picks Tigers vs Astros
44:10-Picks & analysis for Royals vs Orioles
48:53-Picks & analysis for Mets vs Brewers
53:28-VSIN Website Pick Braves vs Padres
Breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host, Greg Peterson.
Hey Warmer, brother Low, Welcome to Lovely Las Vegas for the Baseball Betting Show with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the Vison Family Podcast. We've be on excellent podcast for us. We're gonna be joining at segment number two by John Jansen. It does great workover at Fox Sports Philadelphia Gambler. We're gonna be chatting with him about what he made out of the games that we saw for Tuesday in the wildcard round. Halib the Phillies avoiding the Wildcard round. That is a good thing for them. Of them in the first two years of this format, teams have had the buye, they've had a little bit of struggle. We're gonna be diving in on that topic as well. We're gonna be taking a look at the games now we had for Wednesday, and because of what the Milwaukee Birds did on Tuesday, we're gonna be talking about the importance of managers not screwing up these games as well. So we're gonna have some thoughts there. That's gonna be a lot of fun at segment number two. In the final segment, we've got four wonderful wildcard games for this Wildcard Wednesday, I'm gonna give you guys picks an analysis on all four as we touch them all and if you do have a question, comment, segment, idea, whatever you for this podcast. You have under two ways field for those in first, one is my Twitter slash x timeline at you Underscorty one. Keep in mind letter ZM maybe does not matter sized for usual, please send these into the timeline. The other way to sign an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast five stars that it's very much appreciated. From there, you're able fire in whatever you'd like to hear on this podcast. By that five star review, you're not getting any Twitter slash x questions today. But we had a great day baseball on Tuesday. Let's take a look back at it. Tried to find some trends and try to get to know these scenes all a little bit better.
Games for yesterday is Greig buzzing about. Here is the rowdy recap.
The Orioles have been your top team in the American League to the overall season long, but they't got as many runs as myself on Tuesday and the Visa website write a pick was on the Kansay Royals that plus money on the money line and it hit one to zero. The Royals get the job done. Bobby Wood Jr. And RBI single in the sixth inning is all that the team needed. As Cole Reagan's sixth goal of settings, I think that he left a little bit early due to some cramping, but the bullpen from there was able to do their job. Sammy longest score is setting Chris with the kay Boobach Lucas serrasage. They piece meal together the final two innings scoreless as well. And for the Orioles, I mean Corbyn Burns did a fine job. You betched eight ennings. He gave up one run and most games that is good enough to win. Kagan akins or Anthey to Demingas. From there they get the final three outs. Absolutely no ice for the Baltimoreoals at the plate five bits, no runs, and it's not something similar for the Houston Astros, who have made seven straight alcs's and the Detroit Tigers, they just don't stop winning in games that are meaningful. Because they did lose those two games to the Chicago White sackx but three to one the Detroit Tigers find a way to get the job done. They do leave eleven men on base, but they go three to thirteen with men in scoring position in they get to from Bravaldez early enough and four and a third innings three runs allowed. The bullpen from there did a solid job as they threw rounal Blanco for two score of settings. Actor Narris, Brian King, they both give you a pair of outside the bullpen squirals. Cale Ferguson gave you an odd as well, and Josh Hader throws for a school of setting. But for the Detroit Tigers streaks Google he's gonna win the American Lake Sye Young and he looked very much like at six squirrel settings Will Vest Tyler Holton. From there they combined for two squirrel settings and Olton congratulations. He is going to be getting the start on Wednesday as well. Don't see that very often as Jason Fully gets it out on the bullpen and then bow Brisky he gets the final two out, says Fully did allow that one run in the ninth inning as he had neared he has be able to get an RBI single and there was a very, very big situation with the Asters having the bases loaded in the nineth ending. Brisky, a former starter, was able to get out of it. The high scoring game of the day went in Milwaukee as eight to four. The Mets were able to put it on the Milwaukee Burs. Just some bad managing year from the Milwaukee Bars. I say this as a man from the state of Wisconsin. Freddy Peralta gives up three runs over the course of four innings, but he gave up all three of those runs in the second ending. He had retired nine straight and then from there he gets pulled and they put in your buy him, so he gives up three runs at two thirds of ending. Aaron Ashby, he gives up two runs without getting a single out before Nick Meers gives you four. Outside the bullpen Squirrels Aaron Savali was a projected game to start a three squirrellss settings of mop up Dude. He as for the Milwaukee Brewers, they go four to thirteen with men in scoring position, and for the Mets, this was not what they were hoping for out of Luis Severino, but they saved the bullpen by having him stick with it. And for the Mets, they really needed him too because they had to play that double dip on Monday. But four runs, three of which were earned, given up by Severino. From there it was a B two squirrels settings. Ryan Sanek was able to supply a squirrel setting of his own as a verst. And I've been one of your top over teams in all baseball. It's been much more, shall we say, bear here in the second half of the season. But eighty three over, sixty nine unders and eleven pushes. They were able to cast you in over there. As for the Mets, they go five to seven men in scoring position in this one, and then in the nightcap you saw the San Diego Potters take it to the Inlanta Braves by count of ford to zero. As a j Smith, Schwever turned out to be the starting picture of mystery. And it was not great. Three runs allowed and he got four out says going deep off of him. It was home run number one of the postseas for Fernando Tatis Junior. Overall during the regular season, I believe he had had twenty one, So that's number twenty two for him and Kyli gosh Yoka during the regular season was getting a home run every about thirteen to fourteen that pats He was able to go deep as well. That came a little bit later on the game off of Luke Jackson, who went two innings a line that's a home run. Aaron Bummer was able to piece meal together two and two thirds endings score a Tesse Shavez two scoreless signings, but nothing doing up the King as Michael King twelve punch outs, seven score of setnings. Jason Adam Robert Swarz from there both able to turn the score of signing as Jason Adam actually struck out the side. And if you look at what we got in Major League Baseball on Tuesday, only one Favorite was able to win and that was the San Diego padresu and got it done very easily against the Atlanta Braves. So the Unders went three in one and the Favorites went one in three. If you're looking overall for the baseball season, it is as tight as it gets with regards to what we've been seeing in terms of the total says. Right now we've got one thy, one hundred and sixty four overs, one and sixty eight hunder so Andrews actually have the lead on overs right now, favorites overall for the season ending at about fifty seven percent thirteen hundred and ninety and ony twenty six. In terms of the favorites on the money line, if you look at the last three days in Major League Baseball, favorites have been anting right around about fifty eight percent two seventeen and one fifty seven on the money line, with the under really starting to take old one hundred and sixty three unders to one hundred and eighty nine overs. So that's where we're seeing a Major League Baseball right now, and that's what we all got on Tuesday. Now, let's talk about the Wildcard round itself. Let's dive in a little bit more on these matchups and take a look at why getting the buye was a very good thing for the Philadelphia philis. We'll be chatting about that and so much more of John Jains and the Fox Sports Philadelphia Gambler on the Bob site. Here on the Baseball Betting Show it myself, Greg Peter said, now a part of the Beason Family.
Podcasts breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host Greg Peterson, Every Ray, your love.
You Las Vegas for the baseball betting shoe with myself Craig Peterson now part of the Easton family and podcasts, and it is always great to be joined by this fan. As we've got John Jansen a board. He does interrepidous job over at Fox Sports Philadelphia the Gambler taking a look at this great game of baseball that we all know and love. But if it's happening out there in Philadelphia, he's covering it. That includes the Philadelphia Phillies, which things are looking on the up and up for them, things are looking much better than they are right now. For oh, I don't know the Philadelphia Eagles and their quarterback and coach shall we say relationship. We don't know what we're gonna be getting out of the seventy six ers, But I know he does a great job with Villanova as well. They're football and basketball teams. And here will follow John on Twitter, slishecks at Jay Jansen thirty four, go in for the sports, stay for the gaming and also movie reviews, and John, it's always good to get you a board. Thank you, Yeah, thanks.
For having me. And of course, as we see with some of these wild cards. I'm glad that the Phillies avoided it. So it's already been kind of a mess out there for some of the top seeds.
Yep, absolutely, we are doing this prior to the Braziers is a Padres game, but we know the results of the first three games, and three games three underdogs as far as we record that. Just what have you made out of this? Because I didn't think that the underdogs were gonna be going over by any stretch of the imagination. And well, you've got pitchers like Dreik's Koba and you've got out there as well Cole Reagan's, You're always gonna give yourself a chance to win. But the way that the Mets took it to the Birs after having playing two games Monday, like I said TBD on Braziers is Podres that one. I would be a little bit surprised if the Braves won. But all in all, was a very good Tuesday for the Dogs.
Yeah, it really was. It was so funny that Phillies fans were kind of worried, you know, what if the time off isn't good for them, stuff like that, But the Phillies are the best example of a team that just gets into the wildcard kind of sneaks in, then all of a sudden they make these runs. So yeah, it's not surprising like it's happened the past couple of years. The Rangers, Diamondbacks, Phillies all big examples of teams that we aren't sure if they should into the wildcard and what they're going to be once they get to the playoffs, and then all of a sudden, you know, it's just baseball. In three games, things can happen quickly, and especially as you just said, all three pitchers being very good, at least two of those guys in schoobl and Reagan's being very good. See, that's why the wildcard. I know, maybe the teams the top seeds who get the bye week haven't been doing as well. But the problem is wildcards random, and I think we're seeing again the wildcards just being absolutely random.
Yeah, it has been really insane to take a look at it. And how much of that randomness do you think is going to be lingering into the division round Because in this new format in Major League Baseball, we've seen it two years and both years in the National Leaga team has come from the Wildcard round and have made it all the way to the World Series, including to Phillies two seasons ago, and I just fear that that might happen once again. Not necessarily because the format itself really hurts Season one in two seats, but I do think that with the San Diego Padres, they have a chance to be able to get there. And along those lines as well, the Mets and the Padres are two of the top three teams at all Baseball record wise since the beginning of the month of June.
Yeah, and I mean, look, there wasn't any great team this year. No team got over one hundred wins. Phillies weren't close, Dodgers got a little close. Some of these teams are really that good. In The Dodgers are coming in with a lot of pitching issues, a lot of pitching injuries, and we know pitching is such a premium when it comes to the playoffs, and the Phillies, you know, dealing sort of with their own pitching problems. Ranger Suarez has been himself, Christopher Sanchez has been kind of up and down. I trust Nola and Wheeler, but still third pitcher is important and I'm not sure where to begin with a third pitcher. Yeah, I mean there's no juggernaut team. Absolutely the Mets or the Brewers can beat the Phillies, and absolutely the Padres and the Braves can beat the Dodgers. Even though I'm with you, I kind of think Padres look Padres to me, are a team that's well equipped to be handling a long run into the postseason. But as much as I think three games is a random, five games still is pretty random in baseball. Seven games is where it gets really tough. The division of rounds too, the small sample size with this play format. But I think I can say kind of expected at this point, kind of expect one of these top seeds in either of these leagues to go down, just because that's just what has been happening so far in baseball in this playoff format, and I think this year it is even set up again for that to happen.
Absolutely, As John Jansen, who does great workover at Fox Sports Philadelphia Gambler is joining me right here on the Baseball Betting Show, And how much do you make out the formats some of these teams came in with in recent weeks as well, because right now, we've got a team in the Astros that they were one of the best teams in the second half of the season as well. They're one game away from elimination, though as we know, they have been in this spot before they made seven straight alcs's. But the Tigers were once again that team that since the fourth of July they were the hottest team in the American League. Somehow, some way, here they are without anyone having hit for twenty five home runs, without anyone having one hundred and fifty plus sins like there are just so many things that the Segas team does not have. But it's one of those classic cases. I say this so much in college basketball, and I'm so glad that I get to say it here. For the Detroit Tigers, the hole is greater than the sub of its parts. Right now that that hole is getting them right to one game away from the next round to the playoffs.
Yeah it is. I don't know how much form or how good a team is playing coming into the postseason. I just know that it's random. And when you have a pitcher like school Bawl in a three game series and he can get you off to the start that he did no, Yeah, then that puts a lot of pressure on Houston to win these next two games, and we know the pressure has kind of gotten to teams after going down a one in the Wildcard round. So that's more of it to me of the equation than what's the team's form, because I think two years ago, if I remember correctly, the Phillies were not playing well heading into the postseason and that's when they made the World Series run. I even think Texas was kind of falling apart a little bit before they got into the postseason last year and ended up going on the World Series run. So I don't know if form how a team is playing the weeks leading up to the postseason matter to me. It's just that once they get in, as you just said, some of it, its parts are greater. You know. Yeah, I think for one hundred and sixty two game season it would be tough for Detroit, and it was tough for Detroit and they had to make this insane run just to get into the postseason. But once you do get into the postseason, your rotation shortened up. You're obviously not going that deep into your lineup, and that's where I think some teams can shine. And you know, that's exactly what happened with Kansas City with Reagans, and it's exactly what happened with Detroit and scoopl so far. So once those things tighten up, yeah, then the top guys in your line, of the top guys in your rotation can kind of take over a series. And I think we're going to be seeing that a lot. But yeah, I'm with you. I'm more for looking at the sum of its parts things like that. Then I would be looking at how is that team playing the couple of weeks leading up, because to me, I just don't see any correlation with a team playing so hot going into the postseason and then postseason six tests.
Absolutely, and John, we do have the two American League games on the board right now as we look at it as the Astros, they are going to look to stave off elimination as it's going to be. I can't believe I'm saying this, but in a playoff game, Tyler Holton and the rest of the bullpen, I would think that you're probably seeing a poop poo plighter of Reese Olsen and Tyler Holton as both guys further Detroit Tigers. But that's honestly a little bit of a guess going for them going up against Hunter Brown and the Houston Asters. With the Asters about minus one sixty minus one seventy, is this a situation where you want to bank on the experience of the Asters? But or again, do we just take a look at this The Trey Tigers team as all this momentum, they just keep it going and they find a way to be able to provide money as a plus money underdog.
Yeah, I would take my chance on the plus money underdog. And I hate to say do it blindly because that's never a good way to bet. But all the pressure to me is on Houston to win these next two games, and we've seen a lot. Once you go up one zero, you just need one of these next two. I would take the big underdog, or at least a slightly big underdog, and take the chance of I know, it's not the ideal pitching matchup. It's not the ideal situation that you want to bet on for Detroit right now with the pitching that they're going to be throwing out there, but still they can win that game. They're going to be throwing their best relievers out there and they know they're going to have to hit. I don't know. To me in these situations, it's really hard because in the regular season, you know, you know what pitcher is kind of matchup. Yeah, I would be looking Houston, but the circumstance leads to something different for me, because the pressure of a team down zero to one at home, and this is the team that you know, they always have expectations, and here comes Detroit just kind of clawing and scratching their way, and they're seeming to be able to do it well. They're hitting well enough, they're playing well enough baseball. I think they can find a way again. And I would like to be taking plus money on a team like that.
And if this gets a game three, CBS and Fangrass right now projecting Kadeer Montero going for the Detroit Tigers, and I am sure that the Detroit Tigers would love to avoid that. And then we've got the Royals versus the Orioles, with it being Zach Goflin against Seth Lugo, and right now the Orioles do find themselves as about a minus one forty two to a minus one fifty or so favorite at a total seven and a half. Do want to get your thoughts here, because with Seth Lugo, I just have soured on him a little bit towards the back half the season because he is one of those guys in which ball isn't play quite a bit on him. And for Cole Wagan's he was absolutely maskfull for the Royals. But it felt like the Royals completely sold out to be able to get that Game one win. They use up all of their best bullpen pieces. They were able to hang on for dear life. And this is a Royals offense that since September one, they have scored the fewest runs of any team in all Major League Baseball, and that includes a wildcard game that we saw on Tuesday as well. So I have my trepidations on them being able to close out here in Game number two.
Yeah, this one becomes a little bit more difficult for me, just because you're right, they're not hitting the ball. Well, have some reservations about that because you imagine at some point Baltimore's gonna hit. The lineup is too good, They're going to hit at some point. And again, as you just mentioned, the Royals already used up a lot of some good arms in their bullpen. I imagine at some point Baltimore is going to score some runs. The only thing I would say for the Kansas City side is that they seem to be okay playing these flow scoring games, and they seem to be pitching well. And maybe, you know, Baltimore, their bullpen isn't great either, and Kansas City can find a couple of runs against a bullpen, so they can keep this close enough, they can stay within this game, and they get to a really bad Baltimore bullpen, maybe they stay in it. But I'm a little afraid of that, only because I think Baltimore could probably put up some runs early here. Again, it's an offense that's not going to be stifled for too long. Maybe it is, though, again the pressure of a team getting into the postseason. They've had expectations. I don't think they necessarily played as well as they thought they were going to this year. So it's a team that it was kind of floundering towards the end. Maybe that's everything that kind of comes crashing down on them. But again, I think that lineup's too good. The pitching matchups a right pier four where I think Baltimore can at least take one here, and I'm willing to take it on a money line that I don't think is too high.
Yep, I'm right there with you. This is one where I certainly do think that there's a bit of value on the favorite. And even though we don't have a line for this one, because with the nature of postseason baseball, you're not going to get a line up until the game finishes up, so we're not going to be getting that Patres versus Atlanta Braves opener until late at night. But that's that we know that it's gonna be Max Freed against Joe Musgrove and win or lose for the Atlanta Braves. I just have not liked the recent form of Max Freed. When we saw this lined up to be Max Freed going on tour rest against Michael King, we were seeing openers right around about minus one forty or so, so I can't think that you're going to be finding anything lower than that on the San Diego Patres. I would think that this comes out at like probably minus one twenty five minus one thirty would be my guest. And if we get that sort of a number, would you be tempted to take a look at the Potters because I feel like I'm like the New York Mets, who rested and gave two of that double header. This Atlanta Braves team come into San Diego just completely gassed, and if Max Free can't give them seven plus good endings, I just fear that everything that has happened the last few days catches up with them.
Yeah, and you know, the Mets. To me, I know it was very close between the Mets and the Braves, and the Mets needed to beat the Braves in Game one or at least in one of those games in the doubleheaded them at the postseason. It was very close, but the Mets had been playing better. Like the Mets really had to dig themselves out of what was a really bad start. The Mets aren't good baseball team. I feel like the Braves have just been struggling to get by and as you said, like kind of gassed exhausted in a way. Maybe that could just be, you know, some of the pitching things, and obviously some of the injuries, Chris Sale being one of those, not even on the roster, but a lot of guys just had down years. They were getting production from players. I don't think they were expecting to get production from pitching staff is obviously dealt with a bunch of injuries. As you said, Max Freed hasn't been all that sharp. I'm amazed that they're even in so like it is a big congrats for even doing something I didn't think they were capable of doing with everything that was happen opening with them this year. But I just think that that tank has got to run out soon, and they just have too many guys that aren't playing up to their you know, numbers and up to their averages. Just so many down years, so many injury problems, pitching problems. I just think at some point it's going to get exhausted, and I think it could happen here after fighting so hard just to get into the postseason, you know, I think it's really going to be tough for them to even stay close to a Padres team that I think, you know, really has a great arsenal lineup, pitching staff, all of it. Seeing the has postseason experience, played well and have been playing well, I just think this series could be a little bit lopsided, and especially that game too, I still think it could be a lopsided, Oh.
No question about it. I think that this is a one series where I take a look at it. It's like, man, congratulations to the Braves for being able to make the postseason.
Yeah, I don't know how they did it. I really don't.
Just like we were talking about the Royals sod alled out in Game one, the Braves had to compoletely solid to make the playoffs. I just fear that they're gonna be completely out of gas, says. You do have John Janson of Fox Sports Philadelphia Gambler joining me on the Baseball Bettings showing right now as we are doing this podcast, I will be honest with you, I don't know who the Brewers are going to be starting in Game two, because we thought it was going to be Aaron Savali. He had to throw the final three innings for the Milwaukee Brewers pretty much save the bullpen, and right now, if you're looking, it's undecided across the board for the Milwaukee Brewers. They can throw Frankie montas Tobias Myers last threw on Saturday. I guess you could go dl Hall and go with the poop poo plider pitchers from there, right now I'm seeing early openers of the brus minus one fifteen against Shyam mine who, truth be told, they banged around last week when Sean Minea played against the Milwaukee Bers. But how do you take a look at a Brewers team that, in some former capacity, regardless of whose stars, they're probably gonna need to try to piece meal game two together, whether that be Frankie Montas or to try to save Frankie Montas for a winner take all game three.
Yeah, situation that I would love to be in for Milwaukee.
I don't know why they throw air as a volume long relief. I understand saving the bullpen, but that's your game to starter.
Yeah, and you really don't have another great option unless their option is just like continue to throw. They didn't want to throw their entire bullpen away, and they're comfortable maybe throwing as you just said, Montass or just making this a strictly a bullpen game. I have no idea. I guess saving your bullpen for a game too, because as we may as we mentioned before, you know, bullpen is a big thing, and they already kind of figured that they were going to lose that game. I don't know, it's It's a very interesting decision, and I guess one to just kind of load up and make sure your bullpen is all ready to go for a game too. But I love where the Mets are at. You know, Mets have been playing in great baseball. That lineup's great. Francisco Indoor has not only been an MVP caliber player, even though he's never gonna win MVP and a lot of people try to say he could, but he was playing at an MVP caliber this season. He's shown up big for them. You know, they just have a lineup that is scrappy that has been able to put up a bunch of runs. I like that team. Milwaukee to me, I knew would be a little bit vulnerable in the postseason, and right now it just seems like they are in a very, very very vulnerable spot. And I feel like it's a Mets team that again has been playing really well for the second half of the season. Pretty much most of the season, except for like this really bad start that they had, They've been one of the best teams in baseball in the past few months. I think the Mets are ready to just kind of pounce on it, kind of finish what they've started here in this Brewer series and all the way leading up to this, going even back to the doubleheader with the Braves on Monday. So to me, it's the Mets.
You know.
I hate to be so much on underdogs all the time and speak this highly of a Mets team that I know has some issues seam and I is not great. His underlying numbers always stink, so I never can trust him. But man, it's a team that's just hit the ball really well, played, you know, good defense, and even been able to find some way for Anaya to pitch. Well, I'm all in on the Mets for a game two. I don't know if that's the right way to do it, but I am pretty much all in on this Mets team of the Wildcard round.
And I piggybacked off of this as well, and I think that this is going to be big for looking at the rest of the postseason as well as we do have John Chanson to Fox Sports Philadelphia. Gambler joined me on the Baseball Batting Show, and I pin a lot of that loss that we saw from the burs on Pat Murphy, who pulled the starter after team was up four to three. He decides to go away from Freddie Peralta, he goes with the bullpen. From there, that causes him to use aarons evalulate. How much do you want to be looking at these managers that, for lack of a better term, they try to over complicate things, which I really thought was the case for the Burs. I still go back to twenty twenty one when Dave Roberts decided to throw Ouhjias out the bullpen. That was the beginning of the end for them. And how much do you want to maybe not look at the smartest man in the room for the manager spot, but look at the guy that's just going to flat out, for lack of a better term, not completely screw it up. Because I feel like the Burgers said that on Tuesday.
It's the not getting the way kind of thing. Yes, and we've seen it happen, you know, and paying very close attention to these Phillies playoff runs. I think the Padres are a really good example of it, you know, waiting to go to Josh Hater at the end of the game because all these decisions we can definitely there is two sides of it, and you know, always the result is going to maybe dictate what we think about the decision. But there are decisions that you know, are managers that you feel aren't really in tune with their bullpenner for I know how to figure it out. That's one reason why I do like the Phillies. Rob Thompson has kind of figured out the whole bullpen thing. He's done a great job with it. I know, maybe Jose Alvarado a couple of years ago, he threw too much and nobody liked that, but still he was comfortable with how he was using his guys and it worked almost the entire postseason, getting them into a couple wins away from winning a World Series. So it's hard to gauge, certainly with a team like the Padres. Definitely, I question, you know, Dave Roberts, I question managerial decisions, especially when it comes to a starting rotation and a pitching staff that has been dealing with a lot of injuries. But I think it's more I look at managers that do seem to have sort of a good understanding of how they like to use their bullpen, and I think, you know, a manager like Rob Thompson, I'll go all four, But you know guys that are taking out I thought the city was going to do it for a second with Reagan's they took him out of it apparently at cramp, So it wasn't really a managerial decision. It was more of an injury and a cramp that dictated that one. But yeah, those are things to look out for, especially managers that I think Yanks starting pitchers a little bit too early. That always is a bad sign for me. Managers that are very strong and stay strong with the starting pitcher and not be too afraid just kind of let him roll a little bit. Those are managers I feel like always end up doing a much better job than ones that are trying to overcomplicate thing with the bullpen.
Yep. And it will indeed be Frankie Montas for the Milwaukee Ers as they're going to try to piecemeal things together. And I think your reaction and my reaction says it.
All right there, Yeah, you're real excited about it.
Oh, such mismanagement. Fortunately we don't have this on the podcast. This podcast knows to bring on something try It and True and the great analysis of you, John Jansson, It is very much Try and Drew. You do a great job over at Fox Sports. Philadelphia Gambler. You do a great job looking at this wonderful game of bait. So let me get people at home know what's all on tap for you and how people can fall on on social media and other platforms.
Yeah, you can just follow me at j Janssen thirty four on Twitter. I'm sure I'll be talking a lot about the postseason. Of course, the Phillies get started this weekend. Really excited obviously for some red October again here. It's always a great time of year in this city when there's red October baseball, and there's plenty of that. So yeah, at Jay Jansen thirty four at Fox Pechow Gambler, we will be all over Billy's coverage and of course all the betting angles as well.
Be absolutely and John does such great work taking a look at this great game that we all know in love of baseball, and every single time he joins me land such good insight. So big thanks for John for joining me on the Baseball Betting Show now part of the Visa Family Podcast and coming next it is that time of the podcast. I give you bick sent analysis for all four Wildcard games. Ere we got for this baseball Wednesday, as we had come.
On breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host, Greg Peter, EverBank.
Your love you Las Vegas for the Baseball Betting Shoe with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the Visa Family podcasts. Always great to be joined by John James and it does absolutely amazing workover at Fox Sports Philadelphia. Gambler taking a look at this great game of baseball that we all know and love. Every single time he joins me makes us just a little bit smarter and did so once again today as it is going to be a fun day of baseball today, so big thanks to him for joining me in last segment. Now it is that time the podcast they give you picks and analysis on all four games for this Wildcard Wednesday as we touch them all.
If a game is listed on the betting board, Greg has a side and a total on it, so it is time to touch them all.
Do you not that, as per usual, any changes that are made to these plays will be listened up on my Twitter slash ks feed at gin and r score Toy one. We're going with the two American League games first in time order, and then the two National League games in time orders. So it'll be Tigers versus Astros, the Royals versus the Oriols, Mets Brewers, and then the Barravos and the San Diego Padres. So let's got things started with nine to fifteen. Nine to sixteen on the card. It is the Asters playing us to the Detroit Tigers, says Tyler. Holten will be your opener for Detroit, and under Brown is on the bump four of the Astros Asters between minus one sixty to minus one seventy favorites between plus one forty two to plus one fifty is at number one Detroit. Seven a half is the total the ofference between minus one five to a minus one fifteen, and same goes for the under. And I'm gonna be defaulty to the u Ston Asters. If you're looking to lay run half with them, you're gonna be getting that at a plus one thirty needed at least a plus one twenty eight. I'm gonna stay away from the money line. I was willing to lay up to a minus one sixty six there, but I'm gonna go with the run line just because with the Detroit Tigers, I think that this might be their most vulnerable game, because this is sort of gonna be the poopoop phider pitchers sort of game. I was sinking that perhaps you could get Resulsen, but as we know with Ree Sulsen, he's been as a starter, only going about three innings since coming off the end list, has not necessarily looked like himself. So I think that you're gonna get hold probably for two innings, says Tyler. Holten has been good and really it's a tire. Detroit Tiger's bullpen has been good a two seventy one ERA since the beginning of the month of August. That's actually the best in the entire American League. That's even better than the Cleveland Guardians in that time span. And it's going to be an all hands on deck sort of game. After Treeke Scooble gave them some really good length and game number one, I could actually see a combination of Brent Herder along with results and as well as Herder has been able to give you about a two fifty eighty RA think that there might be a little bit of regression coming in from he's only been getting about seven a half strike cuts Bernian and innings, but has been really good at keeping the ball in the yards zero playing eight home runs, Berni and Ennings a lot. And that's really all these guys is. You've got the likes of the closer in Jason Foley, Will Vest, You're able to throw in their bow Risky. Just a whole bunch of guys with a sub three to sixty area with Sean Gunther, Brent and Hennefy having some two eras. But Hunter Brown has been very impressive in his own right. Hunter Brown is a little bit more of a strikeout guy that is going to be able to give you about nine and a half straight cuts Pernie and Ennings, and he had a really rough start to the season. He was able to pick it up late and I do think that he's going to be able to deliver with a bullpen behind him that ranks in the top six in the big leagues in terms of bullpenning Ray. As we know, Josh Hader has had his upset his hounds all throughout the season, but you've got the Brians, Brian King, Brian Obray. You they've been dealing with injuries to ten Or Scott, but overall this is a bullpen that does rank at the top eight in the big leagues in terms of Bullpenny Ray. Ever since the beginning of the month of May, Ectoranrris, Ever since he came back to the East sinatras As, he's been very up and down, to say the least. I'm sure that the Cubs were not too sad when he left. He's had a four to seventy ARRA, so that's been a little bit rough for the team. But I do think that Hunter Brown is going to be able to go out there and just be able to continue to deliver as the biggest thing for a Hunter Brown has been he has been able to reduce on the walks that was absolutely killing him during the twenty twenty three season towards the early part of the twenty twenty four campaign. As if you look at things, ever since June eighth, he's been in a span of nineteen starts, providing at two to twenty ERA. In this SIME span, his walks per nine right is sub three right around about two point six two point seven walks Bernie and As. He's been getting a little bit north of knees recouts for nine and andies, which is actually a little bit down for his standards, but with the Astros, it's also about just getting more offense than you got yesterday. Because Jordan Alvarez, he was able to come back off the injured list slash. He was just dealing with injury in general. I don't think they officially hit the injured list, but multiple it's after he was dealing with inflammation in that final week of the regular season, So that's going to be big for them. Ose Al twove a line with you and your das. These are guys that during the regular season at above A two ninety five with the combined thirty six home runs, power a little bit down for all two A, but still does a good job be able to move the line. It's the bottom of the lineup. Can you get the likes of Victor Karantini, Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Paine, Guys that donate for a ton of power, but between about it ten sixty five to two to two seventy during the regular season. Can you be able to get a little bit out of them? And for the Detroit Tigers, I love using this phrase on my baseball podcast and I'll use it here. The whole is greater than the sub of its parts. You don't have a lot of guys that are going out there and mashing. Their leader in home runs was Riley Green twenty four home runs is three point fifty or so on base was leading the team, and then got a lot of guys that were hitting in the neighbored about a two forty five to two sixty Cole Keith Manverlely being chief among them. But I mean, you take a look at the overall season numbers for the likes of Zach McKinstry, Spencer Toorkolsen, along with Evan Parker Meadows, these are all guys that hit a two forty five or lawer. But post All Star Break, they raised their averages respectively by north of thirty points from the first half of the season. They've been able to pick up a little bit of steam. And Gary Carpenter, I really think is an X factor for this team post All Star Break, was getting a home run every about thirteen to fourteen at bats. His zombies percentages right around about a three fifty. But I do think that in the end for the Detroit Tigers, they're just going to be having to try to pruss too many buns in this one. I think that A J. Hinch gets figured out a little bit here, and I do think that there's a little bit of regression coming for that Tigers bullpen. So do you think that the Asters get to a here. I'm going to be one to trust it under Brown, and I'm going to be one to take that run line of the Astros. And he did set my tot at some point three as the Tigers all season long have been able little average offense. So I'm looking at the under end the run line of Houston Nights feventeen ninet eighteen on the bank board. The Baltimoreals playoffs that they can't see Royals seth and Lugo goes for the Royals. Zach Geflin hops to not be efflent awful for the Baltimore Oriol says the oils between minus one forty five to minus one fifty five favorites plus one twenty four to zero plus one thirty five. That number on the Royals seven a half is the total over and under both at minus one ten and when it comes to the Royals set them at a plus one fifty nine. I'm gonna be one to bank on the Oriols. This despite the fact that the Ools have had won the worst bullpens in the big leagues really since July first, if he looks since July first, or in the bottom five of the big leagues in terms of bullpenning, Ray, I think that Zach Goflin is going to be able to save that bullpen because with Zach Geflin, he doesn't use too many pitches to be able to get through games because he doesn't walk anyone. He only gives out about one point three walks per nine innings at the very least he has in a Baltimore Oils uniform. It's swinging him his tough. It has not been great this year seven and a half stright because per nine in innings, but he does a relatively solid job of being able to keep the ball in the yard. These ballpark dimensions I think are really going to be playing well to him overall for the season. Gave up about one point two home runs per nine in innings, but has been a much better home pitcher rather than a road pitcher. And this states back to when he's with the tam By Race as I would say that both of these ballparks are relatively pitcher friendly. When he has been at home, his ERA has dropped by more than a full point half rather than on the road. And for Seth Lugo, I do feel like the lack of swinging miss is going to be catching up with him a little bit, as I almost feel like he's a and shall we say, hybrid of a little bit more of a swinging miss guy and more of what you get out of Zach Eflin, as he's only been giving up about two walks Berni and Ennings and has actually been much better on the road rather than at home Kent City been a little bit of a hitter save in this season three thirty six Homieray compared to a two sixty two ERA on the road. On the road, he's only giving up about two point seven home runs Ernie and nec keeps things out in front of him and swinging Miss Uf has been a little bit better here in the second half of the season, but only ride around about seven point six seven point seven stakeouts Bernie and Nnings. He do have a little bit of a fear that the Royals really sold out for Game one and leave themselves a bit vulnerable for Game two, as they really had to use up their top three guys out of the bullpen, Christ with the Gay Boobaitch, Lucas Heursage, Sammy Long and for Boo Bitch and Ursig, they both had to use twenty plus pitches yesterday. All three of these guys gave you a top three to fifty bullpen during the regular season. You just look at what is going to be remaining for this team. What are you gonna be able to get on John Treiber since coming off the Andrew list has looked much better, but on al Zerapa has had well north of a forty arra. Daniel Lynch has actually been good in a long spot, but if you're utilizing him, then things that probably went wrong for you as well. And the biggest key for the Royals can they put back to ball. Since September one, they have more games than pretty much any other team in the big leagues because they're right now partaking in the postseason, but they scored the fields runs of any team in baseball. This includes like the Chicago White Sox insert your poopy team here. They just have not been able to put back to ball. Now. Good news is they get back Vinnie Pascantino and that's really where the offensive started for the cancer Rals when he was out due to injury. But salvanar Perez, Bobby Wood Junior, these guys had fifty nine home runs there in the regular season, undred plus RBI. They're gonna need a little bit of help. They picked up Joli Gariel, who I like ever since joining the Royals, he's been able to give you north of a three forty on base. But it's these guys like hunder Renfro, Miquel Garcia, Kyle Isbell hitting between about a two twenty two, two thirty, throwing their Garrett Hampson, they need to give you a little bit more. Tommy Famm has been all over the place this season as well. He does a good job. We'll be able to hit lefties. But at the same time too, he is one of those guys that he could be very streaky, and since the team picked him up, he's only giving you about a two to fifty on base. He's had two of runs about one hundred at bats in a Royals uniform, so he hasn't been able to do a ton for you. And for the Orioles, they did see a bit of an offensive fall off towards the second half of the season. Much of this was due to injury. They were dealing with Ryan Mountcastle being out, Raman Yurias along Jordan Westbrook. All three of these guys are healthy now. Atli Rushman just has not been inning ever since he all start a break. He's sitting in that neighborhod about a two hundred with not a lot of power, So that's something that they do need torectify. But Anthony santan Air forty three home runs. You've had Gunnar Anderson give you north of three sixty on base He's up north of thirty five home runs as well, and when their hottest bats is actually Cedric Mohens. Moans going into the Wildcard round was hitting about a three seventy in terms of zombies over the last three days with five home runs, So that's something that you'd like to see. Con Kewser, it's been a little bit up and down, but he's been pretty rocks oid and hessen Kuerre said he came in as a pinchitter yesterday. I feel like this guy could be a little bit of a key if they decide to give him a start in this one as well as he's been hitting north of two fifty for this unit. He's got a little bit more power than I think a lot of people realize as well. But at Oriols bullpen, even though it's a little bit off putting, the Royals bullpen has not been a lot to write home about. They've been in the bottom half of the big weeks in seth Lugo. I do think that all the contact that gives up it catches up with them a little bit here. So this is a circumstance where I'm gonna be willing to bank on F one. I'm gonna take the oils on the money line. I'm gonna avoid that run line just because this is a little bit of a sketchy spot here, though I did somebody till at some point nine, I'm gonna be taking a look at the over to go along with that Oriols money line nine nineteen ninet twenty. On the bank board, it is the Milwaukee Burs and they playoffs to the New York Mets. Sean Mine is on the bump for the Mets. One of Frankie Montas is on the bump for the Birds. The Birds who find themselves between minus one of three to minus one fifteen very slight favorites, as this is becoming a pick him. As I do this podcast with the Mets, you're gonna be find them as bad as a minus one ten, as good as a minus one. Of the three total on game is seven a half, the unders any between even money to minus one fifteen, the overs any between minus one and five two a minus one twenty, and I'm gonna be one diving on the over se I till at some point seven last week show shot Manea. He was in a spot where the Mets probably really needed that win. Little did they know that they were gonna need both of those games in the double header, but they needed a win. He gave up a grand slam the first inning Drese Hoskins, and he got banged round like a pinata for six runs and three and two thirds innings, and he's given up three plus runs and now three out of his last five starts. But overall for the second half of the season, even though it's been a little bit sketchy, he's been usually able to reduce see shall we say damage to three as he has given up three runs for fewer in all but two out of his last twelve starts for Manea, it's actually been better on the road than he has been had home three seventy five O MIRI three seventeen ERA on the road, and on the road he is only allowing about zero point seven home runs per nine innings. The swinging miss stuff has been pretty good as well. He's been able to get about nine straight cuts for nine nine three forty seventy r A fielding the pen is a little bit north of that because he has been giving up quite a few walks. He's up right around about three plus walks per nine innings. But I don't have a lot of faith here in Frankie Montas at all, like the fact that the burs or Aaron Selvalian long relief is off putting to say least. I think that you heard my interview with John Jansen and I didn't sound thrilled about this one, and I am not very thrilled being someone from the great state of Wisconsin. And that's a big agrees why I've got the Mets out of minds one twenty two. I think that the Mets clothes out here for Montas he overall for the season as a forty before year. He's been a little bit better with the Birds as a swing of miss stuff has come back when he's been with the brus eleven punchouts for nine innings in a Bruers uniform compared to seven as straightcouts for nine ings with the Reds. But he's still giving out four walks for nine ings. He's still giving up about one a half home runs per nine and this Mets team just continues to hit. Mark Vianos has done a nice job supplying the team with twenty plus home runs. Francisco Lindor it looks like he is fully backed from injury. He was able at that big home run on Monday that was able to propel them to the victory. He didn't necessarily do a lot yesterday, but you know what, all of his friends helped out, as Jady Martinez, who had been ending like a one hundred in the month of September, he comes up with a pinchit hit. You've got Jesse Winker who was able to come up with I believe a triple yesterday. So you've got one through nine really supplying on all cylinders. Oseglasias has been hitting above a three twenty five all season long, a little bit sad that I wasn't seeing lou On hell Acunya in the starting lineup. But overall, this team is very very much loaded, and it's hard to be able to find a spot for someone like that. And for the Milwaukee Berds, this has been a team that's mad move line all season long. You've got so many of these guys have supplied between about a three fifteen to a three thirty five on base all throughout the season. Willia Damas was your main masher during the regular season, being able to spply thirty two one runs, while William Caturs just had said he had a guy twenty three on runs about a three sixty five on base. But you've got the likes of Blake Perkins, Jackson Tario, Joey Ortiz sal for you like Bryce Terraang, I'll give you tween about a three to fifteen to a three thirty on base And not for nothing, Bryce Terraang fifty sole bases during the regular season, so if you get him on, he's able to get to a second base and third base. And for the Burs, with throwing Aaron Savoli in long relief, it did save a bullpen that has been number one in the National League in terms of RA. You do have a lot of your big guns who are going to be available, as I've had so many of these guys throughout the season be able to spy a sub three twenty five yar A. You know, Pieumps gave it up yesterday, but Key, Jared Kanning, Trevor McGill, Devin Williams, these have all been guys may be able to give you that sub three fifty EARRA and Aaron Ashby in long relief can be able to help out as well. And I do think that you might need some long relief with the way that Frankie Montas has been pitching. But I just a faulted the New York Mets, even though they have had a bottom fifteen bullpen in terms of ERA since July first, I do think that they've got enough to be able to get by Danny Jung is that as he's been amazing, But I've actually liked what I've seen Autriguarrett. Last week of this season, things were toilet pulling for him, but prior to that was posting up about a three twenty five YARA film atone in a Mets uniform. Has been able to give you some three uar a Edwin dis We saw how gritty he was in that game number one sixty one where Metts were able to pull that off. He was able to have that nice ninth thenning He's been up and down all season long, but I think that in a big spot, I'm able to trust in him to be able to get the job done for the New York Messa. As I think that they slid their way to victory, I set the mess at a mins one twenty two them'll and take them on the money line. Set my toe at some point seven as well, so I'm also on the over, and then we have my VSAID website right to pick. This is nine twenty one, nine twenty two on the banking board. The antline of Braves then throw the facing off against the slam Diego Padres Manx freeed is on the bump for the Braves and Joe Musgrove goes for the Potters. Openers are right now showing the Patters as a bottom minus one fifteen favorite, seeing anywhere between a botto minus one fifteen to a minus one twenty even money to plus one oh five. That number on the Bravos with a total of seven, the unders between minus one fifteen to a minus one twenty, the overs between even at minus one oh five, and I set the Potterys out of minus one forty six. My rite up is going to be on this Potterys money line. I just feel like this Atlin of Braves team is cooked. For lack of better term, they were able to do a nice job of having Aaron Bummer be able to eat quite a few nings yesterday, but this is a bullpen that is very much tax and for Max Freed, I just have not been too impressed by what I've seen out of him in the second half of the season. You look, ever since the beginning of the month of July, he's been posting up well north of a three sixty ra north of three walks per nine, and he says strikeout numbers have honestly gone up a little bit here in the back half of the season, but he still has been a little bit inconsistent there. Now, good news for Max Fried has said he's been able to do a nice shop keeping them all in the yard. He's giving up a little bit over zero point six home runs for nine nineties, so he's been very good on that front. But you've got Joe Musgrove, who since coming off the indre list, he has been quite dominant. The overall three eighty eighty RA does not speak now while he's been pitching. He ever since coming off the indre list, has a two pine five ERA while giving up zero point seven home runs at ten point two strikeouts per nine innings. This is a stretch of nine total starts he has allowed two runs for fewer in seven of them. And the Atlanta Braids, even with getting Michael Harris back, even with getting something out of Ossie Albi's who spent a lot of time on the injured list, this is just not a lineup that is up to snuff for being in the playoffs. Marcelosuna has had to carry the team all season long. He's been able to do so with thirty nine home runs, providing north of a three seventy five on Bason Medelson to his creat throw them with four to twenty five on base over the last three days. Overall for the season, twenty nine home runs. I think you have a missmash of different guys with between about fifteen to nineteen home runs this season. Travis are no Austin Riley, who you're not going to be seeing him in this series. Michael Harris, so I mentioned before Orlando Arcia. These guys are Mon Loreano in a Brave's uniform, has been able at about a three hundred bug the Padres. They're able to do a much better job of just being able to put patch to ball. We'll say this before I go any further. Max Freed is a lefty end by the San Diego Padres. They were number one the big leagues in terms of batting average against righty's right around about a two seventy two, heading closer about it two thirty nine against lefties, so that it is something to be mindful of. But lest Riots has made a bit above a three hundred against lefties. Dreks and Profar has been very rock solidating turn a three inunderd himself against lefties as well, and then pro far Jackson, Merrill, Manny Machado overall for the season well at least a two to seventy five all with at least twenty four home runs. This season, Kylo Gashioka was able to go topsterday. He's been able to give you home run every about thirteen to fourteen at pass and the big advantage that the Anlanda Brads should have is in the bullpend But if you look ever since July first, both of these bullpens have been darn near equals. The Braves three fifty four bullpenny Araa in the signs Van Pottery's three fifty five bullpenny array in this ban. And when it comes to San Diego, Pattery's unit, they're the more well rested unit because they got seven good endings out of Michael King. And I really like the way that these guys from the state of Florida. I've really been able to help out this bullpen. You did see Jason Adams strike out the side yesterday. He Tender Scott along Brian Hoying, all being able to fly the team with a sub two seventy five are atter im mortal hone all throughout the season has been nails. He's been able to give you about a two eighty five YEARI We'll say that there's been a little bit of shakiness with Roberts Forz here in the back half of the season, pussing up north of a four ERA over the last thirty five days, but on all. I really like the way that this bullpen has rounded in a form, and I just don't think that the braves are going to be able to provide too much resistance. And I do think that Joe Musgrove really finding himself. I did somebody told six point nine. I do think that Freed is not going to get like completely blown up here or anything like that. But I just don't think that the anline of braves are They're part at the plate. So I'm looking at the under of my visa website right a pick that's to be on the Potteries money line. And now to wrap things up for the ones edition of The Baseball Betting Show, now part of the VS and family of podcasts Big Things with John Jansen. It does great workover at Fox Sports Philadelphia. Gambler, you joined me in the Lion segment. If you do like hearing from this fine podcast Baseball Betting Show. You're able to subscribe wherever your podcast Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Spotify, Switcher and tune in if you have a question comment segment idea. When I have you for this podcast, you have one or two ways vl fur those in. First one is my Twitter Slashack's timeline at Genet under forty one. Keep in mind learnsm they mean does not matter, so it's pre usual. Please you send these into the timeline and the other ways. Find an Apple podcast review if you're ate this podcast five starts it is very much appreciated. From there, arable fire and whatever you'd like you on this podcast. Five the five star view coming at you guys every three single days you're on the baseball season. That means I'll be back with you once. Get him out. Thank you.