10/16/24-Baseball Betting Show

Published Oct 16, 2024, 7:00 AM

Greg recaps Guardians vs Yankees Game 2, talks to Dylan Rockford of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network about the ALCS & NLCS as a whole, different bets & strategies he uses in October, & the Mets wild run, & Greg picks & analyzes Dodgers vs Mets Game 3!

Spreadsheet link: https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/greg-petersons-daily-handicapped-mlb-lines/

Podcast Highlights

4:23-Recap of Guardians vs Yankees Game 2

7:44-Interview with Dylan Rockford

24:00-VSIN Website Pick Dodgers vs Mets

Breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host, Greg Peterson.

I remember for the low Welcome to Lovely Blas Vegas for the Baseball Betting Shoe with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the Vson Family Podcasts, and we have a nice podcast up for you today as we're going to be joined in a few minutes by Doing Rockford, who does such good work over at the Sports Gambling Podcast not Work. Along with that X Kicks Picks for those that like the fight scene, We're going to be chatting with him about both the NLCS and the ALCS. He is out there in the great state of New York, so we're going to be talking about what has been an incredible run for the Mets, taking a look at Game three with the Dodgers and the Mets coming up for Wednesday, and then in the final segment, I'll give you guys my picks and analysis for that Game three as we touch them all. If you do have a question comment segment idea of what I have you for this podcast, you have one of two ways, bil fur those in first one is my Twitter slash x timeline at you and Underscorty one keep in mind learsm namy does that matter, So, as per usual, please send these into the timeline and the other ways. Find an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast five stars, that is very much appreciated. From there, you're able fire in whatever you'd like to hear on this podcast via the five star review. Did not get in any Twitter slash X question today, but we did have a fun game two in the ALCS with the Yankees now in control. So let's take a look back at it, try to find some trends and try to get to know these seems a little bit better.

Games were yesterday. Is Greg buzzing about? Here is the rowdy recap.

This round of the postseason. Favorites are three and one and overs are three and one. I wrote up the under and two Cleveland errors costed the Unders, so that was bad. If you saw the Brian Rochio fly ball that he did not catch, I think that you can agree with me that this was relatively rough. But six to three the Yankees are able to get the job done for the Guardians. Hey, we're able to get a home run off the bat of Jose Ramirez at game of the ninth inning when it was too little, too late, a second of the postseason, and for Garrett Cole was not as sharp at four walks six It's allowed in four the third endings along two runs. But for the Cleveland Guardians they go oh of seven with men in scoring position. They leave eleven men on base. Meanwhile, for the Yankees, they won two of ten with men in scoring position and Aaron Judge then a struggle for them all postseason long. He gets a home run off of Hunter Gaddisys. The Guardians need to get all but four outs from the bullpen. Tanner Baby, he gives up three runs, to which we're earned. He was not out by the fielding whatsoever. I will say that, But quick cook there. Kate Smith actually pitched more outside of the bullpen then you had for Tanner Baby as a starter one in two thirds dings scoreless for Smith, and then you had Eli Morgan Tam Aaron both throw a squirrels setting, Eric Sabowski and underground give it up in two thirds of ning, and there was an air out there in the field and trying to get a man at home. Pedro Voala and out of the bullpen. Scal Gaddis gives up that home run, Darren Judge giving up two runs to two thirds and ning, and then Ben Lively he had to come in for one and a third ning scoreless. And for the Yankees, he did have Luke Weaver give up that home run to Ose Ramirez gave up one run in an ending, but Tommy Kinley, Timill, they piece me all together, three squirrels settings and Kleolms gets a pair of outside of the bullpen. So Yankees in control by kind of two to zero. And could we see a sell Boys series in the world series about if we talk about that and so much more with our good friend Darren Rockford of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. He does so many great podcasts over there at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, and you're will fall him on Twitter slash tacks at rock with two ks the number twenty four altogether. And Dylan, it's always pleasure my friend.

Thank you, Thank you, Greg, thank you for having me.

Always great to have you aboard. And Dylan, you've joined this podcast quite a bit in first sings. First always to appreciate it. But I know that from our chats you are a bit of a New York Mets fan, and before we dive into where we're gonna be seeing in Game three, what we've been seeing in the NLCS, just what have you made on this run from the Mets one that I mean, it feels like it was twenty years ago where or A Lopez through his glove in the Sands and said that the Mets were the worst team in baseball. Now here they are three games away from the World Series.

Yeah, I mean, that's really been the turning point for this team after that incident.

But you know, it's been amazing.

I was there for Game four of the NLDS against the Phillies when they closed him out. It just means everything. Trust me, I know, being a Met fan, we've been through some very tough years. So when Edwin Diaz struck out that guy, and trust me, he always makes it interesting, Edwin Diz. But after he struck out the last guy, the seventy year old old man came up to me and he hugged me. He starts crying like this is what it means to these people in New York.

So it's been a long ride, tough game.

I really did feel like we were in a bad spot with Flarity I thought we were going to see a bounce back spot from here him so and could I sing it. To be honest, I wouldn't mind if we never saw him start in this postseason. Again, he didn't have it, you know, one in one third inning, is in the in game one of the NLCS, and to be honest, it looks like he's a guy that's still trying to find it.

Third game basically starting this season, and he's just wild.

He can't find his fastball right now, and then these times, I really don't know if we could afford that with the bullpen usage.

So I wouldn't mind that. But Flirty pitched well.

They put a nine spot on us, but I guess it's been in to a positive. Anybody who has scored nine runs in the NLCS has gone on to win the series. So they did well the second game. Seum and I has been amazing. I mean, the Mets should just write him a blank check. In my opinion, he's been fantastic for this club. You go out, Lindor's been amazing. Mark Vientos he's been fantastic as well. So it's nice to go one to one get the momentum. Swing it back to New York's favor, and we had Game three in New York, and I liked the new format two to three and then two as well back home.

Yep. Absolutely, it means a little bit more NonStop baseball where you don't get those clunky rest days as well, and we are going to be seeing game three. In my opinion, a favorable pitching matchup for the Mets are right around to pick them. Some places have them as good as a minus one twelve, as bad as minus one oh five, but Susa Brino going for the Mets Walker Beeler for the Dodgers makes up between seven and a half and eight on the total in this one. And I want to get your thoughts here because I personally landed on the Mets, mainly because I just cannot trust Walker Buehler to save my life, a guy that people have been trying to make a lot of excuses that the defense wasn't good for him in that game against the Padres, and I don't think they're wrong that defense was not good. But at the same time, what else has not been good has been Oh, I don't know, Walker Bueler all year?

Yeah, one hundred percent.

I mean I took the Mets here as a short favorite minus one oh seven. My model made him a minus one twenty five favorite. You know, I like I said just a few minutes ago, I believe the Mets gained old the momentum heading back to Game three in New York. I think they have the clear home and field advantage. I think City Field's a much better home field advantage over Dodgers Stadium. It's gonna be a cold, windy night over here in New York. We got winds blowing in as well. I like this spot for Severino. He's kind of been a guy you want to back at home all year. He really hasn't been able to pitch at home in these playoffs. Last three starts have been on the road. But you know, I do think coming back home, the crowd will be behind him. He's gonna have a good game in my opinion. You know, he was flying through that game that his last star against the Phillies before a couple of bad pitches led to one bad inning. But outside of that, I feel like he's been good. I agree, I really don't trust Walker Buehler. He wasn't good in that first start against the Padres, so I think seven Reno. He gives the length of the Mets length every time six seven innings per start.

I can't say the same thing about Walker Bueler. He's being inconsistent.

I think their bullpen will eventually get used up, and that's when this Mets team really starts to hone in. That's when they start hitting, scoring their run. So at the short price, I do think the Mets are the right side as well. So anything under a minus one twenty five, I got to be on the amazings.

Yep, I'm right there with you. I am all aboard the New York Mets in this one. If there's a game where I have some question marks, it's game five. If they tried out their code, I singa once again, it's joined me on the show. We do have Joan Rockford who does great workouver R at the Sports Gaming podcast that work along with X Kicks Picks for those that like a little bit of MMA in their life. He's going to be right here on the Baseball Betting Show and Dylan. I'm not sure how you do view this series, but I do think that goes to Los Angeles just because of what I talked about. I think that Game five is a role of that ice, but a the two underdog in these two series, in the Guardians and the Mets entering. I think that the Mets have the better opportunity with them being able to swipe that game too.

Yeah, one hundred percent. I think getting Game two, just winning one game on the road, they did their job. And I think the biggest advantage for this Met club is there starting pitching.

So I agree. I want to see what they do here for Game five, And honestly.

David Peterson has been I know he's been great in the bullpen, but maybe you start him out, maybe put Tyler McGill in for a piggyback off of him.

But I wouldn't start code.

I saying, I do think the Mets have the best advantage here because I really don't know. We're recording this on Tuesday night. I don't know what happens with the Cleveland Guardian team, but you know, we'll see. I do think the Mets will have the clear vantage as an underdog, so yeah, just because of the pitching advantage.

Yeah, absolutely, And we are unsure of what happened in Game two. We're recording this just as a Cats started up But that said, I take a look at the Cleveland Guardians in this series and I just feel like they're facing an up the battle. We saw what happened in Game number one, and for the Cleveland Guardians, even though it has been a circumstance where all season long they've been able to do a solid job in terms of their bullpen, I just feel like this is a Cleveland Guardian team that has built a bit more for one hundred and sixty two games, and when you get into these five and seven game series, it's just not really one of It doesn't really help out their strengths and their four days, and I just feel like the Yankees are a little bit more built for this format.

Yeah, one hundred percent. You think they looked really good in Game one with Rodin as well. Now they turned to coal in Game two as well. They've struggled for a while now. Cleveland hasn't won a World Series since nineteen forty eight, so the last fifteen years must have feel like an eternity for this Yankee club. But I agree, I think Yankees they have the clear advantage. The only advantage I would give the Guardians is the bullpen. I think all year they've been really the best bullpen in the league, but the bats, the manager. I just think it all goes for the Yankees as well, So you know, hopefully, and I think Baseball wants this as well.

I think we're heading towards the Subway Series.

Oh, if we can get the Subway Series, I'm sure that those that are out there in the great state of New York and involved in Major League Baseball, they are going to be very enthused about that. And just when when you take a look at these playoffs as well, I take a look at what we're getting in terms of Mets versus Dodgers, and I would play them as a favorite over either the New York Yankees or the Cleveland Guardians. I'm not sure how you feel about that, but I just feel like all season long, the National League has been a little bit out there in front of the American League, and I think that either of these two teams would have a little bit of an edge.

Yeah, one hundred percent. I mean, I know it's cliche, but this Mets team really doesn't die. I would favor them as well. They played four games, and no I'm a Met fan, but they didn't the games weren't relatively close.

They swept them all four games.

So I would favor the Mets easily, especially against Cleveland Guardians. But yeah, against the starting pitching because outside of Garrett Cole, no disrespect, but I don't think anyone on that starting rotation really scares the Mets lineup. I think one through nine are all tough outs, especially on this Dodger team as well. So whoever comes out of the Dodgers or the Mets, I think they're gonna be clear favorites in the World Series.

Yeah, absolutely, And if Brian Rochio keeps dropping fly balls, the Cleveland Guardians might not be long for this series either. And I want to get your thoughts on this as well. I've asked this of our last few guys, and I'll post the same question for you. In terms of your playoff handicapping, does it vary a little bit from what you do in the regular season, and if so, how, because I do think that October baseball is a little bit of a different beast in general. I do think that there are certain things that I take a look at in terms of recent form, in terms of bullpen use, that maybe I wouldn't be putting so much emphasis on during the regular season, So just want to throw that out there, if you do anything a little bit different for your handicapping in October rather than the rest of the year.

I manage it just a little bit.

You know, especially teams like the West Coast who come across the country going towards it going to be a really cold day here as well, that you know, they're not used to playing in this cold weather, travel day, bulpen usage like you were saying, especially the Mets who have just been hacked this postseason as well.

So and also a little hype as well.

You know, teams who have momentum getting hot at the right moment.

So yeah, a bunch of these for hitting.

Barrel rate, hard hit rate, those are stuff I always do or October baseball as well. So yeah, I managed it just a little but it's mostly the same thing.

Yeah, I think that that is so important to be taking a look at. And what is so important on this podcast is getting on great guests like yourself doing You've joined me all throughout the year. You're doing an amazing job taking a look at baseball. But on top of that football, on top of that, everything that we're seeing in the fight scene as well, so love to get people out of them. No, it's all that for you. And how people can follow on on social media and other platforms.

Yeah, you guys can follow me on X at Rock with two k's twenty four and yeah, we got a few more weeks of baseball left. We got week eight in college football, NHL just started up. NBA Opening Night starts next week as well, so we're locked and loaded. And Greg, it's always a pleasure for having me on. I appreciate it.

Like you said, you know, the grind never stops.

Absolutely, the grind never does stop the world of sports. It never slows down. And a man that always keeps it going and a man that always finds a way to profit off of it all is Zill And every single time he joins the show, one's such great insight. So big thanks to Dy and for joining right here on the Baseball Betting Show now part of the Vson Family podcasts and co me next. It is that time the podcast they give you picks and analysis for Game three of the n I'll see us between the Dodgers and the Mets, says.

We touch them all, breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host, Greg Peterson.

Every rag, your love you Las Vegas for the Baseball Betting Show with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the Vson Family Podcast. Always great to be able to get Dylan Rockford a board. He does such good work over at the Sports Gambling Podcast I We're taking a look at this wonderful game of baseball. Does great work on the MMA slash fight scene with x kicks, picks and so much more so was nice to be able to get him on today. Big thanks to doing for joining me in my last segment. Now it is that time of the podcast they give you picks and analysis for Game three of the Dodgers and the metsays we touch them all.

If the game is listed on the betting board, Greg has a side and a total on it, so it is time to touch them all, dude.

Note that, as per usual, any changes there maybe these plays will be listed up on my Twitter slash ICs feed at genn are forty one. Only we ot one game on the benning board, so it's very easy to go into Las Vegas cirtation order. That means that the ride up will be on our long game. So let's get to at it. Nine to fifty nine, nine to sixty on the card the Mets, three playoffs of the Dodgers, as Walker Buehler is on the bump for the Dodgers and Louis seventy and oh is on the bump for the Mets, and the Mets are a very slim favorite. Most places have them between minus one o five to minus one oh eight, seeing as high as mice one fifteen in one spot between minus one o two to eight minus one oh five is that number on the Dodgers. Seven and a half to eight is the total on the eight the unders mice one twenty in the overs even on the seven and a half over his mice one twenty under his even, I set my total as seven point six. Personally, I would rather take a seven and a half over rather than an eight under, just because with the seven a half, I could see a game being like five to three something like that. Where the Mets are I will pull it off by my right up here is going to be on the Mets money line. I'd be one to lay to him mix plum fifteen. So regardless of where you're seeing this right now I am on the New York Mets just because it sort of is correlated with regards to taking that seven a half over along with taking the mess. I just have absolutely no faith here in Walker Bieler, and all but three of his starts as far this season he has given up three runs or more. And when it comes to Walker Beeeler, I recognize that the defense let him down and that start the end against the San Diego Padres last week, but he just overall all season long has not been able to get the job done. His strikeoun numbers are down. He has been giving up one point eight home runs per nine ennings and he's really had an almighty struggle when he has been on the road as well. On the road for Walker Bieler, he is posting up an area that is north of a six point eighty and he has been giving up on the road right around about two home runs per nine and ennings between the regular season and the playoffs, Baler five to seventy one area with heat ballooning up to a six eighty eight on the road to be exact. Now the Dodgers do a nice job, I'll be able to supply to play five point two runs per contest here overall for the season, that goes up to about five point five on the road, with Shoyotani hitting about six hundred with men on base here in the postseason, so it has been amazing there. I don't think that he has a hit yet with the bases empty, so that has been an interesting dynamic to take a look at. You gotta figure that things are going to iron out a little bit there. But obviously I've got Mookie Betts who was able to have a pair of home runs in the previous series as well. I know that there's been a little bit made out of some of his playoff struggles, but none made out of Freddy Freeman, as he has had no struggles whatsoever. He's not necessarily getting a bunch of home runs or anything like that, but he's moving the line ag north of three poin fifty here in the postseason. Has really become a nice singles hitter for the ELI Dodgers here thus far this season. And on top of that, you've been able to have just a lot of guys to be able to come through, like a Key k Ornandez who he seems to always do nothing during the regular season but when you need him in the playoffs. Playoff key k is there hitting above a three hundred. I had that home run with the infamous shall we say bump to his team able just call at that, but Taskar Nandez also a pair of bombs for the Lli Dodgers. But the New York Mets have been one of the best teams that being able to generate runs at all all season long, about four point eight runs per contest. Mark Vientos, who was able to have that big Gariants Slam in Game number two. He has done far more damage with his bat when he has been at home rather than when he has been on the road. For Vientos, seventeen out of his twenty seven home runs during the regular season did come at home. He was getting a home run at home every about twelve or so at bats. Pete Alonso eighteen bombs when he was in City field as well. Give you about a three fifty or Sobbies Francisco Lindora had that big Grand Slam against a Phillies at City Field. To be able to send this team to this spot now. Brandon Nimo Jeff mcdeal both inning below a two ten at City field this season. Both of these guys I have been a little bit suspect on, but you know what, Sterling Marte is a guy that's able to move the line for this team. You get a nice little bump for someone like an Ose Iglacias, who's hitting I'm not even kidding here four hundred when he has been at home as far the season and for the La Dodgers, I feel like the aris starting to come out of the balloon a little bit. For this bullpen as well. From July first until the end of the regular season, they were fifteenth in the leg in terms of their bullpenny are at a four h three. They've right, I had to throw two bullpen games here in the postseason. Getting back Brent Honeywell is big. He was able to fill some innings for the team in the previous game, so that helps up. But Anthony Bend Alex Vesia, even though during the regular season both of these guys were able to supply a sub three ten eure do feel like there's a little bit of regression there, especially now that they're without Alex Vesio because he got injured in Game five against the San Diego Padres. So man to replace him with Eduardo Enriquez, that's not a place where you want to be. Michael Kopek and a Dodgers uniform. It's been rock solid, but they still are missing Bersaro Gredor got injured as well, So now you look a little bit more to someone like Ryan Brazier. I like Danny Hudson, good solid veteran that's been able to do a rock solid job all throughout the season, and Blake trying as well. But for the New York Mets, Edwin Diaz just always seems to perform his best when he's at home as well. Philm Atone has been relatively okay a long three geartt in the bullpen as well. These guys been a little bit touching going for the Mets, about a three eighty years so ei here in the postseason. During the regular season, they were posting up a bullpen area that was hovering right around four. So they're pretty much performing up to enough, I think is the best way of putting it. Danny Young has had an appearance or two that has been pretty solid here in the postseason, and then you've got your ultimate utility guy and David Peterson, who should be good to go if you need them as well. I know it's been a bit touch and go with someone like an Oz, but I just feel like he's much better as a starter rather than coming out of the bullpen. But I do think that the Best find a way to be able to get to Walker Bealer has just had his struggles all season long, and I do think that the Bests take a two to one series lead. So my write up is going to be on the Mets money line, and in terms of this total, I'm going to be taking the seven and a half over and that'll wrap things up for the ones edition of The Baseball Betting Show, now part of VS and Family of podcasts. If you do like hearing from this time podcast Baseball Betting Show, You're able to subscribe wherever your podcast Apple Podcasts, Google by Spotify, sit you're in tune in. If you have a question, comment segment idea, what I have you for this podcast? You have one of two ways, fel far Thosten. First one is my Twitter slash x timeline at you under scoredy one keep in mind learns them they mean it does not matter, so as pre usual, please send these into the deadline. And the other ways sign an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast five starts, it is very much appreciated. From there, you're able to fire in whatever you'd like to this podcast. By that VI starve you and big thanks once again to Bill and Rockford of the sports Camplay podcast own for Jeremy and My segment coming at you guys every single day throughout baseball season, so I'll be back with you once gain them out. Thank you,

The Baseball Betting Show with Greg Peterson

From Fabulous Las Vegas, Greg Peterson breaks down every Baseball Game on the MLB slate.
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