The Baseball Betting Show with Greg PetersonGreg recaps Dodgers vs Padres Game 5, talks to Taner Kern of DraftKings about betting game to game vs the NLCS & ALCS series price, & the keys for all four teams to win their respective series, & Greg picks & analyzes Mets vs Dodgers Game 1!
Spreadsheet link: https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/greg-petersons-daily-handicapped-mlb-lines/
Podcast Highlights
4:09-Recap of Tigers vs Guardians Game 5
6:16-Interview with Tanner Kern
22:13-VSIN Website Pick Mets vs Dodgers Game 1
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Breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host, Greg Peterson.
If we'remur pro they low welcome and lovely Las Vegas for the Baseball Betting Shoe with myself, Greg Peterson, now part of the Visa Family Podcasts. We've gotten excellent podcast rays. We're going to be joined in a few minutes by Danner Kerran, who does a great job over at DraftKings couple with at the Ride the Line podcast. We're gonna be chatting with him about what we've seen in the playoffs thus far. We're going to be looking at all four teams in their routs to try to get to the World Series. Will be breaking down the Alcs and the NLCS, get a little bit of his thoughts on Game number one between the Dodgers and the Mets, and then in the final segment, gonna get you guys picks and analysis for that Game one between the Mets and the Dodgers as we touch them all. If you do have a question, comment segment idiot, what have you for this podcast? You have one of two ways bil Fur listen. First one is my Twitter slash x timeline at Giden underscoredy one. Keep in mind, larzm they mean does not matter, so as pre Usualle, please send these into the timeline. The other ways, find an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast vice stars, it is very much appreciating them from there, arable fire in whatever you'd like to hear on this podcast. High That five star review did not get in any Twitter slash x questions today. But we did see the Cleveland Guardians be able to make the Alcs in grand fashion. So let's take a look back at it, try to find some trends in, try to get to know these seems a little bit better. Games for Yesterday is Greg buzzing about? Here is the rowdy recap. For as low scoring as games two and three we were in the ALDS between the Guardians and the Tigers, three out those five games did go over. And if you look at the last seven days in Major League Baseball, so this covers the entire divisional series. He saw seven overs, seven unders in this round of the postseason, with one push thrown in there as well. With the favorites in the DS going nine and six between the National League and the American League, Guardians slight underdogs, they get it done by account of seven to three, as Tyrek Scoble, who had given up five total runs in his last seven starts, only gives up five runs and six plus sennings here as he allows that grand slam to Lane Thomas in the fifth inning for Thomas's second home run of the series, be able to get a ton. As for the Cleveland Guardians, it was all ands on deck, as the two men that threw the most settings were the men that came out first and last. Matthew Boyd two squirrel of settings, Amanu class A two squirre of settings, and in between you had Andrew Walters give up a run in a third venning. Hunter dadis a run in two thirds Venning Tim Aaron one in a third endings he lost run, but Kate Smith Eric's a brown ski piecemeal together two squirrels of settings, saw Eli Morgan give you a pair of outs out of the bullpen as well for the Guardians four of eight with men and scoring position at the plate. For the Tigers just one of twelve. That really costed them in game number four, and it costs him here in game number five and after Schooble was out and they actually cut the lead to five to three, but Tyler Holton gives up a run in one and the third innings, Will vest In his third of inning allowed to run as well before Browbrisky gets it out on the bullpen as well. So the Tigers are incredible run it comes to an end. Unfortunately, I wrote up the Tigers on the money line. I was putting my faith in Trek Scooble, I felt rightfully so, and then he gave up a grand slam at the wrong time, So shame on me. Will look to do better on Sunday. But we always do great when we get this guest aboard, as Sander curR does such a great job over at Dravekings. He's one half of the Brideline podcast as well. Whether you're looking at football, basketball, baseball, he even Samaki. He does a great job covering at all. You're able to fall him on Twitter slash cks at his first and last same Tanner Kurrn with that last name small k Are and then an underscribe for that and Danner. It's always great to get you a board. Thank you, thanks for having me Greg, always great to have you aboard. Tanner and Tanner. We are down to the final fourum baseball. Lots of wild and crazy stuff that has happened here in the postseason, but just how do you size up these four teams? Because personally, when I take a look at things, overcomes up Vienna. Whether that be the Mets or if that's THELA nots. My team feel like they have a little bit of a leg up in terms of the American League, though, was a little bit impressed by what we.
Do breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here's your host, Greg Peters.
Some who's worn DZ roads, giving the World Series and being arrested.
You know, whoever comes out of this Mets Dodger Series is going to be mentally and physically exhausted, because that's what it's going to take to win. Where the New York Yankees are the favorite of the Cleveland Guardians for a reason. They're the better team and they've had a very easy road to the postseason.
So that's how I'm breaking it down.
When we're talking about who's going to win the World Series right now, what means more that physical mental strain or a New York Yankees team that's had an easy road should come in pretty resting.
And I think that there are a lot of interesting storylines when it comes to this postseason as well, because there's one clear team that well, they've had a very interesting road here, and that be the New York Mets. Earlier in the year, we heard or Lopez pretty much rage quit the team, saying that the Mets were the worst team in the league, and now here they are in the Championship Series, and just how do you take a look at a Mets team that now is three days off. And my biggest fear with the team like the New York Mets that has been riding high on momentum, a team that has really been feeding off of one another in this great run that they've been on. Is that perhaps a few days off is actually the last thing that they need.
Yeah, it's an interesting dynamic here with the New York Mets because the.
Rest could be warranted. They may need it, but at.
The same time, too, you're coming in against the Dodgers team now with momentum. I mean, you got to give credit to the Dodgers first off, coming into this game, because how they beat the Padres in Game five was not easy. They did it with pitching, and that's not something that the Dodgers have been known for this season since all their injuries have occurred. So I think it could be a good thing for the Mets in the sense that they are arrested is a road trip to get acclimated to the West Coast.
I'm sure they've been out there a few days.
But you can also take it from the sense that they had that momentum coming off the NLDS victory. But I tend to think rest actually helps the New York Mets in this spot because they've had some time to sit back, reflect, get their pitchers in order, get their offensive order, and set themselves up for success.
In this series.
And I don't think that there's any doubt that in Game number one, the Mets are going to be looking to the bullpen because the pitching matchup for Monday right now, the pitching matchup for Sunday right now is Jack Flerity against Kodi Senga, with Senga making a certain start of the year, and we saw him earlier in the postseason go two ednings, albeit he gave up one run in two innings, but when two eddings in his last started gets the Philadelphia Phillis And it's figures why right now we're finding the Mets right around about plus one forty plus one thirty five on the money line, And how do you decipher this matchup with an LA Dodgers team that has seen Jack clarity be a little bit shaky. But for the Mets, you have to figure that it's going to be all hands on deck for their pitching.
Well, the Dodgers.
What I've learned from the Dodgers this season, like they just find ways to win. They didn't have the best pitching, but they have a great offense. They had the best record in baseball, and they found a way to win games. I think that's what we saw in the last series. So looking at this one here, I would be on the Dodgers because this is a must win game. With Jack Flaherty on the map, Whenever Flerity pitches in this series and whenever Yamamoto pitches in the series, they have to win.
There's no excuse not to win.
So looking at this one here, Flerty hasn't been great in the postseason five point one innings, a six, five, ERA one one three whip.
Obviously those numbers will come back to earth here. Flerty has what it takes.
We know that we saw it this season and the bottom line doesn't matter who is on the map of the Dodgers. They need to hit the baseball and if they do that, they're gonna be just fine here.
So must win game for the Dodgers.
I think if they don't win this game, the series could go downhill pretty quickly. With how hot the Mets have been if you give them back that momentum.
Yeah, I'm right there with you. And in terms of total of eight, how would you be looking to play this one as well? Because with the Dodgers, we all know about the death star lineup with the lakes of Cholo Tani, Bookie Bets, what have you. But with the Eli Dodgers, last time they gave up a run was the second ending of Game number three against the San Diego Padres, which is really wild to say. And for the Dodgers, the bullpen has probably been their best drink here in the postseason.
Yeah, and I think that's more of a you know, Padres issue than a Dodgers issue. The bullpen has been great, don't get me wrong about that. But I would always lean over with these two teams when you look at Mookie Betts, when you look at show Heyo Tani, Freddie Freeman's in the lineup, healthy Tiascar Hernandez was really good in the last year's Keiky Hernandez playoff ki k. I mean, he was fantastic obviously in the last game with the home run. So it's always hard to go under with the Dodgers, knowing their starting pitching and knowing what the Mets bring into this game from a pitching perspective, If New York Mets don't advance to the World Series, it's not going to because their offense. It's going to because they give up too many runs with their bullpen, and we know we saw in the last Yeriares the offense came through clutch a lot, so.
I tend to lean over here.
It's probably a market that I would stay away from in general, but if I'm picking a side, I'm going over.
And I'm so glad that you mentioned that with the clutch hitting of the Mets, as well as showing me on the show, we do have Tanner Kerran, who does a tremendous job over at DraftKings along with the Ride Lin podcast, showing me on the Baseball Betting Show, and what I found with the Mets this goes back to their Game three win against the Milwaukee.
Bergs as well.
Pretty much all of their runs have come in the sixth ending year later. As a matter of fact, over their last five games, twenty three out of their twenty seven runs have come in the sixth ending year later. Is there any concern there with the Mets because they've been coming through clutch time and time again. But I think that when you continue to rely upon those late game runs at some point that might dry up a little bit.
You can't do that against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I really did not think the Dodgers were going to go into Game five beat the Padres. I didn't think they had what it took from a pitching perspective. I thought the offense wasn't great. Show Heyo Toanni was not great except with runners in scoring position. You good, Freddie Freeman banged up, but they just found ways to win. So the Mets probably aren't going to get away with that as much against the Dodgers, like this is still don't get over twisted. You know, the Mets have played really good baseball, but this is a David versus Calive matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers here, So if you are looking at their late run trends, I would say maybe late overs, late live bets on the New York Mets here. Just from a win loss standpoint, you can't afford to get away with that too much longer, especially.
As you get to the Dodgers.
And if you did get through the series, most likely it would be the game and that's another team you probably can't get away with winning laid against.
And I think that it is so interesting that both series, the NLCS and the ALCS pretty much the same price across the board. With the Dodgers and the Yankees. They're both about minus one seventy five to minus twenty eighty five be able to win their respective series. If you like the Guardians or the Mets to be able to win those series, right around plus one fifty five plus one sixty. Are you finding any value with regards to the overall series price or are you gonna be a little bit more like myself and going to be playing this much more on a game to game basis.
It's really a game to game basis. I think the next time I would, you know, look at more of a serious price would probably be the World Series if we did get that Yankees Dodgers matchup, because you're probably going to get the Dodgers for minus one forty minus one fifty, I would say in that range. And then obviously if one team goes up one if the Yankees were to go up one nothing, it would flip to the Dodgers will flip to a short favor. But right now, looking at these series, it's too much of a miss price for me to bet. If the New York Mets win up one nothing in the series, I don't think the Dodgers have a great shot just because they're not winning with Flirty, it's gonna be tough to win with their other pitchers. But at the same time, too, if they do go down and they play okay in Game one, that could be worth taking a chance on.
Same thing with the Yankees.
If they go down to the Guardians and you're getting them for a short favorite, potentially it could be worth taking.
Yep, I'm right there with you.
I'm going to be playing this much more game the game myself, so we shall see what happens there. And in terms of that Yankees Versus Guardian series, how do you foresee this one playing out? As we currently don't have starting pitchers set for game number one that is going to be happening on Monday, But you have to think that Carlos Verdon is probably going to be getting that start. And for the Cleveland Guardians, I would be thinking that they'll probably go with their Game three starter in this one as well, So you should be seeing a little bit of a hodgepodge are most likely with Alex Cobb getting a little bit of start, But that's a little bit TVD as well. But I look at the Guardians and that strength of the bullpen, I think is going to be big, and I feel like this is a little bit correlated to lower scoring games. Voting very well for the Cleveland Guardians, and if you see a high scoring slug fest, that certainly plays in the hands of the New York Yankees.
Yeah, Cleveland needs to keep the runs down early in this game, in all these games, and the New Yor Yankees have a lot of power the top their lineup, and the Yankee came through when they needed to, but they were by no means dominating their last series, and I know the ended four games, so it's definitely sounds a little contradicting there, but there were moments where good teams really could have taken advantage of the New York Yankees. So looking at this series here, if you get to the bullpen for the Guardians with a one, two run lead and he got class today closing games, it's.
Gonna be tough for the Yankees here.
But I do trust their bats early and now they're the better team, and the better team tends to win in these series. I would definitely lean towards the New York Yankees as a whole, but I totally agree with what we were saying there Greg.
Yeah, and I do want to ask you about this as well. In terms of the New York Yankees, you have to downgrade them a little bit, just with the way that Aaron Judge has struggled on October. Because we've seen the time and time again and perhaps said late Double that he got towards back half of the series against he can't see where else is able to get them going. But it feels like just like Superman at Kryptonite as his main weakness, it just feels like time and time again. But the calendar reads October. That's when Aaron Judge has his biggest weaknesses come out. And it's just been very strange to watch him operating in the out of October, because he is spectacular all throughout the regular season, but when the team is zeded at most, he just has been a bit of a no show.
And you know, Stan Haven some big hits in the last game two. You have Hwan Soda, you have guys that can make plays for you. So Aaron Judge doesn't need to be the one fully dictating the offense, but he needs to come through and be better than he has been. For sure, I would downgrade them a little bit the Cleveland Guardians can win the series, There's.
No doubt about it.
I wouldn't pick them to win the series, but they have the talent to do it, especially if the Yankees give them opportunities by not scoring early and not putting them away early. Like Cleveland's the epitome of a team that if you don't put them away, you're gonna have a lot of trouble because of how good their.
Bullpen is and how good they just put the ball and play. In general.
They might not have the power, they might not have the big swing, but they're going to put the ball in play and make defenses make place, and that's not a recipe for success for a New York Games team if they don't put them away early.
And I think that you're in the same boat as me. It feels like we're both very clearly not going to be playing the series right now. But if I had to pick one of the underdogs to be able to win the series, and I had about one of those plus prices, I would take the Guardians about a plus one fifty five to oh plus one sixty over the New York Mets. At this point, I don't know if you're sort of in the same boat, but I do think that the Guardian's up a little bit of a better chance of getting to the World Series are of the two underdogs.
I totally agree with that.
The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball all season, even though they don't have the pitching right now, they're expected to win the World Series, and you know, anything but a World Series title is a disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
They're and same thing with the Yankees, but.
I would definitely go with the Cleveland Guardians as the underdog when you're looking at the Art Mets, and I know, being a Red Sox fan, this may be a little bit hit home as a reference, but like I look at this Red Sox team, I look at this Mets team like the Red Sox a few years ago when they were a couple of wins away from the World Series against the Houston Astros. They got hot at the right time. They were playing well, but when they ran into the big dog in the Houston Astras, they weren't able to finish. I think New York Mets are going to have success in the series. I think they're going to steal one in La, but I do ultimately think it's going to go towards the Dodgers because they're the better team where New York Yankees. I can't say that right now with Aaron Judge, you know, not hitting the baseball, I can't say that if.
They don't put teams away. So while they should win.
It and would definitely be the underdog, I would pick out of these two.
Yep, I'm right there with you, and I think that we are in for an amazing championship series both on the American League and nationally excited things. And Tanner, we always in for amazing chat with you whenever you join, as you do such an amazing job, they gonna look at a little bit of everything, whether that be football, baseball, basketball, We name it, you do it so love to get people at home. No, it's all on to have for you. And how people can follow on social media and other platforms.
Yeah, a lot of exciting content right now for baseball and football and basketball and hockey. So I can find all my content at Tanner Kern on TikTok's for the main place I post on my personal and then also Twitter at Tannerkern Underscore and then every day pretty much on the DraftKings, sportsbook, social channels, trends, tips, analysis, all that good stuff. And then Mondays and Thursdays I do my Ride the Line podcast, mainly talking NFL there, but we'll also talk a little playoff baseball.
Absolutely and Tanner always does a great job whenever he joins his show, lending such great insights and did so once again today. So big thanks to Danner for joining me on the Baseball Betting Show now part of the Beats of Family podcasts and coming in next This that time the podcast they give you picks an analysis for Game one of the NLCS between the Mets and the Dodgers as we touch.
Them all, breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball. This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host, Greg Peterson.
Every ranker love you Las Vegas for the Baseball Betting Shoe with myself Greg Peterson now part of the Visa Family podcast. Always great to be able to get Danner Kernabord, who does such great workover our DraftKings along with the Ride the Lion podcast every single time he joins me on such great insights and did so once again today. So big thanks to Tanner for joining me in the last segment. Now it is that time the podcast they give you picks an analysis for game one of the NLCS between the Dodgers and the Mets, as we touch them all. If a game is listed on the betting board, Greg has a side and a total on it, so it is time to touch them all. Do you know that, as per usual, any changes are made to these plays will be listened up on my Twitter slash cks feed at you and n unders forty one. It is very easy to go in Las Vegas station art or when there's one game. If I screw this up, I don't know what the heck I'm doing. But that said, this is going to be a very interesting series. It's gonna be a fun one. And we do have our write up here nine to fifty one, nine fifty two on the card the Mets on the road against the La Dodgers gap to Jack claerd he's on the bump for the Dodgers and code Ice Singa is on the bump for the Mets. The Mets are an underdog of between plus one thirty seven to plus one forty two, between minus one fifty to minus one fifty five is that number on the Dodgers, and eight is a total the overs between minus one ten to a minus one fifteen, the unders between minus one oh five two a minus one ten. I'm all to go up to a mius one fifty seven on the Dodgers. I have a little bit of an edge on the money line and the run line. Right now, the run line price year we get about a plus one thirty five plus one forty there. Personally, when it comes to postseason, I'm a little bit more willing to lay the juice on the money line. Even though the Dodgers are a really good run line team, the playoffs are a little bit of a different animal. And whenever I spot like the La Dodgers and how that good they are on the run line, and it's a regular season and regular season only, I don't want to be taking too many chances on a team winning by multiple runs in the postseason, especially when you think that this might be a little bit of a lower scoring game. I write up is going to be on the under. I semi total and at some point seven I recognized that Jack clairt he doesn't come in in the World's Greatest for me, has given out three plus runs at each out of his last four starts.
But I think that this is going to be a little bit of a.
Turnaround start from he during the regular season was very much a lights ole pitcher, being able to get a north of nine to als, strikeouts only about two point one walks per nine in innings. He did give up the deep balt a little bit more than what you'd like, about one point three on runs per nine, and nnings in between the time with Los Angeles and his time with the Detroit Tigers was actually a little bit better on the road than he was at home. But I do think that he's going to be able to go out there and shut down a New York Mets team that in the second half of the season, they were really that best road team in terms of scoring. In the first half of the season, we saw that production wing a little bit, and I just have the fear that the New York Mets are going to be banking on trying to get those runs in the sixth inning or later, much like they have the last five games. If he date it back to Game three of these series against the Milwaukee Brewers, all but four of their runs in the last five games have come in the sixth ending year later. That would be a grand total of twenty seven total runs, twenty three of coming to the sixth ending or later. And this Ali Dodgers' bullpen has been lights out here in the postseason at two twenty two ARRA. During the regular season, it was more like a three fifty three, but that was still good for fourth in the big leagues. And the Dodgers really do have a solid bullpen. You take a look at these guys. I've been able to fire an ounce owners Michael Kopek and at Dodgers uniform and a Dodgers uniform only sub to era Alex Vessi he might be dealing with a little bit of an injury. He saw him get a bit banged up in Game number five, but he's been pretty rock solid. Elvan Phillips has been a little bit of a roll the ice, but like the way that he's pitched in the postseason. Daniel Hudson Blake trying in these guys, and I've been able to be tried and true, and I do think that Jack Clarty able to find it a little bit more here and Kodai Singa, he's going to be able to offer the element of surprise because a lot of people have not seen him too much. That's going at what it is. He's throwing seven to third innings as far the season, between the regular season and the postseason, and this looks like a very clear piggyback spot. In his first start against the Philadelphia Phillis here in the postseason, when two innings, gave up one run. From there, you had David Peterson throw three score at Sendings said, David Peterson is sort of that ultimate jack knife guy that you've got in the bullpen, and that he has spent time as a long reliever, he has spent time as a starter throughout his career, so he's able to do a little bit of everything and has been quite effective here in the postseason. If you take a look at Peterson, Tyler McGill might see some innings in this one along with CODEI Singa. They've pitched up combined nine and two thirds ennings and they've given up two runs. Now, the entirety of the Mets bullpen very much performing in the postseason the way that they have during the regular season. Regular seasons. Seventeenth in the Big leagues with a four or three year a four to one era here in the postseason, so very much in line there. It's hard to trust the guys like Adam Monavino, Ryan Stanik, but I do think that sort of that three headed monster of Singa, Peterson and Tyler McGill are going to be able to fill a lot of the innings and be able to keep the Dodgers at Bay early on. Even though this has been a Dodgers lineup that, as we know, has ben rock solid. You've had Mookie Bets already had two postseason all runs. I know that there's been a little bit of a knock on him on not necessarily being the world screw ate his postseason in or well, so far, so good out of him. Dask Arnandez was able to have a pair of nice home runs in that series against the San Diego Padres, and really ever since he won the home run dirty the title, he has been very good for this team.
So he's been rocks out, as we know.
Choyotani, even though he had a little bit of rough series against the Padres, if you could find the regular season in the postseason, he's had fifty five plus home runs. At fifty five plus so on basis, he's going to be just fine. Now. Freddy Freeman, he have a little bit of a back issue, but was able to get a hit in Game number five against the Patres when he came back. So do you think that he's going to be able to be rock solid? And for the New York Mets, you've had Mark Vientos really do a nice job, but be able to move a line. He's got quite a few postseason home runs thus far and has been really one of those setting forces for the team, geting above a four hundred. I just don't know how long he's going to be able to keep that up. Ose Iglesias with well above a three hundred during the regular season in just a two oh seven year. In the postseason, that's an issue, and the team has really been looking to Francisco Lindor for those bigates. He had the Grand Slam against the Philadelphia Phillies and for the Mets, he did have a few spondered opportunities early in that Game four against Affilies in that closeout game before Linder was able to hit that big giant home run to you have to wonder where you're gonna be able to get on some of the guys at the bottom of the line up, Tyron Taylor, Francisco Alvarett, Starling Marte here in the postseason, all letting at two hundred lower. Though Pete Alonso, he's come up with some big home runs himself, looked no further than that Game three against the Milwaukee Brewers. He's already got three bombs here in the postseason. But I do think that you're going to be able to see a good pitching performance with it being a piece meal performance by the Mets. And I do think that Jack Clarity, though he said it struggles, He's getting a little bit more extra rests. He's going to be going on a nice in my opinion, just sort of in between, because when you're a pitcher, you don't want to be thrown too much off your game. But at the same time, getting an extra day or two because his last start came last Sunday, so he's gonna be on six days of rest. I think that that's actually textbook perfect for him. I do think that we see the best of Jack Clarity to be able to get the La Dodgers to the window A dollar's seeing that last gave up a run in the second ending of game number two against the San Diego Patres, just wild to say twenty five total innings, twenty four innings in which the pod we're up to bat so by ride a pick is on the under and for the Dodgers, I'm gonna be willing to lay up to a minus one fifty five on their money line. And that'll wrap things up for the Sunday edition of The Baseball Betting Show, now part of the Vson Family and Podcasts. Big thanks to Tanner current of the Ride the Line podcast and DraftKings for joining me in line segment. If you do like fearing from this time podcast Basebabbeting Show, You're able to subscribe wherever your podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Spotify, cit Trenton and if you have a question comment segment, I'll be able to have you for this podcast. You have one of two ways we have fur those in. First one is my Twitter slash x timeline ign under forty one keep in mind letter ZM. They mean does on matter, so as pre usual, please to send these into the timeline. The other way is y an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast five starts and it is very much appreciated from there. You're able fire in whatever you'd like. You're on this podcast. Ye that five star review, and I'm coming. I g guys every single day, regular season and out season on this podcast, so I will be back with you once again tomorrow. Thank you,
