Week 16 vs. Raiders

Published Dec 20, 2022, 7:30 PM
Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson break down the Steelers Christmas Eve opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders.

We got some work to do. This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Offerman and Matt Williamson. Two teams coming off of a win in their most recent matchup, two teams that are both six and eight meet at actresstra Stadium on Christmas Eve nights, the Steelers and the Raiders. The Steelers are two and four at home, while Las Vegas boasted two and six record on the road. The Raiders have one four of their last five games, though, and they're only lost during that stretch was a one point lost to the Rams on Thursday Night Football, Matt, since we're playing the Raiders, we get a chance here at the beginning to sneak in this at the at the very front end of the podcast, did you ever see something more embarrassing on a football field than how that game ended between the Patriots and the Raiders last week? And have you ever could you have ever in your right mind imagined that team with that coach doing something like that? I was flabbergasted, And no, I have not seen an ending more embarrassing. I mean, there's so many layers to it, and that even when you call that play, the defense scores more often than the offense. What's at Jones supposed to do with the ball deep in his own end with no blockers, he can't throw it again, He's the slowest guy on the field. Um, I could not excuse, but I could understand maybe Romandre Stevenson pitching it to Myers thinking hook and ladder situation, you know. But then the next one is insane. There's no way Belichick called this. I mean, I know the players all said we did it on our own. I thought they might have fallen on the sword, but it was unbelievable. And then Chandler Jones just stuffed you know, Jones into the ground and mac Jones into the ground. He was a nominee for Kyle Brandt's Angry Runs Today because of how much he faced planted mac Jones into the ground on his way to the end zone. But yeah, it had to be on the players and Matt. The theory I'm going with Jacoby Myers forgot the score. He thought that they were dead. I think that game like, there's no other reason why you would do that. But let's refocus on the Steelers and the Raiders. It's one of the biggest rivalries featuring teams that aren't in the same division. Uh This storied history and incredible rivalry in the nineteen seventies began in nineteen seventy, and during that decade, the Steelers and Raiders met an unbelievable eleven times, including five playoff battles, three of which were AFC Championship games. In the seventies, the Raiders won six of those eleven. Overall, the Oakland Los Angeles Las Vegas Raiders lead this series seventeen to thirteen, but these teams have split three to three in the postseason. Most recently, the Raiders beat the Steelers at Hines Field last year twenty six to seventeen. The Raiders are on a two game winning streak and they've won six of the last eight meetings. Steelers haven't beaten the Raiders since two thousand fifteen. So in the seventies, the Raiders gave that dynasty some problems, and in the modern day, the Raiders give the Steelers some problems. Matt, Yeah, we've seen some strange ones there. Remember the Bend Next Raid game and they Yeah, I mean, I'm older than you. I was born in nineteen seventy three and my family obviously, you're massive Steeler fans, and if you're born in nineteen seventy three in Pittsburgh, of course you you know, love the Steelers and all that, and that's probably why I do what I do for a living. But I was taught at a very very young age, probably four five whatever. It's not the Browns, the Bengals, the Oilers at that time that you hate most. It's the Raiders, Yeah, no question about it. It's it's really fascinating how two teams from outside of the division have such a great rivalry like this and something you can play on the nostalgia card with. For this Christmas Eve matchup, let's look at the Raiders offense to kick things off. It comes in at twelveth overall expected points added, eleventh, per dropback twelfth, and rushing uh. To compare that, Pittsburgh's defense is twenty three and overall expected points out of this year verse the past against the run, and the Raiders do a good job of protecting Derek Carmatt only one point nine sacks allowed per game. The Steelers didn't get a lot of opportunities to sack Donald last week, but when they did, I think they made the most of it, especially t J. Watt. It's gonna be a tough task this week to get a car on the ground. Yeah, I mean, he's a veteran quarterback, gets the ball out quickly smart. I don't think their line is particularly great. Coulton Miller left tackle is a good player. But they're piecing it together at the other four spots. You know, you'll see um, you'll see you know, extra fullbacks on the field, double tight end sets, especially now that Waller's back to help with protection. You know, they of course really featured Jacobs and Adams as the two guys that they want to get the ball. But now Renfro Waller's back, it might be not the best time to play this offense. It's pretty good unit. You know. We'll get to those two in a little bit. This team is getting a shot in the arm. Or they got a shot in the arm last week, and we're limited those guys when they came back last week. But now they have another full week of practice under their belt. We'll see if they get involved more. The Raiders have thrown just eleven interceptions this year. Only the Eagles and Giants have turned the ball over less than Las Vegas. The pieces are all here, Matt for this to be a really good offense. I mean it's it's better than average as far as the stats bear out. But I think maybe the injuries just made them a little thin and that's why they struggled somewhat this year. But I mean there's still tent and points per game. It's an offense that you have to worry about. Oh, absolutely. And Josh McDaniels is an excellent offensive mind. I think him and car are starting to kind of hit their stride. You know, they started the season pretty slow. I think they lost four their first five, but they were still putting up point I mean, Jacob is having a remarkable year and Adams is as good as ever. So they design things well. They you know, Car again is a tenth the twelfth best quarterback in the league something like that. I mean, it's a good group and they have some explosive players. Yeah, as far as expected points out at our concern for quarterbacks, car ranks eleventh in the NFL for for some perspective, that's tied with Jacoboper said, just behind Trevor Lawrence and Gino Smith and ahead of Lamar Jackson by one spot. And that stat right there kind of bears out where I think he is, just from the eye test, as far as the quarterback hierarchy is concerned, right outside that top ten. Yeah, I think that's safe to say. I mean, I remember doing, you know, in the office, easy to do a bunch of ranks and things like that, and I remember thinking him and Kyler Murray were my eleven and twelve, you know, they were not quite top ten guys. Actually they were my twelve and thirteen. You know. I thought there was eleven guys I knew were better than them, and then I put those two in like this next bracket, and then you get to the Kirk Cousins of the world, and I think people kind of lump him with Cousins, and I think that's a little unfair to car. I think he's a little better than that. Yeah, I tend to agree with you there. Hey, he's got a hell of a wide receiver to play with. Now, Davante Adams, they were teams back in Fresidano State. Now they're reunited again in Vegas. One thousand, two hundred seventy five receiving yards on the year for Adams. That's six hundred and forty seven more than the raiders second leading receiver, Mac Hollands. Outside of Adams and Hollands, no other receiver for Las Vegas is more than three d and sixty three receiving yards and matt as far as yards per out run is concerned, Davante Adams averages two point five to which, for people that might not be familiar with that stat yeah, that's jaw dropping. Yeah. Over, if you get to two your Pro Bowl, you're really really good. You know, like right, the Steelers guys are in the low ones. I think they're like one too or so I freaking exactly where they're at. But you know, if you're at two, you're really playing well. Two and two point five is massive. I mean every time he goes out on a route, whether they throw him the ball or not, he produces two and a half yards. I mean just think about that. Yeah, and uh, Deonte, like you were mentioning one point four one yards per out one point three two yards per out for George Pickens, so a full yard more per route run. Then both of the Steelers wide receivers for Davante Adams and he Josh Jacobs, who leads the NFL and rushing with one thousand, four and ninety five yards, which you really have to worry about with him with those two big weapons. I think Matt is the big play. Raiders score a lot of their touchdowns from outside the red zone. They are a quick strike, home run hitting kind of offense, and we've seen the Steelers in the past struggle with offenses like that that can get you on the home run balls. Yeah, I mean the Steelers stats versus true number one receivers, and I'm saying, like guys on the schedule that are a Marii Cooper or better, you know, have really given these corners a hard time and it put up big, big numbers. Not so much lately, but they've also played three teams in a row that all they do is run the ball, you know, so you know, and even like the Saints have a lobby, but he didn't light them up. So maybe it's getting better. But I bet all the fantasy pundits project Adams to have very big numbers in this game. Yeah, I might end up picking Atoms on my fantasy team this week. Tuna and I there on that one. But we did mention the shot in the arm that the offense is gonna get It's not just going to be those two. And Derek cart Work and hen To Rentfro and Darren Waller both returned to action last week, but between the two they only played sixty seven snaps, which is about a partition participation rate. That number is only going to go up as they continue to get healthier and continue to work their way back. And Rentfros are really nice compliment, I think to Hollands and Adams. But Darren Waller's someone that if he can return to form, is fringing on it lead tight end status in my mind. Absolutely. Yeah. I thought Renfro would have a massive year in that Patriot offense. Everyone knows the Welker Edelman types and that's exactly what he is. It never really clicked for him, but it might be about to. And you're right, Waller, you know a game back. I mean he is long, athletic, um down the field guy, mismatched galore. If those three are right with Jacobs as a run game, which if we don't know if they are or not, that's problematic, no question. Last week Josh Jacobs had twenty two of the raiders twenty three Russian attempts. He has an NFL leading one thousand, four d and ninety five rushing yards. Car is their second leading rusher with just eighty eight rushing yards. So it is a feature back in the traditional sense of the word. With Josh Jacobs, he eats up all the carries. Yeah, and a massive fashion. I mean he's leading the league. As you mentioned, I mean they they drafted Zamir White and they didn't pick up Jacob's option. Uh. You know, you would think that they weren't planning on dueing this just by their offseason moves. But he's been too good, you know. I mean, he's making himself a ton of money obviously. Um. So, the other thing I want to mention about Jacobs is before this season, he had only had like two or three passes thrown to him on third downs. I mean, he has catches on his resume, but they're all first and ten screens. They're using them now as a complete back like Alabama did. And he's a handful man. He's one of the hardest guys in the league to get on the ground. Yeah, he kind of has the full arsenal right, He's got the power, he's got the speech. He can really dish it out in many ways and with the Raiders. We talked about this with the Ravens two weeks ago in the Panthers last week. Teams that know that they can run the ball well and then help that running game out with their scheme. Raiders are another one of those teams by employing a true fullback with some decent regularity. Jacob Johnson used on fifteen snaps last week. For the year, he's been used on two one snaps, which is super high for a fullback in today's NFL. But they like someone clear in the road and that Mr plow for Josh Jacobs absolutely. I mean he's an old school Kim Lester cried er, you know, lead back, hammer head, smash you fullback, toughest could be, and that worries me a little bit. I mean, Steelers linebackers ability to take those kind of blocks on in the hole isn't exactly their specialty. Before we flip it over to the defense. One kryptonite that I noted from your stat pack that you sent me, Matt, the red zone offense is just abysmal for the Vengas Raiders in the NFL. They're also over their last three games. In The Steelers defense ain't that bad in the red zone themselves. They're doing a pretty decent job of holding teams the field goals set a touchdown. So that's well, that's one area I circled and said, Okay, there's an advantage for the Steelers, no doubt, and I'm not gonna blame the car for all of it. But he's had some struggles. They're close as well. I mean, I don't have a great answer why they're not doing so well in the red zone, but he struggled more than usual down there defensively. This is the Raiders weakest part of the roster. Twenty six overall and expected points added their twenty nine against the path excuse me, pass fourth against the runs. So there's a silver lining for the Raiders fans out there. They can stop. That's shocked that they're decent in the run like that. Yeah, that's that surprised me. Do you think that's well, let me maybe explain a little bit. As the season wore on and everybody played them and said, wow, they stink against the past, maybe they just stopped running against them. Yeah. I'm not sure that that's how E p A is calculated though, because I think it's you know how often. I mean per play type of thing, not just you know, a cumulative stats um. That doesn't quite add up to me. Their run defense, but we'll see, we'll see it's an outlier. And the Patriots ran all over them and exactly and barely passed the ball well with Mac Jones, but that's their outlier. There twenty four in points per game allowed with one and they only have eleven takeaways on the season. Only the Saints have finger takeaways. They do not turn you over at all, no brutal, there's there's not a lot of playmakers period on the defense. Max Crosby is a total superstar. It's all us at the what level. Chandler Jones made a big play, but he's up in age and has been a little disappointing. And then I'm sure there's a lot of listeners that are probably like, who else do they have, you know, like that they don't have a lot of brand name guys or playmakers. No, absolutely, And Max Crosby is responsible for eleven and a half of the raiders twenty five sacks this year, and Chandler Jones, the other guy you mentioned next in line with four and a half of those twenty five sacks, but no one else on the team has recorded two sacks this year, and Las Vegas record failed to record a sack against the Patriots last week. Again, like you mentioned, the Patriots round all over them didn't have many opportunities to sack the quarterback. But even if they passed the ball thirty times, it's not a guarantee that they get him on the ground more than once with the way this pass rush goes, And it's especially not a guarantee if your name is not Max Crosby or Chandler Jones exactly exactly. I mean, they're not getting it from other than those two. Crosby gets doubled all the time in a what like fashion. There's only three teams with fewer sacks. I mean, so yeah, there aren't. There isn't much interior press, It's probably the best way to put it. Those guys are more run pluggers, which I guess kind of adds up a little bit. What's your best guests on what transpired against the Patriots last week? With them holding Mac Jones is just a hundred and twelve passing yards a team that's awful against the pass, and Jones through at thirty one times. They got ran on for two hundred and six yards at six point four yards per carry against Romandre Stevenson himself average nine point one yards on his nineteen carries in that game. And it's completely topsy turvy than what you would expect based on their stats and their play from the recent fifteen weeks of the year. Yeah, and maybe that's an outlier of Belichick McDaniel's familiarity type of thing. Um. The inability to throw I think is a Patriot thing. I mean, I mean, I know we're not here to talk about the Patriots, but they're a coordinator situation where what they've done to mac jones head is a nightmare massive there, oh man. Yeah, and we saw it in that game in a big way. But Stevenson is a total star. I mean, he's a more explosive, big play guy than what the Steelers have carrying the ball. Um. But no, it is an outlier. You're right. Is there anybody else on that defense other than Crosby and chandeler Jones that kind of sticks out to you? Maybe like a Denzel Perriman. I know he's doing a good job leading the team and tackling a divine Dieah Blow. I think that's hypnouncing. He's on the ion, but he's not probably gonna play in this game. Rocky sends a name that people maybe remember from old draft days, but no one really pans out other than those two. Yeah, I mean again, I can manufacture some names. The one guy I do like that I think has a very bright future is Trayvon mow Ring, the safety. He was a very early second round pick a year ago, and I think he has a chance to be a really good up and coming player. People should get to know him. Nate Hobbs is an okay corner, more of a slot type, smaller guy you mentioned Perryman. He's bounced around the league a lot, but he's kind of an old school between the tackles thumper that makes a lot of plays versa the raw and I guess the more we talked through this that interior triangle is Billings and nose tackle types and Perriman. But he doesn't run real well. I mean you could throw on him. Similarly to the offense. The kryptonite for the Raiders defense is also in the red zone, where they ran over the last three games. It is the dead last red zone defense in the NFL and buy a wide margin. So this is great for the Steers. In my mind, something that the offense has struggled consistently in this year is red zone scoring, converting those drives to touchdowns. Now you get maybe the worst team at defending that. Yeah, and again the Steers with three for three in the red zone last week. I mean, they'll probably have a different quarterback. I would imagine it's going to be Kenny and he uh today, so we should be good they okay, good, Yeah, I didn't hear that exactly, but that's great. Um. I would imagine he's a jump right in as a starter as he should. But as he should, yeah, no question. But this should definitely be a favorable matchup for getting over those red zone hang ups. Well, a couple of matchups that might not be so favorable to your Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders wide receiver Davantae Adams versus whoever decides to line up for him in the Steelers secondary. Uh, pick your poison, really, and good luck to whoever draws him on any particular down, because that's just the unicorn out there, and what can you really do to stop one of the best receivers in football. It's it's tough, it's very tough. He's an exceptional, exceptional route runner, like teaching tape route running. He can get the Peak and Nicol and Dime you. He has great ball skills. I mean, he's very accomplished. I'm not sure if he's number one, but he's certainly fighting for that honor. And I think it's very clear Matt no drop off from the divorce of Aaron Rodgers. He's still extremely elite in Vegas. No, he's not in Aaron Rodgers creation by any means. And finally, our key matchups Steelers left tackled Dan Moore versus Raiders defensive end Max Crosby, who you just said a few minutes ago absolute superstar is eleven and a half of the Raiders sacks Dan Moore. Hopefully it won't just be Dan Moore in that matchup a lot on Sunday or Saturday night. Excuse me, I assume. I mean, I give more a lot of credit though, I mean he handled Brian Burns. That was a key matchup a week ago. It was another and we didn't hear much out of Burns, So I mean, of course they helped here and there, and they didn't have to throw a time. But Crosby is a handful, then they'll move them around. It won't just be more. Sometimes he'll get chokes as well. But whoever it is, again, it's almost a T. J. Watt like level of how much attention you should, you know, throw his way. The Steelers and the Raiders renew their hostilities on Christmas Eve night, kick off at eight fifteen at akershur Stadium. Thanks has always forgiving us to listen for Matt Williams and I'm Tom Oprom and have a happy holidays everybody, and we'll be back again next week with a new edition of the Advanced Scout.

The Advanced Scout

Each week, former NFL scout and current co-host of SNR Drive Matt Williamson takes a look ahead at t 
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