Week 5 @ Bills

Published Oct 4, 2022, 11:15 PM
Matt Williamson and Tom Opferman take a look ahead at the Steelers upcoming opponent, The Buffalo Bills

We got some work to do. This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Upferman and Matt Williams. It the Steelers trying to snap their three game losing streak by paying a visit to the Buffalo Bills, who are three and one and coming off a gritty win against the Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore last week. Let's just not sugarcoat of Matt. This might be the best team in the NFL that the Steelers are going up to face, no question, I mean they might be. I really think the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles are on their own here right now. They're the elite teams. You know, as people know that listen to the show, which is a blast. You know. We we go through a lot of numbers. We try to look at a lot of angles. Cut to the chase. Bills are pretty good at everything. Yeah, and we know where the Steelers are at. Bills will be near the top and most statistical categories at the Steelers are a fourteen point underdog in this game. I saw a stat on Twitter that this is the first time since the NFL a f L merger in nineteen seventy that the Steelers have been an underdog by fourteen points. I think that most they ever been. Yeah, it's actually really an unbelievable accomplishment that you wouldn't have a really terrible year or a really terrible week that you're just loaded with injuries going into a powerhouse. So that's a lot of games, and that's the thing. You know, people will use that and maybe prop it up as a Wow, I can't believe your fourteen point underdog, But what you just said there is hitting the nail right on the head. To go fifty two years without being a four fourteen point underdog, it's pretty insane. Quick series history for you between the Bills and the Steelers. The Steelers lead this all time series seventeen to eleven, and our two and one when it counts the most in the postseason. Pittsburgh won the most recent meeting we all remember, twenty three to sixteen in Week one last year in Buffalo. Pretty important member of the Steelers defense is playing in that game and had a pretty big impact that won't be present this Sunday, But prior to that, the Bills won the previous two meetings in twenty nineteen, four straight season, these two teams have squared off. Before the most recent meetings, Pittzberg goes on a six game winning streak against the Bills and to take it a step for the Steelers one ten of eleven, including two in the playoffs between and sixteen. As you could imagine, the air between eight and nine ninety two belonged to the Buffalo Bills, winning seven of eight times during that span, really streaky series. Matt started playing games in nineteen seventy and during the seventies again, as you can imagine, Steve was only lost one of the six meetings. So it seems like it's just whichever teams up beats up on the team that's down. Yeah, exactly, exactly. I mean right now the Bills are up, but they don't have that advantage in the series like you know, like during the Jim Kelly era. Right now, the seventies obviously belonged to the Steelers, and uh, the Steelers had a nice stretch there after the Kelly year or where they were pretty dominant. Now, I always try to decide we're gonna talk about the offensive the defense first, and I like to lean towards which side of the ball is more you know, dominant, Which is going to give you bigger problems if you're the Steelers. It's crazy to think that the defense might actually be a little bit better than the Bill's offense right now, Yeah, I think it is, the more I think about it. I mean, they've won them the past two games, really right right, And I know the offense statistically is unbelievable, and Josh Allen might be the best player on the planet right now. Um, but they're kind of looking for receiver help not name Stefan Digs. And their old line isn't tremendous, you know. So if we're looking at areas that aren't phenomenal, maybe they're more of them on offense. But Alan makes up for everything, sman. We'll stick with the Bill's offense. They've outscored their opponents this year by fifty six points. The offense produces six yards per play, and they're converting fifty five percent of their third down attempts. They produce a hundred and sixty five more yards per game than their opponents this year. They are just running up and down the field, up and down the field, and they stop you too. I mean, all their stats. It's gonna get a little monotonous, folks. I apologize, but I mean both sides of the ball. It's other second in the league in this their third in the league, and this their first in this you know, I mean, but you're right. I mean that yards per game different rentuals stat says pretty much all you need to know about these guys. And their four and twelve yards per game is third most in the NFL. Twenty eight points per game is fifth most in the NFL so far. One impressive that that you pointed out in your notes that you sent me, though, Matt. Their third quarter is where they really botted their brand. Last week. They outscored Baltimore atend to nothing in the third quarter, brought them back into that football game. Their third quarter scoring is forty four for the offense. But even more impressively, the defense hasn't given up a single point so far in four three quarters worth of action. It's ridiculous. I mean, obviously it lends itself it's four games, but still it lends itself to this is a very well coached team which I can attest to, that makes halftime adjustments. You know, I mean, people don't think about halftime adjustments, but um, Apparently they're doing something right in the locker room when they go in, because they come out and just dominate teams, even when I mean, like you mentioned the Ravens game first half they weren't a great football team, came out and took it over. Now you were talking about Josh Allen, really, you know, is the deodorant that canaskan extench on an offense. They've produced a thousand, six hundred and fifty yards from scrimmage so far, one thousand, two hundred and twenty seven passing yards from Josh Allen, and he's attacked on a hundred eighty three rushing yards as well. Eighty five point five percent of the bills overall production offensively is due to Mr Josh Allen only justin Herbert has more passing yards and just three offenses attempt more passes per game than Buffalo. And then the number I heard since I sent you that was Alan has accounted for every one of their offensive touchdowns, so they have not handed the ball to somebody else who's running in. I mean, so he is either run or through every one of their offensive touchdowns, and they have a bunch of them, you know, So he's him and Lamar Jackson are the biggest portions of their respective offenses in the whole league. Now, expected points added is something that you like to reference a lot, and it's kind of like the war in the MV you know, it's just a metric to be able to determine. It stands for expected points at its e p. A. Allen's the only trailing Patrick Mahomes and Tuah as far as E. P. A is can, So he brings a lot to the table for this offense. You mentioned about how he's accounted for every single one of their touchdowns, never handed the ball off to get into the end zone. What's up with their running game? They've tried a lot to fix it. Singletary I think was a good addition to bring in, but it kind of feels like to me they use him more in the passing game and find more success swinging Singletary out and getting him the ball in space than you know, traditionally handing him off under center. You're right, and again that's another one that I've found since I sent you that document, and he's run more routes than any running back in the league. Very good. You nailed that one. I wouldn't have guessed that. And um, one thing that's kind of become clear the running back situation. I kind of liked Zack Boss coming out of school, but he's been forgotten. They really liked Dalvin Cooke's brother James, and he's been forgotten. So I think his first ever carry was a fumble, you know, and he's not good for McDermott and Barry mcdermot's doghouse right away. Then, um, but the last two weeks, if you look at the usage single, Terry's basically taken over the backfield. I don't love him, but he's in a good situation and he puts up numbers. I just felt like, you'd love to get this guy a really strong running game so he doesn't feel like he has to do it all on his own. But I kind of feel like they're trending that way, and it might not be, you know, a matter of we gotta get a great running back in here to take some of that workload off of Josh Allen. Josh Llan just might be like, I'm just gonna run the ball, like I trust myself more than anybody to carry this five six yards. Yeah, and he gets six or seven a pop or whatever like you mentioned, and he has punished punishing runs over a linebacker. He cam Newton can hurdle the safety if he has to. I think he's the most talented, most gifted quarterback in the league, including Pat my Homes. I mean, the size, the power, all that stuff. The arm strength is ridiculous. It's never a bad answer for him just to take things in his own hands. Now, Stefon Diggs by far the most productive receiver for Buffalo and Josh Allen's favorite target. How could he not be. I think he's having maybe one of the best years in the NFL at the receiver position. Justin Jefferson has something to say about that Minnesota as well. Right, But Diggs and Allen has been such a great connection. Uh thus far this year. UM he has the most receiving arts on the team with four hundred and six. He has fourteen more receptions than any other past catcher for Buffalo, and he has twenty more targets than any other pass catcher on the team. The separation between him and number two is for his yardage too is an ocean four oh six for Diggs, one fifty three FRIESA McKenzie who's their second leading receiver. And by the way, they don't want Isaia McKenzie to be their second leading receiver, maybe not have plans for that at the beginning of the year. Yeah, I mean amongst the elite teams, that's a problem area, you know. I mean, Gabe Davis was supposed to be there too. He's had some injuries. He's not getting targeted that much, but he's out there for every snap. Drops to Dent right, Um, they had an injury or Crowder got injured, he's gonna be out for this game. So Shakir the rookie, got some more run out of the slot as well. But they're looking for secondary receivers. You mentioned Singletary being very involved in the past in game, but it's really the Allen and Big show, you know, and and knocks the tight end. He's okay, but I mean he's he's not been an impact player for them, so they're looking for one more pass catcher. This is a team that, uh potentially might have O. B. J knocking at their door once he he was up and is ready to sign with him. And if if I was Buffalo, that's something I would look at. I was O. B. J I'd want to go there? How would you not want to catch passes from Josh Allen? Like we mentioned, Allen's the leading rusher, he's the leading passer, He's he's superman for this team. He's like Lamar Jackson in that sense where he really is the offense. Sixty nine of his seventy rushing yards last week Matt came after first contact, which I mean, that's just that's tough to deal with when the quarterback is not going to go down. Yeah, I mean it would worry me a little if I was the guy righting Josh Allen. He's huge checks too. I mean he takes a beating and reference Cam Newton. I mean he didn't last forever, but it's working now, so just keep rolling. Um. What of the other nuggets on there? Just offensively was they've had to use a lot of different bodies on their offensive line. You know that they're kind of searching right now who's their best five. There's been some injuries, so they have not been great run blocking, which shows you know, he's getting his yardage after content. They surrender that offensive line about two sacks per game so far this year, which isn't bad. It's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of the NFL. It's actually the exact same amount that the Steelers offensive line surrenders to their quarterbacks. But you say all the time on this show, any show that sacks as much as they are in offensive lines that are a quarterbacks, that no question, couldn't this kind of work in the other way though, where Alan might save the offensive line from a lot of sacks that they would have surrendered just because he's brushing off lineman and he's taking off for ten yards down the field. Kind of early careerer Ben type of stuff. Takes a beating hard to get on the ground, you know, extends plays. Um yeah, yeah, without a doubt. And the other thing he didn't mention there, they threw the football a ton, So yeah, it's two sacks game, but it's you know, it's different because they had passed so many times flipping things over to the defensive side of the ball. They do get after the quarterback quite a bit. That might be their biggest strength, and they're pretty much strong at all levels of the defense. Three point three sacks per game. That's the fifth best mark in the NFL so far, third best rushing defense in the NFL so far, they only give up eighty four yards a game on the ground, best passing defense in the entire league. Only have surrendered a hundred and fifty yards per game to start the NFL season, and their fourteen point five points per game are the second fewest in the NFL, only to San Francisco. I will say this about San Francisco the Rams. The defense looks great. The Rams offense hasn't been clicking Denver's abysmal at offense. The Bills have shut down the Ravens. They've shut down to a down in Miami. I think I put a little bit more weight to the Bills UH points per game allowed than the Niners at eleven, But eleven is impressive. It's very impressive. Doing a lot of this homework. The Bills and Niners are basically top two or in the top three or four, and basically every defensive statue you can you can you can get after um. A couple of unique things about the Bill's defense is they, and this is a McDermott thing, they live in Nickel. I mean, no matter what personnel you throw out there, they have five defensive backs on the field. And a lot of it's because they like Milano and Terrell Edmunds so much, because there's such versatile linebackers that they can Tremaine. Yeah. I mean he's the better of the two Edmonds, but they're both obviously respectable players. Um, but Mila has really come on. He's the leader of the defense. Yeah. And so they always have five defensive backs on the field to every down, linebackers that can do it all. And if you look at their defensive front, it's super impressive. Like tons of youngsters that are first and second round picks at Oliver Rousseau bash them on and on and on, and then then you know a little cherry on top. Let's go get the future Hall of Fame or that just came off a Super Bowl win. And Von Miller is to be having the Fountain of Youth effect on his career. He's been out standing all year long. That's the beauty of it is they have nine defensive lineman in a four man front that are like hockey lines, and Miller doesn't have to play every snap, but he's eating it up and they're always fresh and they just keep bringing him off the bench and all that pressure they create they're the lowest blitz team in the league. They blitz like eight percent of the time. It's a great formula for success. That's how you definitely want to get the job done defensively. And they're really healthy upfront to right now they are. Oliver's questionable, Jordan Phillips is questionable, but I think they're both going to go in this game against the Steelers. The injury problems come on the secondary, where you know, I look at each level of this defense and I say which one is the best. They're all so equally great to the front, but the secondary's got a lot of great names in there. But they're out without Micah Hyde and they're without Tradevious White. Those are two massive pieces of the defense. So really they're only you know guys that would be starting if everybody was healthy, would be Poyer and Jackson, the right cornerback in Jackson and strong safety and Jordan Player. Other than that, you know, Toron Johnson's got to step up the more Hamlin is trying to step up. And then, like you said, they got five corners or five dvs on the field all the time, So there's a trickle down effect to White and Hide being out. Oh, that's big for them. I mean there are probably two of their most valuable eight Buffalo Bills, you know, I mean Alan dig you know. It's a Pro Bowl TA and um player is leading the league interceptions too, by the way, and the Bill's defense has taken the ball away nine times through four games so far this year, so they definitely turned them over. Like you said, the rotation of their defensive lineman is just insane. Uh. They had nine different players last week. To kind of add some numbers to what you're saying, on the front line play between seventeen and forty nine snaps for the season. None of the defensive lineman for the Bills have played more than one fifty seven of a possible two thirty six snaps, and nine linemen have played more than sixties. So it's really just a elective effort on that defensive front. And like you said, you're gonna keep a lot of these guys fresh. They're gonna be better and better. And I have to imagine come December, come January, they'll be one of the best defensive fronts if they can stay healthy. Just from the fact that they're gonna be the freshest the friends in front. Yeah, and they can withstand an injury or two and they have you mentioned Phillips and Oliver have been out, but that you wouldn't know it. Um, it's in a very attractive position for a guy like von Miller. He doesn't have to play every snap, and it's very attractive to these younger guys because as they learn, they can get you know, mentored by Miller as well as you know, playing of the snaps. You know, most teams would have these these nine guys playing seventy of the snaps and these guys are playing fifty. I mean that is huge benefits for a Super Bowl run. Layton games, they always have a lead. Anyway, we mentioned how they pull away from teams in the third quarter. Then they unleashed his pass rush. I mean, it's a wonderful combination. The combo before we get to our key matchups, the combo of Tremaine Edmonds and Matt m On. We talked about it a little bit. You're saying Milano now has really emerges that straw that stars this defense's drink. Is it just everything with him? Great against the run, great coverage, He's just all around a well rounded player. And then you had Tremaine Edmonds on top of that. I think it's pretty much cut from that same cloth. Yeah, I mean they both do everything very well. Um, Milano isn't as big a name. He wasn't the you know, mid first round pick. He doesn't look like Edmonds, who is freaky you know, size, length, speed um with the Boston College Like yeah, right, right, right right. I mean they're they're great, um, complimentary pieces to one another though, and they're very key components of that defense. Like you mentioned, all three levels are great, and maybe the linebackers don't get quite as much pub as the others, but it's as good at pairing as there is in the league. Pretty much. Looking at our key matchups before we wrap things up here, our first one is Bill's quarterback Josh Allen vers Steelers linebacker Miles Jack. And I don't envy the gentleman on the Steelers side of that equation that all, he's gonna have to tackle Josh Allen a couple of times in this game, and I bet he's going to feel it on Monday morning. So I singled him out because he's gonna be on the field the most as a second level guy. He's gonna have to deal with Alan in the passing game, the run game. But it's all eleven. I mean, Alan is a massive problem, and I honestly think he's the hardest quarterback in the league to play against. Do you spy him? Like, can you even afford to do that? Because then you're taking a guy out of coverage and he's so smart he's going to pick up a spy. He's just gonna start funneling guys towards the middle of the field right behind Myles. Jack who's sitting there, can't pay ten yards away from him, following his every move Like it's it's that. I'm sure you do some of it, but that spy still has to get to him on the edge and get him on the ground. And easier said than like, I mean, Bush has had a decent year, but is he the guy you want to do that with. I mean, it's given away a lot in size. I don't have a great solution for it. I mean the best solution is try to possess the football and keep their offense off the field. But you know that's not easy either. I wouldn't feel too bad about I think there's about thirty two defensive coordinators in the NFL that don't have thirty one and don't have a good idea on how to stop jobs, and the other one doesn't have to and his lucky stars for that he only gets to do it during training camp. And that's pretty much it. Steeler's offensive tackles versus Bill's edge. Von Miller is our last key matchup. Big money spent to acquire von Miller, and I like how you termed him as just the cherry on top, because I think they would have been great without them, but it's certainly nice to have them. Yeah, I mean, they're all in. They realize they're the window here. What were they thirteen seconds away in in Kansas City last year? I think that was the number. I should said it off top of my head, but they that that very well. Could have been the best two teams in the league that day. And now they realized, hey, we're gonna go all in. They've built this thing from the ground up, nice and slow. I've got a ton of respect for this organization, coaching staff them, and good friends with Tomlin team building. And then they kind of uncharacteristically said let's go by Porsche to you know, built this house real gently, perfectly, and then let's spoil ourselves a little because we can afford it. The Steelers pay a visit to the Buffalo Bills this coming Sunday at one pm. Hopefully, like I said, the Steelers can snap their three game losing streak. Keys Matt Williamson, I'm Tom Operman. We'll be back again next week for another edition of the Advance Scout.

The Advanced Scout

Each week, former NFL scout and current co-host of SNR Drive Matt Williamson takes a look ahead at t 
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