Week 4 vs Jets

Published Sep 28, 2022, 12:00 AM
Matt Williamson and Tom Opferman look ahead to the Steelers upcoming opponent, the New York Jets.

We got some work to do. This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opferman and Mac Williams. It the one and two Steelers welcome the one and two Jets into Akershore Stadium at one pm this coming Sunday. Your Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a loss against the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football, and that really feels like it's months ago at this point. The Jets are one and two. Like I mentioned, they were handled last week by the Bangles. Matt this is the first time all season that the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored in the money line. Are in the spread that makes some sense, I mean some close ones. Obviously I thought the I was wrong, but I thought the Browns and Patriots spread were a little extreme. But again I was wrong about that. Um, they should be a favorite into Jets are. They'll struggle a little bit before we get into the serious history. These are two amazing stats with the Jets. New York is one of three teams that have had the ball trailing by double digit points in at least every single game so far this year. This is better than I that's the Jets have led on the scoreboard for just one single offensive snap the entirety of the season. I think that translates to about twenty seconds of seconds I saw that they isn't that nuts And that's the end of the Browns craziness game, you know, And that's basically it didn't even get up to a field goal lead to start, you know, start any game or anything like that. It's astounding when you think about it that they're one in two that they have run under their belt, because that's like the most unlikely win, yes, in the last twenty years. And on paper, they really might be the worst team in the NFL through the first three weeks of this season. Don't get they're wrong. There's a couple that have a case to be mad. Yeah, there's a lot of bad teams right now. I know a lot of people are down on the Steelers after two straight losses, but I'm telling you, if you look around the league, correct, a lot of people have it worse. First game between the Jets and the Steelers took place in November of nineteen seventy, with the Steelers winning that matchup. They would actually win the first nine games in this series before finally falling to the Jets in but if you're not Pittsburgh. After that, the Steelers went on to win another five games in a row. That means for the first fifteen times these teams met the Steelers one fourteen of the matchups. Most recently, the Jets got the better of the Steelers in New York, won the game sixteen to ten, but the Steelers have won four of the most recent six games. Overall, it's a twenty six lead including the playoffs for the Steelers, and of course we all remember one of those playoff wins, being that a f C championship game in the season to punch your ticket to play Green Bay in the Super Bowl. Let's start with the Jets offense. Matt turn the ball over four times last week against the Bengals. Their season differential is minus four. As the team, they possessed the ball twenty seven minutes and thirty six seconds last week. There twenty nine minutes and seventeen second average of time possession is pretty much right around league average. Uh, the Steelers just abysmo with reference there. Yeah, I think the big question with the Jets this week is the quarterback. Ye right now, recording this on Tuesday, we won't know for sure. Probably until tomorrow Wednesday, what's going to happen. But I think they're leaning towards that Wilson. I think he's gonna be the guy. I'm not sure he's the better option. You know, that might be good news. Yeah, who would you prefer. Wilson was abysmal as a rookie. I mean that's last we've seen. He's got a lot of talent. He was a second overall pick just a year ago. Um My concerns with Wilson coming out, and they really bore true was when you play at b y U and I learned to spent my year in the league with with the Browns. All those offensive linemen are like twenty five years old mission you know, they go on their missions and stuff, and then they come back and they're they're grown men. And Wilson played, you know, not a great level of competition. They don't play great. They don't play Bama and l s U. You know, so he had all day to throw and could do you know, great things in that environment. Well that's not the case here, and he's really struggled dealing with the speed of the game. Could he you know, turn his career around in year two? Absolutely. I mean Aikman and Peyton Manning and guys like that had awful years too, But there's no signs to show that's on the horizon, that bad rookie year that you were mentioning nine touchdown passes with eleven interceptions thrown, only averaging a hundred and seventy nine and a half yards per game and completing just fifty five point six percent of his passes. Flacco, on the other hand, little deceptive start to the year because he's fifth in the NFL as far as passing yard is just concerned, but there's only two quarterbacks with a lower yards per completion Kyla Murray and stop me if you are surprised about this one. But Mitch Drabinsky is also down there in the basement. Yeah, And first off, the Jets have really good young weapons. I mean they got three receivers question, yeah, tight end, it's involved. They got two backs and they through the ball a ton, you know. I mean, will they do that with Wilson? Who's to say? But flat go through a lot but short stuff, you know, And and he's been around the block, I mean obviously, Um so it's hard to guess what like their run pass ratio will be with a new quarterback, especially in a quarterback that can run the balls. Yeah, right, right, he's an athlete. Joe isn't. But um, this isn't really where you're going. But since we brought up how how often they throw the football, they've run a lot of plays on offense. And to me, that's the biggest thing, and you touched on it earlier. That is killing the Steelers right now is the time of possession is horrible for Pittsburgh. The number of plays the defense has to play through three games is horrible and you just can't win that way. So if the Jets win this game, my hunches they run seventy plays and the defense looks tired at the end, and you know, and they get a break or whatever, kind of like the formula has been to beat the Steelers in the previous two games. Right, good point, most past happy team in the league. Like you're saying, they love to throw the ball. They passed the ball seventy four point of their snaps. The Raiders are the only other team in the NFL that's at a clip of sev or higher and they're struggling mightily our season as well. Before we get to those trio of wide receivers. As you mentioned, they've never had the lead for more than one place twenty two seconds of game time. When I see that, you passed the ball a lot, and I think Pittsburgh Steelers, I think a lot of opportunities to sack the quarterback. Three sacks surrendered per games so far for the Jets. That's seventh most in the league. So offensive line not exactly exactly, you know, covering themselves in glory for New York and Joe Flacco is a bit of a statue back there. Zach Wilson, if he plays his awareness ain't the best. It could be as good sack name for the Steelers even without number ninety. Yeah, that's a good call. Um. I do like their guards a lot. They spent big money in draft picks on on Vera Tucker and Tomlinson, so they've put a lot of resources in the old line. But McKay Beckton's out. Um, the tackles aren't great centers. Okay, Um, you throw that much, you're gonna get hit. And I think the Steelers can rush the past or without with or without what obviously with um. So yeah, that's a good call, I would think that the quarterback was down a few times in this one. Steels have already allowed four wide receivers to reach at least ninety five yards receiving in a game this season. Jamaar Chase Nelson, Agholor, Jacoby Myers and Amari Cooper. Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis make up the big three for the Jets receiving corps. Uh some potential good news for Steeler fans though, although not good news for the Jets or Garrett Wilson's sake, as he left the game hurt against last week against the Bengals, so potential that he might not be in there. Even if he's not, I think Elijah Moore and Corey Davis are more than capable wide receivers. You just said this a couple of minutes ago, but it's it's a pretty formidable trio that has a lot of potential. Yeah. I mean, they gave Davis a lot of money two years ago. Elijah Moore was an early second round pick. I love the player, I think he does everything well. And Wilson, I think was the eighth or ninth pick in the draft this year and the little we've seen him in the NFL, he kind of looks like a star already. Um does most of his workout of the slot, although he's more proficient outside the numbers. But it's working. I mean No. Three or been really good. And Tyler Conklin, the tight end two, has definitely thrown himself into the mix. Eight or eight catches last week for eighty four yards against the Bengals, on the field for sixties seven of a possible seventy eight snaps. It's funny, you know they signed use Online the off season from the Bengals. He was not a huge part of the Bengals offense, but he made some splash plays and you think he'd be more involved in the Jets offense. And I think it's a good thing for their sake that he's the number two on their depth chart and Conklin's more the guy that's in the mix. They've pretty deep tight end room. I think he has the third most targets amongst all tight ends. He's playing extremely high number snaps. Conklin. That is better athletes than people think. You probably don't know the name and you say, oh, he must be a blocking tight end. No, he can run and he can make plays. Um again, will that usage keep up with Wilson That's a tough call. Yeah, he's been targeted at least seven times in every game this year. Only two tight ends, like you said, have more targets on the season than Conklin. But he the average one point five yards per route run, which is pretty low for an NFL tight end. But it's also makes a lot of sense when you think that Joe Flacco is just not pushing the ball down the field. So is it a bit of a mirror image kind of thing from the Steelers defense? Is this like the same offense they've been seeing in practice or in a way right, Like it's a short a lot of good skill, a lot of good young skill. Um, some questions on the old line, but some also, you know, questions a quarterback. Yeah, I guess there is some similarities. Interesting to me that the Jets aren't really running the ball that much either, since they invested a draft picking Breeze Hall in early draft picking breesew Michael Carter I think has been a decent player, but you know, yeah, they play Hall played forty two snaps. Carter saw action on thirty six plays. Last week. So they're splitting pretty evenly between the two of them. They're just not really utilizing them that much, not as runners. They're catching a lot of balls. Um Hall was the first draft, first running back drafted. I thought he was clearly the best back in this class this pas last week. The numbers don't really bear it out, but the film in the situation does. I think they're starting to give Hall more and more and more. He's a more explosive runner. He's more of the kind of reminds me of Levy on Bell just in terms of usage. You know, his style is a lord a sort of similar to he's a stop, start, patient guy. Um So, I think they're starting to trust him more and more. Yeah. He averaged four point nine yards per carry last week on just eight carries. Probably gonna get a little bit more than eight carries this week, and as the season goes on, like you said, they'll probably make the transition to him being that number one guy for the Jets offense in the backfield. If I were the Jets, I try to run the ball. I mean, I know it's not really in your DNA, but no matter who the quarterback is, stealers have been really struggling us out there in the past couple of weeks, and I don't got Nick Chubb, but I think it's worth a shot. I think that would be my approach if I were them, because I want to, you know, protect Wilson as much as humanly possible, and you trade it up for halls first back drafted. I said, they got a pair of guards that will move people, and I'm not arguing with you at all. The run defense obviously is a sore spot amongst our listeners right now, and I get that, but I almost feel like I'm mad at myself because I didn't predict. I thought they'd hold up better than they did against the Browns a week ago. But these are the facts. I mean, going into the Browns game, the defensive played a ridiculous number of snaps through two games. Then you have a super short week on the road against the best running team in the league, the best ball carrier in the league, the best backup ball carrier in the league, the best set of guards, and an elite offensive line. Like, what do you think what's going to happen? Did you think the Steelers at thirty nothing? And you know, so it kind of saw that one coming, and I should have been more on top of it. Flipping over to the Jets defense, twenty seven points per game allowed, which is in the bottom third of the league. There are one under five yards yielded on the ground in two thirty one surrendered through the airs. It's actually kind of right in the middle for both of those as far as the league breaks down right now. But when you look at the Jets and what opposing wide receivers are able to do to them, the Jets allowed nine point seven yards per target, which is thirty one in the NFL, and a league high twelve point five percent touchdown right to the position. So if invested in that secondary, it's not a bad secondary on paper, but it's getting torched in the early onset from wide receivers and it's learning. You know, they're the defensive front is okay. The linebackers aren't great. The secondaries of work in progress. They used to two first round picks on defense, Sauce Gardener and Jermaine Johnson late in the first round. Traded back up for him, and both those guys have been good, but their rookies. Um. Gardeners interesting to me in that he did really well against Jamar Chase last week, and but then Higgins and Boyd killed him, you know, so that it's just that they're still putting a team together, you know. Yeah. It's really pick your poison with those bangles too, as the Steelers are well aware. I wonder if he follows Deonte though I haven't given that much loot, but that that could be something they try. They do do a decent job against the run, and last week, especially Joe Mixon only had twenty four yards on his dozen carries. Bengals just average two point five yards per rush New York yielding just three point seven yards per carry on the ground. So you know, just on the surface, it looks like the plan of attack should be through the air, which I kind of like because you want to force the Steeler's offense into pushing the ball down the field war and just like last week with the Browns, this is a favorable matchup that you can do that. And I mean, look at what they I'm not saying you're the Bengals on offense, but it was totally a get right game for them offensively, especially through the air and Joe Burrow against this jet secondary. Maybe the Steelers can use it as somewhat of that same thing. It's it's a good viewpoint. I agree with you. You would hope that the Steelers look at this thing and say, I know we're having some offensive struggles, but we're still the better team. Yes, let's take the fight to them. Let's dictate to our opponent. Let's make them cover our four or five you know, receivers playing time and time again. I think they should be able to protect reasonably well against the Jets and Mitch you know, Sacre Swim. Yeah to what you were saying about the protection against the Jets. Sealer's offensive line has been pretty good protection wise all year, and the Jets don't have anyone on their team with more than one and a half sacks so far in the season. They've only gotten five quarterback sacks in just three games on the year. They blitched Joe Burrow on just ten occasions. Last week. On those ten places, burroke seven pass nineteen yards and two touchdowns, so really burned them the very few times that they decided to get some pressure on him. They can't pressure the quarterback at all, really, so with the offensive line doing better than expecting and pass pro in a very lackluster pass rush. I think you're fine against this Jets team. Another you know point in the basket of passed the ball against. Yeah, And the way they're designed on defense. Robert salaa head coach, came over from the Niners, who put more resources into defensive lineman than anyone out there. So they want to rush for and you know, play it softer on the back end and get after you like, you know, like the Niners do with Bosa. And they have quinnin Williams and they paid lost in and they traded up for Johnson, but they don't have the Niners front to pull that off. And as you mentioned, blitzing didn't go well. The Jets opponents are scoring just under ten more points per game than New York is producing. They've been outscored by twenty nine points. Only Tennessee has the worst point differential in the a f C. And a lot of heavy lifting in the Titans favor is from that Bills below out the point they really skewed their point differential. I look at the defense, Matt, and it's kind of improving. I guess, just if anything, you have some recognizable names or some guys that you yeah, these guys you recognize from college that you think, yeah, this guy could blossom into a pretty decent NFL player. I don't know if the results are there yet, but at least there's a foundation there. No, I do think this is a strong front office overall. I mean, they had to really hit rock bottom that they're building both lines. It's just gonna take a while, you know. I mean some of these young guys Gardner, Johnson, you know, Breecee Hall, you know Quincy Williams or Quincy Wilson, um, all these early picks the last couple of years, namely you know Wilson the quarterback in particular. If if the quarterback plays all right, I do think this team has a future, but we'll see. Ye. The roster definitely has some bones to it. Yeah, yeah, it's c. J. Mosley is still a straw that starts to drink. On the defense, they wanted to be Sauce Gardner, I'm sure sure, Yotentually I would say it's Quentin Williams, the defensive tackle. You see him get into it, yeah half of the weekend. Yeah, I've been Yeah, he is a a really talented another super early pick. Mosley has never really been the same since going to New York, but that seems to happen to some free agents as they signed. Yeah, you're understent right. Mosley has had injuries. I would have to study him more to see where he's at, but he hasn't been a splash player for a while. Before we get out of here, some key matchups that you've highlighted in this game, Brown's wide receiver Garrett Wilson versus whoever the Steelers cornerback is lined up opposite of him. Again, Wilson might not play in this game, but he sound like Withers gonna play, is gonna play, So that would fall in Wallace or Sutton most likely to get most of the duties against him. He's mostly though any anything, so Sutton if the Steelers are in their usual defense, or maybe it's Molette, if it's Sutton and on the outside, I know, I I don't. I think Wilson is a star in the making, but again, how how healthy is he? And then the Steelers wide receivers versus a mods sauce gardener And you mentioned you'd be interested to see if he follows Deonte Johnson around the field. If you're the d C for the Jets, Matt, do you think that's the strategy you'd employ. If you can cut off the head of Deonta Johnson, you can maybe suffocate the rest of this receiving corps. Maybe it could be a breakout game for pickings though I mean that now, yeah, I mean boy did a big game out of the slot play pools, almost exclusively a slot guy. Now, the Gardeners a remarkable prospect and he was very impressive against you Marches, so they may have a dude there. Steelers Jets one pm at Akershore Stadium for Matt Williamson. I'm Tom Offroman. We'll be back again next week with another edition of the Advanced Scout, taking a look ahead to the Buffalo Bills,

The Advanced Scout

Each week, former NFL scout and current co-host of SNR Drive Matt Williamson takes a look ahead at t 
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