The Advanced ScoutWe got some work to do.
This is the advanced scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson. You do. It's called Indianapolis last Saturday, dropping their third straight game of the year. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals, who come to town on Saturday, have won three straight games. Sinnati has been outscored by four points compared to a minus fifty seven scoring differential for the Steelers this year. Pittsburgh is five hundred at home and the Bengals are five hundred on the road. So these are two teams really going in opposite directions here, Matt.
One hundred percent.
And just to pull the curtain back, I mean, we record this after you and I do different stuff. And I was there's about a five minute break where I sit in the lobby here at the station and I fiddle with my stats or whatever, and I found this one right before we came in. I emailed it to you probably have chances to get it in. But since these teams played in Week twelve, which not that long ago, right, the Bengals are sixth in the NFL in scoring on forty eight point six percent of the drives.
Steelers are thirtieth.
So you talk about teams going offsite directions since we've seen them last. Browning is settled in the Steelers, haven't.
I mean reminding people from the last time these teams met. The Bengals had just ten first downs compared to twenty two by the Steelers. Pittsburgh was eight of seventeen on third downs compared to two of ten for Cincinnati. The Steelers produced one hundred ninety nine more yards of offense. They averaged six point two more yards per play. Are they averaged six point two yards per play compared to since he's five point four. They possessed the ball for thirty seven minutes. I mean, they dominated the Bengals ever since then. The Bengals offense is really woke up. It It looks like what the Bengals offense was gonna like. We assume the Bengals offense was gonna get on track this year. We just tinkured number nine was going to be pooling the strings and instead it's number six.
So again, that was only week twelve, and that seems like unrecognizable for both teams because Cincinnati's offense has been extremely efficient, as you mentioned, they're on a winning streak. Steelers have crumbled in all regard since then and are on a losing streak. But I'm not trying to blow smoke, But can't you reincarnate the Week twelve game?
Maybe?
I tone we're gonna take in this next you know, twenty minutes or so doing this podcast, you know, you kind of know the game plan to beat these guys. Can you go out there and execute it again? And it's not like it's the changeover between Canada and Faulkner Joels, because this was Faulkner in sulivn's first game exactly against the Bengals. Despite the Bengals, you know, being eight and six, the Steelers seven and seven, still alive in the playoff race, the Bengals more so than the Steelers, especially if they win this game. Man, I kind of feel like both these teams are gonna miss.
You know.
The Steelers faced LEA six, Yeah right, and they face the leagu's sixth most difficult schedule the rest of the way, while Cincinnati faces the eighth most difficult and the Bengals are slated to face the most difficult run of opposing defense is the rest of the way in the league. So I think the Bengals. This is a great story. They rallied. I thought they were gonna quitment bro got hurt, and they didn't. They proved me wrong there. But I think, like you said, tie breakers, they don't have them in their back pocket and the schedules just too much of a bear for them. I mean, the Steelers have just dug themselves into a hole where they need a lot of help.
Now, I mean I was flat out wrong.
But four or five weeks ago I buried the Bengals on a lot of different media outlets.
I need too.
I thought they would quit.
Yeah, I mean I just looked at it and been like and.
The Steelers game, their first outing out there was proof of that.
Yeah, I was like, boom. I mean, I'm right, it's not their year. Unfortunately, they wasted a Borough year and I was wrong. I mean they are I give back to that organization a lot of credit and the reason that they won't miss the playoffs.
I don't think we'll be browning, you know. To be very honest with you, I mean.
It's just they just dug too big a hole early in the season with tie breakers.
A quick reminder of the series history between these two teams before we dig into the offense and defensive side of the ball for the Bengals. The series began in nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads the series sixty nine and thirty nine all time. Two of those games occurred in the postseason O six and in sixteen. Steelers won both of those contests in memorable fashion. Cincinnati has won four of the last six meetings, but the Steelers won in Cincinnati Week twelve of this season. Like we mentioned before, that Pittsburgh was won an eleven game winning streak. Cincinnati has won thirteen of the forty nine games between these divisional rivals that have been played in the two thousands. Mike Tomlin is twenty five and eleven vers Cincinnati, including that playoff win in twenty sixteen. Over the past ten seasons, Cincinnati is three and two if Joe Burrow is their quarterback against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are two and thirteen without Burrow in the series, and that includes Jake Browning. Yeah, in a recent meeting just a few weeks back, Let's take a look at this Bengals offense that has been surging lately. You know, I'll give you these numbers but they're kind of skewed because of how great they've been lately. They're twenty first in the total of season.
They've put a lot of stock in Yeah.
Yeah, thirteenth in passing yards. That's actually improved a lot with Browning as well. Thirty first in rushing the football. You know, that's a little deceiving too, Matt, because they're running football a little bit better now and.
Their passing game has become an extension of the run game where they're I know, Jamar Chase probably won't play in this game, but they'll throw him a ball at the line of scrimmage.
You'll break three tackles.
They're throwing the backs and tight ends a very high percentage of the time, where they didn't ever with Burrow. So it's much more of a ball control play it close to the vest and he's been very accurate. But still the running games far from great.
Well. One thing that's been consistent is they don't turn the ball over. They have twelve giveaways and it's tied for the fewest in the NFL, and that hasn't changed since Browning has come in. He's protected the football.
Yeah, I mean, the Steelers for the year are right there with the Bangals, But the Bengals have been phenomenal in turnover stuff. Yeah, without question.
For the season, Bengals offense average five point two yards per play, but that's been up to six point three yards per play over the past three games, which for context, has put them in the category of elite offenses in the NFL. Only the Commanders and Jets throw the ball this season at a higher rate than Cincinnati. Those are two weird teams to be throwing the.
Ball a lot losing a lot.
That's true, they got it, they're chasing, But the Bengals are only throwing the ball on fifty seven percent of their snaps the past three weeks. They were losing a lot against the Vikings on Saturday, so they had to throw to get back into the game. But I think that's what you were kind of just saying. You know, they're using their running game a lot more to set up the passing game. It's not just pass pass pass.
It's just been very Browning friendly, I mean, and he's very accurate, he's not bashful, and it's been efficiency is a word I keep using, and you'll probably psyche this, but I mean, of all the quarterbacks with at least one hundred passing attempts. Browning is only second to Brock Party in yards per attempt, in passer rating, and they're not asking to do a lot of difficult stuff, but it's just efficient, efficient, deficient.
And to even expand on that, over the past three games the offense has been in has put out eighty fifth percentile, sixty fifth percentile, and seventy third percentile EPA per play performances. Jake Browning he had a positive EPA per play in each of those games. That he's second amongst all quarterbacks during that time frame behind Rock Party, Party Party. Who is I think if you're going to give the award to a quarterback, which I think this year more than ever, you might be able to give MVP to someone not a quarterback. But if you're going to give played last right but CMC two yea. But if you're gonna give it to a quarterback, which they usually default to these days, he's the frontrunner right now. So this is the only guy that's been better than Browning. He's the guy who's probably gonna win the MVP this year.
Yep, Yeah, I mean that's a historically great offense in San Francisco. And it's only three weeks, but the Bengals are doing some of that stuff now real quick. Jamar Chase is still the scariest guy out there. He's their best player, not Saturday.
And if he's not going to be in the mix, which seems.
Unlikely, yeah, it doesn't seem good.
Everybody is asked to do a lot more, even if they don't throw the balls once.
They used to.
Browning threw for two hundred twenty seven yards his first start against the Steelers in Week twelve, but last week he threw for three hundred and thirty four yards against Minnesota. Bengals as a team have the lowest average depth of target in the league by good margin. Their average pass travels just six point four to three yards downfield. Kansas City is next at six point eight three, But just isolating on Browning, his average depth of target comes in a little bit less than that, even at six point three yards downfield. Over his past six games this year, two very explosive offenses cited there, the Bengals and the Chiefs just not really pushing the ball down the field through the air.
No again, it's just efficient, you know, And they're getting stuff after the catch, spreading the ball around to four tight ends like the Colts two running backs. We know who the receivers are, and you know Higgins is healthy finally too, which is a good thing, but Chase isn't.
Twelve different Bengals receivers were targeted last week, so Browning is not shy at letting everybody get a bite of this apple. You mentioned Jamar Sace. He has five hundred and eighty one receiving yards. That's more than any other Bengals player this season. But you know he's not looking likely to play in this game. So that means to Higgins slides up to that number one role, Tyler Boyd slides up to that number two role. Both made massive plays last week against the Vikings, Boyd to set up the game winning field going overtime, and we all have seen the Higgins play to get the game to over at this point. And so there's still stud receivers that you're dealing with.
They are, they are, and I would imagine Porter will see a lot of Higgins. Higgins hasn't been himself up until very very recently, so looking at his cumulative stats for the season, just aren't fair.
You think that's a health related thing. Finally getting healthy good for him too, because I mean, you know, ere agency, he's gonna need to make some money in this offseason, and you know, dealing with an injury. Proving that he's not injured going into the offseason always helps.
If he could finish strong, he'd be set up really nicely.
That you mentioned they have four different tight ends this season, and I've played between one hundred and seventy eight and three hundred and sixty two offensive snaps. Are any of them really weapons that you have to worry about sample or of Smith? I mean, I guess if you're the Steelers and you're so depleted at safety and inside linebacker, anybody can play tight end, right, I'd be worried about.
It, didn't We have this exact conversation actually called.
Some Milalley Cox strolling into the end zone.
YEA mean, so all tight ends are scary. None of them on paper are particularly scary. But they have four that they use, much like Indianapolis, And who's to say the Steelers can stop any of them with their linebackers in safeties.
And it's surprising, you know, for the season long to see the Bengal struggling to run the football because Joe Mixon, you know, is a pretty solid back. Stills are great nose for the end zone though, Man, he still finds you know, he's a good at anytime touchdown score Ben if you want to put that part or that prop bet down. He's getting a little bit more involved though in the game plan a little bit, and Chase Brown as well, especially out of the backfield in the passing game.
One hundred percent. Again, it's ball control, it's efficiency. Brown has fresh legs. I always like to look at rookie running backs this time of year that have done very little. They kind of burst on the scene with a lot of vigor and fresh legs, and Brown qualifies for that. Mixing is not quite what it used to be, but very talented player.
Looking at the Bengals on the defensive side of the ball, their thirtieth in total defense, thirte undern eightywo yards allowed per game, twenty seventh against the pass, twenty eighth against the run, their twentieth in points per game allowed, and they were the defense that allowed the Steelers to end a historic streak of not reaching four hundred yards earlier this season. So you know about this defense. If you're a Steelers fan, it can be had. It's not a very strong defense. Their biggest threat is they can take the ball away from you. But if you can play you know, some ball control football, you should be able to move it up and down the field. And you should know that you should be able to move it up and down the field, because you just did it like five weeks ago.
Yeah, and even then a couple of weeks ago. I couldn't quite put my finger on why did this defense go so much backwards from last year. I mean they have two new safeties from a year ago, but a highly respected defensive coordinator basically running it back and they went from like a top ten defense to a bottom three or four defense.
But I like the personnel, Matt, Yeah, they're not. We talked about this last time we did this. Guy Hubbard and Hendrick sand and Jermaine Pratt and Logan Wilson is an underrated inside linebacker, I mean.
Helping we know about the UKA and at all levels they're not.
Dax Hill is a good pick. Yeah, not you know, a bus by any stretch.
They did lose DJ readers since then. That's a big deal for them. He's a high quality interior player. And the other stat I found in the lobby before we hit record was they're allowing the most yards per play on first downs and they're also allowing the most plays per game of twenty or more yards. So that's killed them too. You know, they're always behind the sticks and they're allowing big chunk plays. Now that's not exactly the Steelers forte, right, but if you could hit Pickens over the top twice in this game or something along, if they're vulnerable, maybe you pick at that scab.
A little bit.
Yeah, No, defense is facing a higher average depth of target nine point three nine yards on average than Cincinnati this season, So yeah, teams like to attack this defense down the field. Pat Fryremouth had the best game of his season. I'll even venture to say the best game of his career. Maybe Matt nine catches in one hundred and twenty yards against the Bengals. Howd he get him more involved into this game plan? Because he had that great game against the Bengals and he pulled the Houdini act, and you haven't really heard from him since it was that. I guess we'll find out if it was just so matchup specific against Cincinnati, or if they really just struggle utilizing tight ends in this offense.
I don't have that answer. It frustrates me, to be honest with you. I mean, Friar Moose's numbers are really scary if you take that game out. I mean, I think he had thirteen targets leading up to that game. Has done very little since.
But you see it. I mean, you've seen his career. He's a good football player.
Like your scout's eye is telling you, like, this guy can be a contributor and he's the starter in the NFL.
Yeah, and he saw it in that game, but only that game, And that's frustrating to me.
Steelers ran for one hundred and fifty three yards against Cincinnati earlier this season, the average two point eight yards per carry in Indianapolis. That produced just seventy four rushing yards. But the Bengals allow one hundred and forty three yards on the ground to Minnesota last week. The Colts front really impressed a lot of people. I think after the Steeler game, it's not as formidable against the run in Cincinnati as it no.
And I will say the I sold the Colts front seven short a week ago and we talked about him, and they are a very athletic, active group. I don't think this is as good, but we mentioned their players. They're not bad in their front seven at all on paper.
No, they're not. Trey Hendrickson I think leads the charge with that for the Bengals. Yeah, fifteen sacks on the season, He's only one sack behind TJ. Watt. I mean, he's great, flirting with the league lead and winning that category this year. No one else on the team has more than five sacks, so Hendrickson is really, you know, the life blood when it comes to sacking the quarterback. But they average two point seven sacks per game. It's almost right around the middle of the NFL, so I mean they can get after the quarterback. It's a lot of one man show. But still, with the Steelers giving up four sacks last week to Indianapolis, that's something they got to be conscious of.
No doubt.
I thought the Steelers oh line played very poorly in all facets, especially as the game went on, and the right side in particular. But damn Moore, in a tough game, you can't take this group lightly. You can't think anybody lightly for where the Steelers was in.
So the Steelers were so successful on third downs against Cincinnati when they played in Week twelve. Since then, on this three game losing streak, they are combined eleven for thirty seven on third downs. I come in, I'm doing all these podcasts after that Bengals game, and I'm like, that's the one thing that I like the most of us. Four hundred yards is great. I know they didn't score that many points whatever, Maybe that comes later. Converting on third down finally and it's just gone away. The well's gone dry again.
Yeah, And since then they've turned the ball over a lot more, and you know, all these things are going handed.
Like this is a team you can get a lot of first downs.
Yeah exactly. I mean it's there for the taking if you can do it.
All right, let'shigh let some key matchups before we get out of here. Bengals wide receiver to Higgins versus Steelers corner Joey Porter Jr. I love this part of the show pretty much every week now with us. It is because it's just identifying who's Porter gonna follow this week, and it's an exciting matchup. We're kind of robbed of the Michael Pittman Joey Porter Junior matchup last week because of the injury that Pittman suffered unfortunately. Yeah, how do you think he did before that point? And then are you excited to see him against you know, another bigger body type receiver like Higgins.
Yeah, Pittman put up really good numbers, and I will say this is an Eagles thing that Stichan does. They're really good at RPO stuff, rub routes, pick routes, stuff like that that gave the Steelers trouble.
In general, you know, and.
Like a good offensive mind. He's like, I'm not just gonna let Joey Porter Junior take my guy out of it. I'm gonna get Joey Porter Junior off of my guy.
And they did a good job of that.
I don't think Porter played poorly, although almost everyone the team played poorly, right, but we didn't get to see it start to finish, as you mentioned, But I'm with you.
I mean, I think.
Body type style of play, this is a good matchup for Porter.
And then we mentioned the Steelers giving up four sacks against that Colts front last week. A lot of players on the Bengals side of the ball on defense that can get after the quarterback. Dan Moore versus Trey Hendrickson is definitely one to keep an eye on, especially because Dan Moore in pass pro. I think he's kind of taking a step backwards as the season's gone on.
I agree.
I mean, I thought he fared better than expected early in the season against the Bosos and Garretts and Crosby.
With all those thuds that they had.
Y yeah, yeah, I mean the whole team isn't playing well as we know, but more in particular is playing some of his worst football right now.
Steelers and Bengals kick it off for the home finale at Akrosurer Stadium four point thirty on Saturday afternoon. For Matt Williamson, I'm Tom Opferman. Thanks has always for giving us a listen, and we'll talk to you next week on the Advance Scout
